Friday 6/17/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

European Championships TODAY 14:00

Italy

v

Sweden

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ITV		10/11	23/10	4	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
HDNDALHWNWAW​ Most recent​	1 - 0 1 - 1 2 - 1 1 - 0	NWALHDNDHWAD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Sweden have lost just one of their last 11 matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Italy are in a strong position in Group E after their 2-0 victory over Belgium but may struggle to justify favouritism against Sweden. Playing on the counter-attack suits the Italians and makes them a threat against the big teams. They will have to play on the front foot against the Swedes and might not fare as well.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1

 

[superbeets]

European Championships TODAY 17:00

Czech Rep

v

Croatia

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BBC1		15/4	12/5	10/11	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
HLADNWNWHLAL​ Most recent​	2 - 4 1 - 1	AWHWADNWNWNW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Croatia have won seven and drawn the other of their last eight internationals

EXPERT VERDICT: Hugely impressive in a 1-0 win over tidy Turkey, Croatia should have too much nous for the one-dimensional Czechs. The Czechs showed impressive resistance holding off Spain for 87 minutes though that was a performance that said as much about Spain’s limitations in the final third than it did about the Czech Republic.

RECOMMENDATION: Croatia
2

 

[superbeets]

European Championships TODAY 20:00

Spain

v

Turkey

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ITV		4/9	10/3	17/2	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
NDADNWNWNLHW​ Most recent​	2 - 1 1 - 0	HWAWALNWNWNL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Spain have won to nil their last nine competitive matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Spain eventually limped over the line against the Czech Republic and may require patience to see off Turkey. Spain are on a nine-match winning streak in competitive outings and Turkey are going to struggle to be the team that snaps that sequence, but the game’s decisive moment may well arrive in the second half.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw-Spain double result
1

 

[superbeets]

European Championships Sa 18Jun 14:00

Belgium

v

Ireland

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ITV		3/4	11/4	9/2	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
HWALNWHDHWHL​ Most recent​	Unknown	HW*HWHDHDNLHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Ireland have failed to win any of their last four games

EXPERT VERDICT: Ireland should have taken maximum points from the opening game against Sweden and their sense of regret could be increased by a loss to Belgium. Losing to Italy has put Belgium in a tricky position but they can respond against Martin O'Neill's side, who may struggle to reproduce the intensity of their opening performance.

RECOMMENDATION: Belgium
1

 

[superbeets]

European Championships Sa 18Jun 17:00

Iceland

v

Hungary

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BBC1		13/8	21/10	21/10	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
ALALAWALHWAD​ Most recent​	0 - 4 2 - 3 2 - 3 0 - 2	AWHW*HDHDNLNW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Iceland are without a win in their last four competitive internationals

EXPERT VERDICT: What looked like a wooden spoon battle when the draw was made is now anything but. Hungary were hugely impressive against Austria but Iceland will attack them with the spirit that the Austrians lacked. Iceland are all about effort and belief and this looks like being a close call.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1

 

[superbeets]

European Championships Sa 18Jun 20:00

Portugal

v

Austria

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BBC1		4/5	13/5	17/4	More markets

​

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
HLHWNWALNWHD​ Most recent​	Unknown	HLHWHLNWHLNL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Portugal are unbeaten in their last eight competitive internationals

EXPERT VERDICT: Two sides with ground to make up after disappointing results against the Group F lesser lights. Portugal did at least boss their game against Iceland – as Cristiano Ronaldo was quick to remind us – and they seem to have more of a cutting edge than Austria.

RECOMMENDATION: Portugal
1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Euro 2016 betting cheat sheet and odds: Turkish Delight for Spain?

Group play at Euro2016 continues, as teams get into their second fixtures they're either looking to clinch a berth into the knockout stage or looking to keep their hopes of advancing alive.

Swede Revenge for Italy?

Italy (-120) will be looking to avenge a costly draw 12 years earlier when it tangles with Sweden (+395) in Group E action Friday against Sweden in Toulouse. The Italians likely haven’t forgotten their 2004 Euro encounter with the Swedes, who earned a 1-1 draw that helped eliminate Italy from competition. The Italians are riding high after opening their 2016 tournament with an incredible 2-0 win over Belgium. The Swedes struggled to a draw with Ireland in their opener, and were fortunate to escape with a point.


