Friday 4/14/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Friday, April 14

Canadiens got blanked at home by New York in Game 1; Montreal won six of last eight games with the Rangers; road team won six of those eight games. New York lost three of last five games in the Bell Centre. Over is 3-2-1 in last six series games. Rangers snapped 4-game road losing streak Wednesday; they’re 3-5 in last eight games overall- their last four games stayed under. Canadiens won six of last nine games; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11. Rangers won their last four first round series; Montreal missed playoffs LY- they split last six first round series, over last eight years.

Home side won seven of last eight Columbus-Pittsburgh games; Blue Jackets lost five of last six games in Steel City. Under is 6-3 in last nine series games. Jackets lost seven of last eight games overall, six of last seven on road- under is 8-2-1 in their last 11. Pittsburgh won its last three home games; they won Stanley Cup LY, won their first round series three of last four years- this is their 10th year in row in playoffs. Columbus is in playoffs for just third time, first time since 2014; their coach won Stanley Cup with Tampa Bay in 2004.

St Louis was outshot 52-26 in Game 1 but won 2-1 in OT, scoring at 17:48 of OT- they won six of last eight games with Minnesota, three of last five played in Twin Cities. Over is 3-3-1 in last seven series games. Blues won seven of last nine games, four of last five on road. Minnesota won four of its last five games- they outhit Blues 35-18 in Game 1, a good sign. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Blues are in playoffs for 6th straight year; they lost first round series three of last four years. Minnesota is in playoffs for 5th year in row; they’re 4-3 overall in first round series.

Edmonton had 9-game home winning streak snapped in OT in Game 1; they’ve won eight of last ten overall- over is 3-1-1 in its last five. Sharks lost six of last seven road games, but won three of last five overall (under 4-1). Edmonton is in playoffs for first time since 2006, when they lost Cup final; they’ve lost four of last five first round series. San Jose lost Stanley Cup final LY; they’re 9-3 in last 12 first round series. Oilers won three of last four games with San Jose- they also won three of last five visits here; road side won five of last eight series games. Over is 3-2-2 in last seven series games.

First round series:
East
Washington-Toronto
3-2 Wash OT
Pittsburgh-Columbus
Pitt 3-1
Montreal-NY Rangers
NYR 2-0
Ottawa-Boston
Bos 2-1

West
Chicago-Nashville
Nash 1-0
Minnesota-St Louis
StL 2-1 ot
Anaheim-Calgary
Ana, 3-2
Edmonton-San Jose
SJ 3-2 ot

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Friday, April 14

Friday's NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Preview and Odds

The Pittsburgh Penguins won as a home favorite Wednesday despite losing starting goaltender Matt Murray during pregame warmups.

Three of the four series' to hit the ice on Friday night for Game 2 featured upsets in the series openers, with the Pittsburgh Penguins being the only team to hold serve at home in Game 1. We break down all the matchups to help you 'cap the Stanley Cup Playoffs like a pro.

New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens (-150, 5)

Rangers lead series 1-0.

ABOUT THE RANGERS (49-28-2-4, 40-37 O/U): The New York Rangers owned the league's best record away from home and carried that success into their opening game of the postseason. Fresh off a 2-0 victory behind netminder Henrik Lundqvist, the Rangers look to take command of their Eastern Conference first-round series when they visit the Montreal Canadiens in Game 2 on Friday night. It's not often Lundqvist when is considered the "other" goalie in any series, but his regular-season mark of 4-9-2 with a 3.97 goals-against average at Bell Centre and the presence of Price had many observers tilting the odds in Montreal's favor. "We didn't put out there that Hank is going to have a hard time here," New York coach Alain Vigneault said. "We've always had a lot of confidence in his game and what he did (Wednesday) was what we expected." Lundqvist registered 31 saves for his 10th shutout in the postseason, which are the most among active netminders.

