Friday's Tip Sheet
Illinois at South Florida
The Week 3 version of “Friday Night Lights” takes us to Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, where South Florida from out of the AAC will take on Big Ten representative Illinois. Both teams are undefeated to date, but it’s Lovie Smith’s squad that’s been more pleased with its play here early on. As of Thursday night, most betting shops had South Florida (2-0 straight, 0-2 against the spread) installed as a 17.5-point favorite with a total of 55.5. The Illini were listed at +600 to win outright (risk $100 to win $600).
USF finished 2016 with an 11-2 record and returned seven starters on offense and nine on defense. The Bulls lost head coach Willie Taggart when he took the Oregon job, however, replacing him with former Texas and Louisville head coach Charlie Strong. Although USF remains undefeated, it hasn’t been impressive on Strong’s watch so far. The Bulls fell behind 16-0 at San Jose State in the first quarter of their opener, but they responded to capture a 42-22 win. Nevertheless, they failed to cover the number as 21-point road ‘chalk.’ The 64 combined points fell ‘under’ the 69-point total.
In the win over the Spartans, USF went on a 28-0 run to go into halftime with a 28-16 advantage. The Bulls actually moved ahead of the number on Quinton Flowers’ one-yard TD run with 9:57 remaining. However, San Jose State’s Montel Aaron found Justin Holmes for a 22-yard TD pass with 8:25 left, and that score would hold to give the Spartans the spread cover. USF got a scoop-and-score TD from its defense, only to see it get called back and prevent the Bulls from taking the money. Flowers completed 11-of-22 passes for 212 yards and two TDs without an interception. He rushed for 70 yards and one TD on 18 carries. D’Ernest Johnson rushed for a team-best 99 yards and two TDs on 22 attempts, while Darius Tice ran for 94 yards and one TD on 20 totes. Marquez Valdes-Scantling hauled in six receptions for 91 yards, while Temi Alaka caught a 49-yard TD pass from Flowers.
In Week 2, USF went to intermission trailing Stony Brook 10-7 in its home opener. The Bulls didn’t take their first lead against the FCS foe until Flowers found Valdes-Scantling on a six-yard scoring strike with 2:43 remaining in the third quarter. After extending the lead to 17-10 with a short field goal, the Seawolves pulled even early in the final stanza on a Stacy Bedell 54-yard TD run. USF answered on its ensuing drive when Flowers connected with Tyre McCants for a 65-yard TD pass. Tice’s 14-yard TD run with 1:40 remaining put the game on ice, but Stony Brook easily covered the spread as a 35-point underdog. Flowers completed 19-of-32 throws for 186 yards and two TDs with one interception. He also rushed for 67 yards on 18 carries, while Tice ran for 57 yards and two scores on 16 attempts. McCants had a pair of catches for 74 yards and one TD.
USF saw its Week 3 game at UConn postponed due to Hurricane Irma.
Illinois (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) opened the season by slipping past Ball State, 24-21 as a five-point home ‘chalk.’ The Illini led 16-7 at halftime, but the Cardinals took a 21-16 lead with a pair of third-quarter TD runs. Smith’s squad got a one-yard TD run from Mike Epstein with 2:06 remaining, and a Chayce Crouch three-yard run on the two-point conversion gave Illinois a 24-21 advantage. The defense held off Ball State to preserve the victory.
Illinois could muster just 216 yards of total offense compared to 375 for Ball State. The home team’s defense forced two turnovers, however, and made a key fourth-down stop. Epstein finished with 54 rushing yards and two TDs on 11 carries. Crouch completed 10-of-19 passes for only 145 yards with one TD and one interception. Epstein had two catches for 32 yards as well.
Illinois improved to 2-0 with last week’s 20-7 home win over Western Ky. as a 6.5-point home underdog. The 27 combined points dropped ‘under’ the 51-point tally. The defense was the story for Smith’s troops again, forcing two turnovers including a 10-yard pick-six by Julian Jones to give Illinois a 13-0 lead at halftime. This unit held the Hilltoppers to 244 yards of total offense and jus six rushing yards on 16 attempts. Crouch’s nine-yard TD run midway through the third quarter gave the Illini a 20-0 lead. Western Ky. didn’t get on the board until QB Mike White’s two-yard TD run with 11:38 remaining. Epstein rushed 21 times for 111 yards, while Crouch ran for 44 yards and one TD on 12 carries. Crouch struggled throwing the ball, though, connecting on just 14-of-25 passes for 107 yards with one interception.
The Illinois defense has been led by Del’Shawn Phillips, a juco transfer who was Smith’s prize recruit who arrived in Champaign-Urbana in time for spring practice. Phillips has recorded a team-high 22 tackles, one TFL, 0.5 sacks and one QB hurry. Meanwhile, junior LB Tre Watson has produced 16 tackles, one interception for a 21-yard return, one fumble recovery with a 34 yards return, 0.5 TFL’s and one QB hurry.
Illinois DE James Crawford is suspended indefinitely for unknown reasons. Crawford had 18 tackles and one tackle for a loss last season. Also, sophomore LB Jake Hansen, who was penciled in as a starter coming out of spring practice, is done for the season due to a knee injury. Sophomore RB Reggie Corbin hasn’t made his season debut yet due to undisclosed reasons. Corbin, who is listed as ‘questionable’ at USF, rushed for 523 yards and two TDs while averaging 6.1 YPC last year.
USF staring senior WR Ryeshene Bronson, who had 21 career starts, was lost to a season-ending shoulder injury.
Arizona at UTEP
As of Thursday night, most spots had Arizona (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) listed as a 23-point favorite with a total of 58.5. The Miners were +1250 on the money line (risk $100 to win $1,250).
