Friday 7/29/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Recap - Week 5
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 SU in Week 5
-- Favorites/underdogs went 2-2 ATS in Week 5
-- Road teams posted a 4-0 SU record in Week 4
-- Road teams posted a 3-0-1 ATS record in Week 4
-- The 'Under' went 3-1 in Week 4

Team Betting Notes

-- Ottawa (3-1-1) suffered its first loss of the season. That part isn't so shocking, as they were due to lose eventually. However, it was WHO they lost to. Saskatchewan (1-3) finally earned a win in its fourth try, edging the RedBlacks 30-29 at home. It was the third consecutive 'over' result for the Roughriders.

-- The RedBlacks are now just 1-1-1 SU against the West Division, and they're 0-2 ATS in their past two against the other division. The 'over' result was their first since Week 1, snapping a 2-0-1 'under' streak.

-- Edmonton (2-2) was tripped up 37-31 at home against Hamilton (3-2), as the Eskimos defense let them down again. So far the Esks have allowed 36 or more points in three of their first four games. As such, it's no surprise the 'over' is 3-1 through Edmonton's four games.

-- The Tigers-Cats haven't been able to figure it out at home, but they certainly have been comfortable on the road. The Ti-Cats are 0-2 SU/ATS at home, and 3-0 SU/ATS on the road this season. Remember that Aug. 3 at Winnipeg, and Aug. 13 at B.C. Lions, in their next two outings.

-- The Blue Bombers have been terrible, going 1-4 SU/ATS through five outings. They're especially poor at home, as the Bombers are 0-3 SU/ATS while averaging just 16.0 points per game and allowing 25.0 points per contest in Winnipeg.

-- Toronto (3-2) dumped Montreal (1-3), as the Alouettes haven't won since June 24 in Winnipeg. The Alouettes have had a power outage on offense, averaging just 12.3 points per game over the past three, all non-covers. The 'under' is also 3-1 this season for Montreal.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 6
By David Schwab

The early race for a title in each CFL division tightened up with last week’s results. Calgary improved its position in the West standings with last Thursday’s 33-18 victory against Winnipeg as a five-point road favorite. On Friday night, Saskatchewan stunned Ottawa 30-29 as a 6 ½-point underdog at home to post its first win of the year.

This past Saturday’s action in the CFL featured a big interdivision showdown between Hamilton and Edmonton with the Tiger-Cats prevailing as four-point road underdogs in a 37-31 upset. Week 5 closed things out on Monday night with Toronto knocking off Montreal 30-17 as a 4 ½-point favorite at home. Here is a look at Week 6 in the CFL.


Friday, July 29

Saskatchewan Roughriders (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF

Game Overview

The Roughriders posted their first straight-up victory of the year in dramatic fashion on game-winning 53-yard field goal with just over a minute to play. The biggest storyline in last week’s upset was the play of Mitchell Gale in his first CFL start at quarterback for an injured Darian Durant. Gale threw for 354 yards and a score including eight completions to Naaman Roosevelt for 182 yards. Darian remains questionable to return to action this Friday night.

Montreal gave up 21 points in the second quarter of Monday night’s rout to help seal its third loss in four games. The Alouettes have been outscored 103-59 in those first four contests and the prospect for any kind of quick turnaround does not look good. Kevin Glenn was back under center for Montreal and despite the fact that he completed 24-of-28 attempts for 285 yards, he still could not get his team in the end zone more than once through the air.

Betting Trends

The Alouettes have covered ATS in six of the last eight meetings in this interdivision clash and the total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in 16 of the last 21 meetings in Montreal.


British Columbia Lions (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. Calgary Stampeders (2-1-1 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -5
Total: 49

Game Overview

The Lions have carved out the early lead in the West Division behind an offense that is averaging over 400 total yards a game with a solid balance between the pass and the run. They have also been stingy on the other side of the ball behind a defense that has only allowed an average of 18.3 points a game. They are coming off a bye week following a 40-27 victory against Saskatchewan in Week 4 as 1 ½-point underdogs on the road.

Calgary has now covered the spread in its last three games with the total going OVER in all three contests. Bo Levi Mitchell continued to light things up through the air with 310 yards passing and three touchdown throws in last week’s win against Winnipeg. He completed 70.7 percent of his 41 attempts while connecting with seven different receivers. Jerome Messam paced the Stampeders’ ground game with 65 yards on 13 carries.

Betting Trends

Head-to-head in this West Division rivalry, the Lions won the first meeting this season 20-18 as 2 ½-point home underdogs, but they have gone just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games against the Stampeders. The total has gone OVER the closing line in five of the last seven meetings in Calgary.

Sunday, July 31

Toronto Argonauts (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Ottawa RedBlacks (3-1-1 SU, 3-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Ottawa OFF
Total: OFF

Game Overview

Toronto has now won three of its last four games both SU and against the spread including wins on the road against Saskatchewan and British Columbia. Credit Ricky Ray for Monday night’s win after throwing for three touchdowns. Ray left the game in the fourth quarter with a leg injury and right now it looks like Logan Kilgore might get the start on Sunday after coming into this past Monday’s game as his replacement.

The RedBlacks will look to quickly bounce back from their first SU loss of the season, but they may have to do it without the services of their starting quarterback Trevor Harris. He left last week’s game early in the first quarter with a leg injury and his status for Sunday remains up in the air. Harris has been one of the CFL’s top passers this season in both yards (1,499) and touchdowns (9). If he cannot go, we may see the return of Henry Burris at quarterback after missing the first five games with a hand injury.