ABOUT THE CANADIENS (47-27-7-2, 29-39 O/U: While some media outlets are already labeled Friday's game a must-win for the Canadiens to avoid heading back to New York in an 0-2 hole, goaltender Carey Price was not ready to sound the alarm. “It’s just one game,” Price said. “It’s a seven-game series and we weren’t going to win 16 straight games. We would have liked to. You know, we got what we got and we’re going to move forward." The inability to dent Lundqvist revived memories of Montreal's six-game loss to Tampa Bay in the conference semifinals two years ago, when the Canadiens scored five goals in their four losses. Coach Claude Julien said there would be no lineup changes following Wednesday's practice, which focused on players setting up screens and working on deflections and rebounds. "There were a couple of chances where we got pucks to the net and rebounds were sitting there," captain Max Pacioretty said. "We've got to dig a little bit deeper to come up with those type of chances."

LINE HISTORY: The desperate Canadiens opened as -140 favorites and have been bet up to -150. Oddsmakers pegged the total for Game 1 at 5.

INJURY REPORT:

Rangers - No injuries to report.

Canadiens - D A. Emelin (Doubtful, lower body).

TRENDS:

* Rangers are 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win.
* Canadiens are 11-2 in their last 13 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game.
* Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 overall.
* Under is 8-1-3 in Canadiens last 12 vs. Metropolitan.
* Road team is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins (-165, 5.5)

Penguins lead series 1-0.

ABOUT THE BLUE JACKETS (50-25-6-2, 32-45 O/U): Brandon Saad looks to atone from a porous performance in Game 1, one that saw the 24-year-old Pittsburgh native limited to just 1:45 of ice time in the third period. "When I do get out there, I'll do my best and try to help the team win," Saad said following Thursday's practice. "It's (Tortorella's) job to put the team out there that he thinks will get the job done. For me, that's out of my control. ... It's do-or-die here. So every game, it's a clean slate." Sergei Bobrovsky would like to wipe the slate clean, as the former Vezina Trophy winner has yielded 16 goals during his five-game losing skid.

ABOUT THE PENGUINS (51-21-6-5, 47-31 O/U): Pittsburgh Penguins coach Mike Sullivan appeared at ease shuffling veteran Marc-Andre Fleury in the crease in place of injured goaltender Matt Murray, and the Columbus Blue Jackets don't seem too fazed by the switch, either. After excelling as a last-minute replacement, Fleury has been confirmed to start on Friday in Game 2 of the first-round series at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh. Phil Kessel is off to a fast start in the postseason after enjoying quite the playoffs last spring in which he led Pittsburgh in both goals (10) and points (22). The 29-year-old scored a power-play goal and assisted on Bryan Rust's second-period tally to record his sixth multi-point performance in 25 career playoff games with the Penguins. Rust, who missed Thursday's practice due to a maintenance day, has been quite comfortable in the Steel City during the playoffs with four goals in his last five home games.

LINE HISTORY: The Penguins opened as -165 favorites and the moneyline has yet to move. The total hit the board at 5.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Blue Jackets - LW L. Sedlak (Out Indefinitely, upper body), D R. Murray (Late April, hand), RW D. Clarkson (Out Indefinitely, back).

Penguins - D C. Ruhwedel (Questionable, upper body), G M. Murray (Out, lower body), LW C. Kunitz (Out Indefinitely, lower body), D K. Letang (Out For Season, neck), LW C. Hagelin (Late April, lower body).

TRENDS:

* Blue Jackets are 1-7 in their last 8 overall.
* Penguins are 4-0 in their last 4 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Under is 7-1-1 in Blue Jackets last 9 road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Penguins last 5 vs. Metropolitan.
* Home team is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.



St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild (-200, 5)

Blues lead series 1-0.

ABOUT THE BLUES (47-29-5-2, 34-36 O/U): Allen was especially strong in the second and third periods when he stopped all 34 shots as his teammates managed to get just 12 on Minnesota goalie Devan Dubnyk. “They were throwing a lot at me, but my job is to stop the puck and give the boys a chance,” Allen told reporters. “A lot of shots from tough angles (and) I did a pretty decent job of keeping pucks away from their players.” Defenseman Alex Pietrangelo finished with team highs of five shots on goal and 34 minutes, 30 seconds of ice time Wednesday.

ABOUT THE WILD (49-25-7-2, 42-32 O/U): The Minnesota Wild will take a repeat effort with a little more finishing touch when they host the St. Louis Blues on Friday night for Game 2 of their Western Conference first-round series. Zach Parise gave Minnesota a chance by scoring off a nifty Mikko Koivu touch pass with 22.7 seconds left in regulation Wednesday for his 31st career playoff goal in 90 games. Parise led the way with seven shots while leading scorer Mikael Granlund along with Jason Zucker and Charlie Coyle finished with six each in the series opener. Zucker told the media: “There are a few tweaks that we’ll make, but we’ve got to bring the same intensity and that same grit to our game and push for 60 minutes to be a little harder around the net.”