Arizona started the season with a 62-24 win over Northern Arizona as a 26-point home favorite. The 86 combined points soared ‘over’ the 68.5-point number. Junior QB Brandon Dawkins was the catalyst for the offense, rushing for 92 yards and two TDs on seven carries. He also completed 7-of-13 passes for 89 yards and one TD without an interception. Nick Wilson added 87 rushing yards and one TD on eight attempts. Junior Tony Ellison had five receptions for 79 yards.
Rich Rodriguez’s team lost a 19-16 decision as a one-point underdog in Week 2. The 37 combined points went ‘under’ the 64.5-point total. The Cougars never trailed, but there were a pair of ties (3-3 & 10-10) until Dillon Birden’s three-yard TD run with 45 seconds left in the second quarter gave UH the lead for good. Major Applewhite’s club added a safety in the second half and limited UA to a pair of field goals to garner the victory in its season opener (after its Week 1 game was postponed due to Hurricane Harvey). Dawkins completed 17-of-29 passes for 178 yards without a TD or an INT, and he was held to 26 rushing yards on 13 attempts. UA’s J.J. Taylor rushed for a team-best 87 yards on 17 carries, while junior WR Shun Brown had four catches for 79 yards.
Arizona has posted a 4-4 spread record in eight games as a road favorite since Rodriguez took over in 2012.
UTEP (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) has been clobbered twice to date, losing 56-7 at Oklahoma and 31-14 at home vs. Rice. Remember, the Owls lost 62-7 to Stanford in their opener in Sydney, Australia, two weeks before coming to El Paso and winning handily as 1.5-point road underdogs. The 45 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 55-point total. In the loss to the Sooners, the 63 combined points slithered ‘over’ the 62.5-point tally thanks to a one-yard TD run from OU’s Marcelias Sutton with 10:20 left in the fourth quarter.
Oklahoma dominated UTEP with a 676-167 advantage in total offense. The only highlight for the Miners was Walter Dawn’s 17-yard TD run to knot the score at 7-7 midway through the opening quarter. Junior QB Ryan Metz completed only 10-of-18 passes for 56 yards, while Dawn finished with 56 rushing yards and one TD on just seven carries.
Rice scored the first 17 points at the Sun Bowl last week, keeping UTEP out of the end zone until Warren Redix’s 44-yard TD catch from Metz trimmed the deficit to 17-7 late in the third quarter. After the Owls extended their lead to 24-7, Metz’s one-yard TD plunge made it 24-14 with 4:56 left. Rice added another TD on a short run to the put the game on ice. Metz threw for 203 yards and one TD without an interception. However, he injured his shoulder late in the game and is now considered out indefinitely.
With Metz, who had a 14/4 TD-INT ratio in seven starts in ’16, sidelined vs. Arizona, senior Zack Greenlee will get the starting nod. Greenlee is in his second season with UTEP after starting six games at Fresno St. as a freshman and sophomore. He had a 14/6 TD-INT ratio while playing for the Bulldogs. In ’16 for UTEP, Greenlee started four games and threw for 695 yards with a 5/3 TD-INT ratio.
UTEP owns a 5-7 spread record in 12 games as a home underdog during Sean Kugler’s five-year tenure.
Both teams are dealing with a slew of injuries. In addition to Metz, sophomore tackle Greg Long is out for the season with a leg injury. Long started four games in ’16 as a redshirt freshman and earned All C-USA Freshman honors. Also, starting junior center Derron Gatewood is ‘doubtful’ for undisclosed reasons, and starting sophomore LB Jayson VanHook is ‘out’ for the season with a shoulder injury. VanHook had 36 tackles, one sack and 4.5 TFL’s in ’16.
Arizona’s Wilson, the senior RB, is ‘questionable’ with an ankle injury along with starting senior nose guard Parker Zellers. Three UA starters are ‘out,’ including sophomore safety Isaiah Hayes, senior LB DeAndre’ Miller and junior TE Trevor Wood. Miller had 18 tackles, three sacks, and two TFL’s last year, while Wood caught seven balls for 49 yards. As a true freshman in ’16, Hayes recorded 38 tackles, one sack and 1.5 TFL’s.
Arizona has owned this head-to-head series by winning 22 of 23 games dating back to 1958. UTEP’s lone victory over the Wildcats came in 1970.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
There’s a third televised game Friday night. That side and total available for bettors involves Temple playing host to UMass. As of Thursday night, most spots had the Owls listed as 14.5-point favorites with a total of 52. The Minutemen were at +450 on the money line (risk $100 to win $450). Mark Whipple’s team is 0-3 both SU and ATS after losing vs. Hawaii (38-35), at Coastal Carolina (38-28) and vs. Old Dominion (17-7). As for Geoff Collins’s first squad at Temple since taking over for Matt Rhule, it is out to a 1-1 SU start but has yet to cover the number. The Owls lost 49-16 at Notre Dame before holding off Villanova 16-13 at home in Week 2. Temple is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games as a home favorite, while UMass is 8-8 ATS as a road ‘dog during Whipple’s tenure. The Minutemen are 5-2 ATS in their last seven such spots. This game will kick in Philadelphia at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.
Nebraska RB Tre Bryant has been ruled ‘out’ of Saturday’s home game vs. Northern Illinois due to a knee injury. Bryant has rushed for 299 yards and two TDs on 51 attempts through two games.
During David Cutcliffe’s 10-year tenure at Duke, his teams have compiled an incredible 12-2 spread record in 14 games as a double-digit home favorite. The Blue Devils are 14-point home ‘chalk’ Saturday vs. Baylor.