Friday 2/17/12 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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David Chan Comp

Predators @ Red Wings
PICK: Over 5.5

I bet value where I see it and am expecting to see some offensive fireworks, as these two well rested teams battle it out on Friday night.

The Predators are 33-18-6 and are coming off a 3-2 win over the Blackhawks on Tuesday.

Defenseman Ryan Ellis returned from injury to get the go ahead goal, and he also chipped in an assist:

“It was a great response from Ellis,” Nashville coach Barry Trotz said. “He is a really smart player. But the last couple of games he had gotten a little too cute and it hadn’t worked out for him.

“We told him to keep it pretty simple and pretty smart. We told him we wanted him to make the right plays and make good decisions on defense. And obviously he contributed offensively.”

The win snapped a three game slide, and this team will obviously now be looking to build upon that performance.

The Red Wings are 39-17-2 (including 24-2-1 at Joe Louis Arena), and are coming off a 3-1 win over Dallas on Tuesday:

“In the end when they were really cheering, before and after the buzzer went, it was a pretty cool feeling,” forward Henrik Zetterberg said.

“Anytime you’re in a race like we are, you need the points,” Red Wings coach Mike Babcock said (referring to the New York Rangers).

There are some tough divisions in the NHL, and certainly the Central is right there amongst the most difficult to play in; Detroit, surging St. Louis, consistent Nashville and dangerous Chicago all have playoff aspirations.

Expect these two teams to open it up and for this total to sneak above the posted number!
 
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Ben Burns Comp

Nashville Predators @ Detroit Red Wings
PICK: Detroit Red Wings

Talk about no respect. The Red Wings have won 21 straight at home. Tuesday's 3-1 victory, their 21st, broke the single-season mark of 20 that Boston had set back on 1929-30 and which Philadelphia had matched in the 1976.

Given that type of home ice dominance, one would expect them to be very steep favorites. Yet, they've only opened as mid-sized favorites. I feel that's providing solid value.

While the streak will eventually come to an end, the Wings still have unsettled business. That's because those 1929-30 Bruins still have a 22-game home winning streak, one which spanned two seasons. Another couple of victories and the Wings can erase that one too.

The Wings also have motivation to keep winning, as they're battling for top spot in the regular season.

As coach Mike Babcock said. "Anytime you're in a race like we are, you need the points ... "

Captain Nicklas Lidstrom echoed his coach's comments: "It's something we're going to cherish, but we've talked about getting more points to stay where we are in the standings ... "

The Wings also easily (4-1) defeated the Predators in this season's lone meeting here. That brought them to 14-6 the last 20 times that they were a host in the series. Consider laying the wood.
 
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Marc Lawrence Comp

Yale @ Dartmouth
PICK: Dartmouth

Dartmouth hosts Yale in an Ivy League battle tonight the Big Green will take the floor knowing they are 9-4-1 ATS as dogs this season, including 6-1-1 ATS when playing off back-to-back losses. On the flip side, the Bulldogs enter off an upset win over Columbia knowing they are just 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in games after taking on the Lions. Stay at home with the hungry hosts tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Dartmouth.
 
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Jack Jones Comp

Houston Rockets -4½

The Houston Rockets want serious revenge on the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. They come into this game with double revenge, having lost their last two meetings with the Timberwolves, both coming this season. This is a very generous price on the motivated Rockets playing at home Friday.

Houston has been superb at home all season. The Rockets are 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in 14 home games, outscoring opponents by 7.6 points/game. They are coming off one of their most impressive wins of the season, a 96-95 home victory over Oklahoma City to prove they can play with the best.

Minnesota is an improved team this season, but they are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers here. The Timberwolves are still at least another year away from being a contender in the West. Meanwhile, the Rockets are certainly a team you will be seeing in the playoffs, and they won't be an easy out.

The Timberwolves are 7-16-2 ATS in their last 25 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. The Rockets are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. The favorite is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings, and the Rockets are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 meetings. Bet Houston Friday.
 
