Friday 8/21/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

German Bundesliga 1 TODAY 19:30

Hertha Berlin

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W Bremen

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BTEU		21/20	5/2	13/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT HERTHA BERLIN	RECENT FORM
HLALHDALAWAW​ Most recent​	2 - 2 3 - 2 1 - 0 2 - 3	HWADHLALAD*HL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Hertha averaged a divisional low of 3.2 shots on target per game last term

EXPERT VERDICT: Werder Bremen's defence was the joint-worst in the Bundesliga last season, conceding 65 goals, and they were straight back into old habits during a 3-0 defeat to Schalke in their opener. But at least they score freely, so hosts Hertha look too short after avoiding relegation by the skin of their teeth last season.

RECOMMENDATION: Werder Bremen
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[superbeets]

Spanish Primera Liga TODAY 19:30

Malaga

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Seville

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT MALAGA	RECENT FORM
HDALHLAWALHL​ Most recent​	2 - 3 3 - 2 0 - 0 2 - 1	ADAWHWAWAWND*​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Malaga have kept just one clean sheet in their last 14 league matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Malaga failed to win any of their final five home league matches of last season and will not welcome a visit from neighbours Seville, who won 3-2 the corresponding fixture in May. Seville scored in each of their final 13 away matches last term and knocked four past Barcelona in the Uefa Super Cup, so goals should not be a problem.

RECOMMENDATION: Seville
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[superbeets]

French Division 1 TODAY 19:30

Montpellier

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Paris St-G.

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT MONTPELLIER	RECENT FORM
HDAWHLALHLAL​ Most recent​	1 - 2 0 - 3 1 - 1 1 - 1	AWHWNW*NWAWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Montpellier have scored only four goals in their last ten league matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Paris St-Germain have started their title defence with two wins and two clean sheets while Montpellier are bottom of the embryonic table, without a point or a goal. The home side may struggle to turn things around against a PSG side who blasted out of the blocks against GFC Ajaccio last time out and can do something similar again.

RECOMMENDATION: PSG-PSG double result
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[superbeets]

Scottish Championship TODAY 19:45

Morton

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St Mirren

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT MORTON	RECENT FORM
AWHWHLHWHDAL​ Most recent​	3 - 4 2 - 3 0 - 2 1 - 4	HWALHWALHLAW​ Most recent​

EXPERT VERDICT: Morton haven’t won yet in the Scottish Championship, and neither have St Mirren so this could be tight. Despite gaining promotion from League One last term, Morton still lost five times at home, while St Mirren won six away before being relegated from the Premiership.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1


REFEREE: Greg Aitken STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

English Championship TODAY 19:45

Birmingham

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Derby

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT BIRMINGHAM	RECENT FORM
AWHWAWHWAWAD​ Most recent​	0 - 4 3 - 3 3 - 1 2 - 2	ADHLADALHDHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Gary Rowett has lost nine of 37 games as Birmingham manager

EXPERT VERDICT: Birmingham have made a solid start to the Championship campaign and they have the defensive nous to nullify Derby. Blues, who beat Reading on the opening day before holding Burnley to a draw on the road, have also had a free midweek to prepare for this match which could help whereas Derby faced Middlesbrough.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
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REFEREE: Lee Mason STADIUM:

 

[superbeets]

Scottish Premiership Sa 22Aug 12:00

Dundee Utd

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Celtic

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT DUNDEE UTD	RECENT FORM
ALHWHLAWHDAL​ Most recent​	0 - 3 0 - 2 1 - 1 2 - 1	HWADAWADHWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Dundee United have not scored in their last four matches against Celtic

EXPERT VERDICT: Dundee United have won only once in four fixtures in the Scottish Premiership, a run of form which includes a defeat against Aberdeen and a draw with city rivals Dundee at Tannadice. Celtic are scoring freely in domestic matches and should win easily.

RECOMMENDATION: Celtic-Celtic double result
3


REFEREE: William Collum STADIUM:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

National League
Braves @ Cubs
Braves scored total of 15 runs in losing 10 of last 11 Miller starts; he is 0-1, 2.37 in his last three starts- -seven of his last eight stayed under

Hendricks is 2-1, 6.07 in his last five starts (over 4-1).

