Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
**Baylor at Rice**
-- As of early Wednesday, most books had Baylor (2-0 straight up, 0-2 against the spread) installed as a 30.5-point favorite with a total of 65.5 points. One shop, had the Owls with 45/1 money-line odds.
-- After failing to cover in its first two games, Baylor is mired in a 2-7 ATS slump in its last nine outings dating back to last season.
-- Jim Grobe’s team beat Northwestern State 55-7 as a 50-point home favorite in its season opener on Sept. 2. The Bears led 48-0 at intermission and went ahead of the number with a 55-0 advantage on a 12-yard touchdown pass from Blake Lynch to Zach Smith with 11:13 left in the third quarter. However, the Demons scored late in the third quarter and they took the cash when both teams went scoreless in the final stanza.
-- Baylor’s defense limited Northwestern State to 78 yards of total offense. Senior quarterback Seth Russell connected on 14-of-20 passes for 163 yards and four TDs without an interception. Shock Linwood rushed for 97 yards on nine carries, while Terrence Williams ran for 72 yards and a pair of TDs on 11 carries.
-- Baylor didn’t have it as easy when it hosted SMU in Week 2 last Saturday. In fact, the Mustangs advanced into the red zone twice in the first quarter, setting line for short field goals and a 6-0 lead. The Bears pulled even with Chris Callahan’s second field goal with 1:15 left until halftime. At this point, I was extremely tempted to fire down on Baylor as a 16.5-point favorite for second-half wagers, but I inexplicably passed on this great opportunity. The Bears scored three quick TDs to go ahead 26-6 with 4:55 left in the third quarter. The Mustangs would answer with a TD to trim the deficit to 26-13 with 2:40 remaining in the third quarter. But Baylor tacked on two more scores en route to a 40-13 victory. It failed to cover the number for the game (-34.5), but easily cashed tickets for second-half supporters.
-- Rice (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) has posted a pair of 10-win seasons during David Bailiff’s 10-year tenure. The Owls went to three consecutive bowl games from 2012-2014, but that streak was snapped when they limped to a 5-7 finish. They’ve been to the postseason four times under Bailiff, winning three bowl games.
-- Rice returned seven starters on offense and nine on defense from last year’s team. Nevertheless, it has lost both of its first two games by lopsided margins. In the opener at Western Ky. on a Thursday, the Owls lost 46-14 as 19-point road underdogs. Rice gave up 649 yards of offense to the Hilltoppers. Senior QB Tyler Stehling threw for 183 yards but was intercepted twice. Stehling rushed for a team-high 85 yards and one TD on just 11 carries.
-- Rice was on the road again last week, dropping a 31-14 decision at Army as an 8.5-point underdog. The Owls were minus two in the turnover department for a second straight week. Stehling completed 16-of-30 passes for 197 yards with one TD and an interception. Darik Dillard ran for a team-best 52 yards on eight carries.
-- The ‘under’ has cashed in both of Rice’s games to date.
-- Rice owns an 11-11-2 spread record in 24 games as a home underdog on Bailiff’s watch.
-- Baylor senior starting CB Ryan Reid is ‘questionable’ at Rice with an ankle injury. Reid has 69 career tackles, 20 passes broken up, three interceptions, three forced fumbles and one tackle for loss.
-- Since 1993, Baylor owns a 7-0 record both SU and ATS in head-to-head meetings against Rice, winning the last five games by 17 points or more. The Owls last beat the Bears in 1992 by a 34-31 count as 1.5-point home underdogs. These schools met last year in Waco with Baylor capturing a 70-17 victory as a 33-point home ‘chalk.’ Russell completed 12-of-16 passes for 277 yards and six TDs without an interception, while Shock Linwood rushed 16 times for 158 yards and one TD.
-- The ‘over’ is 3-1 in the last four head-to-head encounters between these in-state rivals.
-- Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**Arkansas State at Utah State**
-- Two of college football’s top-tier mid-major programs are set to collide Friday night in Logan, with both schools in dire need of a victory. As of early Wednesday, most spots had the Aggies listed as nine-point favorites with a total of 56.5 points. The Red Wolves were available for a +280 payout if they win outright (risk $100 to win $280). For first-half bets, Utah State was favored by six at a few offshore shops, but there wasn’t a total yet.
-- Arkansas State (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) has to be one of the nation’s most disappointing teams at this early date. The Red Wolves brought back six starters on offense and seven on defense from a team that went 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS. They also added a former five-star recruit in Alabama transfer DT Dee Liner, in addition to former All-American return man Cameron Echols-Luper from TCU. Other additions included QB Chad Voytik, a grad transfer and former starter at Pitt, and WR Kendall Sanders, a former four-star recruit who started seven games at Texas before sitting out last year per transfer rules.
-- Arkansas State opened the year at home as a 4.5-point favorite versus Toledo, which had run the Red Wolves out of The Glass Bowl by a 37-7 count in 2015. But the revenge angle didn’t matter, as the Rockets dealt out woodshed treatment again. This time around, Toledo easily won 31-10, cashing money-line tickets in the +160 neighborhood. The Rockets enjoyed 556-266 and 24-13 advantages in total offense and first downs, respectively. Voytik completed just 11-of-24 passes for 124 yards. The Red Wolves were plus two in turnover margin, but it didn’t help.
