Pac-12 Snapshot
By Joe Nelson
While UCLA made the early headlines in the Pac-12, they now trail Arizona and Oregon in the Pac-12 in what is shaping up to be a great race in the second half of the conference season. Right now, only four Pac-12 teams look like they are in good shape to make the NCAA Tournament, but two other teams are in the mix and there have been competitive efforts from some of the squads in the bottom half of the league. Here is a look at the teams in the mix for the conference race and postseason berths.
Favorite – Arizona (9-0 S/U, 4-3-2 ATS): Arizona started the season with some turmoil with injuries and the cloudy status of Alonzo Trier. The Wildcats wound up beating Michigan State on the opening game, but that win wound up losing some strength and losses to Butler and Gonzaga left the Wildcats without a top 50 win in the non-conference season. Arizona has delivered nine consecutive wins to start the conference season ahead of next weekend’s big game at Oregon, the lone regular season meeting. Arizona already beat UCLA and USC on the road though they will have late February meetings with those teams at home. The Wildcats won’t have an amazing overall resume when Selection Sunday comes around as to get a #1 seed they might need to run the table. Despite the limited experience, the size and talent on this squad will still make Arizona a contender for a deep March Madness run looking to get to Final Four that will be played in Glendale, Arizona.
Contender – UCLA (6-3 S/U, 2-7 ATS): The Bruins still have the shortest future odds of any Pac-12 team to cut down the nets in early April, but after making big waves in a 13-0 non-conference campaign with a win over Kentucky, the Pac-12 schedule has taken a toll on Steve Alford’s team. This is the most efficient offensive team in the nation, but in allowing 81 points per game in Pac-12 play the offense faces a lot of pressure to post big numbers. Three road wins show that the Bruins can still be a serious contender in this league and in February they will get revenge opportunities against the three teams that they have lost to while closing the conference season with five of the final seven games at home. With six remaining games vs. the bottom of the conference, the Bruins are still in good shape to post a strong league record and be in the mix for the title if Arizona and Oregon slip.
Overachiever – Oregon (8-1 S/U, 8-1 ATS): After winning the regular season and tournament titles in the Pac-12 last season, Oregon earned a somewhat controversial #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Ducks held their own, but were bounced in the regional final for a 31-7 season. Expectations remained high this season with a great returning roster, but a 2-2 start raised serious questions. Oregon responded with a long winning streak that was just snapped last weekend with a loss at Colorado, the first S/U or ATS loss for the Ducks in conference play. Oregon did beat UCLA at home by two points while also narrowly winning at Utah, but a bumpy path may be ahead in the first half of February, drawing Arizona, UCLA, USC, and Utah in succession. Next week’s game with Arizona in Eugene might look like the conference title game, but in reality, the Ducks could have a few more losses coming as they close the season with five of the final seven on the road. This might be a team that falls short of last season’s championship run though it should still be a fine season and the Ducks will have the potential to win a few games in March.
Sleeper – Utah (6-3 S/U, 6-2-1 ATS): There looks like a clear separation between Utah and the top three teams in the Pac-12 standings and the Utes would also trail USC and perhaps California in NCAA Tournament consideration for the moment, likely on the wrong side of the bubble with a lack of quality wins despite a 15-6 overall record. At 6-3 in conference play, Utah won’t play Arizona or UCLA again and the road game at Oregon looks like the only extremely difficult remaining game in conference play. An 8-1 run the rest of the way looks possible and while 14-4 might not be enough to take the league title it isn’t completely out of the question with the teams at the top set for upcoming head-to-head matchups. Utah’s home win over USC is the best on its resume as there are no top 50 wins for the Utes who played a very light non-conference schedule. A bad loss to San Francisco will also hamper the profile, but Larry Krystkowiak has led Utah to back-to-back 13-5 Pac-12 seasons and despite this looking like a step-back season overall, that mark is pretty realistic and would likely be enough to get the Utes back into the Big Dance.
Enigma – USC (5-4 S/U, 3-6 ATS): After the great run in March 2013 taking Florida Gulf Coast to the Sweet 16 as a #15 seed, Andy Enfield endured two challenging seasons at USC before a solid 21-win season last year brought the Trojans to the NCAA Tournament. This year’s team is on pace to fly past last season’s record, but major questions are there for a really young team that went 13-0 with some close calls against marginal competition in the non-conference season. The win over SMU at home is all that stood out on the resume until last week’s huge home win over rival UCLA. That brought USC to 5-4 in Pac-12 play and gave the team just its fifth top 100 win. The Trojans will be favored to win the next three games before facing Oregon, UCLA, and Arizona in succession as a late season slide is possible for this squad. The win count is likely going to be strong and those two top 25 caliber wins should be enough to get the Trojans into the NCAA Tournament, but it just isn’t clear how good this team is given that two Pac-12 road losses came by 23 and 22 points and the two other Pac-12 losses came at home.
Bubble Team – California (6-3 S/U, 4-5 ATS): Last season, the Bears were upset as a #4 seed in the NCAA Tournament by Hawai’i for a sour finish to an up-and-down season for a very talented team. This year’s team could compile a similar overall record but a dearth of quality wins will leave the Bears potentially sweating on Selection Sunday. California has played a fairly high quality schedule, but they just haven’t won any of the big games outside of a narrow one-point win at USC, one of just three wins away from home all season long. The 6-3 Pac-12 mark includes losses to the top three teams in the league, but the Bears are going to have to play Arizona and Oregon again as well as playing Utah and Colorado twice each for a rather difficult remaining conference schedule that will also include five of the final seven games on the road. The defensive numbers are excellent and with potential NBA lottery pick Ivan Rabb plus a possible next level prospect in senior Jabari Bird the potential is there for the Bears, but unless they come up with a big upset over Arizona or Oregon, the margin of error will be very small for this squad the rest of the way.
Dark Horse – Colorado (2-7 S/U, 2-6-1 ATS): The Buffaloes are not a threat to win the Pac-12 title, but they are a team well outside the NCAA Tournament radar right now that could make a strong late season run to have a chance at inclusion. An uneven 10-3 non-conference campaign featured quality wins over Texas and Xavier before starting 0-7 in Pac-12 play. Colorado had to play five of the first seven games on the road in league play and the home games were difficult games vs. UCLA and USC. Colorado got a huge win last weekend over Oregon and while they face the Ducks on the road in a few weeks, they don’t have to play UCLA, USC, or Arizona the rest of the way. Ultimately back-to-back overtime losses to Washington and Washington State probably sealed the fate of the Buffaloes, but this is a team that is a lot stronger than the record shows and one of the most experienced squads in the conference has a chance to make some late season noise with a favorable remaining schedule.
Pac-12 Notes: Arizona (9-0) and Oregon (8-1) meet up next weekend for the first time with the winner considered to be in the driver’s seat in the Pac-12 race. Not since 2003-04 has a Pac-12 champion finished as good as 17-1 and 10 of the last 12 seasons, the champion finished with at least three conference losses. On the other end of the spectrum, 0-9 Oregon State is in danger of being the first team to fail to win a conference game in Pac-12 play since the Beavers went 0-18 in 2007-08. None of the nine losses for Oregon State have come by fewer than seven points and the remaining schedule is difficult with next week’s home game with Arizona State likely the best remaining opportunity for a squad that made the NCAA Tournament last season but has been hindered by injuries to two key players this season.