LINE HISTORY: The Wild opened as big -200 favorites and the moneyline has yet to move. The total opened at 5.

INJURY REPORT:

Blues - C P. Stastny (Questionable, foot), RW N. Yakupov (Questionable, undisclosed), D R. Bortuzzo (Out Indefinitely, upper body), C R. Fabbri (Out For Season, knee).

Wild - D V. Bartley (Out Indefinitely, tricep).

TRENDS:

* Blues are 7-1 in their last 8 road games.
* Wild are 1-7 in their last 8 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.
* Under is 13-3-3 in Blues last 19 vs. Western Conference.
* Under is 6-1 in Wild last 7 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
* Blues are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.



San Jose Sharks at Edmonton Oilers (-155, 5)

Sharks lead series 1-0.

ABOUT THE SHARKS (47-29-6-1, 22-37 O/U): The Sharks welcomed Logan Couture back to the lineup after the center missed the final seven games of the regular season with a facial injury. Another injured forward could return Friday in Joe Thornton, who sat out the last three regular-season contests as well as the series opener due to a knee issue. Couture registered one shot and won three of his five faceoffs over 20 minutes, 41 seconds of ice time in his first game since March 25 but was not pleased with his performance. "I was just off with timing and stickhandling and making plays, receiving passes," the 28-year-old told reporters. "Everything wasn't there. I wasn't very effective, but happy to get a game under my belt." Defenseman Marc-Edouard Vlasic led San Jose with two points (both assists) in Game 1 after registering 12 (one goal) in 24 contests during the team's run to the Stanley Cup Final last postseason.

ABOUT THE OILERS (47-26-5-5, 32-42 O/U): The Edmonton Oilers appeared on their way to victory in their first playoff game since 2006 but squandered the opportunity and lost in overtime. Edmonton will get the chance to even their Western Conference first-round series when it hosts the San Jose Sharks for Game 2 on Friday. Captain Connor McDavid notched an assist in the series opener after ending the regular season with a 14-game point streak - the longest in the NHL in 2016-17. The 20-year-old recorded 100 points to join Wayne Gretzky as the only players in franchise history to capture the Art Ross Trophy. Defenseman Adam Larsson, who tied teammate Eric Gryba by delivering a game-high eight hits, did not participate in Thursday's practice.

LINE HISTORY: Edmonton opened as -165 home favorites and some Sharks action has pushed the line down to -155. The total hit the board at 5.

INJURY REPORT:

Sharks - C J. Thornton (Questionable, knee).

Oilers - D A. Ference (Out For Season, hip), RW T. Pitlick (Out For Season, knee).

TRENDS:

* Sharks are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Oilers are 9-1 in their last 10 home games.
* Over is 3-0-3 in Sharks last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 5-0-1 in Oilers last 6 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
* Road team is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DAVE COKIN

SHARKS VS. OILERS
PLAY: SHARKS +135

Like most folks who follow the NHL, I’m impressed with the upwardly mobile advances made this season by the Edmonton Oilers. It’s hard not to envision this franchise being a serious contender in coming years with the presence of the amazing Connor McDavid and an improving supporting cast.

But I also felt that the Oilers might have a tough time getting out of the first round in this season’s playoffs. I think Edmonton is just as talented as San Jose. But the vast advantage in post-season experience is all Sharks, and I thought that really showed in Game One.

The Oilers looked great early and took command by scoring the first two goals. But from that point on, this game was a total blowout, as San Jose dominated every aspect of the game. So it was no surprise when the Sharks forced the overtime and then skated away with the 3-2 victory.

The pressure tonight is all on the team that simply hasn’t been here before. Making matters worse for the Oilers is the fact that most of these San Jose players have been through this grind before. I don’t see much chance the Sharks will simply be satisfied with winning the opener and wresting home ice advantage from the Oilers.