Betting Trends

Ottawa drew first blood in this season’s series with a 30-20 victory on July 13 as a one-point road favorite. Toronto still has a SU 4-2 edge against the RedBlacks over the last six meetings and the total has gone OVER in three of the last four games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 6 CFL games

— Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Montreal Alouettes (-1, 50)
— BC Lions @ Calgary Stampeders (-5, 49)
— Toronto Argonauts @ Ottawa RedBlacks (-8, 48)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Friday
By Mike Dempsey

Entries were drawn for Sunday’s $1 million Haskell Invitational (G1) at Monmouth Park and while the race drew just six, it features the top three finishers from this spring’s Kentucky Derby (G1).

Nyquist is the 6-5 morning line favorite and will break from the rail, making his first start since weakening to finish third in the Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico.

Exaggerator was second in the Derby and came back to win the Preakness only to fade to finish a well beaten 11th in the Belmont. The colt will break form the six post and is the 5-2 second choice on the morning line.

Gun Runner was third in the Derby and skipped the final two jewels of the Triple Crown. He came back at Churchill Downs on June 18, winning the Matt Winn (G3) in gate to wire fashion, drawing away to win by 5 ¼ lengths as the heavy chalk.

The Steve Asmussen trainee drew the four post and is 4-1 on the morning line.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert sends out American Freedom. The trainer has won the Haskell eight times including five of the last six editions of the race. He saddled last year’s winner American Pharoah and Bayern in 2014, and they both went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).

American Freedom won the Sir Barton at Pimlico in May and last out won the Iowa Derby (G3) at Prairie Meadows. Rafael Bejarano is in to ride and the colt 3-1 on the morning line.

Completing the field are Withers (G3) winner Sunny Ridge (20-1) and Pegasus (G3) third place finisher Awesome Slew (15-1).

I will have selections for the Haskell in Sunday’s column.

We have racing at Saratoga six days a week, with Tuesday our only off day.


Here is today’s opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 1 Md $30,000 (1:00 ET)
#& Noble and True 8-5
#1 Vilma 3-1
#2 Squeeze Thetrigger 6-1
#6 Paschal 12-1

Analysis: Noble and True drops in for a tag for the first time here in his fifth career start. The gelding stalked the early pace and made a mild late run to finish third last out at Monmouth Park. The runner up and sixth place finisher came out of that race to graduate next out. The gelding landed in the money in all four starts and looks as if he has enough pedigree to handle nine furlongs. He is by Giant's Causeway out of the stakes winner Baghdaria ($725,433) who has dropped three winners.

Vilma tracked the early pace and was no match for the winner in a runner up finish for a $30,000 tag last out going a mile at Belmont Park. The gelding is now 0 for 9 but earned a career top speed fig last out and does not need to move forward much off that effort to be in the mix here.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,2,6,7
TRI: 1,7 / 1,2,6,7 / 1,2,4,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 9 The Curlin (5:40 ET)
#4 Gift Box 7-5
#1 Connect 9-5
#6 Majesto 8-1
#8 Swipe 10-1

Analysis: Gift Box was a good looking winner versus Alw-1 company last out off the bench, stalked the early pace, coming with a four wide bid and drawing away to win by 4 1/2 lengths. He caught a racing strip that was kind to horses on or near the lead that day. He was third in the Remsen (G2) last November in his first start against winners. Now he comes back off a two-month break here and is using this race as a possible prep for the Travers (G1) next month. The Brown trainee appears to have a ton of upside. He is a half to stakes winner Stonetastic ($691,062).

Connect is also sent out by Brown and beat Alw-1 foes last out at Belmont Park in his first start against winners. The effort was flattered when the runner up Wake Up in Malibu came back to win the state bred Saginaw in his next outing on July 8. This guy should have no problem handling nine furlongs. He is by Curlin out of a Holy Bull mare. An imposing couple of runners form the Brown barn and a chalky exacta.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,4,6,8
TRI: 1,4 / 1,4,6,8 / 1,2,4,6,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R1: #6 Paschal 12-1
R6: #7 Sun and Moon 8-1
R6: #5 Da Wildcat Girl 8-1
R8: #1 Quigley’s Corner 10-1
R9: #6 Majesto 8-1
R9: #8 Swipe 10-1
R10: #1 American Road 12-1
R10: #9 Nominal Dollars 12-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Grand River Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Post: 7:35 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 59 - Purse:$18000 - O.S.S. GRASSROOTS #3A - 2 YEAR OLD FILLY TROT


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 3 LEXUS DIAMOND 12/1



# 1 SUNNYDAY KASH 10/1



# 2 MAN SHES HOT 8/5



After thorough analysis by the handicapping team, LEXUS DIAMOND comes out as the top pick and look at those reasonable morning line odds. She has nice class numbers, averaging 60. Could be considered for a bet for this one. Is a very compelling win contender given the 50 TrackMaster SR from her most recent contest. SUNNYDAY KASH - Comes into this race with competitive TrackMaster class rankings as compared to the race - take a good look. MAN SHES HOT - Fontaine has been able to get this contender to perform when sending to the post. Definite exotic possibilities. Can't overlook based on TrackMaster Speed Ratings which have been exemplary (58 avg) most recently.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Harrah's Philadelphia

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Post: 12:40 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$14000 - 3 & 4 YR. OLDS NW 3 EXT. PM RACES OR $30,000 LIFETIME PA PREFERENCE NO. 4 BROADWAY FANTASY - FIRST TIME LASIX


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 7 TURN THE PAIGE 9/5



# 3 HAWAIIAN CANDO 5/2



# 4 BROADWAY FANTASY 6/1



The play in this event is TURN THE PAIGE. This gathering may be controlled by this filly. A single look at the avgerage TrackMaster Speed Rating will prove that. Has a clear-cut shot here, if she can race to her back racing class. Certainly did like this filly's last race. Ran a big 87 TrackMaster Speed Rating. Major player. HAWAIIAN CANDO - Feel the need for speed, this horse has been turning in some fantastic TrackMaster Speed Ratings averaging around 78. Worth considering today if only for the competitive TrackMaster Speed Rating achieved in the most recent competition. BROADWAY FANTASY - Look for a really strong improvement from this entry who races with first time Lasix in this race. When Scott sends this entrant out you can bet they'll be in the top three, statistics show them there 67 percent of the time.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grand Prairie

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4000 Class Rating: 59

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON 3 RACES LIFETIME. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200 C/G PREFERRED).



