STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 2/28/14
NCAA COLLEGE BASKETBALL
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 2/28/14 NCAACB Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Friday's Notebook
•Seton Hall won six of last eight games with Providence; they won first meeting this year 81-80 (+6.5) in double OT, after leading by 12 in 2nd half. Pirates lost five of last six games, 10 of last 14- they covered once in last four games when favored. Providence split its last six road games; they've played three double OT games. Big East home favorites of 5 or less points are 11-8 versus spread. Six of last seven Friar games went over.
•Columbia won three in row, 10 of last 14 games; they beat Dartmouth 69-59 (-8.5) Feb 15, shooting 62% from arc in game they trailed by 4 at half. Lions are 2-3 on Ivy League road, winning by 1 at Princeton, at Cornell by 16. Columbia is 6-3 in last nine series games, winning two of last three at Dartmouth, winning by 21-2. Ivy League home dogs of 7 or less points are 6-2 versus spread. Dartmouth lost its last six games, five by 9+ points.
•Harvard (-16) won 67-44 at Cornell Feb 15, its 7th series win in a row, winning last three here by 21-11-9 points; they shot 65.5% inside arc, 8-16 outside in first meeting. Cornell is 1-22 versus D-I teams, with only one road loss by more than 12 points. Ivy League double digit home favorites are 3-5 against the spread. Harvard has tough game with Columbia on Saturday, could rest starters early here.
•Yale (+1.5) beat Princeton 66-65 in OT Jan 15, game they trailed by 11 in second half; Bulldogs are game behind Harvard in Ivy, need to win to keep pace before they meet again. Ivy League home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-1 versus spread. Tigers are 3-5 in last eight games, but won two of last three at home. Five of last seven Yale games stayed under total. Yale won three of five road games, losing at Brown/Columbia.
•Brown (-5) beat Penn 62-55 Feb 15, game they trailed by 6 with 9:46 to play, just their second series win in last 11 games. Bruins lost last three visits to Penn by 2-11-23 points. Quakers turned ball over 22 times (-10) in first meeting; they're 4-5 in league play, but won three of last four home games. Brown is 2-3 on Ivy League road, winning at Dartmouth/Cornell. Ivy League home teams are 8-3 in games where spread was 3 or less points.
•Washington State (+2.5) beat Washington 72-67 Feb 1, after being down 8 with 13:40 left; Cougars outscored Huskies 21-9 on foul line, turned ball over only five times (+7), in their first series win in last seven games versus Huskies. Washington lost five of last seven games but is 5-1 at home in Pac-12, with only loss to California. Pac-12 home favorites of 9+ points are 18-13. WSU is 0-8 on Pac-12 road, with seven losses by 11+ points.
•Canisius (-5.5) beat Rider 94-91 in double OT Jan 10, after being down 9 with 10:40 left in game where Griffins shot 68% inside arc. Golden Griffins lost four of last six in series, but won two of last three visits here. Rider lost five of its last six games. MAAC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 5-11 versus spread. 13 of last 14 Canisius games went over the total; eight of last 11 Rider games stayed under.
•Iona (-2.5) shot 56% inside arc, beat Manhattan 85-73 at home Jan 31, its 6th win in last eight series games. Gaels won three of last four visits to Draddy Gym; they've won 11 games in row, with three of last six by 3 or less points. MAAC home favorites of less than 5 points are 11-15 versus spread. Jaspers won six of last seven games overall, six of last seven at home. Four of last five Iona road games went over the total.
•Marist (-3.5) beat Fairfield 75-56 Jan 2, outscoring Stags 32-11 on foul line; home side won last six series games. Red Foxes lost last six visits here, by 2-5-9-7-6-34 points. Fairfield lost 10 of last 12 games, is 2-7 at home in conference play, with wins over Manhattan/Monmouth. MAAC home teams are 9-14 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Seven of last nine Fairfield games went over the total.
•Monmouth (+7) won 85-74 at Niagara Jan 10, in game with 53 fouls, 42 turnovers; Eagles were just 6-23 on arc. Hawks lost last nine games, four by 4 or less points or in OT; they've lost last four home games. Niagara lost its last eight games, last five on road, with four of five losses by 13+ points. Five of last six Monmouth games stayed under total. MAAC home favorites of less than 5 points are 11-15 versus spread.
•Situational Trends of The Day
-- RIDER is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in home games after a game where they made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse since 1997.
The average score was RIDER 72.5, OPPONENT 68.6.