Braves lost eight of last ten games overall. Cubs lost three of their last four games-- five of their last seven games went over. Atlanta lost last three games with the Cubs, with last four going under- they scored two runs total in last three series games.

Giants @ Pirates
Bumgarner is 3-0, 0.71 in his last three starts; under is 4-0-2 in his last six.

Locke is 0-1, 5.06 in his last three starts; over is 3-0-2 in his last five..

Pittsburgh won eight of last ten games with the Giants; over is 3-1-2 in last six series games. Pirates won 11 of last 13 games (over 8-4-2). SF lost three of last four games; under is 8-2-1 in its last eleven.

Brewers @ Nationals
Nelson is 2-0, 1.83 in his last five starts (under 3-1-1).

Gonzalez is 3-1, 4.02 in his last six starts (over 5-1).

Milwaukee lost four of last six games with Washington (over 5-1); Brewers won four of last six games overall; over is 2-0-1 in last three. Nationals lost seven of last nine games (under 6-3).

Diamondbacks @ Reds
de la Rosa is 4-0, 2.54 in his last six starts; three of his last four went over.

Holmberg is 0-2, 7.24 in his last three starts (under 4-3).

Arizona won four of last five games with Cincinnati; eight of last nine games in series stayed under the total. D'backs lost five of last eight games; four of last five stayed under. Reds lost nine of last eleven games; their last four all stayed under the total.

Phillies @ Marlins
Eickhoff is making MLB debut; he was acquired in Hamels trade, is 11-5, 4.01 in 20 AAA starts this year..

Flores is making first MLB start; he is 3-2, 2.61 in ten AAA starts this year, has allowed three runs in 7.2 IP in six big league relief stints.

Philly won three of last five games with Miami (over 4-1); Phils lost seven of last nine games (over 7-3 in last ten). Marlins scored 37 runs in winning four of last five games; over is 7-1-1 in their last nine.

Mets @ Rockies
Colon is 1-1, 2.49 in his last four starts; three of last four went over.

Gray is 0-0, 3.00 in his three starts (over 2-1).

Mets won their last eight games with Colorado; home side won nine of last 10 in series; seven of last eight stayed under- they lost four of last five games overall; their last four games went over. Rockies lost eight of last ten games; three of their last four games stayed under the total.

Cardinals @ Padres
Lackey is 3-2, 2.55 in his last six starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven.

Cashner is 0-2, 6.35 in his last four starts (over 3-1).

St Louis won six of last nine games with San Diego; last three series games stayed under total. Cardinals won six of last nine games (under 2-0-1 in last three). Padres won seven of last nine games; six of last eight went over.

American League
Indians @ Bronx
Carrasco is 1-1, 1.36 in his last four starts (under 3-1).

Tanaka is 2-1, 2.57 in his last three starts (under 5-2 in last seven).

Bronx lost five of last six games with Cleveland (over 6-4 in last ten), but they won six of last eight games overall; six of their last nine stayed under total. Indians lost four of last six games (three of last four went over).

Rangers @ Tigers
Lewis is 5-1, 3.95 in his last six starts (over 6-3 in last nine).

Verlander is 1-2, 2.25 in his last five starts (under 4-1).

Texas lost its last four games with Detroit; six of last eight series games got over the total. Rangers won six of last eight games overall; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven. Tigers won four of last five games, scoring 29 runs the last three nights- three of their last four games went over.

Twins @ Orioles
Milone is 1-2, 7.32 in his last four starts; under is 5-3-2 in his last ten.

Chen is 2-0, 2.03 in his last two starts; three of his last four went over.

Minnesota won its last five games with Baltimore; over is 4-1-1 in last six in series. Twins lost five of last eight games; four of last seven stayed under. Orioles won five of last seven games; four of their last five went over the total.

Royals @ Red Sox
Cueto is 2-0, 0.53 in two starts for KC; four of his last six road starts stayed under the total.

Owens is 1-1, 6.19 in his three stats; all three went over.

Royals lost nine of last 11 games with Boston; five of last six series games went over the total. KC won five of its last six games, allowing 16 runs (under 5-1). Red Sox won five of last seven games; 10 of their last 11 games went over.