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Jim Feist Comp

Columbia vs Princeton
Pick: Under

Two teams with winning records overall and two strong defensive ones, which will mean a slow paced, defensive duel. The under is 53-25-1 in the Columbia Lions last 79 overall. Princeton has home court but is not a strong shooting team (.435%) , but the defense has allowed 58, 47 and 62 points the last three games, including that big upset of Harvard. The under is 18-7-1 in the Columbia Lions last 26 games following a loss and when these teams meet the under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. Play Columbia/Princeton under the total.
 
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Dave Cokin Comp

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers

Miami is red hot, but now they're laying doubles on the road with a big game on deck. The Heat haven't lost a game since Orlando took them out a couple weeks back, and next up for Miami is the rematch. I know it's a "homecoming" for King James, but this number is very high and I like the Cavaliers to get the cover.
 
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Nelly Comp

Orlando - over Milwaukee

Orlando has endured a tumultuous season but the offense is finally starting to click with 99 or more points in seven of the last eight games. The Magic are quietly 19-11 with wins in seven of the last nine games and this may be a forgotten team in the Eastern Conference. Jameer Nelson seems to be coming out of his early season funk and Dwight Howard is showing more consistent performances on both ends of the floor. Ryan Anderson has also been a recent sparkplug, posting 20 plus in four of the last nine games. Orlando is just 11-6 S/U at home this season but three of those losses came in overtime and this should still be considered one of the tougher home courts in the league. The Magic have recent home wins over Philadelphia, Miami, and the Lakers and when motivated this team is capable of beating anyone. Milwaukee gave the Magic a tough game less than a week ago so this match-up will have the home team’s attention and that game ended up tight due to a very slow start from Orlando, scoring just 16 points in the first quarter. The Magic came back to win despite a well played game from the Bucks and with the absence of Andrew Bogut, Howard will be a very tough match-up. Veteran Drew Gooden has been taking on the center role and a heavy scoring load in recent Milwaukee games but he will have his hands full on defense in this match-up and Milwaukee will need to find other contributors inside, something they have not consistently done. The Bucks are just 5-10 on the road this season with a 6-9 ATS mark and Milwaukee has lost ATS in seven of the last eight games. These teams will play each other a third time in a short span with another match-up back in Milwaukee on Monday and Orlando has won seven of the past eight meetings with the home team going 7-3 ATS in the past ten meetings. Eight of last twelve Orlando wins have come by eight or more points and the Magic are more capable of blowouts than most expect.
 
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DEREK MANCINI COMP

For today's Bonus Play, I'm siding with the slumping Bucks to keep it within the number at Orlando. I know, I know, the Bucks have been awful of late, but let's not get carried away. Their last meeting (just six days ago) was a close 99-94 contest, and Milwaukee is absolutely desperate for a win right now. Moreover, I refuse to believe Richardson is going to go off like he did Saturday (when he hit nine 3-pointers).

Going back once again to that meeting Saturday, you have to believe Jennings will play better tonight. He went 3 for 14 for 7 points and that's just not the kind of basketball we're used to seeing him play. I give credit where credit is due, but the Magic's perimeter defense isn't THAT good. Jennings will make his presence felt in this one and that's a big part of the reason I'm backing the Bucks here.

Finally, anyone who's followed the Bucks of late knows they're 4-0 ATS in their L4 games as a road dog. This is a team that tends to play up to their level of competition, at least as far as the line is concerned. The public may be quick to forget about all the Magic's deficiencies, but I'm not. All things considered, take Milwaukee plus the points over Orlando Friday.
2? MILWAUKEE
 
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CRAIG DAVIS COMP

Tonight's Bonus Play is on the Dallas Mavericks over Philly.

It's not often you see the defending NBA champs as listed dogs, but tonight in Philly they are getting between three and four points and I think that's crazy.

Dallas has won five straight games after dropping three in a row, beating Portland, Denver twice, the Clippers, and Minnesota. It's taken them some time to gel as a somewhat new unit, but it appears they are on the right track.

Lamar Odom is starting to come along and Brendan Haywood is starting to become more involved on the offensive end. When Dallas plays defense, they win. It's pretty simple.