-- YALE is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was YALE 66.4, OPPONENT 65.0.
-- PRINCETON is 11-0 (+11.0 Units) against the 1rst half line off a home loss by 10 points or more since 1997.
The average score was PRINCETON 30.2, OPPONENT 25.5.
-- DARTMOUTH is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after playing 3 consecutive games as a road underdog since 1997.
The average score was DARTMOUTH 26.8, OPPONENT 29.7.
-- PAUL CORMIER is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points as the coach of DARTMOUTH.
The average score was CORMIER 59.2, OPPONENT 68.2.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- CORNELL is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997.
The average score was CORNELL 67.2, OPPONENT 69.9.
-- WASHINGTON is 10-0 OVER (+10.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games since 1997.
The average score was WASHINGTON 82.7, OPPONENT 70.6.
-- CORNELL is 28-9 (+17.9 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts since 1997.
The average score was CORNELL 30.6, OPPONENT 32.3.
-- RIDER is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was RIDER 30.1, OPPONENT 29.6.
-- STEVE MASIELLO is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts as the coach of MANHATTAN.
The average score was MASIELLO 72.1, OPPONENT 68.8.
•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 versus the money line (PRINCETON) – an average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%) after 15+ games, revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a road favorite against opponent off a loss against a conference rival.
(324-60 since 1997.) (84.4%, +142.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -303.2
The average score in these games was: Team 72.4, Opponent 63.6 (Average point differential = +8.8)
The situation's record this season is: (18-3, +11 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (84-14, +44.3 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (133-26, +56.5 units).
-- Play On - Any team where the line is +3 to -3 (NIAGARA) - a horrible defensive team (>=78 PPG) against a poor defensive team (74-78 PPG) after 15+ games , revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more against opponent off 2 consecutive home losses.
(32-9 since 1997.) (78.0%, +22.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (34-7)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 4.5
The average score in these games was: Team 71.3, Opponent 63.4 (Average point differential = +7.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 12 (30% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (10-3).
-- Play On - An underdog where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (MARIST) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG) after 15+ games, off a home loss against a conference rival, a bad team (20% to 40%) playing against a terrible team (<=20%).
(34-9 since 1997.) (79.1%, +24.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 32.4, Opponent 30.1 (Average first half point differential = +2.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (12-3).
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Friday's Match-ups
#815 PROVIDENCE @ #816 SETON HALL
(TV: 7:00 PM EST, CBS Sports Network - Line: Seton Hall -2, Total: N/A) - Providence rides the proverbial bubble into Seton Hall on Friday as the visiting Friars look to bolster their NCAA Tournament hopes. The biggest black mark on the Friars' resume might be their 81-80 double-overtime home loss to the Pirates on Dec. 31. Seton Hall has won six of the last eight meetings between the longtime Big East rivals.
Despite losing four of its last six games, some experts still project Providence will eke into the 68-team field, but another loss to Seton Hall likely would change that outlook. The Pirates have their own postseason prospects to worry about as they look to move back above .500 and improve their stock among those teams left out of the NCAA Tournament. Seton Hall is looking to sweep the season series for the fourth time in five years.
•ABOUT PROVIDENCE (18-10, 14-13-0 ATS, 8-7 Big East): The Friars boast a quartet of double-digit scorers led by Bryce Cotton (21.5 points, 5.9 assists per game), who is on track to become only the fifth player from a major conference to average more than 20 points and five assists since 2002. Cotton's backcourt mate, sophomore Josh Fortune, has improved his offensive production lately, scoring in double figures in five of the last six contests. All three starters in the frontcourt - LaDontae Henton (13.2 points, seven rebounds), Kadeem Batts (12.6, 7.6) and Tyler Harris (12.1, 5.3) - are capable scorers who are tough on the boards.
•ABOUT SETON HALL (14-14, 14-13-0 ATS, 5-10 Big East): The Pirates return home after dropping consecutive road games at Creighton and DePaul by a combined six points and losing five of six overall. Seton Hall is led by swingman Fuquan Edwin (15.1 points), who has registered at least 20 points and two steals in four straight games. Sterling Gibbs (13.8 points, 4.3 assists) gives the Pirates a big spark off the bench and Eugene Teague (10.3 points, 7.5 rebounds) is a force in the post with seven double-doubles - tied for the most in the Big East.