Edmonton is certainly capable of rebounding and winning not only Game Two, but the series as well. But the Oilers will have to prove to me they can handle what is now an enormous amount of pressure in what has to be perceived as a must-win game. Under those conditions, I have to side with San Jose as a well priced underdog this evening.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sleepyj

Cubs -1.5 +110

Tough series for the Cubs with LA leaving town, but the Pirates had a tough series with the Reds and a odd make up game with the Red Sox yesterday....Kinda threw a wrench in the travel plans for the Pirates IMO....Pirates have now lost 4 in a row and they haven't scored more than 3 runs in those 4 losses..cubs on the other hand faced some tough pitching and they get Cole who isn't an easy out either..His stuff early in the season hasn't been Garrett Cole like, so perhaps we get some value here with the price if he is off also...Cubs on the RL make the most sense..Hendricks is strong and he can silence the Pirates bats early today...Perhaps a 6-2 kinda game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bruce Marshall

Arizona +1.5 +104

We know Clayton Kershaw is on the mound for the Dodgers. Though he has yet to flash his overpowering stuff in two starts and was even touched for pair of homers in the same inning (for the first time in his career) in his most-recent start at Colorado. Plus the Dodgers are not scoring runs these days. Add it up and we can make a case on the Run Line, this time plus the extra run, with improved Arizona and Kershaw's old teammate Zack Greinke.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rob Vinciletti

Angels vs. Royals
Play: Royals -144

KC has Duffy going and and he has won both starts at home over the LA Angels. KC fits a solid league wide system that plays on home teams off a home favored win that vs an opponent like the Angels that are off a home dog loss by 5 or more runs and had 3 or more errors in the loss. Home teams in this role win over 85% of the time. The Angels are 1-5 as a road dog here vs the Royals.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TJ MASTERLINE

Rangers vs. Canadiens
Play: Under 5

We love the under in Montreal tonight. The guys in the pipes step up to a higher level when it becomes playoff time. Experience will dominate in this one, likely a 2-1 type game. Here are some stats that back up our selection: Under is 14-5-6 in the last 25 meetings. Under is 10-4-2 in the last 16 meetings in Montreal. Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 overall. Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 10-2-1 in Rangers last 13 vs. Atlantic. Under is 3-1-1 in Rangers last 5 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 6-2-1 in Rangers last 9 road games. Under is 3-1-1 in Rangers last 5 games following a win. Under is 8-3 in Rangers last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 8-1-3 in Canadiens last 12 vs. Metropolitan. Under is 6-1 in Canadiens last 7 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Canadiens last 6 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 9-2-4 in Canadiens last 15 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 4-1-1 in Canadiens last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games. Under is 17-5-5 in Canadiens last 27 vs. Eastern Conference. Under is 13-4-4 in Canadiens last 21 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 16-5-5 in Canadiens last 26 overall. Under is 3-1-1 in Canadiens last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 16-6-5 in Canadiens last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Under is 8-3-2 in Canadiens last 13 home games. Under is 5-2-1 in Canadiens last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Power Sports

New York at Miami
Play: Miami

I recommend taking a shot and firing on the dog here. It was certainly a disappointing loss for the Marlins yday as they fell to the Mets, 9-8, in 16 innings. But, despite having to face Noah Syndergaard on Friday, they certainly can bounce back. Remember that the Fish were favored in Thursday's series opener. Therefore, the oddsmakers are certainly attaching a lot of weight to the starting pitching matchup tonight. I would say too much. This is a really good price on the home side.

Despite being only 4-5, Miami has outscored its opponents by nine runs so far. They took two of three from the Mets, in Queens, earlier in the year and have now scored at least seven runs three times off Mets' pitching. The one exception was when they faced Syndergaard on 4.9 and he held them to only one run (on five hits) over 7 IP. Syndergaard comes in w/ a 0.69 ERA and 0.769 WHIP through two starts, but it hasn't been all good as opposing hitters are batting .357 against his fastball. Syndergaard can't be lights out every time out and tonight's a night where I feel he may struggle.