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 1 BEST SHAKIN 9/5


# 4 MOUNTAIN MINISTER 5/2


# 2 CLEARED TO VICTORY 4/1


BEST SHAKIN looks to be a quite good contender. Will almost certainly compete well in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group of horses. Has to be given a shot - I like the numbers from the last race. CLEARED TO VICTORY - Trainers don't bring ponies back this soon for no reason. This horse should be bet on at the expected high odds.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 64

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 29 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 BLUE RIBBON GIRL 5/2


# 5 SHERRY'S SALUTE 2/1


# 6 O MY GIGI 7/2


BLUE RIBBON GIRL looks strong to best this field. Should expect this pony to be close up on the wire versus these racers. Has very strong Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of animals - worth a look. Is worth a close look and may be a bet - strong Equibase speed figs (59 average) at today's distance and surface recently. SHERRY'S SALUTE - Posted a formidable speed rating in the latest race. Can run another good one in this race. Might best this field here, showing decent figures of late. O MY GIGI - Pastor is very serious with this one, wheeling her back soon. Had one of the most favorable Equibase Speed Figures of this field in her last contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Evangeline Downs - Race #3 - Post: 6:44pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 51

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 SO NILSSON (ML=5/2)


SO NILSSON - Faced tougher last time out at Evangeline Downs. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker group, so I will put this horse on my list of strong contenders. Believe in this horse. Coming off the pace, I think he'll be in a fantastic spot to crush them in the stretch. You have to really like that most recent race speed figure, 52, which is the highest recent race figure of this group. This gelding is in nice physical condition. Ended up second on July 8th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 SHERMAESQUE FLAG (ML=7/2), #8 TOOTOUGHTOTANGO (ML=9/2), #6 RED BEANS N RICE (ML=5/1),

SHERMAESQUE FLAG - Pedestrian speed rating last time out at Evangeline Downs at 7 furlongs. Don't think this horse will improve too much in today's race. TOOTOUGHTOTANGO - This entrant just hasn't looked fit of late. RED BEANS N RICE - Improbable that this horse will finish better than he did last out when placing fifth. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed rating was most unsatisfactory when compared with today's Equibase class figure.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SO NILSSON - I love betting on horses that have a big advantage over the rest of the field when it comes to the TrackMaster Power Rating. This one fits the bill.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#3 SO NILSSON is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Monmouth Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:27pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1A IRISH SMARTY (ML=2/1)


IRISH SMARTY - You may want to disregard that last event at Penn National in the slop where he finished off the board. Should do well in this race without the slop.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 LUBANGO (ML=2/1), #7 JONESY BOY (ML=3/1), #3 LIBERTY ST. OUTLAW (ML=4/1),

LUBANGO - You always think this horse has a shot to win, but he falters most of the time. JONESY BOY - The speed figure last out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this horse as a likely underpriced equine. LIBERTY ST. OUTLAW - 4/1 odds isn't enough for this thoroughbred when checking the most recent efforts. Hard to support any animal with deteriorating speed figs of 78/68/56.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #1 Entry on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Saratoga

RACE #9 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 5:18 PM EASTERN POST


The Curlin Stakes

9.0 FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEAR OLDS STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#1 CONNECT
#4 GIFT BOX
#7 UNCLE VINNY
#8 SWIPE

Restricted to 3-year-olds, the Curlin was first run in 2009 and named after the two-time Horse of the Year who won the 2008 Grade 1 Woodward at Saratoga. Trained by Steve Asmussen for the late Jess Jackson, Curlin won the 2007 Preakness and the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic as a 3-year-old, and retired at the conclusion of his 4-year-old campaign as the first horse to break the $10 million mark in earnings, with $10,501,800. Here in the 8th running of this stakes test, #1 CONNECT is the overall speed and pace profile leader, and has hit the board in each of his three career starts to date, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in his last two starts. #4 GIFT BOX, the morning line favorite, also has a nice pace profile, and has hit the board in each of his four career starts to date, including a pair of "POWER RUN WINS" found in his last start, as well as in his 3rd race back. Jockey Javier Castellano and Trainer Chad Brown send him to the post ... they've hit the board with 57% of more than 200 entries saddled as a team to date.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Friday 7/29 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 4,5,7/2,3,7/3,5,6/8,9/1,9 = $21.60

EARLY PICK 4: 8,9/1,9/3,4,6,9/1,7,9 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 2,5,7/4,8,9/1,3,5/6,9 = $54

MEET STATS: 242 - 700 / $1288.40 BEST BETS: 41 - 66 / $129.80

SPOT PLAYS: 15 - 64 / $79.90

Best Bet: LOVETHEWAYYOULOOK (5th)

Spot Play: DEWTIFUL LASS (2nd)


Race 1

(7) LADY JEN was dominating in this class early this month. Expect a return to form here in this short field. (5) GOLDIES MACH was sent first up to attack quick fractions last week and hung around for third. This assignment looks easier and she is a contender. (4) TIGRA SEELSTER raced evenly in her return to Mohawk and could improve slightly off that effort; using. (6) ALEXAS HOPE closed for 2nd last time aided by a rapid early pace. She could be overbet here; minor award predicted.