Rays @ A's
Smyly is 0-2, 4.35 in his last four starts; nine of his last ten stayed under.

Bassitt is 1-0, 1.66 in his last three starts; four of his last five stayed under.

Tampa Bay lost five of last seven games; under is 4-1 in last five games; Rays are 4-6 in last ten games with Oakland (under 6-2-2). A's won their last five home games.

Blue Jays @ Angels
Price is 2-0, 1.61 in three Toronto starts; six of his last seven stayed under.

Santiago is 0-2, 5.40 in his last five starts; his last three stayed under.

Blue Jays are 13-3 in their last 16 games; seven of last ten stayed under total. Angels are 6-4 in last ten games with Toronto. Halos won three of last four games overall; under is 6-4 in their last ten games.

White Sox @ Mariners
Sale is 2-0, 1.26 in his last two starts; four of his last five went over.

Hernandez is 2-2, 9.13 in his last four starts; four of his last five went over. He has allowed 41 hits in his last 22.2 IP.

White Sox lost five of last six games; over is 2-3 in its last five games. ChiSox lost three of last four games with Seattle; five of last six series games went under the total. Mariners lost four of last six games (under 2-0-1 in last three).

Interleague
Dodgers @ Astros
Anderson is 3-0, 2.38 in his last four road starts (under 2-1-1).

Fiers is 0-0, 2.25 in two Houston starts; five of his last seven starts went over.

Dodgers won eight of last ten games with Houston (under 6-3-1). LA lost eight of its last ten road games- four of its last six games overall went over. Astros won five of last eight games; their last three games stayed under total.

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
SF-Pitt-- Bumgarner 15-9; Locke 13-10 (4-1 last 5)
Az-Cin-- de la Rosa 14-10 (5-1 last 6); Holmberg 1-3
Mil-Wsh-- Nelson 12-12 (5-1 last 6); Gonzalez 13-9
Phil-Mia-- Eickhoff 0-0; Flores 0-0
Atl-Chi-- Miller 10-14 (1-10 last 11); Hendricks 14-10 (4-0 last 4)
NY-Col-- Colon 10-13 (1-9 last 10); Gray 0-3
StL-SD-- Lackey 13-11; Cashner 9-14

Clev-NY-- Carrasco 14-10; Tanaka 12-5
Tex-Det-- Lewis 12-12; Verlander 2-9
Min-Balt-- Milone 8-7; Chen 15-8 (5-0 last 5)
KC-Bos-- Cueto 13-10/2-2; Owens 1-2
TB-A's-- Smyly 2-2; Bassitt 3-5
Tor-LAA-- Price 17-8/2-1; Santiago 12-11 (1-4 last 5)
Chi-Sea-- Sale 14-9; Hernandez 16-8

LA-Hst-- Anderson 12-11; Fiers 12-11/1-1

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
SF-Pitt-- Bumgarner 4-24; Locke 5-23
Az-Cin-- de la Rosa 6-24; Holmberg 0-4
Mil-Wsh-- Nelson 8-24; Gonzalez 2-22
Phil-Mia-- Eickhoff 0-0; Flores 0-0
Atl-Chi-- Miller 4-24; Hendricks 4-24
NY-Col-- Colon 7-23; Gray 2-3
StL-SD-- Lackey 5-24; Cashner 10-23 (4 of last 5)

Clev-NY-- Carrasco 11-24; Tanaka 4-17
Tex-Det-- Lewis 5-24; Verlander 3-11
Min-Balt-- Milone 2-15; Chen 6-23
KC-Bos-- Cueto 5-23; Owens 2-3
TB-A's-- Smyly 1-4; Bassitt 1-8
Tor-LAA-- Price 4-24; Santiago 7-23
Chi-Sea-- Sale 8-23; Hernandez 7-24

LA-Hst-- Anderson 9-23; Fiers 2-23

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA Betting Recap - 8/10-8/16
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes (from Monday, Aug. 10 through Sunday, Aug. 16)

-- Favorites went 10-5 straight up
-- Favorites went 8-7 against the spread (ATS)
-- Home teams posted a 8-7 SU record
-- Home teams posted a 8-7 ATS record
-- The 'over' went 8-7

Team Betting Notes

-- San Antonio (7-18) lost for the second straight game, and sixth time in seven outings. However, they are still a very respectable 8-3 ATS over their past 11 outings.