The Mets have won five straight overall and are 4-0 on the road this season. The road record clearly won't stay perfect for long. Miami counters w/ Edinson Volquez, who faced Syndergaard last week. He didn't pitch well (five runs allowed) that night, but certainly did in his 1st outing where he held Washington w/o a run over 5 IP. Considering the fact that Marcell Ozuna hit a grand slam in the 1st inning yday, it was a game Miami probably should have won. But the offense couldn't do much after that and the pitching staff let them down. While on paper a matchup vs. Syndergaard doesn't sound too promising, the price is simply too good to pass up.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Will Rogers

Rangers vs, Canadiens
Pick: Rangers

The set-up: The NHL's postseason opened on Wednesday, with four of five visiting teams walking away with a victory. It's true that the Canadiens had won all three regular-season meetings with the Rangers but it was also true that the Rangers led the NHL in regular-season road wins (27). Therefore, it can't be too much of a shock that New York was one of those four winning road teams, winning 2-0 at Bell Centre. Henrik Lundqvist registered 31 saves for his 10th shutout in the postseason, which are the most among active netminders. Some are already labeling Friday's game a must-win for the Canadiens but Montreal goaltender Carey Price was not ready to sound the alarm. “It’s just one game,” Price said. “It’s a seven-game series and we weren’t going to win 16 straight games. We would have liked to. You know, we got what we got and we’re going to move forward."

NY Rangers: Lundqvist's regular-season mark at Bell Centre is 4-9-2 with a 3.97 goals-against average but Wednesday's 2-0 win makes him 3-0-0 with a 2.01 goals-against average in his last four playoff appearances at Bell Centre. In a series between two teams known for their speed, a surprise came out of the opening game as the two combined for 98 hits through 60 minutes (45 for New York, 53 for Montreal). Forty of those were delivered in the first period alone.

Montreal: The Canadiens had their chances in Game 1, taking shots that produced rebounds but players were not in position for a quick strike of the loose puck. The Canadiens attempted 68 shots overall, 31 of which reached Lundqvist. However, the team's inability to dent Lundqvist revived memories of Montreal's six-game loss to Tampa Bay in the conference semifinals two years ago, when the Canadiens scored five goals in their four losses. Coach Claude Julien said there would be no lineup changes following Wednesday's practice, which focused on players setting up screens and working on deflections and rebounds. "There were a couple of chances where we got pucks to the net and rebounds were sitting there," captain Max Pacioretty said. "We've got to dig a little bit deeper to come up with those type of chances."

The pick: At this point, Montreal's three wins in three tries over the Rangers during the regular season hardly means much. Rather, one may be wondering if the Rangers have the Canadiens' number? After all, Wednesday's win extended New York's string of postseason success in Montreal to six wins in its last seven games at Bell Centre. Take the Rangers again in Game 2.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog

San Jose @ Edmonton
Pick: Edmonton -135

Young Edmonton learned a valuable lesson in Game 1: don't sit on a lead. The Oilers jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first period only to get outshot 34-9 the rest of the way in a 3-2 home loss. San Jose outshot Edmonton 28-7 through the final 40 minutes and finished with a 44-19 edge. San Jose is still on a 5-9 run and plays its second straight road game. The Sharks played without star center Joe Thornton, who is day-to-day with a left knee injury. Edmonton plays its third straight home contest and is strong all around at eighth in goals scored and allowed, plus fifth in the NHL on the power play. The Oilers are on a 12-3 run, including 9-1 at home. They are also 19-7 when playing on one day of rest, so back the home team in bounce-back mode.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Indian Cowboy

St. Louis (+130) over New York Yankees

We are going to be a little gutsy and take the Cardinals on the road against the Yankees behind last year's disappointment in Michael Wacha. But, Wacha has come back with a vengeance. In his first outing since giving up 17 runs in 12 innings of work in September, Wacha pitched strong against the Reds in giving up 1 run on 3 hits en route to a 10-4 win for the Cardinals. Wacha took a lot of heat for his poor performance in September of 2016, and we like him to keep that fire and motivation as he pitches against the Yankees. The Yankees have talent but are very, very young. And, as they face a pitcher who is motivated and who they have very little experience against, don't be surprised to see Wacha very strong in this outing of interleague play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jason Sharpe