Race 2

(7) DEWTIFUL LASS raced okay in mixed company last time now she returns to face her own gender exclusively here and she figures. She could also be a good price; top call. (2) THE POWER OF MANY has faced tougher in her last couple and wasn't that far back at the finish. She should be prominent throughout here. (3) ANNELI HANOVER has won two straight and isn't out of this, but she will likely need to trot faster to win this. (1) TRUE MUSCLE also faces easier here and will be heard from leaving from the inside.

Race 3

(6) MISS COCO LUCK qualified fast enough on July 26 to suggest that she is feeling better following two vet scratches and she should jog in this class if she is close to 100%. (3) LIFE IS A LADY was a close third here in a similar class with Jamieson driving earlier this month. She is worth using on multi-race tickets at a price. (5) THATLL BE FRANNY could trip out near the front here and break her 2016 goose egg. (1) CALL IT COURAGE is always likely to finish on the edges, it seems.

Race 4

(8) DIAMOND TESTED closed strongly into an accelerating late pace last time. She need only get a decent trip to beat this group of underachievers. (9) THIS DAY FORWARD is 0-17 but her last two starts have been very good and she could break through here. (5) ACTIVE LADY is 0 for 20 but should be in the thick of this based on recent form and company. (1) BAD AT REDHOT is a good one to use on the bottom of exotic bets.

Race 5

(1) LOVETHEWAYYOULOOK couldn't have won any easier in her first start out of the Weller barn. Call to repeat. (9) D GS PESQUERO dropped into this class last week but couldn't catch another sharp class dropper that led throughout; consider here. (7) ST LADS PENNY LANE has been racing well at this class and her good closing kick should come into play here. (5) RIDE AWAY SHARK rarely wins but should take a slice at this level.

Race 6

(4) SECRETCODE HANOVER added Lasix and popped at a huge price last time out. He should be a good price again and may be worth another stab here. (6) MOONSTAR MISSION was a sharp winner early in the month then missed some time to sickness. I'll use on Pick 4 tickets but wouldn't take a short win price here. (9) WORLDCLASS HANOVER won the last time she was in a non-winners of two class; using. (3) MISSEDBYADAY adds Lasix here and is another to toss on Pick 4 tickets. He figures if he returns to form.

Race 7

(7) TONIGHTIMLOVINGYOU has shown rapid improvement in her past two starts. Catch her while she's hot. (9) FOREVER LIZA has won three of her last five and should be able to float out and get a spot in the top five early here. She's dangerous. (1) COLLECTIVE WISDOM should wake up with a much better performance here exiting the Town Pro series. (3) BAD LIGHTNING always seems to be around for a minor share at the wire.

Race 8

(5) LIGHTS GO OUT was aggressive as expected with the class drop last week but she simply went too fast early in the mile. She could do here with better rating. (2) VICTORIA SEMALU is in excellent form and she should get a good trip here. (7) HOPE FOR PADDY won off a similar class drop two back and also six starts back. She is a must-use here. (4) A PLUS will be passing mares late for a share here.

Race 9

(4) STEPPIN OUT woke up and took a new life's mark last time. I'll play him back here despite the class rise. (8) SECOND SISTER seems to be improving as the season progresses; using. (9) BAGS FOR ALL drops one class and may try to bottom the field out here. If she clears quickly, look out. (1) CAULFIELD drops but has missed time. He will likely finish on the edges.

Race 10

(5) STONEBRIDGE QUEST stayed in at the 1/2 last week and closed a lot of ground up the inside. I would think Henry will leave this time and if he does, she will be right there. (1) BROOKDALE SHADOW is always dangerous when she draws inside due to the possibility of working out a perfect trip. (3) MARLEE B should find these easier and she can perform much better here with slower fractions likely. (2) REGALLY READY dropped, popped, now steps back up. She should get a check but more is unlikely.

Race 11

(9) BOURBON SEELSTER has won four of her last five and had no problem with this post last time; top call. (6) MAXIM SEELSTER should get another good trip near the front and she is plenty fast enough to win this. (4) BERNADETTE has been on the improve the last few weeks. She merits a look here. (8) TOP ROYAL went a crazy parked out trip last week, backing up on the turn then closing again late. She could take a share here if she doesn't get hung out. (2) SOUTHWIND TANGO loves to finish third but may have her streak broken this time.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Friday 7/29 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 108 - 288 / $595.80 (+$19.80) BEST BETS: 15 - 24 / $38.80 (-9.20)

Best Bet: ARIANA G (2nd)

Spot Play: VICTOR GIO IT (10th)


Race 1

(1) SIGNAL HILL had no problems with the hobbles added in his most recent qualifier. In a race without a clear standout, I'll lean his way. (2) CATCH THE GAME looks like he barely won his last qualifier on paper, but he was never losing that race; clear threat. (10) EARL VARIERA comes off a dull qualifier over a month ago, but trainer Svanstedt is very capable of getting them to roll off the bench; price possibility. (7) YOU CANT HABIT has been okay against stakes foes out of town.

Race 2

(2) ARIANA G looks like a special filly and should prove very difficult to beat. (7) WAFFLE CONE displayed some ability in her NJSS races and should have every chance at second money. (1) BROADWAY IDOLE has put together three solid races but faces a bit tougher in here.

Race 3

(4) HILLARMBRO came home willingly when he had daylight in his latest start. He definitely seems worth following, especially against this questionable group. (10) STAR'S EDGE has the early speed to make some noise. (2) MYSTIC STELLA has looked pretty good in qualifiers and needs to carry that over to nighttime action.

Race 4

(3) NEW JERSEY VIKING couldn't handle the uncovered route last time out as the favorite. The price should improve tonight and he looks as good as any in here. (2) KING ON THE HILL improved greatly with hobbles added and can step forward off that positive effort. (6) RUBIO is hard to knock at 3-for-3 lifetime.