As for the Sixers, they were hot for a while but have since cooled, dropping three of their last five SU and four of their last five ATS. Like Dallas, Philly is only as good as their defense allows them to be. They're allowing just 84 PPG at home on the season, but when they allow more than 90 points... they lose 90% of the time. That's kind of the key number for both their offense and defense.

Go look at their previous schedule and you'll see when they score 90 or more points while allowing less than 90, they are winning at an incredible rate... but the opposite is also true.

Take the Mavs plus the points as your Bonus Play of the day.
3? DALLAS
 
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Mike Wynn
Bonus Play: Pennsylvania -6½ Over Cornell

Totals4U
Friday's free selection: Golden State Warriors/Oklahoma City Thunder over 210

Free Selection from Sports Machine
Denver / Memphis Over 197

#1 Sports
Friday's free selection: Golden State Warriors + 10 1/2

Platinum Plays
Free Pick: Toronto Raptors -6½ Over Charlotte

Free Selection from Nevada Sharpshooter
Brown +21.5 over Harvard

Golden Dragon Sports
Bonus Play: Milwaukee +8'

Hawkeye Sports
Your free selection for Friday: Virginia Common. -6 over Northern Iowa

Huddle Up Sports
Free Winner: Dallas +3

Teyas Sports
Free Pick 2/17/2012 NHL HURRICANES

High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Friday: Loyola Marymount Lions - 6 1/2
 
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Courtesy of Brisnet

SPOT PLAYS

For Friday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (3rd) Afternoon Treat, 3-1
(7th) Power King, 7-2

Beulah Park (6th) Five Sigma Event, 3-1
(7th) Suddenly Perfect, 5-1

Charles Town (1st) Spirit of Flatter, 6-1
(5th) Belle Valee, 8-1

Delta Downs (9th) Diamond Donna, 8-1
(11th) Lake Australis, 7-2

Fair Grounds (5th) Majestic Song, 7-2
(8th) Silver Indy, 7-2

Golden Gate Fields (6th) Rockaway Moon, 5-1
(7th) Can't Topper, 7-2

Gulfstream Park (3rd) Classical Fashion, 3-1
(8th) Roman Invasion, 3-1

Hawthorne (3rd) Sea Why, 7-2
(5th) Angel First Class, 7-2

Laurel Park (3rd) Just Ask Eric, 4-1
(4th) Skip the Night, 9-2

Oaklawn Park (1st) Theatre of Dreams, 3-1
(7th) Mercadian, 4-1

Penn National (1st) Peanutbutter Cup, 9-2
(4th) Marine Hymn, 3-1

Sam Houston (9th) In a Twinkling, 6-1
(10th) Sugar Princess, 9-2

Santa Anita (3rd) Mr. Newton, 4-1
(8th) Lutess, 6-1

Sunland Park (8th) Aldebaran Star, 6-1
(9th) Gavita, 6-1

Tampa Bay Downs (6th) Swiftwater Rogue, 3-1
(8th) Celtic City, 9-2

Turf Paradise (4th) This Girl Rules, 3-1
(9th) Millie N Marie, 3-1

Turfway Park (5th) Royal Integrity, 3-1
(11th) Royal Ensign, 8-1

HIGHLIGHTS

For Friday

BEULAH PARK (1:15): $6,500 alw, 3&up, 1m (2ND).
DELTA DOWNS (6:45): $40,000 alw, 3yo, f, 6 1/2f (7TH).
FAIR GROUNDS (1:40): $49,000 ocl, 3yo, 5 1/2fT (9TH).
GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (3:45): $32,500 ocl, 4&up, f&m, 1m (4TH).
GULFSTREAM PARK (12:35): $56,500 ocl, 4&up, f&m, 5fT (9TH).
HAWTHORNE (2:40): $36,000 ocl, 3&up, f&m, 6f (8TH).
LAUREL PARK (12:35): $39,000 ocl, 4&up, 6f (8TH).
OAKLAWN PARK (2:30): $42,000 alw, 4&up, 6f (8TH).
PENN NATIONAL (6:00): $34,000 ocl, 4&up, 6f (5TH).
SAM HOUSTON (8:00): $22,000 ocl, 4&up, f&m, 6f (1ST).
SANTA ANITA (4:00): $60,000 ocl, 4&up, f&m, 6 1/2fT (4TH); $60,000 ocl, 4&up, 6 1/2fT (7TH).
SUNLAND PARK (2:25): $30,000 alw, 4&up, 6 1/2f (10TH).

