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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds and Predictions: Friday, March 13 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

Well, here I was prepared to lead this story with how I expected the Charlotte Hornets to claim either the No. 7 or No. 8 spot in the Eastern Conference playoff chase. I felt that way because the team was playing pretty well and welcomed back arguably its best player, point guard Kemba Walker, from a long injury absence on Wednesday. Then the Hornets went out and lost at home to Sacramento and may have lost their other top player, center Al Jefferson. So now I have no idea. Here’s a look at Friday’s schedule.

Bulls at Hornets (TBA)

No surprise a TBA here because there are a few questions. The Bulls ended a three-game losing streak with Wednesday’s 104-95 OT win in Philly. They were again without Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson, and they aren’t playing here. The surprise was that Joakim Noah was a late scratch with knee soreness. Now, that could be something or it could be the Bulls simply thought they could beat the Sixers without him. Charlotte lost a second straight Wednesday, 113-106 to the Kings. Walker had six points in 16 minutes off the bench after missing 18 games (with the same type of surgery Rose recently had). Jefferson strained his calf in the third quarter, which doesn’t seem too bad. However, Coach Steve Clifford said afterward that Jefferson heard something “pop.” That doesn’t sound promising, although an MRI reportedly revealed nothing serious. Fellow big man Cody Zeller missed the game with a shoulder injury and probably won’t play here. Charlotte lost by seven at home to Chicago on Dec. 3 but won the most recent matchup, 98-86 in Chicago on Feb. 25. That latter result was one of the least surprising of the season as it was the Bulls’ first game after learning that Rose needed another knee surgery. They were completely deflated.

Key trends: The Bulls are 3-12 against the spread in their past 15 following an ATS win. Charlotte is 1-5 ATS in its past six at home. Chicago has covered six of its past seven in Charlotte. The “over/under” has gone under in nine of the past 12 meetings.

Early lean: I think if Noah plays the Bulls win assuming Jefferson doesn’t. If both sit or both play, I like Charlotte.



Kings at 76ers (+4, 205)

Sacramento ended its four-game losing streak with Wednesday’s seven-point win in Charlotte. DeMarcus Cousins had 20 points and 14 rebounds, while Ben McLemore had 27 points and Rudy Gay 26. Cousins has scored in double digits in all 49 games he’s played this season. Philly lost in OT at home to Chicago on Wednesday. Ish Smith(!?) led the Sixers with a career-high 23 points. Isaiah Canaan was a game-time call but played and had 20. The 76ers tied a franchise-high with 41 3-point attempts, making 11. This is the first meeting of the season between the teams. Last year they split, each winning on the road. Philly’s loss was No. 18 of 2013-14’s record-tying 26-game skid.

Key trends: The Kings are 0-5 ATS in their past five after a win. The Sixers are 5-0 ATS in their past five vs. the West. The over is 7-0 in Sacramento’s past seven vs. the East.

Early lean: Kings and under.



Magic at Celtics (-5, 198.5)

Orlando lost a second straight Wednesday, 97-91 in Milwaukee, the Magic’s ninth straight road defeat. Boston won a second straight Wednesday, upsetting visiting Memphis 95-92. I didn’t see that coming, especially with Celtics guard Isaiah Thomas missing it with a back injury. You won’t see him here, either. This is the last meeting, with Boston winning the first at home and then the Magic the next two at home. They played last Sunday, a 103-98 Orlando win in which the Magic trailed by 20 at one point.

Key trends: Orlando is 5-2 ATS in its past seven on the road. Boston has covered eight straight at home. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings.

Early lean: Celtics and over.



Heat at Raptors (-6, 202.5)

Miami beat visiting Brooklyn 104-98 on Wednesday to complete the season sweep. Dwyane Wade was a game-time call but played and had 28 points and nine assists. Goran Dragic also was questionable but played and had 17 points. The Heat played without center Hassan Whiteside due to suspension, but he’ll be back for this. Toronto lost a fourth straight Tuesday in San Antonio despite 32 points from Kyle Lowry. These teams haven’t played since very early in the season, a 107-102 Heat home win.

Key trends: Toronto is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 overall. The over is 4-1 in Miami’s past five on the road. The Heat have covered six straight in Toronto (thanks to LeBron).

Early lean: Raptors and over.



Timberwolves at Thunder (TBA)

OKC lost 120-108 at home against the Clippers on Wednesday as Russell Westbrook was outplayed by Chris Paul. Sure, Westbrook had 24 points, nine rebounds and seven assists, but he also turned it over a career-high 10 times. Minnesota lost its second straight Wednesday, 106-97 in Phoenix. It appears the Wolves have lost center Nikola Pekovic to injury again. He left after just eight minutes (thus TBA). Oklahoma City has had little trouble in winning the first two matchups with Minnesota. I hope Andrew Wiggins gets plenty of time guarding Westbrook in this one. That’s worth watching. Wiggins will be an All-Defensive Team member soon in his career.

Key trends: The Wolves are 0-4 ATS in their past four road games. OKC is 5-1 ATS in its past six vs. teams with a losing record. The over is 7-2 in the past nine meetings in OKC.

Early lean: No doubt Thunder win, but I wouldn’t give more than seven.



Clippers at Mavericks (-2.5, 202.5)

L.A. won its second straight by double digits Wednesday, beating the Thunder in OKC by 12. I mentioned Chris Paul might sit in that preview, but he clearly was fired up by going against Russell Westbrook and had 33 points and nine assists. DeAndre Jordan had 18 points and 17 rebounds. Blake Griffin sat again, but there’s an outside chance he returns here. I’m very curious to see how Dallas responds to a 127-94 home blowout loss to Cleveland on Tuesday, which led Amare Stouedmire to rip the team. Los Angeles has beaten Dallas by 20 and 17 points thus far. In the most recent matchup, Jordan went nuts with 22 points and 27 rebounds. They were the most rebounds against Dallas since Dennis Rodman had that many for Chicago on Dec. 29, 1997. Dallas has lost three straight at home in this series and eight of the past 10 overall.

Key trends: The over is 7-0 in the past seven meetings. L.A. has covered four of its past five in Dallas.

Early lean: Barring Griffin returning and providing a huge spark, I think Mavs do respond and cover.



Warriors at Nuggets (+9, 215.5)

Golden State won its fifth straight Wednesday, 105-98 against visiting Detroit. Klay Thompson had 27 points as the Warriors matched their win total from last season. I’m just warning you that Coach Steve Kerr might rest a guy or two here because he has talked about doing so and the Warriors are back home Saturday. Denver upset the Hawks 115-102 in the Mile High City on Wednesday. It wasn’t even that close. The Nuggets have scored 100 or more points in all six games under interim coach Melvin Hunt. Just one meeting thus far between these teams, and it was ugly for Denver: a 122-79 shellacking in Oakland on Jan. 19. It was the Warriors’ largest margin of victory this season.

Key trends: The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their past five in Denver. The under is 5-2 in the past seven meetings.

Early lean: Nuggets and over.