Race 5

(1) SASSA HANOVER hasn't been very consistent in her 4-year-old season, but she draws inside against a field that seems to lack much early speed and should be able to secure the pocket or brush early. (8) TABLE TALK hasn't been able to stay on the track of late. That said, she can fire off the gate and wouldn't be a shock to wire this field at a price. (6) DELIGHTFUL DRAGON responded nicely on the class drop and may have picked up some confidence.

Race 6

This is the toughest race on the card to decipher. Any of the nine entrants could win if given the right trip. (5) DANISH DURANGO comes off a decent effort despite missing four weeks of action and should be a bit sharper tonight. (8) WORLD CUP was racing well from off the pace and didn't have enough when showing early speed last week; new tactics? (2) RULES OF THE ROAD displayed a bit more late life with Lasix added last time. (1) CANEPA HANOVER is going to wake up sooner or later and I hope I have a few shares of him that night. (3) JEWELS IN HOCK is a capable mare coming off a good win.

Race 7

(2) GWENEEEE J couldn't overcome the outside post last time and doesn't seem to be at her best when on the lead. From this spot driver John Campbell should be able to bide his time and latch onto live cover. (3) FROST DAMAGE BLUES took her shot in the Golden Girls with a speedy early move and paid the price. This should be in her comfort zone. (1) REQUEST FOR PAROLE rode a lifetime best to a near career best mile a week ago; clear threat. (4) NOT BEFORE EIGHT had no shot at catching #1 last week. She is sharp and always dangerous off cover.

Race 8

(3) CHEZATTER has a strong late kick and figures to provide plenty of value with (2) THAT'S ALL MONI signed on. The latter is perfect in two starts for Gingras/Takter. She'll be the heavy favorite but I'm not sure she is a wise play in a field of 2-year-olds that could step up at any time. (7) SIANNA HANOVER should be controlling the action at the start and could steal the race in an elimination where some might be playing for only a top five finish. (1) CAMERON HILL ships down with a perfect record and deserves a look.

Race 9

(7) KEYSTONE THOMAS blasted down the road with amateur driver Hechkoff in the bike. Brett Miller should be able to produce at least that speed, no? (2) CLASSICAL ANNIE gets some major class relief this week and should prove tough. (8) POSSESSED FASHION doesn't love to win but should get a piece of this purse.

Race 10

(5) VICTOR GIO IT got a bit crowded on the final turn and made a mistake in his career debut. I'm not going to hold that one miscue against him assuming I can get north of 2-1 this week. (2) WHAT THE HILL displayed speed at both ends of the mile to win the NJSS final two weeks ago; one to beat. (1) SOUTHWIND COBRA looks okay on paper if you toss the recent break.

Race 11

(5) HANNELORE HANOVER is simply too sharp to pick against right now. (4) JL CRUZE comes off a nice win despite missing a few weeks. Maybe he is finally ready to step up to the Open ranks again. (2) WINGS OF ROYALTY finished second behind the top pick last time and Sears is listed to drive; interesting.

Race 12

(1) MARGARITA M put in an even mile after missing six weeks of action. In a blank field, I can see her stepping up at a price. (4) PRINCE DE VIE raced okay in his career debut. Could a win here springboard him into the Hambletonian with only two starts under his belt? (9) REIGNING MONI gets some major class relief; clear player.

Race 13

(9) VRAKA HANOVER moves into the Burke barn and is eligible to improve in a hurry. (7) EXOTIC BEACH returns to the Big M without too much form and could surprise at a price. (4) M A JACKIE comes off a win at this level but faces better foes this week. (3) BODACIOUS BECKY & (2) LET HER ROCK look like must-use players at least underneath and either could score at their best.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Friday 7/29 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF

MEET STATS: 180 - 762 / $1,151.80

BEST BETS: 22 - 74 / $113.50

Best Bet: ANNDROVETTE (8th)

Spot Play: ROCK N ROLL XAMPLE (12th)


Race 1

(5) CLEM tired in the stretch drive last out but this gelding has tactical speed and could rate and score with Brennan at the helm. (3) MCARDLE ROYALE N put in a mild rally for fourth money recently; draws better. (4) THISGUYSAROCKSTAR was sent down the road for all the glory at Monticello last time out.

Race 2

(4) CALIPARI Tough trip last time around for this 8-year-old gelding. Has every right to make his return to the winner's circle if he reverts to his July 12th score. (2) MONROE COUNTY gets serious post relief and that should help his cause. (1) GEORGINA CORNER is another that gets the luck of the draw; watch out.

Race 3

(1) SMOOTH CRIMINAL took the pocket route on his way to victory last out. Gelding is very capable of getting the job done again. (2) ANNUITY is knocking at the door based on his last two and Sears stays. (4) ARTIST NIGHT closed well to grab the fourth spot last time out.

Race 4

(7) WE THINK ALIKE flashed good speed in his last try so with that said the gelding does know how to win and if he gets a favorable trip it could be game over for the rest. (2) WINNING IS SWEET moves to the 2-hole and this seems to be a perfect spot for this gelding; threat. (4) BBS HARLEY needs to revert to his 4th of July trip at Philly to contend; maybe.

Race 5

(7) CANT IT BE ME pulled out of the 3-hole early and was used most of the way but hey he did race well to hold on for the show spot last out; can rebound. (3) JULERICA drops a notch in class and could make some noise in here. (4) ULTIMATE G Sharp in his last three starts; not out of this.

Race 6

(3) BULLSEYE took charge right from the bell and just held on for win honors last time around. Gelding is in fine form and despite the rise in class this 5-year can boss these. (2) KEYSTONE HONOR came outside down the center of the track for the victory recently. (7) SAMMY THE BULL N has put in two sharp seconds in a row; watch out.