-- In Week 2, Blake Anderson’s squad took a 51-14 shellacking at Auburn as a 20.5-point underdog. The 65 combined points soared ‘over’ the 51-point total. Arkansas State allowed 706 yards of total offense to an AU team that hasn’t exactly been producing points galore recently. On the bright side, Voytik played better by connecting on 15-of-21 throws for 215 yards. He also ran for both of the Red Wolves’ TDs.
-- Liner hasn’t had much of an impact yet, recording four tackles and one QB hurry. Sanders has only one catch for three yards.
-- Arkansas State has posted a 2-4 spread record in six games as a road underdog during Anderson’s three-year tenure.
-- Utah State (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) trashed Weber State 45-6 in its opener as a 21-point home favorite. Devante Mays was the catalyst with 208 rushing yards and three TDs on 18 carries.
-- Matt Wells’s team went to The Coliseum to face Southern Cal in his first season in 2013, losing 17-14 but covering the number as a six-point underdog. But it was a different story last weekend when Utah State caught the Trojans in a foul mood one week after being decimated by Alabama at Jerry World. USC cruised to a 45-7 victory as a 15.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The 52 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 54.5-point total. Mays was limited to 24 yards on eight carries before he was forced to leave the game with an ankle injury. Kent Myers completed 25-of-37 passes for 204 yards with one TD and one interception.
-- Mays is ‘questionable’ vs. Arkansas State due to the ankle injury. Also, Utah State senior starting CB Daniel Gray (neck) is listed as ‘doubtful.’
-- Utah State owns a 9-7 spread record in 16 game as a home favorite during Wells’s tenure.
-- The CBS Sports College Network will provide the broadcast at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
**Arizona State at Texas-San Antonio**
-- As of early Wednesday, most books had Arizona State (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) as a 19-point favorite with a total of 60. Sportsbooks had the Roadrunners with 10/1 odds to win outright (risk $100 to win $1,000).
-- Todd Graham’s squad picked up a solid non-conference win in Week 2 when it captured a 68-55 victory over Texas Tech as a one-point home underdog. The 123 combined points roared past and ‘over’ the 80-point tally. Manny Wilkins completed 28-of-37 passes for 351 yards and two TDs without an interception. Wilkins also ran for 55 yards on 10 totes. Kalen Ballage enjoyed a career night by rushing for seven TDs and 137 yards on just 13 carries. Demario Richard ran 30 times for 109 rushing yards, while Ballage also had two receptions for 48 yards and another TD. N’Keal Harry, the true freshman who was the prize of Graham’s 2016 recruiting haul, had six catches for 72 yards and one TD.
-- In its season opener, ASU thumped No. Arizona by a 44-13 score as a 27-point home ‘chalk.’ The 57 combined points remained ‘under’ the 76-point total. The Sun Devils led by just seven (10-3) at intermission and they weren’t looking good to cover with a 20-6 advantage going into the final stanza. But they outscored No. Arizona 24-7 in the fourth quarter to take the cash. ASU went ahead of the number for the first time with 2:46 left thanks to a 12-yard TD scamper from Nick Ralston. Wilkins threw for 180 yards and one interception, but he rushed for a team-high 89 yards and one score on 14 carries. Richard had 78 rushing yards and one TD on 19 totes, while Ballage had 56 rushing yards and one TD on 10 carries. Tim White had nine receptions for 95 yards.
-- ASU has compiled a 6-3 spread record in nine games as a road favorite during Graham’s five-year tenure.
-- ASU might be without its two leading tacklers from last season. LB Salamo Fiso remained suspended, while LB Christian Sam is ‘questionable’ with a foot injury. Fiso had 99 tackles, 15.5 TFL’s, 4.5 sacks and one interception in ’15, while Sam had 98 tackles, three sacks, three TFL’s and one interception last year.
-- UTSA (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) opened the year by beating Alabama State 26-13 as a 24-point home ‘chalk.’ Junior QB Dalton Sturm connected on 20-of-25 passes for 274 yards and two TDs with one interception. Sturm rushed for 52 yards and another score on just three attempts. Jalen Rhodes ran for a team-best 78 yards and one TD on 16 carries.
-- UTSA went on the road in Week 2 and dropped a 23-14 decision to Colorado State for a frustrating ATS loss as an 8.5-point underdog. The Rams covered the number thanks to a 46-yard field goal with 2:24 remaining in the fourth quarter. The Roadrunners went 0-for-3 on fourth-down plays. Sturm completed 15-of-23 passes for 176 yards and two TDs with one interception. The ground game for UTSA was a joke, though, as it had minus one yards on 34 attempts. Sacks led to Sturm accounting for -57 yards on 10 attempts. Rhodes was limited to 39 rushing yards on 13 carries, though he did have five catches for 54 yards.
-- UTSA is 5-5 ATS in 10 games as a home underdog in the program’s brief history.
-- Arizona State has lost outright in seven of its last eight road openers.
-- ESPN2 will have the telecast at 9:30 p.m. Eastern.