Hawks at Suns (+5.5, 206)

I expect a much better effort here from Atlanta as it trailed by as much as 32 in Wednesday’s loss in Denver. It was the Hawks’ second straight road defeat to a bad team. About the only bright spot from that game was backup center Pero Antic returned from injury and had six points under 20 minutes. Without Brandon Knight, Phoenix beat Minnesota 106-97 on Wednesday. Knight might be back here, but I wouldn’t count on it. First meeting of the season — the only team Phoenix has yet to play. Phoenix swept last year and has won 10 of the past 13 meetings. The Hawks have not won a season series against the Suns since the lockout-shortened 1999 campaign.

Key trends: Atlanta is 8-1 ATS in its past nine after a loss. The Suns are 2-6 ATS in their past eight at home vs. teams with a winning road record. The under is 4-0 in Phoenix’s past four.

Early lean: Hawks and over.



Pistons at Trail Blazers (-10, 197)

Detroit’s free-fall continued with a 105-98 loss at Golden State on Wednesday, the Pistons’ eighth straight defeat. At least Andre Drummond showed up as he had 22 points and a career-high 27 rebounds. Detroit dropped to 8-19 against the Western Conference. Portland beat Houston 105-100 on Wednesday. LaMarcus Aldridge led the way with 26 points and 14 rebounds. Damian Lillard became the only NBA player to make 150 or more 3-pointers in each of his first three seasons. Detroit lost at home to Portland 98-86 on Dec. 9 back when the Pistons were a mess with Josh Smith — that dropped Detroit to 3-19 and was its 13th straight loss. Portland has won four straight in the series.

Key trends: The Pistons are 11-5 ATS in their past 16 following a loss. Portland is 5-2 ATS in its past seven at home. The over is 6-1 in the past seven meetings.

Early lean: Blazers and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

POINTWISE

NBA BASKETBALL

FRIDAY, MARCH 13 SCORE

(7:05) CHARLOTTE HORNETS 98 – Chicago Bulls 94 _____ _____

(7:05) Sacramento Kings 112 – PHILADELPHIA 98 _____ _____

(7:35) BOSTON CELTICS 102 – Orlando Magic 97 _____ _____

(7:35) TORONTO RAPTORS 111 – Miami Heat 105 _____ _____

(8:05) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER 114 – Minnesota 94 _____ _____

(8:35) LA Clippers 103 – DALLAS MAVERICKS 98 (NBA) _____ _____

(9:05) Golden State Warriors 108 – DENVER 100 _____ _____

(10:05) Atlanta Hawks 107 – PHOENIX SUNS 95 _____ _____

(10:05) PORTLAND BLAZERS 113 – Detroit Pistons 95 _____ _____

BEST BETS: SACRAMENTO, OKLAHOMA CITY (4), PORTLAND (3)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Championship Week – not the NCAA tournament – is the real March Madness
By Jason Logan

The NCAA tournament is for tourists.

You want the real March Madness? Try cramming every major-conference program as well as a truck full of mid-major teams into a week of basketball, with most of that condensed in a Thursday-to-Sunday window.

Then, try setting odds for every single one of those games, with a wave of new matchups the second those contests are through. And if that’s not enough, sick the sharpest sports bettors in the world on those odds and try to keep the book balanced.

“It’s like a duck on a pond,” Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports for MGM in Las Vegas. “On top everything is peaceful and serene. But underneath, the duck is pedaling like crazy.”

Conference championship week doesn’t carry the pageantry of the NCAA tournament, but for those in the industry there is no busier time. It also doesn’t draw the massive crowds of public bettors, but caters more to the hardcore college hoops fans and professional handicappers.

“The handle for the NCAA tournament is probably a pretty close 50/50 split between sharp and public action. Conference tournament week,” says Rood, “is closer to a 60/40 or 70/30 split in favor of action from the wiseguys.”

Oddsmakers admit that setting odds for the first two big days of the NCAA tournament – Thursday and Friday – is much easier than trying to keep pace with the conference tournaments. And throughout the tournament, books have at least a full day between each teams’ next game.

Championship week not only challenges the oddsmakers to come up with lines for the next day on short notice but doesn’t allow them to come up for air until the whole thing is done Sunday evening – just before the Selection Committee picks its field of 68 and they have to handicap the opening matchups for the national tournament.

“We’re talking about five straight days of non-stop basketball,” Peter Childs of Sportsbook. “It’s exhausting but it’s also super exciting, with wall-to-wall games going. Personally, other than college bowl week from Christmas to January 1, this is my favorite week of the year.”

Despite the fatigue and short turnaround, books can’t afford to make any mistakes during championship week. Unlike the NCAA tournament, which is huge with the casual basketball bettors, the conference tournaments are shark infested waters with wiseguys just waiting for the books to slip and dunk their toe in.

“Our lines will be geared more towards what we think the sharps will do as opposed to what the public will do this week,” says Childs. “Next week (during the NCAA tournament), it’s the complete opposite.”

What is it about the conference tournaments – more than the national tournament – that draws the wiseguys? The overall consensus among sharps is the sheer abundance of games available. The more games, the more opportunities bettors have to find the matchup they want and cash in. It’s also a game of cat and mouse when the odds are released, chasing the added line value before books adjust their numbers.

Another reason championship week is more popular with sharps than the NCAA tournament is the familiarity between the programs. This not only works for situational bettors, looking to cash in on sweeps and revenge spots, but also when crunching the numbers for those conference tournaments.

“Using conference-only stats gives a great read on the teams as they all play common opponents within the same conference,” Steve Merril. “In the NCAA tournament, you normally have teams that played zero common opponents and completely different schedule strengths, so it’s harder to set an accurate power rating.”

Mid-major conference tournaments have been rolling since last week but March Madness – the real March Madness – kicks into high gear Tuesday and Wednesday when the big boys get underway. ACC tournament opens Tuesday, with the Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and Pac-12 starting Wednesday. The AAC tournament tips off Thursday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

No. 6 Wisconsin faces Michigan Friday
By Zach Cohen

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (16-15) vs. WISCONSIN BADGERS (28-3)

United Center – Chicago, IL
Big Ten Tournament – Quarterfinals
Tip-off: Friday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Line: Wisconsin -14.0

Michigan looks to upset No. 6 Wisconsin when the teams meet in the Big Ten tournament on Friday.

Michigan faced Illinois in its opening round Big Ten tournament game and the Wolverines came away with a 73-55 win-and-cover. The team has now won both SU and ATS in its past two games. No. 6 Wisconsin, meanwhile, beat Ohio State 72-48 as a 2-point road favorite in its season finale. The Badgers have won three straight games SU since losing to Maryland on Feb. 24, covering in their past two games as well. Wisconsin won the only meeting with Michigan this season, defeating the Wolverines 69-64 in overtime as 10.5-point road favorites on Jan. 24. The Badgers have won four of the past five games in this head-to-head series SU and they’ve covered in three of those games. They are also 8-2 SU and 5-5 ATS in their past 10 meetings with Michigan overall. Michigan is 2-1 SU and 2-0-1 ATS in neutral site games this season. The team was also 10-8 ATS when facing Big Ten opponents this season, but just 8-10 SU in those contests. The Badgers, meanwhile, are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS when playing on a neutral site this season. They are also 24-3 SU and 15-12 ATS when coming off of a SU win. F Ricky Doyle (Virus) is probable for Michigan and G Derrick Walton Jr. (Ankle) is questionable for the team. The Wolverines are already without G Caris LeVert (Foot) and F D.J. Wilson (Knee) for the season. G Traevon Jackson (Foot) is unlikely to play in the Big Ten tournament, but he could return for the NCAA tournament.

