Vernon: Friday 8/29 Analysis
By James Witherite
DRF HARNESS
Best Bet: SEBASTIAN K (9th)
Race 1
(6) MISTRESSWITHMUSCLE drew clear at will in the Tompkins stake at Tioga last week, turning in a dominant 11-length win while still in hand. She's hit the exacta in her last four starts, equally capable while calling the shots or off a strong middle move. (3) HIGHEST PEAK ships north off a trio of solid Pennsylvania efforts, striking from the pocket for a 1:54 1/5 score at Pocono two back. She's shown strong recent form, and she figures to be involved from the outset. (7) DRIVING MISS CRAZY broke in a NYSS event at Monticello last week, but took two of her six career wins in other NYSS events. She's at her best when involved early, but others have the speed edge here.
Race 2
(5) WELL BUILT sustained a push to the fore in a 1:54.1 triumph two back at Pocono, but fell victim to a break on the far turn more recently. He's knocked heads with the toughest three-year-old trotters, but struggled to keep up in the Beal and Dancer. Easier group here puts him in striking range. (1B)MR LINDY was a convincing winner in both his career starts, drawing clear through the long Mohawk stretch. Two-turn configuration is nothing new to this Cantab Hall colt, but he'll have to display more speed than has been required of him thus far. (2) MISTER ANSON earned minor checks in NYSS events, hitting the board in three of six efforts on the year. His inside draw should put him close enough to the pace to stay on for a minor share again.
Race 3
(2) MY FRIEND CHARLIE beat N3L foes two back, and more recently sustained a stout first-over try against Excelsior-A rivals before flattening in the stretch. He returns to a cozier spot here, and has enjoyed improved form since returning to the bigger track. (7) WHISPUR beat optional $10k foes in two of his last three starts, and remains in for the tag tonight. Strong form is a plus for this likely pacesetter, but he's liable to face more pressure tonight. (1) STEUBEN LONE PINE returns off a month break, staying close for strong finishes against top distaff trotters before her time off. Can track along for a minor share in this slightly softer group.
Race 4
(8) MELVYN recovered well from breaks to save fifth in a 1:51.4 effort last week, sustaining wide bids for solid finishes in the two prior weeks as well. He moves up in class, but there's enough pace in the race that he can strike off cover. (9) WHITEMOUNTAINPOWER stayed on well from the pocket two back at this level, but controlled the pace in a 1:51 3/5 defeat more recently. He's got the speed to contend here, coming up just short in past efforts against tougher groups. (6) R BLUE MOON RISING steps up off a pocket win, just prevailing in 1:51 1/5 against a slightly easier group. Fits under the N5L condition, and figures to be prominent early.
Race 5
(8) ELLEN'S ISLE ships in from the Meadows after a no-chance 1:53 4/5 effort against top trotters there. She has a much stronger chance of being involved from the outset, and she holds a strong back-class edge over this group. (1)PAINITE has shown better late kick in recent efforts, and can secure a close stalking spot with her inside draw. Consistently a factor at this level, she's 13 of 22 ITM on the year. (6) WILD AND CRAZY GUY beat N5L foes in front-end fashion in two of his last four starts, but was left to chase Gural Hanover more recently in a NYSS race last week. Capable enough, no doubt, but will need a clean dispatch.
Race 6
(6) SHAKE IT CERRY carries an impressive 75% strike rate through her career, and she's by far the richest filly in the field, with her earnings nearly equaling the combined earnings of her eight rivals combined. Likely pacesetter has numerous stakes wins to her credit, and could very well be strongest here again. Seek value in exotics. (4) HEAVEN'S DOOR faded off a first-over try in the Hambletonian Oaks, but was a 1:52 winner in the NJSS final at the Meadowlands in May. Stakes experience certainly helps her cause, but she seems at her best when involved early. (1) BROADWAY SOCKS hasn't missed the board all season, mostly winning smaller stakes events in Pennsylvania. She faces a tougher group here, but she's got the potential to track closely for at least a small share.
Race 7
(7) OMNIPOTENT just missed off cover last week, charging late through a :27 3/5 LQ. She makes her second start at Vernon tonight, and the presence of #3, #6, and #8 could create for a more pressured pace into which she can close. (6) WAR HERO won his last two Open events locally, both in a pressing-stalking role. Gutsy winner may face stronger pressure this week, but still is capable enough. (2) EVIL URGES narrowly missed in a ferocious late charge last week, closing from the absolute back to miss by less than a length. Past pressing-stalking efforts yielded strong finishes in this group, and he could be well suited to sit just off a likely contested lead.
Race 8 - Zweig Main Event
(1A) FATHER PATRICK has only seen defeat in three of his 19 career starts, with that being the case in his two most recent efforts. The $105,000 Lexington purchase has every chance to redeem himself here after a gutsy defeat to Datsyuk in the Tompkins. Lays over the field. (8) RESOLVE was elevated to first in his Tompkins event last week, sustaining a first-over bid after finishing a chasing fifth in the Hambletonian. He's been on the cusp of this top group throughout, and can prove a live longshot given ideal pace and trip circumstances. (1) NUNCIO figures to be close to the pace here, just beaten in the Hambletonian after setting a strong tempo two back. He's hit the exacta in all 19 of his career starts, facing the toughest trotters with consistency. (2) FLYHAWK EL DURADO won his last four NYSS events, and steps into a tougher group here off last week's 1:52 4/5 local victory. Will likely have to change tactics with many leavers in the field, but he's capable of staying on for at least a small share.
Race 9 - Crawford Farms
(4) SEBASTIAN K saw narrow defeat in the Maple Leaf Trot in July, but has been an absolute force in the open trotting ranks since arriving Stateside. His 1:50 Cashman win at the Meadowlands equals the trotting record at the storied oval. Ake Svanstedt has managed this trotter well, and he comes in off some well-deserved rest. (9) MARKET SHARE has demonstrated incredible longevity, remaining competitive at the top levels since taking top honors as a three-year-old in 2012. He's shown up to every big dance since May, and scored wins in the Maxie Lee and a Maple Leaf elimination. Yet another clash of the trotting titans tonight! (2) ARCHANGEL was reeled in off the far turn by Sebastian K in the Cashman, but established the 1:50 Meadowlands trotting record the week prior in his elimination. The five-year-old is finding his old form, coming in off a pair of solid efforts. (7) INTIMIDATE took his 1:51 mark here last year, and ships in after a narrow miss in the Earl Rowe Trot at Georgian, covering the three-turn mile in 1:52.4. Fast miles and strong closing ability put him in the hunt.
Race 10
(8) ROYAL SHYSTER drops a couple levels after proving no threat last week, but chased well off tracking trips in his two prior starts against stronger foes than he faces today. Can pounce off a tracking trip. (4) MYSTICAL MUSCLES rallied off cover for a win two back, but was shuffled out of contention last week at this level. Clearer stalking trip should aid. (1) HITONTHEFLIPSIDE battled throughout for a 1:57 3/5 win last week, and he drops in for the optional $6k tag here. His last effort at this level proved just short, as he rallied to within a half-length off cover. Capable enough.
w-thumbs!^