Turkish Delight for Spain?

Fresh off a dominant yet unnerving win in its opener, Spain (-240) looks to secure a berth in the Round of 16 Friday as it takes on Turkey (+750) at Stade de Nice. The Spaniards showed brilliant passing, but needed a late goal from Gerard Pique to upend the Czech Republic 1-0 in their Group D opener. The Turkish side is coming off a 1-0 defeat at the hands of Croatia, and were fortunate not to lose by multiple goals. Turkey finished the game with just nine attempts on goal, and only two reached the ‘keeper.

Clash of the (Unexpected) Titans

Two teams coming off surprisingly strong results face off Saturday at Stade Velodrome in Marseille as upstart Iceland (+155) faces a former world power in Hungary (+200). The Icelanders posted the most stunning result of the first match day, fending off repeated attacks to preserve a 1-1 draw with Portugal. They’ll tangle with a Hungarian side that looked formidable from start to finish en route to a 2-0 victory over rival Austria. A Hungary victory in its second Group F match will earn it a spot in the Round of 16.

News and Notes

* Iceland defender Kari Arnason has a message for Portuguese star Cristiano Ronaldo: Lionel Messi is better than you. Arnason lashed out after Ronaldo criticized Iceland for its exuberant celebration following its draw with Portugal.

* Italy appears set to make lineup changes despite a strong showing in its opener. Winger Matteo Darmian was removed from the game after a pivotal turnover, while midfielder Daniele De Rossi appeared fatigued and may give way to Thiago Motta.

Injury Updates

* Italian forward Graziano Pelle has been cleared to face Sweden on Friday after suffering a foot injury in the opener against Belgium. Pelle, who scored Italy’s second goal against Belgium, sat out Tuesday’s training session.

* Turkey midfielder Mehmet Topal and defender Gokhan Gonul may be out of action for Friday’s encounter with Spain. Topal is dealing with a right injury while Gonul has been felled by a stomach problem.

Weather Watch

Friday’s Italy-Sweden contest faces the threat of rain, with temperatures in the low-70s. Czech Republic-Croatia and Spain Turkey appear to be in the clear, with temperatures ranging from the high-50s to the mid-60s.

Saturday’s matches should remain dry. Belgium-Ireland will see temperatures in the high-60s, Iceland-Hungary will be in the mid-60s at kickoff and Portugal-Austria will be slightly cooler, with the mercury dipping into the low-60s.

Props of the Day

* Italy-Sweden, First Goal Scorer: Zlatan Ibrahimovic (+550): Ibrahimovic will need to be the best player on either side for the Swedes to have a chance. Expect Zlatan to convert at some point in this one - and it’s worth taking a shot on him putting Sweden in front.

* Iceland-Hungary, Half Time/Full Time: Draw-Draw (+300): Oddsmakers expect this one to be a closely-contested match, with Iceland only a slight favorite. It may not be the most exciting prop, but a double draw is a tantalizing play here.

Key Stats/Trends

* Italy has 10 victories and seven draws in 23 all-time meetings with Sweden.

* Spain has lost just twice in 11 encounters with Turkey, whose last win in the head-to-head series came back in 1967.

* Hungary has won five consecutive meetings with Iceland and has claimed seven of the 10 meetings all-time.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Euro Tip Sheet
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

Group E - Italy vs. Sweden

Date: Friday, June 17
Location: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
TV/Time: ESPN, 9:00 a.m. ET

The team who pulled out the best result in the opening round of group matches at Euro 2016 were arguably Italy, who put in an expert counter-attacking perforamnce to see off Belgium by two goals to nil.

Sweden, meanwhile, drew 1-1 with the Republic of Ireland in a match many believed they needed to win. But despite having Zlatan Ibrahimovic in their team, the Swedes needed a relatively late Ciaran Clark on goal to rescue them a point. They looked extremely average and will need to improve in tougher matches to qualify for the last 16.