-- Seattle (7-19) picked up a victory and cover against San Antonio. It is their first win in three tries against the Stars, and they covered for the second time in three outings.

-- Washington (14-9) picked up a straight-up win (ML +155) despite being short dogs at home. The Mystics are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS when they're an underdog.

-- Atlanta (9-15) took care of business at home as a favorite, topping Connecticut (12-12). The Dream have now covered three in a row, tying a season high. They have yet to cover four straight, and look to change that in a trip to New York (16-7) Friday in Manhattan.

-- Phoenix (15-9) was surprised at home Sunday by Indiana (14-9), who finished the week unbeaten at 2-0 SU/ATS. The Mercury have dropped two of their past three games, and are just 3-9 ATS over their past 12 games.

-- The Fever continue to turn up the intensity, covering for the sixth time in the past seven games after starting the season 5-10-1 ATS in their past 16 games. After a four-game 'over' streak, the 'under' has hit in the past two for Indiana.

-- Los Angeles (8-16) put the brakes on a two-game losing streak and non-cover streak with a win over Chicago (15-11). The Sparks have had the 'under' connect in four of the past five outings.

-- Tulsa (11-14) picked up a surprise win in New York to snap a 10-game losing streak. The Shock is also just 2-8-1 ATS over the past 11 contests. One thing you can count on from the Shock is the 'over', which has hit in five of the past six games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 9
By David Schwab

Week 8 Betting Recap

Week 8 of the 2015 CFL regular season wrapped things up this past Saturday and in a reversal from the previous betting trends, the favorites came out on top with a 3-1 record both straight-up and against the spread. The lone exception was Edmonton’s 15-12 victory against Montreal as a two-point road underdog last Thursday.

Toronto got things started as a 5 ½-point road favorite over Winnipeg with a 27-20 victory last Friday. Hamilton pummeled British Columbia 52-22 as an 8 ½-point favorite at home and Calgary made short work of Ottawa in a 48-3 romp as 10-point home favorites.

Friday, Aug. 21

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS) vs. Edmonton Eskimos (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -2 ½
Total: 50

Game Overview

Hamilton is tied with Toronto for the early lead in the East Division behind an offense that is putting-up an average of 34.7 points a game, which is tops in the CFL. Leading the way has been quarterback Zach Collaros with a league-high 2,014 yards passing. He has tossed 14 touchdowns against six interceptions and his overall completion rate is an impressive 71.3 percent on 223 attempts.

Edmonton has forged to the top of the West Division along with Calgary behind the stingiest defense in the CFL. Through its first seven games, this unit has allowed a total of 101 points for an average of just 14.4 PPG. Matt Nichols continues to fill in for an injured Mike Reilly at quarterback, but James Franklin replaced him in the third quarter of last week’s win. Nichols is not listed on the injury report, but slotback Adarius Bowman is listed as questionable for Friday night.

Betting Trends

Edmonton has a slight 5-3 edge both SU and ATS in the last eight meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in three of the last four games. The Eskimos are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a SU winning record.

Saturday, Aug. 22

Calgary Stampeders (5-2 SU, 1-6 ATS) vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders (0-7 SU, 1-6 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -7 ½
Total: 51 ½

Game Overview

The Stampeders come into this heated West Division rivalry with a head of steam after winning four of their last five games SU, but last week’s romp over Ottawa was the first time they covered the spread this year. Calgary quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell continued to light thing up with 243 yards passing and two touchdown throws in that game. He now has 1,865 passing yards on the year and nine touchdown throws.

Saskatchewan is coming off a bye week after a dismal 0-7 SU start. It covered ATS for the first time this season in Week 7’s tight 30-26 loss to Toronto as a nine-point road underdog. The total went OVER (49 points) for the first time in its last four games. Both Darian Durant and Kevin Glenn are on the shelf with serious injuries, so look for Brett Smith or possibly Tino Sunseri to get the start on Saturday for the Roughriders at quarterback.