Race 7

(3) NARCIAN JEWEL takes another drop in class and with her tactical speed this mare can top these with a well judged drive. (1) GROUNDED retains the pole position and needs a better trip than in her last flop; factor. (2) SCOOTIN FOR JOY raced evenly for the show spot last time out.

Race 8

(4) ANNDROVETTE might have been in over her head in a stakes event at the Meadowlands last out so this looks to be a perfect spot for this pacing mare to greet the cameraman for pictures. (8) MACH IT A PAR don't know what happened in her last start so hopefully she will rebound tonight. (5) SECRETS OUT N took charge at the 3/4 pole and ran out of gas in deep stretch in her last trip.

Race 9

(3) LYONS SHADOW lost glory by only a head and that start is an indication she is ready to put her best foot forward. (1) SWEETNSINFUL was second best in her last try and the pole position makes her a strong contender in here. (6) ENVIOUS HANOVER Three seconds in a row; beware.

Race 10

(5) CAROLSIDEAL leaves the 8-hole for a cozy spot. Mare takes a drop in class and with the right trip she can get the job done. (1) TIPITINA Here's another that gets post relief and has tactical speed; main danger. (4) LUCY PEARL raced evenly for the fourth spot in her last trip to the post; quite possible.

Race 11

(4) ARI ALLSTAR Gelding came up short for win honors losing glory by a head. Despite the rise in class this 5-year-old is rounding back to form; gets the call. (1) GALLANT SEELSTER has speed and the fence; big threat. (2) SAMS ESCAPE is knocking at the door based on his last three outings.

Race 12

(4) ROCK N ROLL XAMPLE was facing Open foes at Saratoga last time out and this mare does have a fondness for the Hilltop; can boss these. (5) AL RAZA N Maybe the drop in class will get this pacing mare back into the winner's circle; capable. (3) JAG OUT Consistent pacer just got up for win honors in her last try and must be considered in all the exotic slots.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Friday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Arlington Park (1st) Gritty Greeley, 3-1
(3rd) Look Who's Here, 9-2

Belterra Park (1st) Baku Nights, 9-2
(6th) Emmy Who, 7-2

Canterbury Park (4th) Ciaran's Prize, 4-1
(6th) Diggin My Toes, 8-1


Charles Town (3rd) Upperville, 3-1
(6th) Garen, 7-2


Del Mar (3rd) Sizzling Bel, 4-1
(6th) C.C. Zip, 4-1


Ellis Park (2nd) Walt, 4-1
(6th) John Gordon, 9-2


Emerald Downs (3rd) Brilliant Thought, 9-2
(5th) Seeking a Mystery, 9-2


Evangeline Downs (2nd) Quick Draw Ronnie, 6-1
(5th) Blue Ribbon Gent, 6-1


Gulfstream Park (2nd) Colonel June, 7-2
(6th) Ada Cowgirl, 6-1


Indiana Grand (2nd) Sammy's a Breeze, 4-1
(8th) Hoosier Maiden, 8-1


Laurel Park (4th) Surfspun, 4-1
(5th) Beaches N Bourbon, 7-2


Louisiana Downs (2nd) Holy Flip Flop, 6-1
(3rd) O My Gigi, 7-2


Monmouth Park (3rd) Master Deacon, 4-1
(5th) Gone Deep, 8-1


Penn National (3rd) Fuego Mi Amor, 4-1
(8th) Riled Child, 3-1


Prairie Meadows (2nd) Cestana, 5-1
(5th) Jebias, 7-2


Santa Rosa (5th) Johnny Reb, 6-1
(6th) Hula Girl, 6-1


Saratoga (6th) Natalie Victoria, 7-2
(7th) Saratoga Giro, 7-2


Thistledown (3rd) Mom Genes, 4-1
(6th) Birdie Num Nums, 6-1


Woodbine (4th) Nevaeh's Valentine, 7-2
(8th) Sweet Little Man, 6-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

July Pitchers Report
By Marc Lawrence

Fireworks and the MLB All-Star game go hand-in-hand during the month of July. It also denotes the start of the 2nd half of the MLB campaign. And as we’ve come to learn the key to each and every team’s fortune lies on the pitching staff.

Can they sustain or will they unravel like Jose Canseco going back on a fly ball? Stay tuned. What we do know is that certain pitchers love hurling this time of the season while others tend to get lit up like a roman candle on the 4thof July.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team-starts over the course of the last three seasons during the month of July.

On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in July, winning 33% percent or less of their team-start efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each July over the last three years.

And for your convenience alongside each record we break down each pitcher’s greatest success or greatest failure rate either home (H) or away (A) within his good or bad month.

Note: * designates a categorical repeat appearance by this pitcher, maintaining status quo from last season’s July list.

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

*Chen, Wei-Yin - 9-4 (5-1 H)

The Miami left-hander has not been terribly effective with an ERA hovering around 5. If Chen can develop more command, he's shown again this year he's tough when in challenging situations, allowing .186 batting average and .271 on-base percentage with runners in scoring position.

Garza, Matt - 9-3 (5-1 H)

Since coming back from spring training injury on June 14th, the Milwaukee right-hander has been a mix of good and bad, but come through when it counted. Opposing hitters are batting over .300 against Garza, but he's held those runners in check and induced a heavy dose of ground balls that have led to outs. If he continues, this Brewers starter might be effective.

Greinke, Zack - 11-4 (6-2 H)

Though Arizona is falling short of preseason expectations, the Diamondbacks ace is not and, other than Clayton Kershaw, has arguably been as effective as any pitcher since the end of April with batters hitting around .200 against him. Once again his array of pitches are finding the right spots and fastball is cooking!

Kazmir, Scott - 10-5 (6-2 H)

When Kazmir misses on location for fastball, the other team's lineup begins to look for off-speed stuff, which has caused his inconsistency this season. When he's working the corners on the knees early in the count, this sets up secondary pitches. In the past he's done so in July, let's see what he comes up with this time.