The onus will be on 10/11 Italy to attack whtn the two sides play each other, and this may be more of a hindrance than a help. Shorn of Marco Verratti Italy’s midfield has a functional look about it with few ball-players. However their defence is extremely solid and they are unlikely to concede more than one. A draw is not a disaster for either team, and is a decent price at 23/10. A Sweden win is 4/1.

Prediction: Draw at 23/10

Group D - Czech Republic vs. Croatia

Date: Friday, June 17
Location: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
TV/Time: ESPN, 9:00 a.m. ET

The first two games in this group both ended 1-0, with Spain seeing off Czech Republic and Croatia beating Turkey. The Czechs held out for 87 minutes before Gerard Pique finally scored the goal that sunk them, while Luka Modric scored the goal of the tournament so far for the Croats.

Czech Republic are far from the worst team at the tournament as their resolute display against Spain showed, but in this match they will have to be more open, and that could play into Croatia’s hands. With Modric, Ivan Rakitic and Ivan Perisic, Croatia can create lots of chances, and the focal point of all of these is Mario Mandzukic.

Mandzukic had several chances to score against Turkey, and though he did not get on the scoresheet in Paris he is worth sticking with at 9/2 to break the deadlock today. The Juventus man scored three of his side’s four goals at Euro 2012, and four years on he is still their first choice centre-forward. Croatia are 10/11 to win with the Czechs available at 15/4. A draw is 12/5.

Prediction: Mario Mandzukic to score first at 9/2

Group D - Spain vs. Turkey

Date: Friday, June 17
Location: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
TV/Time: ESPN, 9:00 a.m. ET

Spain’s 1-0 win against Czech Republic was left very late, and came against a team who showed very little attacking intent. That will be different when Vicente del Bosque’s side meet Turkey in the last match on Friday. Turkey, having lost to Croatia and being, in any case, a relatively bold team, will look to press Spain a lot more.

If it works out, their style will not be too dissimilar from that employed by Holland and Chile in the 2014 World Cup. Both these teams saw off Spain, who were at that point World and European Champions, with ease.

Despite dominating the ball, Spain were not very incisive aganist Czech Republic, and they do not tend to score that many goals anyway. For them, it is often says, dominating the ball is a defensive tactic, not an attacking one.

At 17/2 Turkey are worth a punt. They are a fair bit stronger than the Czechs and play in a style that the 4/9 favourites may find difficult.

Prediction: Turkey at 17/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Sky (5-6) at Dream (7-3)

Date: June 17, 2016 7:30 PM EDT

The first-place Atlanta Dream play host to the Chicago Sky on Friday in a battle of two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference.

The surprising Dream (7-3) were picked to finish 11th in the 12-team WNBA in preseason rankings. They added several new faces while building around their core of Angel McCoughtry, Tiffany Hayes and Sancho Lyttle but had plenty of question marks entering the season.

The addition of point guard Layshia Clarendon and forward Elizabeth Williams have helped answer some of the questions.

McCoughtry, Hayes, Clarendon and Williams are averaging double figures in scoring for the Dream.

One of the Dream's losses was the Sky's gain. Forward Erika de Souza spent several seasons with Atlanta before being traded to Chicago last July as a part of a three-team deal. She is averaging 6.9 points and 6.2 rebounds per game this season.

Big things were expected of the Sky, with reigning MVP Elena Delle Donne returning. Chicago (5-6) has dropped its last two games, though, to fall into third place in the Eastern Conference.

Delle Donne is averaging 17.6 points per game this season. Veteran guard Cappie Pondexter is second on the team in scoring, averaging 13.5 points per game.

The Dream beat the Sky 87-81 on May 22 behind 21 points from McCoughtry and 15 points and eight rebounds from Clarendon. Williams blocked five shots in the win.

The Sky had beaten the Dream in their previous three meetings.

Williams is leading the WNBA in blocks and is coming off a 20-point, 10-rebound effort in the Dream's win over Connecticut on Sunday.

McCoughtry had 18 points in the win over the Sun. She has scored in double figures in 25 straight games and is second in the WNBA in scoring, averaging 20.3 points per game.

The Sky are coming off a 98-85 loss at the Los Angeles Sparks on Tuesday. Pondexter had 20 points and Delle Donne finished with 15 points on 4-of-12 shooting from the field.

The Dream will be without Lyttle on Friday against Chicago. Lyttle, the team's leading rebounder, is playing with Spain's national team in Olympic qualifying.

Atlanta leads the WNBA in rebounding and Chicago is second.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Fever (4-7) at Stars (2-7)

Date: June 17, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

Indiana is searching for chemistry in an effort to stabilize an uneven start to the season. San Antonio knows the feeling.

The Fever host the Stars on Friday in a battle of two struggling squads looking to turn around disappointing starts. Indiana (4-7) has lost three straight to drop into sixth place in the Eastern Conference. The Stars (2-7) broke a four-game slide with an upset of Seattle on Tuesday, but remain in last place in the top-heavy Western Conference.

Neither team has been able to find any consistency on the offensive side of the court. San Antonio is shooting 40.6 percent from the field and averaging the fewest points in the league (70.7). Indiana isn't much better, shooting 40.0 percent and averaging 78.5 points.

The Stars are led by former Notre Dame star Kayla McBride, who leads the team with 17.1 points. No other San Antonio player is averaging double figures in points. But the Stars looked better in their win over Seattle. Moriah Jefferson scored a career-high 19 points, and Dearica Hamby had 15 points and 18 rebounds in a 77-70 win over a Storm team that upended Indiana last week.

Indiana is coming off an 87-63 blowout loss to unbeaten and defending-champion Minnesota on Tuesday. The Fever lost to the Lynx in last season's WNBA Finals.

Rookie Tiffany Mitchell leads the Fever in scoring at 13.4 points, and veteran Tamika Catchings is averaging 11.3 points. But coach Stephanie White, who has announced this will be her last season with the Fever, isn't happy about the team's togetherness or effort.

"We are a team on a journey, a journey to find cohesiveness," White told reporters after losing to Seattle at home on Sunday. "We have to find our rotations and we have to find cohesion on both ends of the floor. That is going to take time, and I'm OK with that. But what we can't have is lack of effort."

The Fever is 3-3 at home this season, but has beaten San Antonio in five of the last seven meetings. The Stars did win the last meeting, however, crushing the Fever 80-62 last July.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Mercury (4-6) at Sparks (10-0)

Date: June 17, 2016 10:30 PM EDT

The Los Angeles Sparks will try to keep their perfect record intact when they play host to the Phoenix Mercury on Friday Night at Staples Center in Los Angeles, Calif.

Los Angeles (10-0) has an opportunity to match the idle Minnesota Lynx (11-0), who broke their own WNBA record for most wins to start a season. Minnesota won't play again until Sunday.

"We want to be the ones to go in there and ruin that for them by giving them their first loss, so hopefully we can do that," Phoenix forward Candice Dupree said on the team website.

Phoenix (4-6) has won two in a row after losing six of eight to start the season. The Mercury is coming off an 86-80 victory over the Chicago Sky. Diana Taurasi, the WNBA scoring leader at 24.1 points per game, scored 31 points in that contest to help her team overcome a 14-point deficit.

Los Angeles is also coming off a win over Chicago. The Sparks beat the Sky 98-85 on Tuesday. Nneka Ogwumike recorded her sixth double-double of the season, posting 27 points and 12 rebounds to help the Sparks set a franchise record with their 10th consecutive victory to start the season.

Ogwumike missed her first shot of the second half against Chicago after setting a WNBA record with 23 consecutive made field goals over a span of three games. She leads the league in field-goal percentage, shooting a scorching 70.4 percent.

Ogwumike is fifth in the WNBA in scoring and fourth in rebounding, averaging 18.4 points and 9.2 rebounds per game. Teammates Kristi Toliver and Candace Parker rank third and fourth, respectively, in 3-point shooting. Toliver is shooting 46.2 percent from beyond the arc. Parker is shooting 44.1 percent.

This is the first meeting of the year between Los Angeles and Phoenix.