Cleveland (-160) over Detroit

The two best teams in the American League Central go head to head here in this one. The Cleveland Indians won the AL Central division last year as they owned the Tigers, beating them 14 of the 18 times that these two teams faced off. Detroit goes with left-hander Daniel Norris in this game. Norris is a solid up-and-coming southpaw, but he has not looked sharp early on this year as he posted an ERA above 6.00 in the spring and was shaky in his regular-season debut also. The soon to be 24-year-old has been a slow starter in the past with an ERA of 4.22 in the first half of the baseball season compared to a solid 3.43 ERA after the All-Star break. It's been the opposite for Cleveland's Trevor Bauer as he's been a quick starter the past years as he's posted his lowest monthly ERA in the month of April throughout his career. The Indians were tough at home last year as they ended up tied for the most home wins in the American League in 2016. Added all up and they look the much better side here in this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Allen *******

Washington (-1.5) over Philadelphia

For this Bonus Play I see a blowout. This one should be Aaron Nola and Stephen Strasburg. The Nationals are going to want revenge against Nola. The last time they faced him was just last week in a 17-3 win by the Phillies. Nola won't be so fortunate here. The last time he started in Washington was last June. He allowed four runs in just three innings. Some of Nola's worst starts in his young career have come against the Nationals, and he had a 5.13 ERA against them last year. The Phillies are now just 2-5 in his seven starts against Washington. Strasburg beat Philadelphia last week, and his stuff has been really good to start the season. Washington should dominate this division this season, and I think that they will win the opener in this series.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Brayman

Lost my Bonus Play last night on the Cincinnati Reds. Oh well, it's a comp play. The important thing is I hit my 50 Dimer on the Red Sox over Pittsburgh. Tonight, for my freebie, let's play the Washington Nationals on the Run Line, over the Philadelphia Phillies.

Though pitchers are automatically listed when making Run Line wagers, I am insisting you DO NOT worry about who the scheduled starters are. In the event of a scratch, you MUST re-wager the game with the new pitcher(s) who are scheduled. This play will stand no matter who pitches for either team.

The Phillies arrive in the nation's capital riding a three-game skid, and that won't bode well in trying to keep pace with Washington's power-packed lineup.

I would have to say that other than Anthony Rendon, the Nationals - as a team - are hitting incredible right now. They lead the league with a .300 batting average, and top the bigs with a slugging percentage of .497.

At home, Washington is hitting .317 in six games, while it has a .524 slugging percentage at Nationals Park.

And while I know I said I wasn't worried about the pitchers, it is important to note that Stephen Strasburg is 8-2 with a 2.86 ERA in 18 starts against the Phillies. Plus, the current Philadelphia hitters have an average of .210 against him. So since he is automatically listed on this run line play, I figured I'd give you that nugget.

Your free winner is the Nationals on the Run Line.

3* NATIONALS -1.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Gary Bart

Orioles at Blue Jays
Play: Orioles +138

This is an important series for Toronto. They are off to a slow start and lost two straight in Baltimore in last week. The Orioles are coming off a win in the opener last night. Toronto has just one win this season. Aaron Sanchez makes his second start of the year for Toronto.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Rangers +134 over MONTREAL

OT included. The Rangers defense is what concerned us the most going into the playoffs but we saw a lot of positives in Game 1. We saw Mark Staal and Joe Girardi really bring some solid heady play. We saw Brendan Smith make an impact by battling in the dirty areas all night long. The acquisition of Smith from Detroit at the deadline may indeed turn out to be one of the better moves. When you have secondary scoring, something the Rags have in spades, it makes you difficult to play against. The Rangers come into Game 2 in a better frame of mind too.

It’s not that we believe that the Rangers are the superior team here, although they might be. This is more a fade on the Canadiens than it is on the Rags because in the playoffs teams’ need an identity and the Canadiens do not have one. They didn’t have one when they fired Michel Therrien and never really established one under Claude Julien either. Montreal played well under Julien’s defensive system for a while but we’re not interested in getting behind a team that is looking to win a bunch of 2-1 games ala the New Jersey Devils in its heyday. The Canadiens are not creating enough chances and when they do, they’re not burying them. Montreal came out in Game 1 banging bodies (?). That’s not Montreal Canadiens hockey. That’s Boston Bruins hockey but that’s what you get when you hire a coach that lives and dies by that style. Instead of coaching to his players’ strengths, that being speed, skill and creativeness, Julien has the Canadiens banging bodies while trying to grind out victories. The Montreal Canadiens have never played that style and management doesn’t draft those types of players. Claude Julien is trying to make the Canadiens into something they are not and we highly doubt that is going to change for Game 2. A price tag on what might be the best team in this series that has momentum is too appealing to pass up on.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

Baltimore/TORONTO Over 8

Buy low, sell-high is our mantra and right now the Blue Jays stock (offense) has hit rock bottom so we’re buyers because but if these two starters went up against one another seven days ago or so, the total here would have been 9½ and not 8. The market’s overreaction to Toronto’s nightmare start provides us with a bargain basement total on two laboring pitchers in a massive hitter’s park.