Betting Trends

Calgary has won four of the last five meetings SU and it is 3-1-1 ATS. The total has gone OVER in three of the five games. This will be the first meeting between the two this year.

Sunday, Aug. 23

Ottawa RedBlacks (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) vs. Toronto Argonauts (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Toronto -9
Total: 50 ½

Game Overview

Ottawa will look to get back on track after last week’s pasting at the hands of Calgary. It has been one of the biggest surprises in the CFL this season with four victories it its first six games both SU and ATS. The RedBlacks are going to have to find a way to pick-up the pace on offense with a league-low 19.1 PPG. Last week Quarterback Henry Burris was replaced by Thomas DeMarco, but turnovers plagued this team all night long no matter who was under center.

The Argonauts have feasted on the bottom feeders in the CFL this season, but they are 1-2 SU (2-1 ATS) against teams with a SU winning record. Trevor Harris only threw for 168 yards in last Friday’s win over Winnipeg, but he tossed two touchdowns while completing 18 of his 24 total attempts. He is now ranked second in the CFL in total passing yards with 1,987 and his 16 touchdown throws are the most in the league.

Betting Trends

This will be the first meeting this season after these two East Division foes split last season’s series 1-1 both SU and ATS with the home team winning each time. The total stayed UNDER in both contests.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ti-Cats pegged as road dogs in Edmonton
Andrew Avery

The biggest matchup on the CFL docket sees the Hamilton Tiger-Cats visiting the Edmonton Eskimos Friday night and the Westgate LV Superbook has tabbed the visitors as 2.5-point underdogs for the affair.

The Ti-Cats are tops in the Eastern Division with a 5-2 record (6-1 against the spread) while the Eskimos are in second place in the Western Division with a 5-2 record (5-2 ATS).

The Superbook opened the total at 50.

Here is a look at the rest of the matchups and the odds courtesy the Westgate LV Superbook:

Montreal Alouettes at B.C. Lions (-3, 48.5)

Calgary Stampeders at Saskatchewan Roughriders (+6, 51.5)

Ottawa RedBlacks at Toronto Argonauts (-9, 50.5)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Tiger-Cats at Eskimos

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Edmonton Eskimos (+2, 50)

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats try to extend their winning streak to five games when they travel to Edmonton to tangle with the Eskimos on Friday. The Tiger-Cats have scored at least 31 points in each of their last four victories, including an impressive 52-22 win over the BC Lions, and have reached 52 twice this season.

Hamilton's defence has recorded six interception returns for touchdowns - one off the CFL record set by Toronto in 2006 - and has eight scores overall as it hopes to shut down Edmonton and move into sole possession of first place in the East Division. The Eskimos have a stout defence of their own as they racked up a season-high eight sacks in the 15-12 victory over the Montreal Alouettes in Week 8. Edmonton quarterback Matt Nichols has been given the green light to play Friday after a big hit sent him to the sidelines late in the third quarter to undergo concussion protocol testing. The Eskimos have won all three of their home games this season and their last seven overall at Commonwealth Stadium as they hope to pull ahead of the Calgary Stampeders in the race for first place in the West Division.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, TSN

LINE HISTORY: The Eskies opened as 2.5-point favorites but were quickly moved to -2. The total has remained at 50 since open.

INJURY REPORT: Tiger-Cats - DT Drake Nevis (Ques-Undisclosed), OL Landon Rice (Ques-Undisclosed), OL Brian Simmons (Ques-Undisclosed) Eskimos - SB Adarius Bowman (Ques-Lower Body)

ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (5-2): Zach Collaros was named one of the CFL Top Performers of the Week after he completed 19-of-23 passes for 290 yards and four touchdowns against the Lions. Defensive end Eric Norwood also garnered honours from the league after recording four tackles, a sack, a forced fumble and a defensive touchdown in Week 8. Hamilton wide receiver Bakari Grant, who leads the team with four touchdown receptions, missed last week's game with an undisclosed injury and is doubtful after missing practice Monday.