*all times Eastern
 
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Courtesy of Rick Needham

AQUEDUCT RACE COURSE (OZONE PARK, NEW YORK) FRIDAY FEBRUARY 17, 2012

With wagering on Instant Racing growing each month, Kentucky Downs racetrack has received approval to add 75 more electronic games to the 200 that have been in use since Sept. 1. The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission voted unanimously Feb. 15 to approve the expansion of Instant Racing at the Franklin, Ky., track. Twenty of the machines approved by the commission have already gone into use after the premises were inspected by KHRC staff; the additional 55 machines will be installed once they have been received from the manufacturer. The machines have been placed in use in Kentucky based on advisory opinions that the wagers are pari-mutuel because they are based on the results of previously run horse races in which the Instant Racing bettor does not know the outcome in advance. However, the legal status of the machines has been challenged in court. Corey Johnsen, president of Kentucky Downs, said wagering on Instant Racing, officially called historic racing due to the nature of the gaming, has increased each month since the machines began operating. As a result, the track, Kentucky horsemen, breeders, and the state’s General Fund have benefitted handsomely from the new gaming.

RACE #8 - AQUEDUCT RACE COURSE - 3:46 PM EASTERN POST
6.0 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES OPTIONAL CLAIMING
$51,000.00 PURSE

#5 MCCARREN PARK
#4 EXPRESSION
#1 DOWNHILL JOEY
#6 BLUSHING MARTHA


#5 MCCARREN PARK takes a class drop (-5), and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of her last four outings, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her 2nd and 3rd races back. Jockey Ramon Dominguez and Trainer Steve Asmussen send her to the post ... they've hit the board with 63% of their entries saddled as a team to date.

#4 EXPRESSION, a 4-1 shot, is the overall speed leader in this O.C. field sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in two straight, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her 2nd race back, winning easily, by some 7 lengths, in just the 2nd start of her young career to date.
 
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Courtesy of Michael Dempsey

AQUEDUCT Race 1 Clm $16,000N1Y (12:20 ET)
ML
FAIR

#4 Soda Pop Kid
6/1 4/1

#2 Premium Wine
5/2 5/2

#7 Dahlgren Chapel
2/1 3/1

#3 Have You Ever
3/1 7/2


Analysis:
#4 Soda Pop Kid caught a sloppy track last out at Philly, making a mild late rally while wide to finish fourth at this condition. This guy has lost 15 in a row, his last win coming back in '10, but he catches a weak group here and his last pair of speed figs are a good fit. Decent value if he goes off near his 6/1 ML.

#2 Premium Wine drops back in for a tag here after a fifth place finish against state bred optional claimers last out. The eight year old stalked the early pace, made a move to get into the mix and flattened out late to finish 1 1/4 lengths behind the winner. He owns a solid pace profile throughout and looks like a good fit here in his second start off the claim by the Contessa barn. He owns the top last out speed fig and the barn has had some luck using this bug.

Race Rating: $$

Wagering

WIN: #4 to win at 4/1 or better.

EX: 2,4 / 2,3,4,7

TRI: 2,4 / 2,3,4,7 / 2,3,4,5,7
 
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Courtesy of The Walker Group at Oaklawn

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $18200 Class Rating: 67

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000, IF FOR $20,000, ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

# 3 GOT IT TOGETHER 8/5

# 1 DROPPED CALL 9/5

# 8 CEE CEE'S HOT 8/1



I think GOT IT TOGETHER is a decent choice. Has to be given consideration against this group of animals displaying very good numbers recently and an average Equibase Speed Figure of 71 under similar conditions. With Court on top her, this filly ought to be able to break out sharply in this competition. Could beat this group of horses given the 71 Equibase Speed Fig put up in her last outing.