Toronto wasn’t able to slow down Aaron Sanchez’s workload last year as much as they hoped, so let's assume some of his 2nd half skill decline was fatigue. Still, his base skills weren't commensurate with promising results earlier in the year and he didn't miss bats at a high clip (9% swing and miss rate) nor get strike one at a very good rate (61%). With an ugly 32% groundball rate and a big ERA/xERA gap, there are lots of reasons for caution. Sanchez was average in his first start this year with three walks and six K’s in seven innings at The Trop but this park is a lot less forgiving. He's likely to take a step back in 2017.

Then there’s Wade Miley, who may give up eight on his own. Miley’s 2nd half command last year was fueled by a decent strikeout rate spike over final nine weeks but the slight swing and miss uptick suggests it was not real. Except for July, Miley’s bottom line was awful. Right-handed bats owned him. A career-worst 1.4 hr/9 and another shaky hit%/strand% combo didn’t help. Miley’s historical dominant start/disaster start split points to a very low ceiling. In his first start this year, Miley struck out five batters in five innings and didn’t allow a run but he walked seven Yankees in those five innings with a 30%/40%/30% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split. Almost every better that Miley faced hit the ball on the barrel of the bat or walked. This is a horrible pitcher that is exactly what the doctor ordered for Toronto’s bats to wake up.

L.A. Angels @ KANSAS CITY
L.A. Angels +118 over KANSAS CITY

In nine games, the Royals have scored 27 runs and have a 3-6 record to show for it while the Angels have scored 47 runs in 10 games and have a 6-4 record. However, K.C’s Danny Duffy has put up some pretty sweet surface numbers after two starts while the Angels will send little known J.C. Ramirez to the hill, which sets up this overlay.

The market will see Danny Duffy’s 1-0 record and 2.08 ERA after 13 innings and think he’s off to a great start. We see Danny Duffy’s 4.16 xERA and five walks and know that regression is likely. Duffy is a lefty that struck out fewer batters in the second half of last year when his velocity dropped from 95.6 mph in the first half to 94.1 mph in the second half. Lowering his fly-ball rate (41%) led to a 3.96 xERA after the break but he’s down to 93.1 mph this year and only whiffed three batters in seven frames in his last start. Duffy has benefitted from pitching to cold batters in cold weather but that same luxury does not await him here, as it’ll a comfortable 73° (23C) at game time. Duffy is decent but he’s overpriced and that’s all we care about.

J.C. Ramirez was signed out of Nicaragua by the Mariners in 2005 and pitched in that organization before being shipped to Philadelphia prior to the 2010 campaign. He spent four years with the Phillies—including 24 innings in the majors in 2013—and then signed with the Indians for 2014. He showed promise as a starter early in his career, but command problems eventually moved him to the bullpen full-time in 2012. If you look at his natural stuff, it isn’t bad. The problem has been his walk rate and surprisingly low strikeout rate. Ramirez works off of his above-average, 91-95 mph sinker, but the inconsistency in his secondary offerings has limited his effectiveness. He has the frame and quick arm action of a power pitcher, but can’t get hitters to chase his short slider or change-up. Ramirez also keeps the ball on the ground to the tune of a 53% groundball rate over 131 career MLB innings. Ramirez has worked extensively out of the pen. In fact, he’ll make his first career start here after 111 relief innings since 2013. He worked four innings in his last appearance and didn’t walk a batter, which is a pretty good sign moving forward. The old adage about making a silk purse from a sow's ear comes to mind here. Ramirez actually proved hard to hit in the 2nd half for the Angels last year, which was his fourth team in two years. His high-octane fastball hasn't translated into strikeouts and his control is spotty, but he's of the "live arm" variety who will pique interest wherever he's allowed to air it out. Voila! Silk purse. We’ll take out chances with this 28-year-old live arm.

