Friday's Top Action
BOISE STATE BRONCOS (2-1) at VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (1-2)
Scott Stadium - Charlottesville, VA
Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Boise State -2.5
Boise State finishes up a tough non-conference schedule on Friday night when it visits a hungry Virginia squad.
The Broncos breezed to a 52-0 victory over FCS Idaho State last Saturday, but the win came at a cost, as starting QB Ryan Finley was lost for eight weeks with a broken bone in his ankle. Both sophomore QB Tommy Stuart and freshman QB Brett Rypien played admirably in relief last week, and both will likely see snaps against much greater competition on Friday. The Cavaliers have played a brutal non-ACC slate with a season-opening trip to UCLA (34-16 loss) before losing a 34-27 heartbreaker to visiting Notre Dame. Although they picked up their first win last week, they didn't play very well, eking out a 35-29 victory against 22-point underdog William & Mary (FCS school).
These schools are meeting for the first time ever on Friday, and most of the betting trends favor the Broncos. These include Boise State's 30-10 ATS mark after ATS losses in two of its previous three games and also Steve London's 2-13 ATS record as the Virginia head coach when the line is +3 to -3. However, in the past three years the Cavaliers are 7-2 ATS as a home underdog and 7-3 ATS in non-conference games.
In addition to Finley, the Broncos have three other players questionable for Friday's matchup with undisclosed injuries in WRs D.J. Dean and Rick Smith, and DE Gabe Perez. Virginia remains without four key players with WRs T.J. Thorpe (collarbone) and Umar Muhammad-Wyatt (knee) out indefinitely and OLs Eric Tretlow and Jake Fieler done for the season with undisclosed injuries.
Both of Boise State's backup quarterbacks looked strong last week, as former JUCO transfer Tommy Stuart was 9-of-13 for 69 yards and a touchdown, but absorbed three sacks. Freshman Brett Rypien was a near-perfect 8-of-9 for 126 yards and led his team to four scoring drives (3 TD, 1 FG) in four possessions. Both signal callers realize the team has a great receiving duo in senior WR Shane Williams-Rhodes (18 rec, 173 yds) and junior Thomas Sperbeck (12 rec, 140 yds.), who have both curiously have not found the end zone yet.
Part of that is due to the ground game rolling in the red zone with 10 rushing touchdowns. Seven of them have gone to sophomore RB Jeremy McNichols, who has rushed for 204 yards on a subpar 3.8 YPC. Junior RB Devan Demas has been electric with 8.8 YPC on his 12 attempts. The Broncos defense has been on the field for only 27:51, thanks to a run-stop unit holding opponents to 46 YPG on 1.7 YPC. The passing defense has surrendered 240 YPG, but opposing quarterbacks are completing only 54.5% of their passes.
Virginia's offense continues to revolve around junior RB Taquan Mizzell, who leads the team with 155 rushing yards (4.0 YPC) and is second in receiving yards with 233, thanks largely to an 80-yard TD reception last week. He has taken the pressure off steady junior QB Matt Johns, who has completed 67% of his throws for 790 yards (8.2 YPA), 6 TD and 3 INT. Johns' completion percentage and passing yardage have both climbed in each of his three games.
Senior WR Canaan Severin (19 rec, 264 yds, 1 TD) has been his best receiver, using his 6-foot-2, 205-pound frame to outmuscle defenders. Severin was incredible in the near-upset of Notre Dame when he caught 11 passes for 153 yards. The defense has not produced a single takeaway in three games so far, and has allowed a hefty 5.1 YPC on the ground. The Cavaliers haven't been much better through the air either, allowing 261 YPG on 64% completions and 7.5 YPA. They are hoping the inexperienced Boise State quarterbacks will not have the same success that opponents have enjoyed so far in 2015.
STANFORD CARDINAL (2-1) at OREGON STATE BEAVERS (2-1)
Reser Stadium - Corvallis, OR
Kickoff: Friday, 10:00 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Stanford -15.5
No. 21 Stanford tries to build on an impressive victory when it travels to Oregon State on Friday night.
The Cardinal were 9.5-point underdogs last week at USC, but rolled up 474 total yards in an impressive 41-31 win. The Beavers also won comfortably last week, taking down San Jose State by a 35-21 score and easily covering the 6-point spread.
Stanford has won five straight matchups in this series (SU and ATS) with the average score being a wide margin of 32 to 12. The Cardinal won a 38-14 laugher at home last year, but the contest was much closer in Corvallis in 2013 when Oregon State fell by a 20-12 score.
While David Shaw has led Stanford to a 9-1 ATS record after a game where it has committed no turnovers, the Beavers benefit from the fact that home underdogs of 14.5+ points returning 8+ offensive players facing a conference foe returning 5 or less defensive starters are 48-18 ATS (73%) since 1992.
The only recent significant injury for either team is Cardinal DL Nate Lohn, who is listed as questionable with an undisclosed ailment.
Stanford's offense did very little in the season opener at Northwestern (6 points, 240 total yards), but has cranked out 72 points and 965 total yards over two straight victories. QB Kevin Hogan has been outstanding in these two wins, throwing for 620 yards, 5 TD and 0 INT.
Although he injured his left foot in the win over USC, Hogan is listed a probable to start on Friday. That's not good news for the Beavers, who allowed Hogan to throw for 277 yards (10.3 YPA) and 2 TD while rushing for 39 more yards (9.8 YPC) and another touchdown in last year's rout.
A big part of his success has been electric freshman RB Bryce Love who has a team-high 156 yards on just three catches (52.0 avg) including a 93-yard TD grab two weeks ago versus UCF.
Hogan's favorite targets are junior TE Austin Hooper (10 rec, 135 yds) and sophomore RB Christian McCaffrey, who has a team-high 12 grabs for 119 yards. McCaffrey also leads the team in rushing at 239 yards, which includes a hefty 115 last week versus USC. McCaffrey opened the scoring in last year's matchup with Oregon State with a 41-yard TD reception.
Defensively, Stanford struggled a bit last week in allowing 31 points and 427 total yards, but the Trojans have a much more explosive offensive than the Beavers do.
Oregon State was able to pile up the yards last week, but in its only game versus a Power 5 conference two weeks ago at Michigan, it was held to a pathetic seven points and 138 total yards. Stanford's defense is just as strong as the Wolverines, which puts the pressure on erratic freshman QB Seth Collins who has completed only 54% of his throws this year for a mere 5.2 YPA, 4 TD and 1 INT.
His favorite target is sophomore WR Jordan Villamin (10 rec, 141 yds, 2 TD) who caught a team-high five passes for 45 yards in the loss to Stanford last year. The one thing the 6-foot-3 Collins does very well is run the football, and he galloped for 114 yards (7.1 YPC) and 2 TD last week. This mobility will be key against a stout Cardinal run-stop unit holding opponents to 3.7 YPC.
But Oregon State has run for 214 YPG on a solid 4.8 YPC thanks in large part to senior RB Storm Barrs-Woods (227 rush yds, 6.5 YPC), who rumbled for 151 yards on 17 carries (8.9 YPC) last week. Barrs-Woods did not play against Stanford last year, but gained only 21 yards on eight carries when he faced this Pac-12 foe two seasons ago.
Oregon State's defense has not played particularly well over the past two games, allowing 56 points and 329 rushing yards. But it's not all bad for this unit that has yet to allow more than 180 passing yards in a game and has forced five turnovers in three contests. If the Beavers can come up with a couple of takeaways like Northwestern did to Stanford, this could be a very tight ball game.