ABOUT THE ESKIMOS (5-2): Nichols was limited to 15-of-24 passing with two interceptions before making way for James Franklin, who finished 9-of-13 for 144 yards, and led Edmonton on the game-winning field goal drive in the final minute. Adarius Bowman, who has caught 28 passes for 400 yards and three touchdowns, returned to practice after sitting out last week's game with a hip injury and is expected to suit up against the Tiger-Cats. "I call it the game of the year," Bowman told reporters. "I think our guys understand the challenge at hand and are going to show up."

TRENDS:

* Tiger-Cats are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
* Eskimos are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games.
* Under is 7-2 in Tiger-Cats last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-1 in Eskimos last 7 home games.

CONSENSUS: 54 percent are backing the Ti-Cats and 51 percent on the under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By BEN BURNS

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you're betting. Whether it's a team looking past this week's opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Ben Burns points out his favorites:

Schedule spot

The CFL’s most Eastern team visits its most Western when the Montreal Alouettes come to BC to face the Lions as 3-point road underdogs Thursday. The Lions have been the wise wager when these non-conference foes clash, covering in 23 of their last 31 head-to-head meetings overall, including a dominating 14-3 ATS mark in their last 17 home games with Montreal.

While those trends are impressive, BC is playing on a short schedule in Week 9. The Lions are coming off a 52-22 thrashing at the hands of the Ti-Cats in Hamilton Saturday and have a quick turnaround to put that loss behind him. The Lions have lost three of their last four games and have struggled with mid-week matchups, covering just four times in their past 13 Thursday contests.

Letdown spot

The St. Louis Cardinals have enjoyed an extended home stand in recent weeks, wrapping up a nine-game slate inside Busch Stadium with a series against the San Francisco Giants. The Cardinals have been tested in those games, hosting the Pirates and Marlins before welcoming the reigning World Series champs, and have bolstered their spot atop the National League in the process.

St. Louis crosses the country to kick off a 10-game road swing, which will nearly take them into September, with a three-game set in San Diego beginning Friday. The Cardinals are in letdown mode for Game 1, off a grueling series with the Giants and travel on top of that wear and tear. St. Louis and San Diego split a four-game series back in early July. Veteran John Lackey is on the mound for the Cardinals, lugging a 4.25 road ERA into Friday’s start – compared to a trim 1.91 ERA at home.

Lookahead spot

The Miami Hurricanes are still one of the most hated football programs in the land, and a lot of that animosity is coming from the Coral Gables faithful. Head coach Al Golden is on the hot seat in South Beach and in desperate need of a turnaround at “The U”. Picking up wins against old rivals like Nebraska, which is a 2-point underdog at Miami in Week 3, is key to Golden’s employment.

But before the Canes and Huskers rekindle their bad blood, Miami visits in-state little brother Florida Atlanta in Week 2. The Hurricanes will likely be lofty faves against the Owls out of the C-USA, but Florida Atlantic will have a packed house at FAU Stadium on September 11 for a nationally televised Friday night showdown. With the Hurricanes holding back with Nebraska on their minds, the Owls and new head coach Charlie Partridge could keep this game closer than oddsmakers expect.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey

Friday’s feature at Saratoga is the $100,000 Schenectady for two-year-olds New York breds going 5 ½ furlongs on the grass. Eight were entered, but Laxfield Road will scratch and Sheikh of Sheikhs is a main track only entrant so we will likely see a compact field of six go to the post.

The Wesley Ward trained Bruised Orange is the 5-2 morning line favorite. Ward has won just three races from his 40 starters so far at the meeting.

The filly broke her maiden in her debut at Keeneland on the main track back in April, then made a trip to Royal Ascot where she was not a threat in a 12th place finish in the Queen Mary Stakes (G2) on June 17.

It looks as if we might catch a bit more value with the Christophe Clement trained Too Discreet, who went gate to wire as the betting favorite to break his maiden in his debut here on Aug. 2. The well-bred colt is 7-2 on the morning line with Joel Rosario in the irons.

We have a big day coming up at the Spa on Saturday with the $600,000 Alabama (G1) the featured race of the day.

The top four finishers of the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) will renew acquaintances. The race was won by Curalina, who was placed first via the disqualification of I’m a Chatterbox, who caused interference in the stretch.