DROPPED CALL - Should be carefully examined in this contest if only for the very good speed figure posted in the last contest. Calhoun has this filly racing well and is a solid selection based on the decent Equibase Speed Figures put up in route races lately.

CEE CEE'S HOT - This filly with Thompson in the saddle makes her a solid choice.
 
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Courtesy of F.A.S.T. Sheets Race for Aqueduct


Aqueduct - Race 3 Exacta, Trifecta, Pick 3 Races (3-5), Daily Double Wagers

Claiming $15,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Inner Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 97 • Purse: $31,000 • Post: 1:21P
INNER DIRT FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR FOUR YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE DECEMBER 17, 2011 ALLOWED 3 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).
Contenders Race Analysis
P# Horse Morn
Line Accept
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner.
TOUGH MARKET is the Lone Front-runner of the race.
* KEY ANGLES *
TOUGH MARKET: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).

MONASTIR: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days.

CREPE AU SUCRE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.

AFTERNOON TREAT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.

I LOVE IT: Horse ha s run a Good Race within the last 30 days.

1 TOUGH MARKET 9/5 5/1
3 MONASTIR 5/1 6/1
5 CREPE AU SUCRE 12/1 7/1
6 AFTERNOON TREAT 3/1 8/1
1A I LOVE IT 9/5 9/1

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
P# Horse (In Running Style Order) Post Morn
Line Running Style Good
Class Good
Speed Early Figure Finish Figure Platinum
Figure

1 TOUGH MARKET 1 9/5 Front-runner 87 87 87.4 83.6 73.1
2 RAECINJASIN 2 5/2 Stalker 86 77 88.2 77.2 65.2
6 AFTERNOON TREAT 7 3/1 Alternator/Stalker 98 88 70.4 82.5 76.5
5 CREPE AU SUCRE 5 12/1 Trailer 102 95 69.0 83.2 78.2
3 MONASTIR 3 5/1 Trailer 101 91 68.0 90.0 84.0
1A I LOVE IT 6 9/5 Trailer 93 87 68.0 89.6 84.1
4 GAMBLIN FEVER 4 8/1 Alternator/Non-contender 93 75 75.0 79.0 68.5
 
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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Santa Anita Park

RACE #7 - SANTA ANITA PARK - 4:08 PM PACIFIC POST

6½ FURLONGS DOWNHILL TURF COURSE FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD OPTIONAL CLAIMING $60,000.00 PURSE

#8 CHOSEN MIRACLE
#2 RAUSCHENBERG
#3 MY SUMMER SLEW
#5 SANDOR


#8 CHOSEN MIRACLE is the overall speed and pace profile leader in this O.C. field this afternoon sprinting at, or about, today's distance of 6½ furlongs on the turf, has nice early speed abilities to compliment. He's hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four of his last five starts, winning in his 5th race back ... he's coming off a "POWER RUN PLACE" finish facing better company (+3) in his last start, missing a "Circle Trip" in that race by just a "photographed nose" at the wire.

#2 RAUSCHENBERG has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of his last four "adventures," including a "POWER RUN WIN" in his 2nd race back.
 
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Courtesy of The Walker Group at Dubai World Cup

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Race 6 - Stakes - 9.0f on the Turf. Purse: $200000 Class Rating: 111

BALANCHINE SPONSORED BY S O G OPERATIONS S. - GRADE 2 FOR NORTHERN HEMISPHERE BRED, FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARDS AND SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE BRED, THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARDS, FILLIES AND MARES.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES

# 10 MAHBOOBA (AUS) 2/1

# 8 FIRST CITY (GB) 9/2

# 1 MARVADA (IRE) 20/1


I think about MAHBOOBA (AUS) here. In this field, this one is highly ranked earnings per start in turf route races. She must be given a shot given the quite good speed figures. Ran a strong last race.

FIRST CITY (GB) - She has garnered very good figs under today's conditions and ought to fare well versus this field. Could best this field based on the Equibase speed fig - 111 - of her last outing.

MARVADA (IRE) - Will probably compete admirably in the pace battle which bodes well with this group of animals. May best this group here, showing very strong figs of late.
 

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