*Kershaw, Clayton - 12-3 (8-0 A)

When either Kershaw loses or has a less than stellar performance, which is infrequent, it is home page news on most sports websites. With opponents batting just .185 against him, baseball's best pitcher has close to as many home runs surrendered (6) as walks (9) to start the month over 121 innings. It’s no wonder his name is whispered in the same company as Sandy Koufax.

Kluber, Corey - 13-4 (9-2 H)

Since winning the Cy Young award in 2014, Kluber has not been able to match that magical season, but is part of a very good Cleveland rotation. Looking ahead, if the Indians righty can do a better job than permitting .281 batting averages with runners in scoring position, all his numbers will drop and his victories will go up. Note: Kluber’s numbers above also reflect his career team mark during July.

*Liriano, Francisco - 12-2 (7-0 H)

After several fine seasons with Pittsburgh, Liriano has not been effective in 2016. Walks and home runs have done him in and in order to reflect past results of July, he's going to have to stop leaving pitches in the heart of the plate.

Peralta, Wily - 8-4 (5-1 H)

Peralta has been thoroughly ineffective all season (6.68 ERA) and was sent to minors after June 11th start. His return this month or this season depends on his Triple-A results. Note: Peralta’s numbers above also reflect his career team mark during July.

Price, David - 11-5 (7-1 A)

To date, the Boston lefty could be described as a mild disappointment, with an ERA north of 4.5 most of the season. No longer owning an upper 90's heater, Price does not blow away as many hitters as before and the fastball lacks some of the previous movement of the past. The slider has not had the usual bite from start to start. Red Sox need this ace to be one.

Ross, Tyson - 10-4 (4-1 H)

Ross has not pitched since he hit the DL with right shoulder inflammation after first start in April. San Diego Union reports a return even this month appears optimistic.
Note: Ross’ numbers above also reflect his career team mark during July.

Santana, Ervin - 11-4 (8-1 H)

Like his teammates, Santana is not having a good year, as opposing hitters are clocking him for nearly .300 average, compared to .256 over his 11-year career. Little reason to believe this month will match the past even if he improves with this Twins club.

*Volquez, Edinson - 10-5 (6-1 A)

Never a frontline hurler, Volquez numbers this campaign have matched the Royals, being very ordinary to date. The Dominican Republic native has done the job against right-handed batters, who have been knocking him around for nearly .300 average.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Wood, Alex - 4-8 (0-6 A)

Wood – the only pitcher to appear on the July Bad Month list this season - was initially expected to be shut down for four weeks after landing on the 15-day disabled list at the end of May with a posterior impingement in his throwing elbow. Currently, the timetable is for mid-July return, but the oft-injured pitcher can hardly be counted on as record shows. Note: Wood’’s numbers above reflect his career team mark during July.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Orioles in midst of 16-game Under streak that makes absolutely no sense
By ROB HANSEN

Occasionally in sports things happen that simply don't make sense and in a stat-based sport like baseball the anomalies usually involve numbers. The Baltimore Orioles are currently streaking in a direction that nobody could have predicted with the make-up of their 2016 roster.

The pitching challenged and offensively loaded Orioles have played Under the closing total in a remarkable 16 consecutive games.

We've had our eye on this trend since it hit six games (since even that seemed bizarre for this O's squad) and it's been largely dismissed as "the pitching has been better and the offense is slumping," but 16 games is no longer a small sample size.

The Orioles are averaging 2.81 runs for and 3.19 runs against over their last 16 games. The math geniuses out there will quickly calculate that as 6.00 total runs per game during the streak.

This lack of runs scored comes from a roster that currently owns a .265 batting average in 2016 to go along with a .775 OPS (3rd in MLB). The O's hitters also lead Major League Baseball in home runs with 151 (Toronto Blue Jays are second with 144).

On the flip side, despite having a very good bullpen (3.09 ERA, 36 saves, .238 opponent batting average), their pitching overall in 2016 has been terrible. The O's hurlers (including their solid bullpen) currently possess a 4.21 ERA to go along with an opponent batting average of .261 and an OPS of .758.

Baseball fans outside the DMV area have never really bought into the 2016 Baltimore Orioles as a legitimate threat to win the American League East (pitching is the main reason) and it appears as though the oddsmakers have yet to buy into the O's as a legitimate Under threat.

Over the last 16 games involving the Orioles, the average closing total is 9.156. The lowest total they've seen during the streak were consecutive 8.0 totals against the Tampa Bay Rays back on July 16 and 17. During their just completed three-game series at home against the Colorado Rockies (of course all three games played Under the number) they saw Over/Under numbers of 10.0, 9.5, and 9.0.

Their 16th consecutive Under came against MLB's leader in Overs, the Minnesota Twins (58-37), on Thursday night. The O's lost to the Twins 6-2 with a closing total of 9.0.

On Friday night, the Orioles travel to Toronto to take on the offensively explosive Blue Jays (Kevin Gausman vs Marco Estrada). The total for Friday is set at 9.0.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Mariners (51-49) at Cubs (61-40)

Game: 1
Venue: Wrigley Field
Date: July 29, 2016 2:20 PM EDT

CHICAGO -- The Chicago Cubs' new weapon more than likely will be put in the holster Friday during the opener of an interleague series against the Seattle Mariners at Wrigley Field.

Wednesday was simply a get-acquainted session for Aroldis Chapman. The newly acquired closer entered in the ninth inning and finished off the Cubs' 8-1 win over the Chicago White Sox.

On Thursday, it was strictly business. The left-hander entered in the eighth inning with two outs and a White Sox runner on third in a one-run game. He proceeded to strike out Melky Cabrera, and then he worked a one-two-three ninth en route to his 21st save of the year and first as a Cub.