Arizona +220 over LOS ANGELES

Clayton Kershaw’s first half pace last year was nothing short of stunning, as 2015's otherworldly numbers only got BETTER. But then back woes hit and sidelined him for 2+ months and cost him some swing-and-miss upon his return. Kershaw’s age and track record are impeccable, though his health grade can't be ignored. Kershaw’s back issues (herniated disc) are the same that sidelined golfers Nick Watley for 18 months, Patrick Cantley for almost three years and Tiger Woods for an undetermined amount of time. Some cases require surgery and some do not and for now, Kershaw does not but it’s hard to ignore the swing and miss decline upon his return last year that has carried over to this year. In 13 innings covering two starts, Kershaw has 14 K’s but his swing and miss rate was just 9%. We’re not suggesting for a minute that Kershaw has lost it but his over/under win total this year was only 16 and that’s a little curious for a great pitcher on a great team that is expected to make between 33 and 37 starts. Kershaw is atop 2017's high risk/low reward chart because when you back him, you will be paying a huge price to do so. If he dominates and the Dodgers win easy, we can live with that.

This wager is not a fade against Clayton Kershaw. It’s backing Zack Greinke at the lunacy price being offered here. Here’s a starting pitcher that has lost a mere 33 games in 180 starts since the start of the 2011 season. He hasn’t lost in two starts this year and comes in with a 2.31 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Zack Greinke, who figures to be extra motivated to begin with, is too good to be priced in this range. Greinke can dominate a lineup and can go a full game at any time without giving up a run. Based on that alone, he’s worth a bet. Greinke also knows every weakness of most of the Dodgers batters and now he’s taking back better than 2-1 with that edge working for him? This line is nuts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bruce Marshall

Atlanta -1.5 +149

We don't often use the Braves on the Run Line. We make an exception tonight, however, on a special evening in Atlanta when the Braves' new SunTrust Park opens on the I-285 perimeter north of downtown. Moreover, luck has to change one of these nights for Atlanta starter Julio Teheran, who hasn't allowed a run in his first two starts and has nothing to show for it, mostly due to bullpen flaws. But Teheran rates a clear edge on Padre journeyman Jhoulys Chacin tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Larry Ness

Cardinals at Yankees
Pick: Yankees

The New York Yankees open a three-game home series with the St Louis Cardinals on Friday night. The Yanks are coming off a three-game home sweep of the Rays and will take 5-4 record into the series. The Cards have been the NL Central's 'top dog' for much of the recent past but the 2017 Cardinals are currently 3-6 (tied with the Pirates for the division's worst record), despite playing six of their first nine games at home. St Louis is already looking up at the 7-3 Reds, as well as the World Champion Cubs, who have started 6-3.

Michael Wacha (1-0, 1.50 ERA) will take the mound for the Cards up against Yankee ace, Masahiro Tanaka (0-1, 11.74 ERA). Wacha is coming off a poor 2016 campaign (7-7 with a 5.09 ERA) but was sharp in his 2017 debut last Saturday against the Reds. He held Cincy to one run on three hits in six innings. He has now won six straight decisions dating to last season and Saturday's victory upped his record to 9-3 with a 2.58 ERA in 16 career April starts. Wacha allowed three runs in seven innings in his only previous start against the Yankees.

Tanaka was pounded at Tampa Bay in his season debut (allowed 7 ERs on 8 hits in just 2.2 innings) and then gave up three runs on six hits and four walks in five rocky innings at Baltimore on Saturday. Tanaka has surrendered 10 runs on 14 hits and six walks in just 7.2 innings of work so far while giving up two homers and hitting two batters (opponents are batting .400 against him and he owns a 2.61 WHIP!). He has never faced the Cards.

For all of Tanaka's early woes, note that both outings have come on the road. Tanaka won his last six decisions at Yankee Stadium in 2016 and New York was victorious in each of Tanaka's final eight outings at home last year. He's 20-7 with a 3.31 ERA in his career at Yankee Stadium, where his team just finished off a three-game sweep of Tampa Bay on Thursday. He owns an excellent 2.49 ERA in 10 interleague starts and the Cards' Wacha will be making his Yankee Stadium debut. Take the home team.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The Last Call

Friday's Bonus Play: Chicago White Sox + 150