Here is the betting preview for this matchup:

Michigan has really underperformed all season and they must now win the Big Ten tournament in order to make it to the NCAA tournament. G Zak Irvin (14.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.0 SPG) is going to have to play out of his mind if the Wolverines are going to beat an elite Badgers team. Irvin had 14 points, six boards and six assists in 38 minutes against Illinois. He is a good shooter (35% 3PT) and is capable of filling up the stat sheet. Irvin scored 12 points in 40 minutes of action the last time he faced Wisconsin. He’ll need to be even better this time around. G Spike Albrecht (7.4 PPG, 4.0 APG) will have to do a good job of distributing the ball in this game. He’s averaging 7.3 APG over his past three games and that type of passing will be needed against a stifling Wisconsin defense. G Aubrey Dawkins (6.6 PPG, 2.1 RPG) has been given a huge role for Michigan recently. Dawkins has needed the green light to shoot the ball all season and he finally has it, averaging 23.3 PPG over the past three contests. He is a lights-out shooter (44% 3PT) and will have to get hot in this game. F Max Bielfeldt (5.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG) has been thrown into the fire recently, averaging 12.0 PPG and 7.5 RPG in 31.0 MPG over the past two games. This Michigan team is completely depleted and Bielfeldt will need to be tough on the glass and finish at the rim on Friday. G Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (4.0 PPG) broke out of his slump on Thursday and finished with 15 points, eight rebounds and two steals in 38 minutes against Illinois. He had nine points the last time he faced Wisconsin and must contribute offensively on Friday.

Wisconsin has one of the most efficient offenses in the nation, scoring 71.7 PPG (74th in NCAA) on 48.0% shooting (22nd in NCAA). The team is also very sound defensively and the leader on both ends is C Frank Kaminsky (18.4 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.6 BPG), who is one of the best players in college basketball. Kaminsky is a lethal player in the post and he can also shoot the outside shot as well as any guard in the nation (41% 3PT). He had 22 points and nine rebounds in 43 minutes the last time he faced the Wolverines and they do not have the size to cover him one-on-one. F Sam Dekker (13.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG) is another guy who will really give the Wolverines trouble. Dekker is playing well lately, averaging 15.0 PPG and 7.0 RPG over the past two contests. He is an explosive athlete and lets the game come to him, rarely forcing anything that isn’t there. He had 15 points the last time he faced Michigan and should be able to play well on Friday. G Josh Gasser (7.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG) is one of the better role players in the nation. Gasser is a very good outside shooter (38% 3PT) and can also lock down his defender when called upon. He should have a big impact in this game. G Bronson Koenig (7.8 PPG, 2.2 APG) had a big game against Ohio State, finishing with 15 points (6-for-11 FG, 3-for-5 3PT) in 36 minutes. Koenig is a very good ball-handler and can knock down outside shots either off the dribble or in catch-and-shoot situations. He’s been very accurate shooting from behind the arc this year (40% 3PT) and will have to play well throughout this tournament for the Badgers. F Nigel Hayes (12.0 PPG, 6.4 RPG) had 10 points and five boards the last time he faced Michigan. He is a monster on the glass but must do better rebounding this time around, as Michigan is lacking players with size at this point in the year.

 

[superbeets]

French Division 1 TODAY 19:30

Monaco

v

Bastia

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BTX					More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT MONACO	RECENT FORM
HWAWAWHDALAW​ Most recent​	0 - 0 3 - 0 5 - 2 2 - 0	AD*HWAWHWALHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Bastia have lost one of their last 16 matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Monaco are on the brink of qualifying for the Champions League quarter-finals but need to put the second leg with Arsenal at the back of their minds when hosting mid-table Bastia. Some of the Monaco players are bound to be looking ahead to next week and in-form Bastia can take advantage by bagging a point.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1

German Bundesliga 1 TODAY 19:30

B Leverkusen

v

Stuttgart

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ESPN					More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT B LEVERKUSEN	RECENT FORM
HLADHWHWHD*AW​ Most recent​	2 - 1 2 - 1 2 - 2 4 - 2	ADHLALHLADHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Stuttgart have gained 14 of their 20 points on the road

EXPERT VERDICT: Bottom club Stuttgart are performing better on their travels but this is a tremendously difficult test at the BayArena. Leverkusen have really found their rhythm in recent weeks, keeping four straight clean sheets and winning each of their last three Bundesliga battles and their slick attacking play should help land a convincing win.

RECOMMENDATION: Leverkusen-Leverkusen double result
2

Scottish Premiership TODAY 19:45

Aberdeen

v

Motherwell

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT1					More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ABERDEEN	RECENT FORM
ADNLHWAWHWAL​ Most recent​	1 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 0	ALHDALHLHWHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Motherwell have managed only one clean sheet in 14 away matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Motherwell, in desperate form for most of this season, have produced decent performances in their last two games, taking four points. That’ll give them hope they can at least stay competitive at high-flying Aberdeen. The Dons haven’t failed to score at Pittodrie since the middle of August but may need to dig deep and grind it out the win.

RECOMMENDATION: Aberdeen to win 1-0
1


REFEREE: Crawford Allan STADIUM: Pittodrie Stadium

English Championship Sa 14Mar 12:15

Middlesbro

v

Ipswich

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1					More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT MIDDLESBRO	RECENT FORM
ADHLHWALHWAL​ Most recent​	2 - 0 2 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 3	AWHLHWALALHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Boro have conceded just ten goals in 18 games

EXPERT VERDICT: Middlesbrough and Ipswich missed chances to make up ground in the promotion race last time out but Boro can take this opportunity. The pace at the top looks to have taken the edge off the Tractor Boys and Middlesbrough look a cracking bet to keep themselves in the mix.

RECOMMENDATION: Middlesbrough
3


REFEREE: STADIUM: Riverside Stadium

English Premier Sa 14Mar 12:45

C Palace

v

QPR

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
BT1					More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT C PALACE	RECENT FORM
AWHDHLHLAWAL​ Most recent​	1 - 2 0 - 2 0 - 0 1 - 1	ALHLAWALHLHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: QPR have lost 12 of 13 Premier League away games this season

EXPERT VERDICT: Crystal Palace are on the up under Alan Pardew, beating Leicester and Burnley since he took over, albeit with both those wins coming on the road. Struggling QPR look there for the taking as they’ve lost seven of their last eight Premier League matches.

RECOMMENDATION: Crystal Palace
4


REFEREE: Lee Mason STADIUM:

English Premier Sa 14Mar 15:00

West Brom

v

Stoke

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
					More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT WEST BROM	RECENT FORM
HWHWADHWALAL​ Most recent​	1 - 2 0 - 1 0 - 1 0 - 3	ADHLALAWHWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Stoke have failed to score in just one of their last 14 games

EXPERT VERDICT: West Brom’s revival under Tony Pulis has been impressive up until recently, although a pair of reverses at Aston Villa last week has hurt them. Stoke should be extremely confident after winning five of their last seven games and losing just one of their last six on the road.