Also in the race is Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Lovely Maria, who is looking to bounce back off a dull fifth place finish in the Delaware Oaks (G3) as the beaten chalk.

Her trainer Larry Jones said a virus had gone through his barn around that time, which might explain the poor outing. She had landed in the exacta in seven of her first eight starts and is a two-time Grade 1 winner taking the Ashland at Keeneland in April.

I will have selections for the Alabama in tomorrow’s column.


Here is today’s opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 1 Clm $25,000N2L (1:00 ET)
3 Surfspun 1-1
1 Stoney Soprano 10-1
2 Call Daddy 2-1
6 Subcontractor 12-1

Analysis: Surfspun pressed the early pace and could not go with the top pair late in a third place finish versus $50,000 starter allowance foes last out. Two back he was beaten a neck by repeat winner Forever Utopia, who beat state bred Alw-1 foes in his next outing. His last pair of speed figs are tops in here as he looks well spotted here facing $25,000 non-winners of two. The main knock is the light price..

Stoney Soprano makes his first start since breaking his maiden in his debut back in May. He comes back as a gelding for the Contessa barn that is 10% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. He has a couple of good works on the morning tab and he looks as if he may have more upside than the two betting favorites who are a combined 2 for 22.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 6-5 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,2,3
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 9 The Schenectady (5:29 ET)
1 Too Discreet 7-2
4 Montauk Cove 8-1
7 Bruised Orange 5-2
5 Don't Be So Salty 4-1

Analysis: Too Discreet took the field gate to wire to break his maiden in his debut for the Clement barn. The colt took action, sent off at even money in a field of eight. The speed fig is coming up on the light side but looking for this guy to move forward off his unveiling. He has a nice pedigree, out of the stakes winner To Marquet ($198,236) who has dropped three other turf winners including multiple turf stakes winner Discreet Marq ($1.2 million).

Montauk Cove broke his maiden two back on Tapeta and last out in the Tyro in his turf debut had a terrible trip. He was boxed in lacking room in the stretch and had to check inside the final furlong. He is out of an Awad mare that has dropped four other winners including one turf winner. Linda Rice's nephew Adam is perfect with two starts at the meeting.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,7
TRI: no play

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R1: #1 Stoney Soprano 10-1
R1: #6 Subcontractor 12-1
R2: #7 La Inesperada 10-1
R3: #5 Bella Veloce 8-1
R4: #6 Sister Superior 12-1
R5: #6 Latigo Trail 12-1
R6: #6 Prospector’s Moon 8-1
R8: #1 Non Stop 12-1
R9: #4 Montauk 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Saratoga Harness

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Post: 9:45 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 81 - Purse:$6500 - FILLIES & MARES - NON-WINNERS $3,500 LAST 5 STARTS OPT CLM ALW $7,500 SARATOGA


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 1 STAGE IT RIGHT 5/2


# 3 BLUERIDGE JEZEBEL 8/5


# 7 FIRE N DIAMONDS 12/1

Look no further than STAGE IT RIGHT as the bet today. Hard to put finger on it, but think about her in this one. Could surprise us at a nice price. Don't leave out. She has been going to post sharply and the speed figs are among the most solid in the group of animals. BLUERIDGE JEZEBEL - If effort in the most recent race is any indication, this entrant will have a very very good shot in this event. High last race speed figure. Bouchard and Mahoney have a very nice working relationship. Excellent results from their competitions. FIRE N DIAMONDS - 56 percent of the time this trainer and horse team end up in the money. Big players in here. Has one of the most favorable win percents in the pack and may be able to add to those numbers in this race.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Tioga Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Post: 8:15 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$5500 - FILLIES & MARES NON-WINNERS $2,500 LAST 4 STARTS


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 JONIGOLD 10/1


# 3 SINSPIRATIONAL 6/1


# 4 CLASSIC CAN DREAM 10/1


JONIGOLD is the best wager in this race and is a very good value bet given the line. This race horse has been making trips to the winner's circle on a regular basis, look for her to make another appearance soon. SINSPIRATIONAL - This contest may be controlled by this mare. Just one look at the avgerage TrackMaster speed fig will prove that. With a 81 average class rating, this nice horse has one of the most solid class advantages in the group of animals. CLASSIC CAN DREAM - Might be there at a nice price tag. Unquestionably one to keep in your exotics.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Columbus