If Los Angeles beats Phoenix and Minnesota beats Seattle (4-7) on Sunday, both teams will be unbeaten when they collide for the first time on Tuesday at Staples Center. They will clash again three days later at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minn.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Century Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Post: 7:05 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 48 - Purse:$3800 - MAIDEN CLAIMING 7000


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 IS SANTA REAL 5/1


# 8 WAZZUP BUTTERCUP 6/1


# 9 CENALTA JADE 10/1


IS SANTA REAL looks nice to best this field of starters. Positive feeling - competing well enough to contend in this race. WAZZUP BUTTERCUP - She has been racing strongly and the TrackMaster Speed Ratings are among the most competitive in the grouping. With this driver/trainer hooking up, gamblers often make mucho dinero. ROI is exemplary with this combination. CENALTA JADE - The handicapping group saw this horse's name on a t-shirt. Call it our coffee house play, worth a small bet.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Tioga Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Post: 6:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 67 - Purse:$4000 - NON-WINNERS OF 1 PM RACE


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 GOLD STAR ROGER 7/2


# 7 SANDY'S FLIGHT 4/1


# 3 DIAMOND LILY 6/1


The play for this one is GOLD STAR ROGER. Feel the need for speed, this horse has been turning in some outstanding TrackMaster Speed Ratings averaging around 67. Many harness players will recognize the stellar speed rating in the last outing. Stacks up against any horse in this race. Hands down the best hole at Tioga Downs is the 5. The win percentage is very good. SANDY'S FLIGHT - Had one of the most respectable TrackMaster Speed Ratings of the field of horses in her last outing. A good idea to use in your wagers. DIAMOND LILY - Might be there at a good price tag. Positively one to keep in your exotics.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Emerald Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6400 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 1, 2016 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 SIR GAWAIN 6/1


# 8 BRUTALLY HANDSOME 20/1


# 1 FINANCIAL DISTRICT 7/2


I've got to go with SIR GAWAIN. He has been running quite well recently while recording solid Equibase Speed Figures. Has to be considered based on the solid speed rating earned in the last race. Has performed very well recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 79 avg speed rating. FINANCIAL DISTRICT - This gelding looks very good for this event since Metz has a sharp win percentage with horses going this distance. Has a strong shot for this event if you like back class.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $18000 Class Rating: 79

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR THREE YEAR OLDS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE MAY 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 DEVIOUS MADDY 7/2


# 3 OUR SISTER ANIA 5/1


# 2 STARSHIP SASSY 2/1


I give the nod to DEVIOUS MADDY here. With a reliable jockey who has won at a solid 21 percent rate over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top choices. Will most likely come out strong - I have liked the way this mare has moved sharply to the lead recently. With a nice class fig average of 92, has one of the most favorable class advantages in this group of horses. OUR SISTER ANIA - Earnings per start in turf route races is solid for this equine. Over time, this handler has a very good ROI at this distance/surface. STARSHIP SASSY - With a sound 77 average Equibase speed fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's outing. Put up a very good Equibase Speed Fig last time out.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Santa Anita - Race #5 - Post: 3:35pm - Starter Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#9 UNUSUAL STYLE (ML=8/1)
#3 SCATTAGIRL (ML=5/2)


UNUSUAL STYLE - When Cerin gives Ercegovic a leg up on any magnificent animal, you got to know that with their win percent you have much more than a fighting chance. This horse may have too much power on the grass for the rest of the field. When the field turns for home, she could put these away. Have to give this horse a good look. In recent races, has posted the best speed ratings on the turf at this distance. This horse should make a move coming out of the turn. Great late early speed This mare's last speed rating is lofty enough to triumph here, I'll invest in her right back today. SCATTAGIRL - Prat and Powell getting together are a punter's friend. Have to give this filly a good shot. Ran a solid effort last time around the track within the last 30 days.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BROOKES ALL MINE (ML=3/1), #6 LOB CITY (ML=9/2), #5 HALO DARLIN (ML=5/1),

BROOKES ALL MINE - It's a big jump to win in a Maiden Claiming race and then step up and beat winners. LOB CITY - This entrant ran a mediocre speed figure last race out. She shouldn't run better and will likely get beat in today's event running that fig. HALO DARLIN - Be apprehensive of this three-year old versus older. Will do better with more experience.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - UNUSUAL STYLE - Last time is deceiving, better than it looked. Will give a nice performance this time.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#9 UNUSUAL STYLE is going to be the play if we are getting 8/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,9]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
9 with 3 with [2,5,7] Total Cost: $3