RECOMMENDATION: Stoke
1


REFEREE: Kevin Friend STADIUM:

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Grand Salami - March

The Grand Salami in pro hockey is decided by adding up all the goals scored in every game scheduled for that particular day. You can wager on 'over' or 'under' the Grand Salami total. The total is set by adding up all listed 'over/under' odds for each game on that particular day.

Note: The Grand Salami will have no action if any game is suspended or cancelled before the regulation time of three twenty minute periods. Also, regardless of the number of goals scored during the shoot out portion of the overtime, the final scored recorded for the game will give the winning team on more goal than its opponent based on the score at the end of regulation time.

*The majority of sportsbooks do not put out a total on the Grand Salami when there is only one game on the card. For tracking purposes, we will continue to show the 'over/under' for goals and combined goals scored on days with just one game.

NHL GRAND SALAMI

Date No. of Games Total Goals Combined Goals Scored Result
3/1 6 32 41 OVER
3/2 3 15.5 16 OVER
3/3 10 54.5 55 OVER
3/4 4 21.5 16 UNDER
3/5 8 44 46 OVER
3/6 6 31 31 PUSH
3/7 10 53 51 UNDER
3/8 6 30.5 41 OVER
3/9 5 27.5 23 UNDER
3/10 8 43.5 42 UNDER
3/11 3 16.5 20 OVER
3/12 11 - - -
3/13 5 - - -
3/14 12 - - -
3/15 7 - - -
3/16 4 - - -
3/17 9 - - -
3/18 3 - - -
3/19 10 - - -
3/20 3 - - -
3/21 13 - - -
3/22 4 - - -
3/23 7 - - -
3/24 18 - - -
3/25 3 - - -
3/26 11 - - -
3/27 3 - - -
3/28 13 - - -
3/29 8 - - -
3/30 6 - - -
3/31 7 - - -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Preview: Maple Leafs (27-35) at Flames (37-25)

Date: March 13, 2015 8:00 PM EDT

The Calgary Flames are playing with the spirit of a team determined to end a five-year playoff drought.

Seeking their first six-game point streak in three seasons, the Flames look to end their recent struggles against the visiting Toronto Maple Leafs on Friday night.

Fresh off a 4-2-1 trip against Eastern Conference teams, Calgary (37-25-5) rallied from an early 2-0 deficit with five straight goals in Wednesday's 6-3 win over Anaheim.

'We wanted to come back home and we wanted to have a good showing for the fans because they've been a huge part of our success and backing us,' said defenseman Kris Russell, who has two goals and six assists in four games.

Aiming for their first playoff berth since 2008-09, the Flames are third in the Pacific Division and have totaled 22 goals during a 4-0-1 stretch. They last earned at least a point in six straight from March 4-15, 2012.

"Everyone's stepping up here, whether it's a defenseman or a forward, first line or fourth line," rookie Johnny Gaudreau told the Flames' official website. "It's great to see that when we're coming down the playoff stretch here. It's going to help us in the long run."

With two goals Wednesday, Gaudreau has three with three assists during a five-game point streak. Second among NHL rookies with 50 points, Gaudreau is the first Flames rookie to reach that mark since Jarome Iginla in 1996-97.

"It's pretty special for me to be part of something like that," he said. "Jarome Iginla, I grew up watching him. He's been so successful. ... It's pretty exciting for me."

While this has certainly been an exciting season, Calgary likely can't afford to take a step back with a fourth consecutive defeat to lowly Toronto (27-35-6).

Though the Maple Leafs are perhaps the NHL's most dysfunctional franchise at the moment, they've earned three points in the last two games and beat Calgary 4-1 on Dec. 9. That was part of a season-high six-game winning streak Toronto has followed by going 8-26-3.

Tyler Bozak, however, tied things late in the third period with the Maple Leafs' first power-play goal in four games and added the lone shootout score in Wednesday's 4-3 home victory over Buffalo.

'Obviously it's nice, (wins are) hard to come by right now,' said Bozak, who matched a career high with his 19th goal.

Though Toronto hasn't totally given up, a disappointing season that's featured the firing of coach Randy Carlyle, a club-record 16-game road slide that ended last week and has seen players lash out at the media, took another curious turn with the current benching of fourth-leading scorer Nazem Kadri.

The talented center was scratched prior to Monday's 4-3 overtime loss to the New York Islanders for missing a team meeting, sat against the Sabres and won't dress for this contest. Team president Brendan Shanahan said it's time for Kadri to "start making better decisions."

Kadri and Dion Phaneuf each had two assists versus Calgary in December. Teammate James van Riemsdyk recorded one of his three goals in his last five games against the Flames plus an assist in that contest.

Toronto's Jonathan Bernier recorded his fourth straight win over the Flames with 32 saves to improve to 4-1-0 with a 1.60 goals-against average against them. He's stopped 69 of the 76 shots he's faced in the Maple Leafs' last two games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Flames scoring goals galore, cashing over tickets
Justin Hartling

When the Calgary Flames hit the ice the lamps have been lighting with their last four games topping the total. The Flames have outscored their opponents 19-13 during those games, with an average combined score of eight goals per contest.

The Flames will also be hosting the Toronto Maple Leafs Friday, who has gone over in four-straight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mayweather-Pacquiao Props

Odds Subject to Change - Updated 3.12.15

Welterweight Fight - MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas
Floyd Mayweather -205
Manny Pacquiao +167

Floyd Mayweather Jr vs Manny Pacquiao - Boxing Fight - Round Prop - Las Vegas NV
Over 7.5 -600
Under 7.5 +375

Floyd Mayweather Jr vs Manny Pacquiao - Boxing Fight - Round Prop - Las Vegas NV
Over 9.5 -340
Under 9.5 +230

Floyd Mayweather Jr vs Manny Pacquiao - Boxing Fight - Round Prop - Las Vegas NV
Over 11.5 -300
Under 11.5 +210

Mayweather vs Pacquiao - Score Card Handicap
(Any KO is a winner - combined scores on all 3 judges scorecards at bout completion)
Floyd Mayweather -13.5 +150
Manny Pacquiao +13.5 -200

Floyd Mayweather - Gets Knocked Down
(includes any official knock downs KO TKO or DQ)
Yes +400
No -700

Manny Pacquiao - Gets Knocked Down
(includes any official knock downs KO TKO or DQ)
Yes -110
No -130

Floyd Mayweather vs Manny Pacquiao - Final Result
Pacquiao by KO - TKO - DQ 6/1
Pacquiao by Decision 9/2
Mayweather by KO - TKO - DQ 5/1
Mayweather by Decision 2/3
Draw 18/1

