NBA Friday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
Celtics at Cavaliers – 7:35 PM EST
Cleveland has wrapped up the second seed in the Eastern Conference and the Central Division title, as the Cavs are playing out the string the final four games of the regular season. LeBron James will likely sit out in the first of a home-and-home set with the Celtics, while his status for Saturday’s matchup at Boston is also up in the air. The Cavs held off the Bucks on Wednesday to capture their first division championship since 2010 in a 104-99 victory, but failed to cash as 6 ½-point road favorites. David Blatt’s club owns a 1-4 ATS record the past five games, while James is sitting his first home game since a January 28 victory over Portland when Kyrie Irving torched the Blazers for a career-best 55 points.
The Celtics are riding a five-game road winning streak after Wednesday’s 113-103 victory at Detroit as two-point favorites. Isaiah Thomas came off the bench to pump in 34 points for Boston, who is tied with Brooklyn for the seventh spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs with four games remaining. Since the All-Star break, the C’s have covered 10 of 14 times in the underdog role, but one of those losses came in blowout fashion at Cleveland in early March, 110-79 as 11-point ‘dogs.
Wizards at Nets – 7:35 PM EST
Washington took care of business without John Wall in Wednesday’s 119-90 rout of Philadelphia to pick up its fourth straight win. The Wizards easily covered as 4 ½-point favorites, as Randy Wittman’s club has an outside shot at grabbing the third seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs, but lose the tiebreaker with the Raptors. Washington is on track to finish fifth, where it would likely face Chicago for the second straight postseason after knocking the Bulls out of the first round in 2014.
The Nets suffered a tough defeat to the Hawks on Wednesday night, 114-111 as 4 ½-point favorites, but Brooklyn is still holding onto the eighth spot in the East. In spite of that setback, Brooklyn owns a solid 9-3 SU and 6-4-2 ATS record the past 12 games, which includes a 6-1 run to the ‘over’ the last seven contests. The Nets have lost two of three matchups with the Wizards this season, including a 99-90 defeat at Barclays Center in mid-January as 5 ½-point underdogs.
Suns at Pelicans – 8:05 PM EST
Phoenix’s slim playoff hopes evaporated in Wednesday’s 107-104 loss at Dallas as the Suns won’t be heading to the postseason for the fifth straight season. Jeff Hornacek’s squad covered as 8 ½-point underdogs, but the Suns have lost seven of their last eight games, including four straight on the highway. Even though Phoenix’s roster has seen plenty of turnover the past few seasons, the Suns have taken six of the last seven matchups with New Orleans, while the home team has split a pair of meetings this season.
The Pelicans rallied past the Warriors on Tuesday as a home underdog in a 103-100 triumph, but were humbled the next night in a 110-74 rout at the hands of the Grizzlies. New Orleans has won nine of its previous 12 games at Smoothie King Center since the All-Star break, but own a 3-5 ATS record as a home favorite in this stretch. The Pelicans begin Friday’s action tied with the Thunder for the eighth playoff spot in the West, as New Orleans owns the tiebreaker, beating Oklahoma City in three of four tries.
Spurs at Rockets – 8:05 PM EST
Don’t ever count out San Antonio, even if they are heading to the playoffs. The Spurs seemed to be locked into the sixth seed in the West, but the defending champions have run off nine consecutive wins to pull within one-half game of both Memphis and Houston for the top spot in the Southwest Division. The latest victory came at home on Wednesday over the Rockets, 110-98, as the Spurs easily covered as 6 ½-point favorites. San Antonio erased an early nine-point deficit thanks to Tony Parker’s 27 points on 13-of-18 shooting from the floor, as the Spurs shot 50% from the field.
The Rockets had four players score in double-figures at San Antonio, led by James Harden’s 22 points. However, Houston put up a combined 38 points in the second and third quarters as Kevin McHale’s squad saw its three-game winning streak snapped. The Rockets couldn’t quite pull off the three-game sweep on their road trip, coming off impressive victories at Dallas and Oklahoma City. Houston has played well at home of late, winning five of the past six at the Toyota Center, but all five of those victories came against teams that will not be headed to the playoffs (Sacramento, Minnesota, Denver, Orlando, and Detroit).
Houston has claimed each of the past four matchups at home against San Antonio, including a 98-81 triumph in early November as 6 ½-point favorites. The Spurs haven’t busted the 98-point mark in their previous four visits to the Toyota Center, as San Antonio’s last win in Houston came in overtime back in December 2012 in a 134-126 victory.
Total Notes
Chris David of VegasInsider.com provides us with his quick handicap on Friday’s totals.
Since we only have seven days left in the regular season, I would strong advise you to tread lightly since a lot of these games are next to impossible to handicap.
With that being said, I jotted down quick total notes on seven of the 12 matchups.
Boston and Cleveland have played to a pair of shootouts this season but I’d be surprised to see another one on Friday, especially with LeBron James expected to sit out. He’s sat out 11 games for the Cavaliers this season and the team has averaged 91.3 PPG. No overnight line posted but I would go ‘under’ on anything at 194 or lower.
Charlotte and Atlanta have met twice this season and both games easily went ‘over’ with a combined 241 and 215 points scored. These outcomes weren’t a coincidence either. Including these results, the ‘over’ is 12-2 in the last 14 matchups between the pair. The game opened 193 ½ and quickly got pushed up to 196. Al Jefferson still ‘doubtful’ for Charlotte and that should open up the paint and keep the pace moving.
The Nets and Wizards have seen the ‘under’ go 7-2 in their last nine meetings, which includes two winning ‘under’ tickets this season. Those results were blowouts, which helped the cause. John Wall missed the last game for Washington and could sit again on Friday.
The Kings and Thunder have seen the ‘under’ cash in their last six meetings and neither team is at full strength for this matchup. Sacramento has gone up-tempo since the All-Star break when George Karl took over the coaching duties, which has translated into a 16-8 ‘over’ record. This is the highest total for Friday and if the shots fall, it’s doable.
I thought the Spurs and Rockets would tighten up their defense on Wednesday when they met at AT&T Center but that wasn’t the case. San Antonio earned a 110-98 win, its second time beating Houston this season and also the second time they scored 110. This game is very important for playoff seeding with the winner improving their chances to claim the No. 2 seed. With that being said, I would expect a tighter contest but it’s hard to bet the ‘under’ in Houston matchups just based on their 3-point philosophy. The Rockets lead the league with 33 attempts per game and they’re connecting at a respectable 34.8 percent. The total opened 205 and has dropped a tad (204) which tells me the early money agrees with my thoughts.
It’s rare to see a NBA total listed in the seventies but that’s the case with the Grizzlies-Jazz on Friday and this number is actually justified. The opener was 178 ½ and it’s been bet up to 180. Memphis enters this game on a 5-0-1 run to the ‘under’ in its last six games and the defense has really clamped down the last four games (85.2 PPG). Utah has scored 100-plus in its last two games albeit against Sacramento. Playing the Grizzlies is a big step-up in class defensively and I’d be surprised if the Jazz get over 90 in this game. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in the three encounters between the pair this season.
If you’re looking for the “Roll the Ball Out” game on Friday, then check out the Wolves-Lakers game. The total opened 204 ½ and is already up to 206 ½. My feel is that this is a game that could see 180 points or 240. It’s just a matter of making shots, which will be open, because neither team plays defense. The Timberwolves (106.2 PPG) are ranked last in scoring defense and the Lakers are ranked 29th (105 PPG). If you like the ‘over’ like I do, play it now, because once again the Lakers are on national television (NBATV) and these games usually get juiced up.