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Thistledown - Race #2 - Post: 1:25pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,300 Class Rating: 67

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 SWEETONRICH (ML=8/1)
#6 PROTHOE (ML=3/1)


SWEETONRICH - This mare's last race was back on Aug 15th but I do believe she can run a good one coming off a vacation. This jockey and conditioner have a lucrative return on investment when they join forces. Ran in the last race against a better field at Thistledown. The move down in class ranks should suit her well. PROTHOE - Gonzalez rode this thoroughbred for the initial time last race out and comes right back in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 LAINEY LUCK (ML=7/2), #3 CHANG (ML=4/1), #4 ALPHABET TIME (ML=5/1),

LAINEY LUCK - This mount likes to land in the top three, but doesn't usually win. Don't play in the top spot. This mare didn't do much last time. CHANG - The speed figs continue to decline, 66/63/60. Not a good omen. Recorded a disappointing rating in the last race in a $4,000 Claiming race on June 3rd. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that fig. ALPHABET TIME - This equine doesn't have a winner's attitude. Almost always finishes in the place or show spot. 5/1 is too short of a value to take on most any thoroughbred that has run poorly in back to back races. Could be tough for this entrant to beat this group off of that last speed fig. Not probable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's Equibase class figure, so put her on the likely underlays list.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SWEETONRICH - I like to check out the TrackMaster Platinum PPs to look for the top horse in earnings per start. This race horse looks good to me so I'm making a prime wager on her.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #7 SWEETONRICH on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #8 - BELMONT PARK - 6:49 PM EASTERN POST

8½ FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $80,000.00 OPTIONAL CLAIMING $85,000.00 PURSE

#6 UNBRIDLED JUAN
#4 TOLEDO EDDIE
#3 DONTBETWITHBRUNO
#1 MYLUTE

#6 UNBRIDLED JUAN is the pace profile leader in this O.C. field racing at, or about, today's distance of 8½ furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in each of his last five starts, with no finish worse than 2nd, including a pair of "POWER RUN WIN" in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Javier Castellano has been in his irons on three previous occasions, hitting the board in each, winning twice, and is back today here in Elmont for his 4th ride, gunning for a "Hat Trick Win." #4 TOLEDO EDDIE has won half of his 14 starts racing at, or about, today's distance on the dirt, and has posted a quartet of "Circle Trips" in his last five outings, with two of those victories also qualifying as "POWER RUN WINS."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Friday 6/17 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 2/1,3,6/7,9/1,2,5,8/3,5,7 = $14.40

EARLY PICK 4: 1,2,5,8/3,5,7/7,8,9/6 = $36

LATE PICK 4: 3,6,8/1,6,9/2,3,9/6,8 = $54

MEET STATS: 128 - 414 / $712.20 BEST BETS: 22 - 39 / $79.10

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 39 / $40.90

Best Bet: SASS (1st)

Spot Play: TOPVILLE CHEETAH (8th)


Race 1

(2) SASS comes off two sharp wins and faces similar from a good post. A threepeat is likely here. (6) P L JERICO adds Lasix off a decent effort and should be the main competition to the choice here. (3) CHESTNUT SCHOFIELD faces better here but can stick around for a share after racing from close range. (4) SOUTHWIND STRYKER takes money at the windows every week but he seems to be a fringe player in here.

Race 2

(6) ST LADS SMOKIN HOT comes off a solid mile where she was passed late by a filly taking a new life's mark. She fits this Grassroots class and should be tough here. (3) REIS STAR COSS had a bit of a lucky trip to win last time, but the rapid improvement shown recently makes her a contender here. (1) HEAVENLY BET has only missed the board once south of the border this year and should transfer that good form here and contend racing close up. (7) BERNADETTE is capable of grabbing a minor share here closing from the back of the field late.

Race 3

(7) BOURBON SEELSTER seemed to be struggling around the final turn last time while going a long trip. She came on again after straightening out in a brave effort and can double up here with a slightly better trip. (9) GOLDEN IDOL roared up to take a new life's mark in her first Mohawk start and is clearly the one to beat here, but she may be overbet and does need to overcome her outer post. (1) MAXIM SEELSTER had an improved effort last time and could get even closer here starting from the inside. (2) P L JASMINE is capable of leaving better and working out a trip that gets her a share here.