Mayweather vs Pacquiao - Pick the Round
Round 1 - Mayweather Wins Fight 50/1
Round 1 - Pacquiao Wins Fight 50/1
Round 2 - Mayweather Wins Fight 40/1
Round 2 - Pacquiao Wins Fight 50/1
Round 3 - Mayweather Wins Fight 40/1
Round 3 - Pacquiao Wins Fight 50/1
Round 4 - Mayweather Wins Fight 35/1
Round 4 - Pacquiao Wins Fight 50/1
Round 5 - Mayweather Wins Fight 35/1
Round 5 - Pacquiao Wins Fight 50/1
Round 6 - Mayweather Wins Fight 35/1
Round 6 - Pacquiao Wins Fight 50/1
Round 7 - Mayweather Wins Fight 35/1
Round 7 - Pacquiao Wins Fight 45/1
Round 8 - Mayweather Wins Fight 30/1
Round 8 - Pacquiao Wins Fight 45/1
Round 9 - Mayweather Wins Fight 30/1
Round 9 - Pacquiao Wins Fight 40/1
Round 10 - Mayweather Wins Fight 30/1
Round 10 - Pacquiao Wins Fight 40/1
Round 11 - Mayweather Wins Fight 30/1
Round 11 - Pacquiao Wins Fight 40/1
Round 12 - Mayweather Wins Fight 35/1
Round 12 - Pacquiao Wins Fight 40/1

Special Props - Released 3.11.15

Higher Power Punches Landed %
Floyd Mayweather Jr -220
Manny Pacquiao +160

Higher Jabs Landed %
Floyd Mayweather Jr -275
Manny Pacquiao +190

First jab or punch landed of fight
Floyd Mayweather Jr -130
Pacquiao -110

First jab or punch landed of fight (either fighter)
Left hand -135
Right hand +105

KO/Knockdown prop. (Knocked down or out includes any official knockdowns, KO, TKO, or DQ.)
Either fighter knocked down or out +150
No knockdowns or knockouts -200

Will there be an accidental foul
Yes -200
No +165

Other Specials
Floyd Mayweather Jr vs Manny Pacquiao ends in any DRAW +1400
Manny Pacquiao wins inside the distance +500
Floyd Mayweather Jr wins inside the distance +500
Floyd Mayweather Jr wins by 12 Round Decision -140
Manny Pacquiao wins by 12 Round Decision +450
Floyd Mayweather Jr wins in round 1-3 +2000
Manny Pacquiao wins in round 1-3 +2200

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC 185 Preview

Event: UFC 185
Date: Saturday, Mar. 14, 2015
TV/Time: (PPV, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Venue: American Airlines Center
Location: Dallas, Texas

Lightweight Championship - Anthony Pettis (18-2-0) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (23-7-0)

Line: Pettis -425, dos Anjos +345

Anthony “Showtime” Pettis attempts to win his sixth straight fight and defend the lightweight title against Rafael dos Anjos.

Pettis earned the shot at the lightweight title following three consecutive solid fights in which he had two first round knockouts. He then took on a tough Benson Henderson for rights to the belt and had no issues taking him down with an armbar submission towards the end of the first round. “Showtime” brings to the octagon exactly what his nickname states, a show, as he has training in a multitude of different fighting styles and has the athletic ability to create some amazing knockouts.

On the other side, dos Anjos has been given his first chance at a title behind a recent three-fight winning streak in which he has won twice by a knockout punch. He only has one loss to his credit since the start of 2012 and typically goes the full length of the bout, winning by decision in five of the eight victories; all of which were three rounds. Pettis certainly has the upper-hand here with his ability to get creative and also sneak in plenty of knockouts but he will need to make sure he doesn’t wear himself down against a fighter who has no issues taking the fight to its maximum number of rounds.

Anthony Pettis is an exciting fighter to watch with his high-flying kicks which allow him to either get a surprise knockout or just get his opposition on the ground where he has the strength to earn a submission. All-in-all, Pettis has 18 victories to his name, eight coming via submission, seven by knockout and just two by way of decision. His only two losses also came after a full slate of rounds; one of which was a split decision.

While he is creative with his approach, he is not overly aggressive, landing a mere 2.2 significant strikes per minute on a solid 44% accuracy. The big advantage for “Showtime” is the unexpected takedown as his competitors cannot often predict when he is coming with a specific type of attack, and when he does he typically can get them on the mat with 76% of his takedown attempts ending in success. His athleticism also warrants an impressive defense as he deflects 64% of strikes attempted and 69% of takedown tries. Pettis has the edge in age, height, reach and athletic ability in this one, so a loss would be a big disappointment.

Rafael dos Anjos had a rough start to his UFC career, losing four of his first eight fights with all four of the losses going the full three rounds. Since then he has just one defeat in the last nine attempts and has really showed up recently with two knockouts against Jason High and Benson Henderson, followed by a dominating performance and a unanimous decision in his last matchup with Nate Diaz in December. In that fight, he landed 77 significant strikes on 119 attempts (64%) and showed incredible defense with Diaz landing just 13-of-104 (12%).

This was a very solid showing and his striking accuracy in the match was much higher than his career average of 39%. His pace is a little quicker than his opponents in this one, as he averages 2.9 significant strikes per minute, but opens himself up to some pain with 2.4 strikes absorbed per minute. With his solid yet unspectacular defense, this will be a tough fight to take all five rounds against a super talented fighter like “Showtime” Pettis.

Other UFC 185 Bouts

Womens Bantamweight Matchup
Larissa Pacheco -140
Germaine de Randamie +110

Lightweight Matchup
Joseph Duffy -600
Jake Lindsey +425

Flyweight Matchup
Sergio Pettis -475
Ryan Benoit +350

Heavyweight Matchup
Jared Rosholt -330
Josh Copeland +250

Lightweight Matchup
Daron Cruickshank -175
Beneil Dariush +145

Middleweight Matchup
Elias Theodorou -360
Roger Narvaez +280

Lightweight Matchup
Ross Pearson -425
Sam Stout +315

Flyweight Matchup
Henry Cejudo -500
Chris Cariaso +375

Heavyweight Matchup
Alistair Overeem -195
Roy Nelson +160

Welterweight Matchup
Johny Hendricks -400
Matt Brown +300

Womens Strawweight Matchup
Carla Esparza -185
Joanna Jedrzejczyk +150

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Auto CampingWorld.com 500
By Micah Roberts

Are you kidding me with Kevin Harvick? This guy is on some kind of major roll right now and things will get only tougher for the rest of the NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers as Harvick goes to his best track, Phoenix, this weekend.

All Harvick has done after winning his first Sprint Cup title in 2014 is finish second-place in the first two races of 2015 and then win his first Las Vegas Cup race on Sunday. If we go back to the final three races of 2014, Harvick has finished first or second in six straight races now. He's won in four of his last nine starts.

And now he goes to Phoenix where he's won six times over his career including the last three races there and four of the last five. How do you bet anyone else this week? The only problem with betting Harvick is that the sports books know all this past history as well and you'll be lucky to get 7/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $350).

So let's see if we can make a case for anyone else and to begin with we'll take a look at Jimmie Johnson who will be the second choice to win at 5/1 odds.

All Johnson has done at Phoenix is win four times and average a 7.7 finish which is tops in the series. The only problem with Johnson is that his last Phoenix win was 2009. He's gone 10 races there without winning -- his longest Phoenix drought.

Carl Edwards is the only driver other than Harvick to win at Phoenix over the past five races there. In addition to his 2013 win, he also won in 2010 and has a 12.2 average finish. The problem with Edwards is that he's yet to have a top-10 in three starts in his first year with Joe Gibbs Racing. Because of his past history, you'll only get 12 to-1 odds him which isn't attractive enough considering his slow start to 2015.