By pitching two days in a row, including the four-out save Thursday, Chapman isn't likely to be available Friday, however.

Going forward, Chapman's presence -- combined with that of late-inning pitchers Pedro Strop and Hector Rondon -- gives the Cubs an imposing relief force. Rondon spent much of the season as closer, compiling 18 saves.

"Especially with Chapman in the ninth inning, Stropy and me are more free to pitch in tough situations," Rondon said following the Cubs' 3-1 victory over the White Sox on Thursday. "We feel that's a strong bullpen right now."

The Cubs face Seattle right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma (11-6, 3.96 ERA) in Friday's series opener.

The 35-year-old veteran is 10-2 with a 3.69 ERA over his past 12 starts. The Friday start will be Iwakuma's second against the Cubs. He had a no-decision in an eight-inning effort on June 28, 2013.

The Cubs counter with lefty Jon Lester (10-4, 3.09 ERA). He is just 1-1 in his past six starts, but he boasts a 5-2 record and a 2.18 ERA at Wrigley Field this season. In his career against the Mariners, the Tacoma, Wash., native is 5-4 with a 3.52 ERA, although he has not faced them since 2014.

Mariners right fielder Nelson Cruz is expected back in the lineup after the team's off day Thursday. He sat out the Wednesday game in Pittsburgh after fouling a ball off his left shin on Tuesday.

Cruz's return is not good news for Lester. Cruz, who leads the Mariners with 25 home runs, has a .393 average with two doubles, a triple and three homers in 28 at-bats vs. Lester.

Like the Cubs, the Mariners have a new reliever in their bullpen this week. Right-hander Drew Storen was acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays for right-hander Joaquin Benoit late Tuesday night.

Storen made his Mariners debut Wednesday against the Pirates, allowing four runs in 1 1/3 innings.

"I grew up as a big Mariners fan," he told The (Tacoma, Wash.) News Tribune. "So it's kind of cool from the fan's standpoint in me. The team I grew up following. It's great."

Though Storen grew up in Indiana, he was attracted to the Mariners by the presence of future Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr.

"I was all in on Griffey," Storen told the News Tribune. "I had every teal jersey there was. I had the Mariners T-shirt and pillowcase during the playoffs and stuff. I was all in."

The Mariners, who are making just their second trip to Wrigley Field in franchise history, enter the series with a 10-3 interleague record, the best in the major leagues, ahead of the Boston Red Sox (8-3) and the Detroit Tigers (10-4).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Orioles (58-43) at Blue Jays (57-45)

Game: 1
Venue: Rogers Centre
Date: July 29, 2016 7:07 PM EDT

TORONTO -- The Baltimore Orioles made a detour through Minnesota before heading to Toronto for their important three-game series against Blue Jays that opens Friday at Rogers Centre.

The Orioles lost a makeup game 6-2 to the Twins on Thursday night at Target Field and have dropped three in a row, including the final two games of a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies at Camden Yards.

The Blue Jays are second in the American League East, 1 1/2 games behind the Orioles.

Toronto also goes into series on a losing note.

The Blue Jays failed to complete a sweep against the San Diego Padres on Wednesday afternoon and are 3-3 after the first six games of their nine-game homestand.

The Blue Jays changed their rotation Wednesday, preferring to with knuckleballer R.A. Dickey against the Padres on three days' rest and moving Marco Estrada (5-4, 2.94 ERA), and his wonky back, from Wednesday to Friday to face Baltimore. Dickey was not sharp and the Blue Jays lost 8-4.

The move served another purpose.

Russell Martin, who has a sore knee, caught 12 innings of a 7-6 win on Tuesday and was not going to play Wednesday. Josh Thole, Dickey's regular catcher, was going to spell Martin anyway on Wednesday even if Estrada pitched.

"With Russ' knee, he wasn't going to Wednesday no matter what, so that factors, too," Blue Jays manager John Gibbons said. "Now you can catch Thole, and we'll go with our three best guys over the weekend, too. And it gives Marco -- who has had the back issues but feels much better -- another day, too."

In their loss at Minnesota, the Orioles had two runners thrown out at home in the fourth inning. But they also got two hits from Chris Davis, which they hope is an encouraging sign.

Davis has 22 homers for the season but is 5-for-37 with one RBI since the All-Star break, and has not hit a home run since July 10.

Against the Blue Jays, however, Davis is batting .303 with 35 homers and 81 RBIs. He has hit 17 homers at Rogers Centre.

Mark Trumbo, who leads the American League with 30 homers, also has struggled. He went 1-for-4 Thursday and is in a 6-for-44 skid over 12 games, although he did hit home runs Friday and Saturday.

"I think you just have to understand that with power, you're going to have periods where everything's clicking," Davis said, "where you're swinging the bat well, you're driving in runs, and you're going to have periods where you're going to have dry spells. The tough thing about having a guy like Mark right behind me is we both swing and miss a lot. So when one of us is going well, it's good, but when neither one of us is going well, it's bad. I think we just have to grind through it."

The Orioles will start Kevin Gausman (2-7, 3.77 ERA) on Friday.

Gausman is 2-1 with a 3.00 earned-run average in 10 career games, including five starts, against the Blue Jays. In six games, including three starts, Glausman is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA at Rogers Centre.

The Blue Jays won three of four games June 9-12 in the Orioles' first visit to Toronto this season and the teams have won five games each overall.

Estrada missed one start before the All-Star break because of a sore back and returned on July 22, allowing seven hits and two runs over six innings in a 2-1 loss to the Seattle Mariners. It was the first time since April 21 that he had allowed more than five hits in a start, a total of 13 outings. Estrada is 2-1 with a 3.38 ERA in eight career games, including six starts, against the Orioles.