Race 4

(5) C S EYE didn't fare well from the worst post on a wet track facing better at Georgian but if he can come close to replicating his race here two back he could be very tough to beat here. (8) BEIBER HANOVER rocketed home to beat similar last time and looks like a must-use to kick off this Pick 4. (1) YOURE MY HERO should get a much better trip here with the improved post which makes him a dangerous rival to the top two. (2) VEROI BAYAMA has good enough early speed to land a spot near the front and he could trip out here; another to consider for the early Pick 4.

Race 5

(3) KAYS SHADOW rounded into form with a solid win just in time for the first Grassroots race of the season and should be a major player in here now that she's on her game. (7) MACHIODA wasn't far behind the choice last time and can use her good leaving ability to land a spot near the front early; using. (5) WATT MACHS ME WIN improved last time in his third start for Moreau and she could pop up with an even better effort here. (1) FOREVER LIZA is another that has improved in her past two starts. Trainer Steacy had a Grassroots winner here Monday night.

Race 6

(8) BUTTERMILK HANOVER had a tightener for this now picks up a catch driver that has won with her before. She should get a solid pace to stalk; call to upset. (7) LADYHARDT knows where the wire is and brings a good record north with her. She should be a strong contender from on or near the lead. (9) BAD IN PARADISE had to pace a 27 flat third 1/4 to get into contention then she tired late. She can threaten here at a price. (1) ALPHABET QUEEN will likely be gunning for the front early here and could better this prediction if she can steal a breather at some point.

Race 7

(6) NOONE TO DEPEND ON faces much easier here and the only concern is the three weeks that she has missed. If she is fit enough, she should beat these. (4) MISS BABE DELIGHT left hard then took a shuffle last time in a quick mile. She can contend here off that decent effort and is the one most likely to benefit if the choice falters. (5) WESTLUCKYCAM is another that looks like a top contender on paper but has missed time. This is a tricky final leg to the early Pick 4. (2) SODWANA BAY was an easier winner vs. lesser but she could work out a pretty good trip here.

Race 8

(3) TOPVILLE CHEETAH raced better last time and will now likely get sent for a spot near the front early here. She should be a square price and can win this with a trip. (6) CRACKLIN ROSIE and (8) DIVAS IMAGE both exit good performances in an OSS Gold event but you have to wonder what is on tap for them in the coming weeks and the kinds of trips they might get tonight. (4) COTTONWOOD CREEK has been doing well out of town and has been competitive here before in these classes.

Race 9

(1) THISOTHAT HANOVER went a huge trip last time after breaking. If she minds her manners she can beat these, but tread lightly if she is a short price. (9) PARKLANE GLAMOROUS has been sharp for several weeks in a row and is sure to be put into the race from the outset here. She's the one to beat. (6) TEMPUS SEELSTER is in with a chance here if she gets a steer similar to the one Henry gave her two starts back, which is very possible. (4) EVANGELIN SEELSTER gets a good post to work with here and should stick around for a share.

Race 10

(2) GLORIOUS DELIGHT had a race over the track where she closed some ground late now she moves inside and should get a far more aggressive steer here; top call. (3) BAD LIGHTNING was forced to pace a 28 2/5 second 1/4 to make front last time and that took its toll late on her. She could be closer at the finish here but note the 0 for 21 lifetime record. (9) QUEENOFTHEJUNGLE paced her back 1/2 in 55 flat in her first race in months and it wouldn't be a shock to see Henry send this one quickly off the gate with that mile under her belt. (4) HOPE AND FAITH will likely follow along for a share here if she behaves.

Race 11

(6) CALL ME MAYBE was held up in a lot of traffic last time while the winner was getting away. She flew home late and should be a top contender in this field considering her current sharpness. (8) DOCTOR TERROR wasn't far behind the choice in an improved effort and she could be all set for a top try now. (5) MOREMUNKYBUSINESS was brave in victory last time but may need to find more late speed to beat both of the two above here. (1) AMAZING CONTROL can leave quickly and stick around for a piece here.