Another driver having an awful time of it thus far has been Jeff Gordon who is currently 29th in points. He's had a great car in all three races so far, but has had every kind of bad luck imaginable. On Saturday at Las Vegas, his pole winning car was struck by Danica Patrick in practice and he was forced into a back-up car which had to start from the rear. He's had 32 starts at Phoenix and captured two wins and an 11th-place average finish. His car will be good once again and at 10-to-1 odds, he's an attractive wager. But the bad luck part of his season looms large and might have a few bettors shy away from him at the bet window.

Denny Hamlin also has a career average of 11th-place at Phoenix in his 19 career starts, which includes a win in 2012. Hamlin's best type of tracks over his career has been the flat variety and Phoenix is about as flat as they get. He's had four top-5 finishes in his last six Phoenix starts. He presents good value at 12-to-1 odds.

Brad Keselowski hasn't won at Phoenix before but he did win on similar flat tracks at Richmond and New Hampshire last year. He's finished sixth or better in five of his last six Phoenix starts.

The driver that will probably give Harvick his most competition is Keselowski's Penske Racing teammate Joey Logano who had his best season of racing at Phoenix last year with a fourth and sixth-place finish. Logano has the look of a being a force all season long and he should find himself with his third top-5 finish of the season, and maybe his first win on the track.

The only driver to have top-5 finishes in all three races this season besides Harvick has been Dale Earnhardt Jr., who will get 8-to-1 odds this week. He won at Phoenix in the 2003 and 2004 season and is on a run of finishing eigth or better in his past four starts there, including runner-up in this race last season.

A driver everyopne can't help but root for is Martin Truex Jr. who has shown extraordinary power in the first three races of 2015 and currently sits fifth in points. It's rare to see a single car team have success in NASCAR and it's even rarer to see a team have any success when their garage isn't in Charlotte -- Furniture Row Racing is based out of Denver. If including the two non-points races at Daytona, Truex Jr. has finished eighth or better in all five races, including runner-up at Las Vegas Sunday. His best run at Phoenix was fifth-place in 2009.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #4 Kevin Harvick (7/2)
2) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)
3) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr. (8/1)
4) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
5) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Auto: Drivers to Watch - Phoenix

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Campingworld.com 500
Sunday, March 15 – 3:30 p.m. EDT
Phoenix International Raceway – Avondale, AZ

The fourth race of the 2015 Sprint Cup Series will be the Campingworld.com 500 in Phoenix. Despite the 500 in the name, this race is just 312 laps on the one-mile course as it is one of four races on the schedule that is measured in kilometers. This event has been held in the desert since 2005 and opened as the Subway Fresh 500. The track has progressive banking with 10-11 degree bankings in turns one and two and 8-9 degree bankings in turns three and four.

There have been two multiple-time winners at this event, with Jeff Gordon taking the checkered flag in both 2007 and 2011 as Kevin Harvick did so in 2006 and 2014. In last year’s win he nearly broke the course record with a time of 2:51:23, less than a minute slower than Denny Hamlin’s record (2:50:35) from 2012. Let’s see who can put up an impressive performance this week and dominate the field at PIR.

Drivers to Bet

Jimmie Johnson (7/1) - Johnson has dominated this track in his career and has by far the best rating here at 114.0 behind an average finish of 7.7. He’s only won this specific event once (2008), but owns four checkered flags when circling PIR and has a total of 14 top-fives in 23 races. The six-time Sprint Cup Series Champion is always a solid bet with a victory in 71 of his 474 career races (15%) and he already has a win this year when he took the Fold of Honor QuikTrip 500 just a few weeks ago. He is the safest bet of the top racers this week.

Denny Hamlin (12/1) - Hamlin owns the course record here when he won back in 2012 and ranks sixth among his peers with an average finish of 11.2 at this event. Overall in his time at Phoenix, he has raced 19 times, getting nine top-fives in that time and owns an impressive driver rating of 96.6. Already on the year he has a fourth and a fifth-place finish in the past three weeks and despite an average start of 21.7, is getting in at an average of 15.7. The 34-year-old last won at Talladega last year and has a good chance at adding to his 24 career victories this week.

Martin Truex Jr. (20/1) - Truex Jr. hasn’t had the most success at this track with just one top-five finish in his 18 attempts, but still possesses a decent average finish of 17.7. What really makes him a solid pick this week is his performances so far in the 2015 season as he’s finished eighth, sixth and second in his last three races. He had an average start of 10.7 during that time and looks poised to make this a career season with his best finish in the Sprint Cup Series being 11th in both 2007 and 2012. Truex Jr. has led only 101-of-5,063 laps (2%) when racing at this track, but should build on this number come Sunday evening.

Tony Stewart (33/1) - Stewart is one of the more well-known racers in the Sprint Cup Series as he has tallied 48 career victories and three Sprint Cup Championships. He hasn’t done well at all this year, with his best showing being a 30th finish when in Atlanta, but has shown affection for this track with 11 career top-10’s in his 25 visits, yet has failed to grab a win despite his average finish of 12.2. Stewart’s average green flag speed of 126.052 MPH ranks him as fifth among the field and should allow him to compete throughout the entirety of the 312 laps.

A.J. Allmendinger (100/1) - For his odds, Allmendinger has a very respectable average finish of 16.6 at this racetrack over 11 career attempts. He has two top-10’s as well while owning a driving rating of 80.2 and earned his first career pole back in 2011. He owns just one career victory when he took the Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen last year, but has been breaking out so far in 2015 as he comes off back-to-back top-seven performances at Atlanta and Vegas. It may be worth it to drop a unit on this 33-year-old veteran as he looks to continue a great campaign.

Odds to win Campingworld.com 500

Kevin Harvick 3/1
Brad Keselowski 7/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 8/1
Jeff Gordon 8/1
Jimmie Johnson 8/1
Joey Logano 8/1
Carl Edwards 12/1
Denny Hamlin 12/1
Matt Kenseth 12/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Clint Bowyer 25/1
Kyle Larson 25/1
Martin Truex Jr. 25/1
Ryan Newman 25/1
David Ragan 40/1
Jamie McMurray 40/1
Tony Stewart 40/1
AJ Allmendinger 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Austin Dillon 100/1
Brian Vickers 100/1
Greg Biffle 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Regan Smith 200/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 200/1
Danica Patrick 300/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 300/1
Casey Mears 500/1
Ricky Stenhouse 500/1
Trevor Bayne 500/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Preview: Pistons (23-41) at Trail Blazers (42-20)

Date: March 13, 2015 10:00 PM EDT

After earning a significant win in their second game without Wesley Matthews, the Portland Trail Blazers will try to keep rolling by adding to the Detroit Pistons' woes.

The Blazers will try for their seventh victory in eight games while sending the Pistons to a ninth consecutive defeat Friday night.

Portland (42-20) lost Matthews to a season-ending Achilles injury last Thursday and fell 121-113 at lowly Minnesota two days later in its initial game without him. The Blazers bounced back with a 105-100 win over visiting Houston on Wednesday and clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rockets, one of the top four teams in the Western Conference along with Portland.

With an eight-game cushion in the Northwest Division, the Blazers are in fine position for home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs but face a battle for positioning near the top of the conference.

"We've got 20 games left and it could be a tight race down the stretch," said guard Arron Afflalo, who shot 2 of 13 and scored nine points in his second start in place of Matthews. "We'll continue to fight to try to move up the rankings. So tonight was an important victory."

