At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey
We have a good card at Saratoga for Friday, and while I had a tough time coming up with some longshots in the middle races, it looks as if we can beat just about every favorite on the 10-race card. None of the morning line favorites are my top picks.
That bodes well for the early Pick 5, which I have been absolutely snake bitten the last four or five days. Seems like every day I land on four of the five winners and miss out on a hefty payoff.
I have three live longshots in the early five-race sequence and I think we can beat several of the likely favorites, which should set up for a good score.
Friday’s stakes race is the $200,000 National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame (G2), which drew seven with the field likely to be reduced to six as Matterhorn is a main-track-only runner and the weather looks good.
Bobby’s Kitten is the 7-5 morning line favorite and is cutting back in distance off an eighth place finish in the Belmont Derby (G2) which was at 1 ¼ miles. The colt was in the mix and just ran out of gas, with jockey Javier Castellano not pushing the colt late.
The Chad Brown trainee won the Penn Mile two back, bouncing back from another poor showing three back where he faded to finish a well-beaten 12th in the Toyota Blue Grass (G1) on polytrack at Keeneland. The colt figures to bounce back, and Brown is heating up, but at a short price, I am going to try to look for better value for the top spot.
Long On Value is listed at 5-1 on the morning line and offers some value, as does Give No Quarter (3-1) who is making his stakes debut after an impressive victory against first level allowance foes in his last outing at Belmont Park off a 7 ½ month layoff.
Here is today’s opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:
SAR Race 1 Clm $20,000 (1:00 ET)
2 Precious Franca 6-1
1 Pura Vida Zen 3-1
7 Heir to Dare 8-5
6 Bobby Jo 4-1
Analysis: Precious Franca stalked the early pace from the inside and then stalked briefly in the stretch as if she did not want to shoot through on the rail, eventually made her way through but was no match for the winner late in a runner up finish. The winner was Coast of Sangria, who came back to beat $25,000 claimers in her next start on July 30. Our top pick also ran into a repeat winner two and four back. Hoping the ice cold bug Rice takes her to the outside for the stretch drive today and we should catch a fair price on this filly.
Pura Vida Zen stalked the early pace and made a good late run to finish second behind the morning line fav in here for a $16,000 tag. She was claimed out of the race by the Contessa barn that is 8% winners first off the claim. The mare has done much of her best work at Finger Lakes but she does like to win, an 11-time winner. She comes in here sharp and looks capable of being in the mix here despite the slight class hike.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,6,7
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,6,7 / 1,2,4,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 8 Alw $75,000N1X (4:42 ET)
4 In Her Day 3-1
3 A P Johnson 5-2
5 Baby B 4-1
8 Fantastic Eyes 6-1
Analysis: In Her Day returns off a four month break here for the Weaver barn that takes over from Rice. The filly broke her maiden on the inner track at the Big A. The filly sports a couple of quick works and looks ready to fire off the bench for a barn that is 17% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. She should take to turf as she is out of a Hennessy mare that has dropped two other winners and they have both won on turf including stakes winner Mother Russia ($528,966).
A P Johnson is coming back off even a longer layoff, last seen in October running fifth in the state bred Island Sun on turf going a mile in her first start against winners. She broke her maiden over the Spa turf here last summer at today's distance. The Rice barn is 17% winners with runners coming back off a =180 day layoff although the work tag is on the light side.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 3,4,5,8
TRI: 3,4 / 3,4,5,8 / 1,3,4,5,8
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga
R3: #5 Politicallycorrect 10-1
R4: #9 Birkenhead 12-1
R5: #7 Joshuas Giant 10-1
R10: #7 Prove It All Night 10-1
Good luck today!
w-thumbs!^