•PREGAME NOTES: Cotton has played every second in 11 of the last 13 games and is averaging 41.8 minutes in conference play thanks to three double-overtime games.... Edwin has 288 career steals - second-most among active players (Ohio State's Aaron Craft, 321) - and needs one to become the seventh player in Big East history with 150 steals in conference play.... The Friars are No. 1 in the nation from the free-throw line at 79 percent with Harris (86.1) and Cotton (84.4) leading the way.... Seton Hall is 0-6 versus the spread in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game over the last two seasons.... Providence is 6-15 against the spread in road games after a game where they covered the spread over the last three seasons.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, SETON HALL covered the spread 588 times, while PROVIDENCE covered the spread 412 times. *EDGE against the spread =SETON HALL. In 1000 simulated games, SETON HALL won the game straight up 644 times, while PROVIDENCE won 334 times. In 1000 simulated games, SETON HALL covered the first half line 529 times, while PROVIDENCE covered the first half line 471 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--SETON HALL is 14-9 against the spread versus PROVIDENCE since 1997.
--SETON HALL is 14-9 straight up against PROVIDENCE since 1997.
--8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--SETON HALL is 13-9 versus the first half line when playing against PROVIDENCE since 1997.
--9 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Road team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
--Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Seton Hall.
•RECENT TRENDS
--PROV is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big East.
--Over is 4-0 in PROV last 4 vs. Big East.
--Over is 4-1 in PROV last 5 Friday games.
--Under is 6-2 in HALL last 8 overall.
--Over is 8-2 in HALL last 10 home games.
--Under is 6-2 in HALL last 8 vs. Big East.
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#825 WASHINGTON ST @ #826 WASHINGTON
(TV: 10:30 PM EST, Pac-12 Network - Line: Washington -8, Total: N/A) - The return of DaVonte Lacy led Washington State to a 72-67 victory over rival Washington, snapping a six-game losing streak in the series earlier in the year. The Cougars look for the season sweep when they visit the Huskies at Seattle on Friday. It won't be easy as Washington State has lost five straight games and is 0-9 in conference play on the road.
With six seasons remaining on a 10-year contract, Lorenzo Romar appears safe as the coach of Washington. But the Huskies, a game under .500 and tied for seventh in the conference, will need a miracle to earn an NCAA Tournament berth. Friday's game is the first of three straight home contests for Washington to wrap up the regular season.
•ABOUT WASHINGTON STATE (9-18 SU, 8-14-1 ATS, 2-13 Pac-12): After two stints on the sidelines due to injury, it is fair to say Lacy is back to 100 percent. He scored a career-high 39 points against California earlier this month and is closing in on 1,000 points for his career while averaging a team-best 19.3 points. The Cougars have had little consistency elsewhere, however, as senior D.J. Shelton is the only other player in double figures at 10 points per game.
•ABOUT WASHINGTON (15-13 SU, 13-14-0 ATS, 7-8 Pac-12): Senior C.J. Wilcox scored 23 points and moved into second all-time in school history with a career total of 1,814 points as the Huskies walloped Oregon State 86-62 in their last game. The victory snapped a two-game skid and a favorable schedule remaining has set the Huskies up for a strong finish. Washington has won seven of its last eight games at home but dropped its last game 72-59 against California.
•PREGAME NOTES: Washington has outrebounded its last four opponents.... Washington State G Que Johnson finished with 15 points, reaching double figures for the 11th time in the Cougars' win over Washington.... Attendance has waned for the Huskies, who are averaging just 6,439 fans in its 10,000-seat arena on the season.... The Huskies are 0-7 versus the spread when playing against a team with a losing record this season.... The Cougars are 0-6 against the spread in road games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 12 turnovers/game this season.
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
--In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON covered the spread 504 times, while WASHINGTON ST covered the spread 453 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON won the game straight up 766 times, while WASHINGTON ST won 219 times. In 1000 simulated games, WASHINGTON ST covered the first half line 493 times, while WASHINGTON covered the first half line 456 times. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--WASHINGTON ST is 20-15 against the spread versus WASHINGTON since 1997.
--WASHINGTON is 22-14 straight up against WASHINGTON ST since 1997.
--13 of 24 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1997.
--WASHINGTON is 20-14 versus the first half line when playing against WASHINGTON ST since 1997.
--12 of 24 games in this series have gone OVER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1997.
--Cougars are 6-2-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Washington.
--Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.
--Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Washington.
--Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--WSU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Pacific-12.
--WSU is 4-15-2 ATS in their last 21 road games.
--Under is 5-1 in WSU last 6 Friday games.
--WASH is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
--WASH is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games.
--Under is 6-1 in WASH last 7 home games.
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