Portland will try to bolster its chances for a better seed with a fifth consecutive win over Detroit (23-41) and seventh in a row in the series at home. The Blazers open a five-game trip that begins Sunday against Atlantic Division-leading Toronto.

"I think we're just trying to find our rhythm right now," forward LaMarcus Aldridge said. "It's coming to the home stretch and it's the best time to be playing great. I think right now guys are locked in."

Portland dealt Detroit the last of its 13 consecutive defeats Dec. 9 and held the Pistons to their second-worst shooting performance this season at 35.1 percent in that 98-86 victory.

Five of Detroit's eight consecutive losses have come on the road, though the club was competitive against league-leading Golden State on Wednesday until the Warriors pulled away in the fourth quarter of their 105-98 victory.

Andre Drummond had a career-high 27 rebounds - 17 offensive - and 22 points, but the Pistons committed eight of their 15 turnovers in the final period.

"I thought our guys gave a great effort tonight. We just didn't execute and take care of the ball down the stretch," coach Stan Van Gundy said.

The Pistons have lost six in a row and 10 of 11 on the road. One more defeat will clinch their seventh consecutive losing season and give them their longest such run since a stretch of 14 that began with their final season in Fort Wayne, Indiana in 1956-57.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sacramento bringing offense, overs on road trip
Justin Hartling

The Sacramento Kings are six games into an eight game road trip, going over in five of those contests so far. During the road trip the Kings have averaged 108 points while also allowing a high 111.7 points.

Despite an average combined score of 219.5 points during their road trip, the Kings average spread has only been 205.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Raps in tough spot'

Tonight the Toronto Raptors are hosting the Miami Heat at the Air Canada Center. Toronto has hit a rough stretch with a single win the past ten games (2-8 ATS) with the most recent loss a 10 point defeat at the hands of Spurs. Heat off a 104-98 victory over Nets have won six of its past ten on the hardwood (4-4-2 ATS). The home team considered to have a significant advantage over the visitors a result of playing in familiar facilities and in front of supportive fans the betting market has Raptors 5.5 point favorite. This isn't the spot to lay points with Raptors. Our trusted Database tells us an NBA home chalk off a 10 or more point loss facing a conference opponent off win are just 5-19-2 against the betting line. Also, Raptors as home favorite priced at -6.5 or less are a weak 4-8 ATS this campaign, 12-20-1 ATS the past two seasons. When these two foes met earlier the Heat beat the Raptors setting up the clincher for fading Toronto. The Raptors have a 2-7 ATS mark this season revenging a loss.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Championship Week – not the NCAA tournament – is the real March Madness
By Jason Logan

The NCAA tournament is for tourists.

You want the real March Madness? Try cramming every major-conference program as well as a truck full of mid-major teams into a week of basketball, with most of that condensed in a Thursday-to-Sunday window.

Then, try setting odds for every single one of those games, with a wave of new matchups the second those contests are through. And if that’s not enough, sick the sharpest sports bettors in the world on those odds and try to keep the book balanced.

“It’s like a duck on a pond,” Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports for MGM in Las Vegas. “On top everything is peaceful and serene. But underneath, the duck is pedaling like crazy.”

Conference championship week doesn’t carry the pageantry of the NCAA tournament, but for those in the industry there is no busier time. It also doesn’t draw the massive crowds of public bettors, but caters more to the hardcore college hoops fans and professional handicappers.

“The handle for the NCAA tournament is probably a pretty close 50/50 split between sharp and public action. Conference tournament week,” says Rood, “is closer to a 60/40 or 70/30 split in favor of action from the wiseguys.”

Oddsmakers admit that setting odds for the first two big days of the NCAA tournament – Thursday and Friday – is much easier than trying to keep pace with the conference tournaments. And throughout the tournament, books have at least a full day between each teams’ next game.

Championship week not only challenges the oddsmakers to come up with lines for the next day on short notice but doesn’t allow them to come up for air until the whole thing is done Sunday evening – just before the Selection Committee picks its field of 68 and they have to handicap the opening matchups for the national tournament.

“We’re talking about five straight days of non-stop basketball,” Peter Childs of Sportsbook. “It’s exhausting but it’s also super exciting, with wall-to-wall games going. Personally, other than college bowl week from Christmas to January 1, this is my favorite week of the year.”

Despite the fatigue and short turnaround, books can’t afford to make any mistakes during championship week. Unlike the NCAA tournament, which is huge with the casual basketball bettors, the conference tournaments are shark infested waters with wiseguys just waiting for the books to slip and dunk their toe in.

“Our lines will be geared more towards what we think the sharps will do as opposed to what the public will do this week,” says Childs. “Next week (during the NCAA tournament), it’s the complete opposite.”

What is it about the conference tournaments – more than the national tournament – that draws the wiseguys? The overall consensus among sharps is the sheer abundance of games available. The more games, the more opportunities bettors have to find the matchup they want and cash in. It’s also a game of cat and mouse when the odds are released, chasing the added line value before books adjust their numbers.

Another reason championship week is more popular with sharps than the NCAA tournament is the familiarity between the programs. This not only works for situational bettors, looking to cash in on sweeps and revenge spots, but also when crunching the numbers for those conference tournaments.

“Using conference-only stats gives a great read on the teams as they all play common opponents within the same conference,” Steve Merril. “In the NCAA tournament, you normally have teams that played zero common opponents and completely different schedule strengths, so it’s harder to set an accurate power rating.”

Mid-major conference tournaments have been rolling since last week but March Madness – the real March Madness – kicks into high gear Tuesday and Wednesday when the big boys get underway. ACC tournament opens Tuesday, with the Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and Pac-12 starting Wednesday. The AAC tournament tips off Thursday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes -

North Carolina Tar Heels vs Virginia Cavaliers March 13, 07:00 EST

North Carolina Tar Heels (23-10, 18-14-1 ATS) opened tournament play with a lopsided 81-63 victory over Boston College then followed it up with a 70-60 victory over Louisville setting up Friday's ACC semi-final matchup against top-seeded and defending champion Virginia Cavaliers (29-2, 17-12 ATS).

Tar Heels lead by Marcus Paige (13.6) along with three other double digit scorers able to keep up with the best of them dropping 78.2 points/game will be tested against Cavaliers' top scoring defense limiting foes to a meagre 50.1 points/game. These two teams met back on Feb. 2nd in Chapel Hill with Cavaliers earning a 75-64 victory as 1-point road chalk.

When handicapping this contest, a few betting trends to be aware of. Cavaliers have thrived away from home this season going 14-0 SU in true road games and neutral site venues posting a 10-4 record against the betting line. Cavaliers have cashed 4-of-5 in this series and have cashed 5-of-7 as chalk of 4 or less points. Tar Heels enter on a 3-9-1 ATS skid facing a team with a winning record and were 0-8 ATS this season scoring 70 or less points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Big 14 tournament, Chicago
Maryland won its last seven games, allowing 55 ppg in last four; Terps won their first conference tourney game three of last four years, but this is their first Big 14 tourney. Home side won both series games this year; Terps lost by 19 at Indiana Jan 22, then won by hoop at home Feb 11, game that started the Terps' win streak. Indiana is still just 3-9 in last 12 Big 14 tourney games; Hoosiers are 5-8 in their last 13 games- their win last night helped, but win here clinches them in field of 68.

Ohio State is now 16-3 in its last 19 conference tournament games; they used four starters 33+ minutes in 79-73 win last night; OSU won four of its last five games overall, but lost 59-56 at Michigan State Feb 14, with Buckeyes just 5-13 on foul line. Spartans won first conference tourney game eight of last nine years, won six of last eight games overall, with last three wins by 8 or less points. Michigan State shot just 62.4% on line in conference games, worst in league.

Atlantic 14 tournament, Brooklyn
VCU is now 19-5 in its last 24 conference tournament games, but they're struggling without injured PG/leader Weber, going 6-6 in 12 games since he got hurt, with two losses to crosstown rival Richmond; 64-55 at home Jan 31, then 67-63 in double OT on road Feb 25. Rams used three guys 29+ minutes in 63-57 struggle over Fordham last night- VCU trailed by 5 with 8:57 left. Spiders are 1-3 in conference tourney games since winning this event in 2011; they won their last six games overall.

AAC tournament, Hartford
Temple won 61-60 at Memphis Feb 7, after trailing by 16 late in the first half; Owls won despite shooting 33% for night; they were +7 turnovers (15-8). Temple is 0-3 in conference tourney games last three years, losing by 6-5-4 points. Memphis is 21-2 in its last 23 conference tourney games with both losses coming in first round games ('10/'14); Tigers lost three of last four games- their last three wins were by 3 or less points or in OT. Temple won its last three games and ten of last twelve.

Cincinnati won its first conference tourney game last five years; they've won last five games overall, all by 9+ points. Bearcats split pair of games with UConn this year, losing 62-56 at UConn Feb 10, then winning last meeting 70-58 at home Jan 29. UConn is 9-2 in its last eleven conference games, winning last three first round games; Huskies are 3-4 in last seven games, scoring 58 ppg in losing last two. Cincy is safely in field; UConn needs to win tourney to get in; they'll have home court advantage.

ACC tournament, Greensboro
Virginia got star Anderson back for 12:00 off bench, pulled away late vs Florida State; Cavaliers won 10 of their last 11 games, allowing less than 60 points in last seven. North Carolina is 15-7 in ACC tourney last nine years; they're playing third day in row, tough for Paige, who has little help in backcourt. Cavs won 75-64 in Chapel Hill Feb 2, in only meeting this season. Last three times UNC won two ACC tourney games, they lost third one, by 20-3-10 points.

Duke hasn't won this tourney since '11, but they've won last 12 games; they pounded NC State yesterday, leading by 27 at half in low-stress tilt while Notre Dame blew 18-point halftime lead to Miami and had to work hard to win by 7- four Irish starters played 36:00+. Irish won six of last seven games; they beat Duke 77-73 at home Jan 28, then got crushed in Durham, trailing by 26 at half after leading 6-0 early. Only twice in last 12 years has Notre Dame won two conference tourney tilts in same year.

Big East tournament, NYC
Villanova is 8-10 in Big East tourney last 11 years; last time Wildcats got two wins in same tourney was 2004. Villanova crushed Marquette by 35 Thursday, has won 13 games in row, is playing for #1 seed in next week's tournament. Providence won this tourney LY, is 5-2 in last seven games overall; they won true road games yesterday, holding St John's to 31% from floor, but Friars lost twice to Villanova this season- 74-68 at home Feb 11, 89-61 in Philly 13 days later.

Xavier is just 4-3 in its last seven games; they needed OT to beat Butler last night, playing three starters 34:00+.Musketeers beat Georgetown twice this season: 70-53 at home Dec 31, 66-53 on road Jan 27. Hoyas had a 20-6 edge on foul line in tough 60-55 win over Creighton last night, with three Hoyas playing 29:00+. Only one in last eight years has Xavier won more than one conference tourney game. Hoyas are 3-4 in last seven Big East tourneys; 2010 was last time they won more than one game.

Big X tournament, Kansas City
Baylor lost twice to Kansas this year, by 1 at home Jan 7, by 10 on road Feb 14; Bears lost in finals of this tourney two of last three years- they won six of last seven games overall. Baylor beat West Virginia yesterday for third time this year- hard to beat good team three times. Kansas won this tournament six of last nine years; they struggled to beat TCU by 5 yesterday, going 0-8 on arc. If Ellis plays here, thats a big difference; he didn't play yesterday- Mason/Oubre played 34+ minutes vs TCU.

Iowa State won six of last eight games after scoring last 12 points to stun Texas last night; Cyclones lost 94-83 in Norman Feb 9, then beat Sooners 77-70 at home 11 days ago, after trailing by 19 at half. Iowa St played three starters 36:00+ last night; Hoiberg said "we didn't deserve to win" after game. Oklahoma won 10 of last 12 games, but is 1-6 vs spread in last seven. Sooners lost six of last eight Big X tourney games; they had 43-23 second half last night, beating rival Oklahoma State for 3rd time.

SEC tournament, Nashville
Vanderbilt won its last five games and eight of last ten, after starting SEC play 1-7. Commodores won 73-65 in Knoxville Feb 26 (made 13-25 on arc in game they trailed by 11 at half) after losing 76-73 in OT at home to Vols Feb 11 (led by 4 with 0:15 left). Tennessee lost six of last seven, 10 of last 13 games after starting out 4-1 in league play. Vandy won first tourney game four of last five years, losing by 14 LY; Tennessee won first SEC tourney game six of last seven years.

Pac-12 tourney, MGM Las Vegas
UCLA won its last four games against stiffs, scoring 85.3 ppg, since they lost 57-47 at Arizona Feb 21, game Bruins led by three with 10:50 left in only series meeting this season. UCLA shot 40% but had one offensive rebound in game. Wildcats won last nine games, last three by 22+ points; As good as Arizona has been, they haven't won this tournament in last 12 years. UCLA won six of last seven tourney games; they won it last year. Both teams had very easy wins yesterday.

Utah lost 69-58 at Oregon Feb 22, in only meeting this year; Wright had 20 points for Utes, but no one else had more than 7 points. Utes had big 46-17 second half vs Stanford last night; they've split last six games, so they aren't playing their best. Oregon scored 59 points in second half in win vs Colorado last night; Ducks won six in row, 10 of last 11 games. Oregon won five of last six conference tourney games; Utah is 4-3 in 2nd tourney game, last seven times they won a first round game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's six-pack

-- Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez got thrown out of an exhibition game last night after one pitch, a pitch called a ball. Never saw that before.

-- I'm surprised Utah State is passing on the NIT, CBI or CIT; they've got a young team that is pretty good. Stew Morrill is retiring; not really sure why.

-- CIT already has one first round matchup: New Hampshire vs NJIT. Not exactly Duke-Carolina, but I'm sure they're excited about making the postseason.

-- Cavaliers 128, Spurs 125, OT-- Kyrie Irving scored 57 points for Cleveland.

-- Irving played one year at Duke, but never played in an ACC game; he got hurt in pre-conference play and never came back until the NCAA tournament.

-- There are two bowling alleys in the White House; do they have to rent shoes?