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $3800 Class Rating: 50

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS., OLDER, 123LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 7 YATES' THUNDER 6/1


# 3 M J WYATT 7/2


# 4 GOOD SMOKE 5/2


YATES' THUNDER is the most favorable bet in this race. Appears to have a very good class edge based on the most recent company kept. Has to be considered versus this field displaying very strong numbers recently and an average Equibase speed fig of 50 under similar conditions. The big drop in class can only help this horse this time out.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Maiden Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $27000 Class Rating: 80

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, FOR EACH $2,500 TO $20,000 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 13 CHOLLIE D 7/2


# 14 CANDY MAN CAN 5/1


# 4 HARD TO WANT 9/2


I give my vote to CHOLLIE D here. Ought to be given consideration in this competition if only for the quite good Equibase Speed Fig recorded in the last contest. Has a solid shot in this contest if you like back class. Has run very well when moving a turf route race. CANDY MAN CAN - Must be considered here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone. Has been running well lately and will most likely be on or close to the front end early on. HARD TO WANT - Change in Lasix (on Lasix) may be the difference to a reversal of fortune. Has to be considered versus this field displaying solid numbers as of late and an average Equibase Speed Fig of 74 under similar conditions.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Belterra Park - Race #6 - Post: 5:40pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $5,200 Class Rating: 80

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 LATE DOUBLE JACK (ML=10/1)
#12 H. J. ARVIN (ML=9/2)
#4 I COME FROM BEHIND (ML=5/1)
#10 DILLO (ML=8/1)


LATE DOUBLE JACK - Have to give this gelding a good chance. Ran a sharp contest in the last race within the last month. H. J. ARVIN - Have to make this gelding a win candidate; he comes off a strong outing on July 26th. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. I COME FROM BEHIND - TrackMaster keeps good stats on this type of information. This horse always seems to race well after a vacation. Trainer Cline moves this one to a lower level to face a less competitive field. Look for a sharp performance in this race. This equine brings in a lot of money per race around the track. Tops in this event. DILLO - This race horse should be rocking and rolling down the lane.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 WHOLE LOTTA RUN (ML=3/1), #3 SERAGLIO (ML=6/1),

WHOLE LOTTA RUN - The result of fifth in the last race shows me that this horse may be tailing off. The speed figure last out doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's event. Mark this thoroughbred as a questionable contender. SERAGLIO - The speed figs continue to drop, 83/80/75. Not a positive signal. Don't feel this pony will make an impact in today's event. That last rating was common when compared with today's class rating.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #5 LATE DOUBLE JACK on the nose if you can get odds of 5/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,5,12]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Louisiana Downs - Race #3 - Post: 4:09pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 64

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 THEYPLAYINGOURSONG (ML=7/2)
#2 MYSTIC MADELINE (ML=7/2)


THEYPLAYINGOURSONG - Faces state bred foes today after finishing second versus 'open' company on July 22nd. This pony coming off a strong effort in the last 30 days is a contender in my humble opinion. Bridges gets a break on this horse carrying 6 pounds less than last out. Certainly could make the difference today. MYSTIC MADELINE - I think this filly is very ready right now. I like the fact that Gibson brings her back to a race so quickly. Eramia is right back for another race today after getting on board this equine for the first try on August 12th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. This filly is in fine form, having run a strong race on Aug 12th, finishing second.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 LINCOLN HIGH (ML=5/2), #1 TEA WITH THE QUEEN (ML=3/1), #3 BLAKE THE GREAT (ML=8/1),

LINCOLN HIGH - This probable favorite ran on July 24th and hasn't had a work since then. TEA WITH THE QUEEN - Last performed on August 12th at Louisiana Downs, finishing fifth. Unlikely to improve off of that effort today. BLAKE THE GREAT - This horse hasn't shown much in the last two events.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - THEYPLAYINGOURSONG - Earnings per start is one measure of class I like to check out. This noble animal is tops in the field and has a good shot to beat this crew.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #4 THEYPLAYINGOURSONG on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip