Mr. Vegas
Free Friday NBA Play from Mr. Vegas: 11/14
The Houston Rockets are making a case for one of the best in the West and taking the place of their instate rivals, San Antonio. James Harden and Dwight Howard have led this team to a 7-1 start and in fact, this club has won all seven of their games by at least 10 points. They went down to Mexico to play against Minnesota on Wednesday and cruised to another easy win, 113-101. This team has been very efficient in their scoring and now play one of the worst defensive teams in Philly. The Sixers still looking for their first win of the season are 0-7 S/U and 3-4 ATS. The Sixers coming off a blowout loss at Toronto, 120-88, making the club 0-3 ATS on the road. Too much fire power here for the Rockets as they blow away the hapless Sixers.
Take Houston.
Free Friday NBA Play from Mr. Vegas: 11/14
The Houston Rockets are making a case for one of the best in the West and taking the place of their instate rivals, San Antonio. James Harden and Dwight Howard have led this team to a 7-1 start and in fact, this club has won all seven of their games by at least 10 points. They went down to Mexico to play against Minnesota on Wednesday and cruised to another easy win, 113-101. This team has been very efficient in their scoring and now play one of the worst defensive teams in Philly. The Sixers still looking for their first win of the season are 0-7 S/U and 3-4 ATS. The Sixers coming off a blowout loss at Toronto, 120-88, making the club 0-3 ATS on the road. Too much fire power here for the Rockets as they blow away the hapless Sixers.
Take Houston.
Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Friday 10:00 PM
(755) WISC MILWAUKEE at (756) AUBURN
Take: (756) AUBURN -11
It’s the dawn of a brand new era for Auburn basketball. Bruce Pearl is back on the sidelines following a three-year exile from coaching, and the excitement level at Auburn is off the hook. Season tickets are sold out for the first time in 15 years,. and Pearl has been seen at what appears to be every local event over the past several months.
There’s some irony here as Pearl makes his return against a team he used to coach. He basically put UW-Milwaukee on the map some years back, and that’s really where he put his name on the national college hoop landscape.
This is not a great Auburn team, and not even Pearl will change that right away. They’re thin in terms of quality depth and they’re actually tiny by today’s standards. But Pearl still believes they’re capable of getting their share of wins and getting into one of the post-season events. That might be a reach, but this guy has never had a losing season, so don’t bet against him overcoming some long shot odds this season. As for tonight, I expect tremendous enthusiasm and the physical shortcomings of the Auburn roster might not show up right away. Plus, Pearl will want to strut his stuff for as many eyes as possible with ESPNU on hand to televise the proceedings.
Milwaukee has some issues. The Panthers have seven players back from last season’s NCAA Tournament team. But Austin Arians, the best shooter on the squad, is dinged up and his status as of right now is questionable. More troubling for Rob Jeter’s team are the off the court problems. Milwaukee won’t be making a return trip to the Big Dance. Their academic shortcomings earned them a one-year ban from post-season play. The punishment also included a loss of four hours of practice time per week, and I consider that critical this early in the season when as much as practice as possible is key.
There’s some risk here, in that Auburn might not be good enough to cover doubles. But this a case of arrow up, arrow down for me. Pearl is an enormous upgrade from the deposed Tony Barbee in every regard. Jeter has his work cut out with a team that could have trouble focusing, particularly in out of conference games.
I think the oddsmakers might agree with me here. This line is higher than it ought to be off the consensus power ratings. My general take is when a betting number is substantially off where it appears it ought to be, trust the guys who are making the numbers. Add in what could be a big home court advantage and for at least this one evening, I see Auburn as go with material. I likely won’t make a habit of spotting big numbers with the Tigers, but Auburn minus the points looks right to me tonight.
Bonus Play Friday 10:00 PM
(755) WISC MILWAUKEE at (756) AUBURN
Take: (756) AUBURN -11
It’s the dawn of a brand new era for Auburn basketball. Bruce Pearl is back on the sidelines following a three-year exile from coaching, and the excitement level at Auburn is off the hook. Season tickets are sold out for the first time in 15 years,. and Pearl has been seen at what appears to be every local event over the past several months.
There’s some irony here as Pearl makes his return against a team he used to coach. He basically put UW-Milwaukee on the map some years back, and that’s really where he put his name on the national college hoop landscape.
This is not a great Auburn team, and not even Pearl will change that right away. They’re thin in terms of quality depth and they’re actually tiny by today’s standards. But Pearl still believes they’re capable of getting their share of wins and getting into one of the post-season events. That might be a reach, but this guy has never had a losing season, so don’t bet against him overcoming some long shot odds this season. As for tonight, I expect tremendous enthusiasm and the physical shortcomings of the Auburn roster might not show up right away. Plus, Pearl will want to strut his stuff for as many eyes as possible with ESPNU on hand to televise the proceedings.
Milwaukee has some issues. The Panthers have seven players back from last season’s NCAA Tournament team. But Austin Arians, the best shooter on the squad, is dinged up and his status as of right now is questionable. More troubling for Rob Jeter’s team are the off the court problems. Milwaukee won’t be making a return trip to the Big Dance. Their academic shortcomings earned them a one-year ban from post-season play. The punishment also included a loss of four hours of practice time per week, and I consider that critical this early in the season when as much as practice as possible is key.
There’s some risk here, in that Auburn might not be good enough to cover doubles. But this a case of arrow up, arrow down for me. Pearl is an enormous upgrade from the deposed Tony Barbee in every regard. Jeter has his work cut out with a team that could have trouble focusing, particularly in out of conference games.
I think the oddsmakers might agree with me here. This line is higher than it ought to be off the consensus power ratings. My general take is when a betting number is substantially off where it appears it ought to be, trust the guys who are making the numbers. Add in what could be a big home court advantage and for at least this one evening, I see Auburn as go with material. I likely won’t make a habit of spotting big numbers with the Tigers, but Auburn minus the points looks right to me tonight.
Jim Feist
Comp NBA Pick for Friday, November 14, 2014: 8:05 PM EST
(715) DETROIT PISTONS VS (716) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Take: over the total.
Reason: Your Your Bonus Play for Friday, November 14, 2014 is in the NBA contest between the Detroit Pistons and the Thunder in Oklahoma City. Detroit is not a stellar defensive team, scoring 103 the last game but still losing at Washington. The over is 38-13 after the Pistons allow 100 points or more in their previous game, plus 25-9 over the total when the Pistons face the Western Conference. They are also on a 64-30 run over the total overall! Oklahoma City is 5-2 over the total against the Eastern Conference, off a big offensive game. Reggie Jackson had 28 points and eight assists, and Anthony Morrow scored 28 to lift the injury-riddled Thunder to a 109-94 victory over the Boston Celtics on Wednesday night. The over is 6-1 in the Thunder's last 7 games following a win of more than 10 points, all of which means this NBA total is too low. Your Bonus Play is on the Detroit Pistons/OKC Thunder Over the total.
Comp NBA Pick for Friday, November 14, 2014: 8:05 PM EST
(715) DETROIT PISTONS VS (716) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
Take: over the total.
Reason: Your Your Bonus Play for Friday, November 14, 2014 is in the NBA contest between the Detroit Pistons and the Thunder in Oklahoma City. Detroit is not a stellar defensive team, scoring 103 the last game but still losing at Washington. The over is 38-13 after the Pistons allow 100 points or more in their previous game, plus 25-9 over the total when the Pistons face the Western Conference. They are also on a 64-30 run over the total overall! Oklahoma City is 5-2 over the total against the Eastern Conference, off a big offensive game. Reggie Jackson had 28 points and eight assists, and Anthony Morrow scored 28 to lift the injury-riddled Thunder to a 109-94 victory over the Boston Celtics on Wednesday night. The over is 6-1 in the Thunder's last 7 games following a win of more than 10 points, all of which means this NBA total is too low. Your Bonus Play is on the Detroit Pistons/OKC Thunder Over the total.
Joe Gavazzi
Tulsa vs. Central Florida
Bonus Play Central Florida -20.5
Hard to lay this many points with a UCF offense that is scoring just 26 PPG on 330 YPG and 4.8 YP play. Clearly, QB Bortles is missed. Yet, the situation and fundamentals clearly favor the home team. Last week, UCF lost 37-29 at lowly UConn, when QB Holman threw 4 INTs. Along with 23-21 revenge from a loss last year, that provides plenty of incentive for a 5-3 SU UCF team against a towel-tossing 2-7 SU Tulsa team, whose defense is allowing 39 PPG and who is on a 6-15 ATS slide. Considering the UCF stop troops qualify as a Defensive Dandy, we can only consider one side if we are playing.
Tulsa vs. Central Florida
Bonus Play Central Florida -20.5
Hard to lay this many points with a UCF offense that is scoring just 26 PPG on 330 YPG and 4.8 YP play. Clearly, QB Bortles is missed. Yet, the situation and fundamentals clearly favor the home team. Last week, UCF lost 37-29 at lowly UConn, when QB Holman threw 4 INTs. Along with 23-21 revenge from a loss last year, that provides plenty of incentive for a 5-3 SU UCF team against a towel-tossing 2-7 SU Tulsa team, whose defense is allowing 39 PPG and who is on a 6-15 ATS slide. Considering the UCF stop troops qualify as a Defensive Dandy, we can only consider one side if we are playing.
NCAAB Rankings - 25-1
By The SportsBoss
While we still have weeks before the 2014-2015 college basketball season tips off there is always the craving for solid analytics in any sport – perhaps the most popular is college basketball since it has 330-plus teams, driving significant alumni interest & opportunities to profit wagering.
Last season I wrapped up development & released the SportsBoss Power Index (SBPI), a comprehensive model that measures how strong each team in the country performs by grading 10 statistics on both offense & defense followed by adjusting performance based on SOS.
Listed below are my Top 100 SBPI teams of the last 12 seasons:
#25: 2008 Duke 408.2 [28-6] – still in the ’08 season like the team above this Duke squad was SBPI #3 but was the only top 5 SBPI team to NOT reach the Final Four that season. Instead, as a #2 seed, they bowed out to #7 seed West Virginia in the 2nd round. Keep in mind though that WVU team was SBPI #6, suggesting they were woefully under seeded heading into the tournament, and thus this matchup should have never occurred that early.
#24: 2011 Purdue 408.5 [26-8] – the best Boilermakers club (along with #85 the only two in the Top 100) of the last 12 seasons was the 2011 version that had an SBPI of #2 yet only received a #3 seed and fell in the 2nd round to SBPI #46 VCU by a wide 18 point margin. Perhaps no shame in losing to VCU as they would go all the way to the Final Four before falling to Butler in the semifinals, but it was surely a disappointment for the Purdue faithful.
#23: 2009 North Carolina 409.1 [34-4] – the ultra-talented Tar Heels of 2009 were just SBPI #4 that season but were properly placed as a #1 seed and HAMMERED everyone on their way to another national title. Here are the margins of victory in each game, starting with the first round & ending with the championship game win over Michigan State in Detroit: 43, 14, 21, 12, 14, 17. Their performance in the 2009 NCAA Tournament was one of the all-time best.
#22: 2005 Villanova 410.8 [26-9] – this is the 2nd best Villanova team of the last 12 seasons & will be remembered by the “phantom” travelling call against Allan Ray during a Sweet 16 game vs. UNC in Syracuse. This was Nova’s first NCAA appearance under Jay Wright, and was the Jr. season for what some ranked as the #1 recruiting class of 2002 that included Randy Foye, Allan Ray, Curtis Sumpter & Jason Fraser. This team checked in at SBPI #2, only behind UNC whom they would face in the Sweet 16 – far too early for that matchup. Villanova lost F Curtis Sumpter in the 2nd round win over Florida & thus went down by 1 point to UNC. Those Tar Heels would go on to win their 4th national title that season.
#21: 2003 Kansas 410.8 [30-8] – KU of 2003 was SBPI #2 yet were passed over for a #1 seed settling on the #2 line. It did not matter to these Jayhawks who reached the national title game before falling to SBPI #14 Syracuse. As mentioned above that was Boeheim’s first & only national title as the Orange were led by freshman F Carmelo Anthony.
#20: 2009 Michigan State 411.5 [31-7] – these Spartans were SBPI #3 but just like the above Jayhawks they fell to the #2 line. And again similar to KU above Sparty went on a run to the national title game before falling to SBPI #4 North Carolina in blowout fashion in Detroit.
#19: 2013 Indiana 414.5 [29-7] – the only Hoosiers team on the list is this version whom checked in at SBPI #2. The Big Ten regular season champs earned a #1 seed and reached the Sweet 16 before falling in DC to Syracuse, who was well under seeded as a #4 with an SBPI of #6. Having a pair of SBPI Top 6 teams meeting in the Sweet 16 is far too early, and the Cuse took advantage with their zone defense to stifle the Hoosiers high powered offense. Syracuse would go on to destroy Big East rival Marquette in the Elite 8 before falling to Michigan in the national semifinals.
#18: 2005 North Carolina 415.2 [33-4] – perhaps only 2nd to the 2009 version (which can be debated) this UNC squad oozed NBA talent, had the #1 SBPI, earned the #1 overall seed & rumbled through the competition to win the national title. Perhaps the irony of UNC is their best SBPI team (see below) did not win the national championship while their 2nd & 3rd best teams did. Keep in mind since 2009 the Heels have not had an SBPI Top ten team – that is likely to change in 2015.
#17: 2004 Wisconsin 417.4 [25-7] – according to SBPI Bo Ryan’s best team was this version which checked in at SBPI #2 but only earned a #6 seed in the dance. Although they appeared to be given the cold shoulder on that low seed it seemed to play out accordingly as they were upended in the 2nd round vs. #3 seed / SBPI #23 Pitt by 4 points.
#16: 2010 Kansas State 420.9 [29-8] – Frank Martin’s best team according to SBPI & also the team he went deepest in the NCAA Tournament with was this squad who checked in at SBPI #3. They were slotted on the #2 line (not a huge injustice) & made a run all the way to the Elite 8 before losing to upstart Butler (SBPI #11). Butler would go on to lose to Duke in the national title game (their second straight appearance) while neither K-State nor Frank Martin (now at South Carolina) has reached the Sweet 16 since.
#15: 2003 Kentucky 421.0 [32-4] – this was Kentucky’s best team under Tubby Smith over his last five seasons checking in at SBPI #1 that year. They earned a #1 seed, advanced to the Elite 8 where they lost by 14 to #3 seed / SBPI #23 Marquette, led by Dwayne Wade. Wade was absolutely spectacular in that Elite 8 game posting one of the best performances in the history of the NCAA Tournament with 29 points (on 16 shots), 11 assists, 11 rebounds and 4 blocks (Triple-Double). Marquette of 2003 had the 3rd lowest SBPI ranking of any team that beat a Top 30 team of the last 12 seasons, and that perhaps caught up with them when they were destroyed in the national semifinal by 33 points to SBPI #2 Kansas.
#14: 2007 North Carolina 421.9 [31-7] – ironically the ’07 Heels, the best of the SIX teams that UNC has in the Top 100 of the last 12 seasons, did not win the national title. Almost as amazing this UNC team was not even the SBPI #1 in 2007 – that was the team discussed two spots down; they were however #2 & earned a #1 seed. They would reach the Elite 8 and face the Georgetown Hoyas, who despite being ranked just #23 according to SBPI were a #2 seed and had won both the regular season & Big East Tournament championships. At the IZOD Center in East Rutherford the Hoyas would take down mighty UNC in OT 96-84, earning the school’s first final four berth since 1985. Georgetown would go on to lose in the semifinals to SBPI #2 Ohio State while UNC would go on to reach the Final Four in each of the next two seasons, winning their 5th national title just 2 years later.
#13: 2008 Kansas 427.7 [37-3] – the 5th Kansas team on the list was the best of the Bill Self era, and not coincidentally they won the national title. What has some irony to it is they were SBPI #2 that season, just behind another team listed below (UCLA); keep in mind as mentioned above 4 of the top 5 SBPI teams reached the Final Four in 2008, and the entire Final Four was comprised of #1 seeds as well. In the national semifinal Kansas destroyed SBPI #5 UNC 84-66 while in the other matchup SBPI #4 Memphis beat SBPI #1 UCLA by 15. It led to an epic championship game which featured a pair of big name coaches in Bill Self & John Calipari both seeking their first national championship. Of course this game will be remembered for Memphis’ struggles from the FT line late in regulation allowing the Jayhawks to come back from a 9 point deficit with 2:12 remaining to win by 7 in OT. Not only was it Self’s first (and only) national title but it was the first time Kansas hoisted the trophy since Danny Manning’s 1988 team.
#12: 2007 UCLA 428.5 [30-6] – the first of two Bruins’ teams in the Top 12 is the ’07 version that was SBPI #1 (was also the 2nd year of a 4 year run where the Bruins never finished outside the Top 6 in SBPI ’06-’09) yet only earned a #2 seed (Kansas was #1) but stayed out West. Playing in Sacramento then San Jose was perfect for the Bruins despite being jobbed with the seeds as they were able to handle SBPI #10 Kansas easily in the regional final sending UCLA to their 2nd straight Final Four. It was there they met defending national champion Florida, who had an SBPI of just #9 but a ton of experience & NBA talent on their roster. They dropped a 10pt decision there as Florida would go on to win their 2nd straight national title. UCLA would be back the following season – see below.
#11: 2014 Florida 432.0 [36-3] – amazingly this is just the 2nd Billy Donovan team that has landed inside the Top 100 of the last 12 seasons despite the fact UF has won 2 national titles, albeit in back to back seasons – and the fact they were SBPI ranked #8 & #9 those two seasons. Last year’s Gators team battled Arizona for the top spot most of the season, and pulled away late mostly following the injury to Arizona’s Brandon Ashley. Following 3 straight Elite 8 season’s this Gators team was able to secure the school’s first Final Four appearance since 2007 but were upended by eventual champion UConn in the national semifinals.
#10: 2010 West Virginia 434.0 [31-7] – the 2010 WVU team was SBPI #2 and leveraged a Big East Tournament championship into a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Mountaineers reached the Final Four for just the 2nd time in school history before bowing out to SBPI #1 Duke (see below for more on that team). This was also Bob Huggins’ first Final Four appearance since 1992 with Cincinnati & the Mountaineers have not been to the Sweet 16 since.
#9: 2008 UCLA 436.0 [35-4] – this was UCLA’s best team of the last 12 seasons & 9th best rating of any team during that time period. They were ranked SBPI #1 in 2008, earned a #1 seed but were upended vs. SBPI #4 Memphis (#26 of L12 years, see above). This Bruins team made its 3rd straight Final Four appearance (have not been back since), set the school record for wins, won the Pac 10 regular season & tournament championships and were led by F Kevin Love although he came up small in the Final Four scoring just 10 points in their loss to Memphis.
#8: 2011 Ohio State 438.9 [34-3] – OSU of 2011 is the first of just 3 teams in the Top 16 listed here that did not reach at least the Elite 8. This Buckeyes team was SBPI #1, earned a #1 seed & reached the Sweet 16 before falling to SBPI #4 Kentucky by just 2 points. Again, having a pair of Top 4 SBPI teams facing off in the Sweet 16 is far too early, and unfortunately for OSU that is how the cards fell in 2011. These Buckeyes started the season 24-0 before dropping their first game of the season at Wisconsin (SBPI #14) on February 12th. They bounced back beating Michigan State but lost their next road game, at Purdue (SBPI #2). They won the Big Ten regular season & tournament championships, and all 3 losses on the season came against SBPI Top 14 teams, with 2 of the 3 vs. Top 4 teams. This is the 2nd OSU team that is ranked inside the Top 8 of the L12 seasons, quite impressive; in addition although neither of those teams were able to win the title they both lost by just 2 points.
#7: 2009 West Virginia 445.2 [23-12] – WVU’s second Top 10 team was their ’09 squad which was SBPI #2 (see below for 2009’s #1 team) but only earned a #6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Despite being well under seeded WVU was not even able to escape the 1st round, falling to #11 seed Dayton who had an SBPI of #62, the lowest rated team to beat a Top 55 team from this list. What’s more they are also the only team inside that same Top 55 to lose in the 1st round – both points go back to #56 Villanova. These Mountaineers seem to be a clear outlier, mostly inflated by a Top 10 SOS however 6 of their 12 losses were by 6 points or less & their final one in the NCAA Tournament was by 8.
#6: 2006 Villanova 448.4 [28-5] – this is the top rated Jay Wright team AND the second best Big East team of the last 12 years – which was the Sr. season for the quad of recruits mentioned above. This Villanova team had the biggest margin between #1 & #2 in a single season as they would have been 6.5pt favorites over SBPI #2 Texas that season according to SBPI! 2006 Nova would tie UConn for the Big East regular season championship (both 3 full games ahead of the next team), reach the Elite 8 before falling to SBPI #8 Florida, who would go on to win the first of back to back championships that season.
#5: 2013 Louisville 453.3 [35-5] – starting our Top 5 of the last 12 seasons is ’13 Louisville, who was SBPI #1 that season and went on to win the national championship. Four of our top 5 teams here at least reached the Final Four, with two winning it all – see below for the other one! This was such a strong Cardinals team – they won both the Big East regular season & tournament titles (the final season of the true Big East) while winning their first four NCAA Tournament games by the following margins, starting with the 1st round: 31, 26, 8, 22 (blasting SBPI #3 Duke by 22 points in the regional final). In the Final Four the games got tighter, but this team was inspired by Kevin Ware, their guard who suffered the gruesome broken leg in the regional final the week before. They took down SBPI #12 Wichita State in the semifinals & SBPI #10 Michigan in the championship game, securing Rick Pitino’s first title since 1996 Kentucky, and Louisville’s first since Pervis Ellison’s 1986 team.
#4: 2004 Duke 454.0 [31-6] – amazingly (or maybe not so much considering it’s Duke AND they have a whopping 9 teams on our Top 100 list) Duke has 3 of the top 4 teams of the last 12 seasons – but only one (#1 below) actually won the national championship! This version won the ACC regular season, secured a #1 seed and reached the Final Four where they fell to #3 seed & SBPI #9 Georgia Tech by just 2 points. This was not an overly talented Duke team as they had just 2 draft picks (Deng 1st, Duhon 2nd) on the roster. Nevertheless they played well together as a team, and lost a tight one in the Final Four.
#3: 2012 Ohio State 456.2 [31-8] – the best of the 5 Ohio State teams in the Top 100 was the 2012 version (SBPI #1), who like #6 Villanova had a huge edge on the 2nd best team that season Kentucky, as much as a 6.5 point edge when talking ATS. But as we know games do not always play out to what a line projects to be – as teams can play better or worse on any given night – and unfortunately for the Buckeyes they reached the Final Four where they fell to SBPI #3 Kansas by just 2 points. This team was ranked in the Top 10 every week of the season, but left Buckeye nation looking for their first championship since 1960. OSU has finished 1, 1, 4, 7 in SBPI ranking the last four years (#7 last season) so there is plenty of hope that national title may be right around the corner.
#2: 2009 Duke 457.8 [30-7] – Coach K’s second best team in SBPI from the last 12 seasons was the 2009 version, who secured a #3 seed despite being SBPI #1 but took a 23 point beat down in Beantown during the Sweet 16 vs. SBPI #8 Villanova – the only team in the Top 5 to not reach the Final Four. These Blue Devils won the ACC Tournament & were led by Kyle Singler & Gerald Henderson among others. Duke was ranked inside the Top 9 all season but getting swept by North Carolina likely kept them off the top line – that UNC team would go on to win the national title. Duke would bounce back angry the following season – see below.
#1: 2010 Duke 466.3 [36-5] – the TOP TEAM OF THE LAST 12 SEASONS of college basketball is the 2010 Duke Blue Devils who rebounded from the disappointment of the 2009 season to hoist their only national championship during this time period. In the 2010 NCAA Tournament Duke faced some stiff competition too: 2nd round vs. SBPI #14 California, Sweet 16 vs. SBPI #6 Purdue, Elite 8 vs. SBPI #22 Baylor, Final Four vs. SBPI #2 West Virginia & Championship game vs. #11 Butler. That is four of their six games vs. Top 11 SBPI teams from 2010. This team also won the Preseason NIT, co-champions of the ACC regular season & winner of the ACC Tournament & were never ranked outside the Top 10 all season with much of the same roster as the 2009 team that is ranked #2 overall just above.
Now that we have counted these teams down let’s take a look at appearances by team in the Top 100, listed in parenthesis:
DUKE: (9) '04, '05, '07, '08, '09, '10, '11, '13, '14
NORTH CAROLINA (6) '04, '05, '07, '08, '09, '11
PITTSBURGH: (6) '03, '07, '08, '09, '11, '14
VILLANOVA: (6) '05, '06, '07, '09, '10, '14
KANSAS: (5) '03, '08, '10, '11, '12
KENTUCKY: (5) '03, '05, '11, '12, '14
OHIO STATE: (5) '07, '11, '12, '13, '14
WISCONSIN: (5) '04, '05, '08, '13, '14
ARIZONA: (4) '03, '06, '13, '14
LOUISVILLE: (4) '08, '09, '13, '14
MICHIGAN STATE: (4) '05, '09, '12, '13
TEXAS: (4) '03, '04, '06, '11
WEST VIRGINIA: (4) '08, '09, '10, '11
UCLA: (3) '07, '08, '09
CONNECTICUT: (2) '09, '11
FLORIDA: (2) '05, '14
MARQUETTE: (2) '08, '09
MEMPHIS: (2) '08, '09
OKLAHOMA STATE: (2 '04, '05
PURDUE: (2) '10, '11
SYRACUSE: (2) '12, '13
TENNESSEE: (2) '08, '14
CLEMSON: (1) '07
ILLINOIS: (1) '05
INDIANA: (1) '13
KANSAS STATE: (1 '10
LSU: (1) '06
MISSOURI: (1) '09
OKLAHOMA: (1) '03
SAN DIEGO STATE: (1) '11
STANFORD: (1) '08
TEXAS A&M: (1) '10
VIRGINIA: (1) '14
WAKE FOREST: (1) '04
WASHINGTON: (1) '09
XAVIER: (1) '10
In addition here is a breakdown by year of the Top 100 teams:
2003 - 6
2004 - 6
2005 - 9
2006 - 4
2007 - 7
2008 - 12
2009 - 13
2010 - 8
2011 - 11
2012 - 5
2013 - 8
2014 - 11
That covers the countdown of College Basketball’s Top 100 SBPI teams of the last dozen years. As mentioned above these rankings are adjusted for SOS & also calibrated across seasons so I could provide estimated betting lines on a hypothetical game between any teams over the last 12 seasons including all teams listed above.
By The SportsBoss
While we still have weeks before the 2014-2015 college basketball season tips off there is always the craving for solid analytics in any sport – perhaps the most popular is college basketball since it has 330-plus teams, driving significant alumni interest & opportunities to profit wagering.
Last season I wrapped up development & released the SportsBoss Power Index (SBPI), a comprehensive model that measures how strong each team in the country performs by grading 10 statistics on both offense & defense followed by adjusting performance based on SOS.
Listed below are my Top 100 SBPI teams of the last 12 seasons:
#25: 2008 Duke 408.2 [28-6] – still in the ’08 season like the team above this Duke squad was SBPI #3 but was the only top 5 SBPI team to NOT reach the Final Four that season. Instead, as a #2 seed, they bowed out to #7 seed West Virginia in the 2nd round. Keep in mind though that WVU team was SBPI #6, suggesting they were woefully under seeded heading into the tournament, and thus this matchup should have never occurred that early.
#24: 2011 Purdue 408.5 [26-8] – the best Boilermakers club (along with #85 the only two in the Top 100) of the last 12 seasons was the 2011 version that had an SBPI of #2 yet only received a #3 seed and fell in the 2nd round to SBPI #46 VCU by a wide 18 point margin. Perhaps no shame in losing to VCU as they would go all the way to the Final Four before falling to Butler in the semifinals, but it was surely a disappointment for the Purdue faithful.
#23: 2009 North Carolina 409.1 [34-4] – the ultra-talented Tar Heels of 2009 were just SBPI #4 that season but were properly placed as a #1 seed and HAMMERED everyone on their way to another national title. Here are the margins of victory in each game, starting with the first round & ending with the championship game win over Michigan State in Detroit: 43, 14, 21, 12, 14, 17. Their performance in the 2009 NCAA Tournament was one of the all-time best.
#22: 2005 Villanova 410.8 [26-9] – this is the 2nd best Villanova team of the last 12 seasons & will be remembered by the “phantom” travelling call against Allan Ray during a Sweet 16 game vs. UNC in Syracuse. This was Nova’s first NCAA appearance under Jay Wright, and was the Jr. season for what some ranked as the #1 recruiting class of 2002 that included Randy Foye, Allan Ray, Curtis Sumpter & Jason Fraser. This team checked in at SBPI #2, only behind UNC whom they would face in the Sweet 16 – far too early for that matchup. Villanova lost F Curtis Sumpter in the 2nd round win over Florida & thus went down by 1 point to UNC. Those Tar Heels would go on to win their 4th national title that season.
#21: 2003 Kansas 410.8 [30-8] – KU of 2003 was SBPI #2 yet were passed over for a #1 seed settling on the #2 line. It did not matter to these Jayhawks who reached the national title game before falling to SBPI #14 Syracuse. As mentioned above that was Boeheim’s first & only national title as the Orange were led by freshman F Carmelo Anthony.
#20: 2009 Michigan State 411.5 [31-7] – these Spartans were SBPI #3 but just like the above Jayhawks they fell to the #2 line. And again similar to KU above Sparty went on a run to the national title game before falling to SBPI #4 North Carolina in blowout fashion in Detroit.
#19: 2013 Indiana 414.5 [29-7] – the only Hoosiers team on the list is this version whom checked in at SBPI #2. The Big Ten regular season champs earned a #1 seed and reached the Sweet 16 before falling in DC to Syracuse, who was well under seeded as a #4 with an SBPI of #6. Having a pair of SBPI Top 6 teams meeting in the Sweet 16 is far too early, and the Cuse took advantage with their zone defense to stifle the Hoosiers high powered offense. Syracuse would go on to destroy Big East rival Marquette in the Elite 8 before falling to Michigan in the national semifinals.
#18: 2005 North Carolina 415.2 [33-4] – perhaps only 2nd to the 2009 version (which can be debated) this UNC squad oozed NBA talent, had the #1 SBPI, earned the #1 overall seed & rumbled through the competition to win the national title. Perhaps the irony of UNC is their best SBPI team (see below) did not win the national championship while their 2nd & 3rd best teams did. Keep in mind since 2009 the Heels have not had an SBPI Top ten team – that is likely to change in 2015.
#17: 2004 Wisconsin 417.4 [25-7] – according to SBPI Bo Ryan’s best team was this version which checked in at SBPI #2 but only earned a #6 seed in the dance. Although they appeared to be given the cold shoulder on that low seed it seemed to play out accordingly as they were upended in the 2nd round vs. #3 seed / SBPI #23 Pitt by 4 points.
#16: 2010 Kansas State 420.9 [29-8] – Frank Martin’s best team according to SBPI & also the team he went deepest in the NCAA Tournament with was this squad who checked in at SBPI #3. They were slotted on the #2 line (not a huge injustice) & made a run all the way to the Elite 8 before losing to upstart Butler (SBPI #11). Butler would go on to lose to Duke in the national title game (their second straight appearance) while neither K-State nor Frank Martin (now at South Carolina) has reached the Sweet 16 since.
#15: 2003 Kentucky 421.0 [32-4] – this was Kentucky’s best team under Tubby Smith over his last five seasons checking in at SBPI #1 that year. They earned a #1 seed, advanced to the Elite 8 where they lost by 14 to #3 seed / SBPI #23 Marquette, led by Dwayne Wade. Wade was absolutely spectacular in that Elite 8 game posting one of the best performances in the history of the NCAA Tournament with 29 points (on 16 shots), 11 assists, 11 rebounds and 4 blocks (Triple-Double). Marquette of 2003 had the 3rd lowest SBPI ranking of any team that beat a Top 30 team of the last 12 seasons, and that perhaps caught up with them when they were destroyed in the national semifinal by 33 points to SBPI #2 Kansas.
#14: 2007 North Carolina 421.9 [31-7] – ironically the ’07 Heels, the best of the SIX teams that UNC has in the Top 100 of the last 12 seasons, did not win the national title. Almost as amazing this UNC team was not even the SBPI #1 in 2007 – that was the team discussed two spots down; they were however #2 & earned a #1 seed. They would reach the Elite 8 and face the Georgetown Hoyas, who despite being ranked just #23 according to SBPI were a #2 seed and had won both the regular season & Big East Tournament championships. At the IZOD Center in East Rutherford the Hoyas would take down mighty UNC in OT 96-84, earning the school’s first final four berth since 1985. Georgetown would go on to lose in the semifinals to SBPI #2 Ohio State while UNC would go on to reach the Final Four in each of the next two seasons, winning their 5th national title just 2 years later.
#13: 2008 Kansas 427.7 [37-3] – the 5th Kansas team on the list was the best of the Bill Self era, and not coincidentally they won the national title. What has some irony to it is they were SBPI #2 that season, just behind another team listed below (UCLA); keep in mind as mentioned above 4 of the top 5 SBPI teams reached the Final Four in 2008, and the entire Final Four was comprised of #1 seeds as well. In the national semifinal Kansas destroyed SBPI #5 UNC 84-66 while in the other matchup SBPI #4 Memphis beat SBPI #1 UCLA by 15. It led to an epic championship game which featured a pair of big name coaches in Bill Self & John Calipari both seeking their first national championship. Of course this game will be remembered for Memphis’ struggles from the FT line late in regulation allowing the Jayhawks to come back from a 9 point deficit with 2:12 remaining to win by 7 in OT. Not only was it Self’s first (and only) national title but it was the first time Kansas hoisted the trophy since Danny Manning’s 1988 team.
#12: 2007 UCLA 428.5 [30-6] – the first of two Bruins’ teams in the Top 12 is the ’07 version that was SBPI #1 (was also the 2nd year of a 4 year run where the Bruins never finished outside the Top 6 in SBPI ’06-’09) yet only earned a #2 seed (Kansas was #1) but stayed out West. Playing in Sacramento then San Jose was perfect for the Bruins despite being jobbed with the seeds as they were able to handle SBPI #10 Kansas easily in the regional final sending UCLA to their 2nd straight Final Four. It was there they met defending national champion Florida, who had an SBPI of just #9 but a ton of experience & NBA talent on their roster. They dropped a 10pt decision there as Florida would go on to win their 2nd straight national title. UCLA would be back the following season – see below.
#11: 2014 Florida 432.0 [36-3] – amazingly this is just the 2nd Billy Donovan team that has landed inside the Top 100 of the last 12 seasons despite the fact UF has won 2 national titles, albeit in back to back seasons – and the fact they were SBPI ranked #8 & #9 those two seasons. Last year’s Gators team battled Arizona for the top spot most of the season, and pulled away late mostly following the injury to Arizona’s Brandon Ashley. Following 3 straight Elite 8 season’s this Gators team was able to secure the school’s first Final Four appearance since 2007 but were upended by eventual champion UConn in the national semifinals.
#10: 2010 West Virginia 434.0 [31-7] – the 2010 WVU team was SBPI #2 and leveraged a Big East Tournament championship into a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Mountaineers reached the Final Four for just the 2nd time in school history before bowing out to SBPI #1 Duke (see below for more on that team). This was also Bob Huggins’ first Final Four appearance since 1992 with Cincinnati & the Mountaineers have not been to the Sweet 16 since.
#9: 2008 UCLA 436.0 [35-4] – this was UCLA’s best team of the last 12 seasons & 9th best rating of any team during that time period. They were ranked SBPI #1 in 2008, earned a #1 seed but were upended vs. SBPI #4 Memphis (#26 of L12 years, see above). This Bruins team made its 3rd straight Final Four appearance (have not been back since), set the school record for wins, won the Pac 10 regular season & tournament championships and were led by F Kevin Love although he came up small in the Final Four scoring just 10 points in their loss to Memphis.
#8: 2011 Ohio State 438.9 [34-3] – OSU of 2011 is the first of just 3 teams in the Top 16 listed here that did not reach at least the Elite 8. This Buckeyes team was SBPI #1, earned a #1 seed & reached the Sweet 16 before falling to SBPI #4 Kentucky by just 2 points. Again, having a pair of Top 4 SBPI teams facing off in the Sweet 16 is far too early, and unfortunately for OSU that is how the cards fell in 2011. These Buckeyes started the season 24-0 before dropping their first game of the season at Wisconsin (SBPI #14) on February 12th. They bounced back beating Michigan State but lost their next road game, at Purdue (SBPI #2). They won the Big Ten regular season & tournament championships, and all 3 losses on the season came against SBPI Top 14 teams, with 2 of the 3 vs. Top 4 teams. This is the 2nd OSU team that is ranked inside the Top 8 of the L12 seasons, quite impressive; in addition although neither of those teams were able to win the title they both lost by just 2 points.
#7: 2009 West Virginia 445.2 [23-12] – WVU’s second Top 10 team was their ’09 squad which was SBPI #2 (see below for 2009’s #1 team) but only earned a #6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Despite being well under seeded WVU was not even able to escape the 1st round, falling to #11 seed Dayton who had an SBPI of #62, the lowest rated team to beat a Top 55 team from this list. What’s more they are also the only team inside that same Top 55 to lose in the 1st round – both points go back to #56 Villanova. These Mountaineers seem to be a clear outlier, mostly inflated by a Top 10 SOS however 6 of their 12 losses were by 6 points or less & their final one in the NCAA Tournament was by 8.
#6: 2006 Villanova 448.4 [28-5] – this is the top rated Jay Wright team AND the second best Big East team of the last 12 years – which was the Sr. season for the quad of recruits mentioned above. This Villanova team had the biggest margin between #1 & #2 in a single season as they would have been 6.5pt favorites over SBPI #2 Texas that season according to SBPI! 2006 Nova would tie UConn for the Big East regular season championship (both 3 full games ahead of the next team), reach the Elite 8 before falling to SBPI #8 Florida, who would go on to win the first of back to back championships that season.
#5: 2013 Louisville 453.3 [35-5] – starting our Top 5 of the last 12 seasons is ’13 Louisville, who was SBPI #1 that season and went on to win the national championship. Four of our top 5 teams here at least reached the Final Four, with two winning it all – see below for the other one! This was such a strong Cardinals team – they won both the Big East regular season & tournament titles (the final season of the true Big East) while winning their first four NCAA Tournament games by the following margins, starting with the 1st round: 31, 26, 8, 22 (blasting SBPI #3 Duke by 22 points in the regional final). In the Final Four the games got tighter, but this team was inspired by Kevin Ware, their guard who suffered the gruesome broken leg in the regional final the week before. They took down SBPI #12 Wichita State in the semifinals & SBPI #10 Michigan in the championship game, securing Rick Pitino’s first title since 1996 Kentucky, and Louisville’s first since Pervis Ellison’s 1986 team.
#4: 2004 Duke 454.0 [31-6] – amazingly (or maybe not so much considering it’s Duke AND they have a whopping 9 teams on our Top 100 list) Duke has 3 of the top 4 teams of the last 12 seasons – but only one (#1 below) actually won the national championship! This version won the ACC regular season, secured a #1 seed and reached the Final Four where they fell to #3 seed & SBPI #9 Georgia Tech by just 2 points. This was not an overly talented Duke team as they had just 2 draft picks (Deng 1st, Duhon 2nd) on the roster. Nevertheless they played well together as a team, and lost a tight one in the Final Four.
#3: 2012 Ohio State 456.2 [31-8] – the best of the 5 Ohio State teams in the Top 100 was the 2012 version (SBPI #1), who like #6 Villanova had a huge edge on the 2nd best team that season Kentucky, as much as a 6.5 point edge when talking ATS. But as we know games do not always play out to what a line projects to be – as teams can play better or worse on any given night – and unfortunately for the Buckeyes they reached the Final Four where they fell to SBPI #3 Kansas by just 2 points. This team was ranked in the Top 10 every week of the season, but left Buckeye nation looking for their first championship since 1960. OSU has finished 1, 1, 4, 7 in SBPI ranking the last four years (#7 last season) so there is plenty of hope that national title may be right around the corner.
#2: 2009 Duke 457.8 [30-7] – Coach K’s second best team in SBPI from the last 12 seasons was the 2009 version, who secured a #3 seed despite being SBPI #1 but took a 23 point beat down in Beantown during the Sweet 16 vs. SBPI #8 Villanova – the only team in the Top 5 to not reach the Final Four. These Blue Devils won the ACC Tournament & were led by Kyle Singler & Gerald Henderson among others. Duke was ranked inside the Top 9 all season but getting swept by North Carolina likely kept them off the top line – that UNC team would go on to win the national title. Duke would bounce back angry the following season – see below.
#1: 2010 Duke 466.3 [36-5] – the TOP TEAM OF THE LAST 12 SEASONS of college basketball is the 2010 Duke Blue Devils who rebounded from the disappointment of the 2009 season to hoist their only national championship during this time period. In the 2010 NCAA Tournament Duke faced some stiff competition too: 2nd round vs. SBPI #14 California, Sweet 16 vs. SBPI #6 Purdue, Elite 8 vs. SBPI #22 Baylor, Final Four vs. SBPI #2 West Virginia & Championship game vs. #11 Butler. That is four of their six games vs. Top 11 SBPI teams from 2010. This team also won the Preseason NIT, co-champions of the ACC regular season & winner of the ACC Tournament & were never ranked outside the Top 10 all season with much of the same roster as the 2009 team that is ranked #2 overall just above.
Now that we have counted these teams down let’s take a look at appearances by team in the Top 100, listed in parenthesis:
DUKE: (9) '04, '05, '07, '08, '09, '10, '11, '13, '14
NORTH CAROLINA (6) '04, '05, '07, '08, '09, '11
PITTSBURGH: (6) '03, '07, '08, '09, '11, '14
VILLANOVA: (6) '05, '06, '07, '09, '10, '14
KANSAS: (5) '03, '08, '10, '11, '12
KENTUCKY: (5) '03, '05, '11, '12, '14
OHIO STATE: (5) '07, '11, '12, '13, '14
WISCONSIN: (5) '04, '05, '08, '13, '14
ARIZONA: (4) '03, '06, '13, '14
LOUISVILLE: (4) '08, '09, '13, '14
MICHIGAN STATE: (4) '05, '09, '12, '13
TEXAS: (4) '03, '04, '06, '11
WEST VIRGINIA: (4) '08, '09, '10, '11
UCLA: (3) '07, '08, '09
CONNECTICUT: (2) '09, '11
FLORIDA: (2) '05, '14
MARQUETTE: (2) '08, '09
MEMPHIS: (2) '08, '09
OKLAHOMA STATE: (2 '04, '05
PURDUE: (2) '10, '11
SYRACUSE: (2) '12, '13
TENNESSEE: (2) '08, '14
CLEMSON: (1) '07
ILLINOIS: (1) '05
INDIANA: (1) '13
KANSAS STATE: (1 '10
LSU: (1) '06
MISSOURI: (1) '09
OKLAHOMA: (1) '03
SAN DIEGO STATE: (1) '11
STANFORD: (1) '08
TEXAS A&M: (1) '10
VIRGINIA: (1) '14
WAKE FOREST: (1) '04
WASHINGTON: (1) '09
XAVIER: (1) '10
In addition here is a breakdown by year of the Top 100 teams:
2003 - 6
2004 - 6
2005 - 9
2006 - 4
2007 - 7
2008 - 12
2009 - 13
2010 - 8
2011 - 11
2012 - 5
2013 - 8
2014 - 11
That covers the countdown of College Basketball’s Top 100 SBPI teams of the last dozen years. As mentioned above these rankings are adjusted for SOS & also calibrated across seasons so I could provide estimated betting lines on a hypothetical game between any teams over the last 12 seasons including all teams listed above.
Badgers top Big Ten pick, but usual suspects loom
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE
ROSEMONT, Ill. -- Wisconsin may be a unanimous pick to win the Big Ten basketball title but other usual suspects can't be overlooked.
The Badgers, who reached the Final Four in Dallas but lost to Kentucky in a thriller, were the top choice in a poll released Thursday at Big Ten media day.
Michigan State, the 2014 Big Ten tournament champion, and Ohio State were second and third, respectively, in Thursday's media survey.
But Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan shrugs off the attention while his players focus on the here and now.
"Most of (them) played in high schools where their teams were targeted, where their teams were marked," Ryan said. "So I think they're kind of used to that kind of attention to where it doesn't affect how hard they know they need to work."
Returning senior Frank Kaminsky was named preseason player of the year. He was also a unanimous preseason All-Big Ten pick. Junior forward Sam Dekker also landed on the first team.
Wisconsin went 30-8 last season and the Badgers were knocked out of the Big Ten tournament in semifinal play. They regrouped in the NCAA Tournament and reached the Final Four before a one-point loss to Kentucky.
Wisconsin's lone loss from that team was point guard Ben Brust, who owns the all-time 3-point record at the school.
"He stretched the defenses, he was a great rebounder for his size," Ryan said. "Nobody for his size rebounded the way he did. He gave us some dimensions that might be a little difficult to replace, but we've got some guys that are trying to do that right now."
Seven of Wisconsin's top eight scorers from last season are back. Other top returnees included backcourt duo of seniors Josh Gasser and Traevon Jackson and Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year Nigel Hayes.
Around the Big Ten
--The Iowa Hawkeyes suffered a late-season collapse with seven losses in their last eight games in 2013-14, closing 9-9 (sixth) in league play.
Scoring leader Roy Devyn Marble (17 points) departed for the NBA but Hawkeyes coach Fran McCaffery eyes better outcomes this time with a group led by senior forward Aaron White, the team's No. 2 scorer (12.8 points) and top rebounder.
"Well, the leadership and talent, obviously it shifts to Aaron White," McCaffery said. "It's Aaron White's team. But again, he's got two other seniors and four juniors all of whom played a lot, and they're all good people and they're all good players."
Iowa, with three starters back from an NCAA Tournament team, will also be deep with seven upperclassmen with major minutes last year and 10 letter winners.
White leads the league among active rebounders with 653 and is the top returnee in field goal percentage (.584 percent).
There's more than basketball on McCaffrey's mind these days as his 14-year-old son, Patrick, continues to recover from surgery and treatment for thyroid cancer.
"We were very fortunate when we found it," said McCaffery said on Thursday. "That's the important thing no matter what age you are. The treatment's going well."
McCaffery lost both parents to cancer and is active in Coaches vs. Cancer fundraising.
--The Golden Gophers hope to take another step forward after a National Invitation Tournament championship in head coach Richard Pitino's debut season at Minnesota.
Minnesota and Big Ten honorable mention guard Andre Hollins (13.6 points) are projected in the middle of the Big Ten pack to start the new season.
"The difference between this year and last year is our newcomers fit the way that we want to play a lot more so than maybe last year, and I think that will help with our defense," Pitino said. "It'll help with our press, all those little things that we're trying to do when building kind of the brand that we want to play."
First up for Pitino is a matchup against his dad, Louisville's Rick Pitino. The coaches chat freely about their teams but phone calls will grow more guarded as a Nov. 14 clash in Puerto Rico nears, the second all-time meeting between father and son.
"It's weird because we're so invested in each other's programs," said Richard Pitino on Thursday. "We talk daily and we're both kind of waiting to start hiding information from each other. I see it coming. I'm glad we're playing early. We can play, we can move on and start rooting for each other again."
Pitino, Sr. claimed a 79-55 victory in 2012 when his son coached at Florida International.
--Michigan State, the reigning Big Ten tournament champions (29-9), welcome back starters Branden Dawson and Denzel Valentine from a team that reached the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight last season.
Add sixth man Travis Trice as the new starting point guard and the Spartans have the makings of another top conference contender.
"I kind of like this team," said Spartans coach Tom Izzo, entering his 20th season. "I think it's a team with the same kind of passion we had last year, the same kind of camaraderie, but a little better leadership. Last year it wasn't a strength of our team. It wasn't necessarily a weakness, but we didn't have quite the leadership that I think we have with Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine."
The Spartans were picked second behind Wisconsin in a preseason media survey.
--Last year's Big Ten regular season champ has a first-team preseason pick in Caris LeVert but Michigan was not voted among the top three teams in a Big Ten preseason poll released on Thursday.
LeVert averaged 12.9 points and 4.3 rebounds last year for a 28-9 team.
"You never know, but he was in it a bit last year," Michigan coach John Beilein said. "There were games when we went to him because people were doing things with Nik (Stauskas), with Glenn (Robinson III), with Jordan Morgan. So we just went with him. I love his personality because he doesn't let things bother him much. So I don't think he gets too excited or too worried about these situations."
Michigan picked up 10 extra practice days thanks to an offseason trip to Italy, offering new players some valuable time.
"You have a better evaluation of your team, and now your preseason practices should be more on point than they normally would be because we have information that we wouldn't have until two or three weeks into the season," Beilein said.
--Penn State is no longer the Big Ten's lone eastern outpost.
The addition of Maryland and Rutgers creates the makings of an East Coast rivalry for the formerly Midwest-based conference.
"It's great for recruiting, it's great for the current players because their families know that they cannot only come to Penn State, but now they can go up 95 and go to Rutgers and down 95 and go to Maryland," Nittany Lions coach Patrick Chambers said. "I think it's a win-win. A lot of people thought that we were in the Midwest."
Penn State finished 6-12 and tied for 10th with Northwestern in last year's regular season standings.
Guard D.J. Newbill, a second-team All-Big Ten pick, is back after finishing second in league scoring with a 17.1-point average. Forward Ross Travis brings in a 7.0-rebound average, fourth in the league last year.
"I have a good mixture of veterans and youth," Chambers said. "I'm seeing that in practice. Obviously very good leader in D.J. Newbill (and) Ross Travis is coming along terrific helping him in his leadership. … They've taken ownership of this team, and I'm noticing things in the locker room, in practice, in the weight room."
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE
ROSEMONT, Ill. -- Wisconsin may be a unanimous pick to win the Big Ten basketball title but other usual suspects can't be overlooked.
The Badgers, who reached the Final Four in Dallas but lost to Kentucky in a thriller, were the top choice in a poll released Thursday at Big Ten media day.
Michigan State, the 2014 Big Ten tournament champion, and Ohio State were second and third, respectively, in Thursday's media survey.
But Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan shrugs off the attention while his players focus on the here and now.
"Most of (them) played in high schools where their teams were targeted, where their teams were marked," Ryan said. "So I think they're kind of used to that kind of attention to where it doesn't affect how hard they know they need to work."
Returning senior Frank Kaminsky was named preseason player of the year. He was also a unanimous preseason All-Big Ten pick. Junior forward Sam Dekker also landed on the first team.
Wisconsin went 30-8 last season and the Badgers were knocked out of the Big Ten tournament in semifinal play. They regrouped in the NCAA Tournament and reached the Final Four before a one-point loss to Kentucky.
Wisconsin's lone loss from that team was point guard Ben Brust, who owns the all-time 3-point record at the school.
"He stretched the defenses, he was a great rebounder for his size," Ryan said. "Nobody for his size rebounded the way he did. He gave us some dimensions that might be a little difficult to replace, but we've got some guys that are trying to do that right now."
Seven of Wisconsin's top eight scorers from last season are back. Other top returnees included backcourt duo of seniors Josh Gasser and Traevon Jackson and Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year Nigel Hayes.
Around the Big Ten
--The Iowa Hawkeyes suffered a late-season collapse with seven losses in their last eight games in 2013-14, closing 9-9 (sixth) in league play.
Scoring leader Roy Devyn Marble (17 points) departed for the NBA but Hawkeyes coach Fran McCaffery eyes better outcomes this time with a group led by senior forward Aaron White, the team's No. 2 scorer (12.8 points) and top rebounder.
"Well, the leadership and talent, obviously it shifts to Aaron White," McCaffery said. "It's Aaron White's team. But again, he's got two other seniors and four juniors all of whom played a lot, and they're all good people and they're all good players."
Iowa, with three starters back from an NCAA Tournament team, will also be deep with seven upperclassmen with major minutes last year and 10 letter winners.
White leads the league among active rebounders with 653 and is the top returnee in field goal percentage (.584 percent).
There's more than basketball on McCaffrey's mind these days as his 14-year-old son, Patrick, continues to recover from surgery and treatment for thyroid cancer.
"We were very fortunate when we found it," said McCaffery said on Thursday. "That's the important thing no matter what age you are. The treatment's going well."
McCaffery lost both parents to cancer and is active in Coaches vs. Cancer fundraising.
--The Golden Gophers hope to take another step forward after a National Invitation Tournament championship in head coach Richard Pitino's debut season at Minnesota.
Minnesota and Big Ten honorable mention guard Andre Hollins (13.6 points) are projected in the middle of the Big Ten pack to start the new season.
"The difference between this year and last year is our newcomers fit the way that we want to play a lot more so than maybe last year, and I think that will help with our defense," Pitino said. "It'll help with our press, all those little things that we're trying to do when building kind of the brand that we want to play."
First up for Pitino is a matchup against his dad, Louisville's Rick Pitino. The coaches chat freely about their teams but phone calls will grow more guarded as a Nov. 14 clash in Puerto Rico nears, the second all-time meeting between father and son.
"It's weird because we're so invested in each other's programs," said Richard Pitino on Thursday. "We talk daily and we're both kind of waiting to start hiding information from each other. I see it coming. I'm glad we're playing early. We can play, we can move on and start rooting for each other again."
Pitino, Sr. claimed a 79-55 victory in 2012 when his son coached at Florida International.
--Michigan State, the reigning Big Ten tournament champions (29-9), welcome back starters Branden Dawson and Denzel Valentine from a team that reached the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight last season.
Add sixth man Travis Trice as the new starting point guard and the Spartans have the makings of another top conference contender.
"I kind of like this team," said Spartans coach Tom Izzo, entering his 20th season. "I think it's a team with the same kind of passion we had last year, the same kind of camaraderie, but a little better leadership. Last year it wasn't a strength of our team. It wasn't necessarily a weakness, but we didn't have quite the leadership that I think we have with Travis Trice and Denzel Valentine."
The Spartans were picked second behind Wisconsin in a preseason media survey.
--Last year's Big Ten regular season champ has a first-team preseason pick in Caris LeVert but Michigan was not voted among the top three teams in a Big Ten preseason poll released on Thursday.
LeVert averaged 12.9 points and 4.3 rebounds last year for a 28-9 team.
"You never know, but he was in it a bit last year," Michigan coach John Beilein said. "There were games when we went to him because people were doing things with Nik (Stauskas), with Glenn (Robinson III), with Jordan Morgan. So we just went with him. I love his personality because he doesn't let things bother him much. So I don't think he gets too excited or too worried about these situations."
Michigan picked up 10 extra practice days thanks to an offseason trip to Italy, offering new players some valuable time.
"You have a better evaluation of your team, and now your preseason practices should be more on point than they normally would be because we have information that we wouldn't have until two or three weeks into the season," Beilein said.
--Penn State is no longer the Big Ten's lone eastern outpost.
The addition of Maryland and Rutgers creates the makings of an East Coast rivalry for the formerly Midwest-based conference.
"It's great for recruiting, it's great for the current players because their families know that they cannot only come to Penn State, but now they can go up 95 and go to Rutgers and down 95 and go to Maryland," Nittany Lions coach Patrick Chambers said. "I think it's a win-win. A lot of people thought that we were in the Midwest."
Penn State finished 6-12 and tied for 10th with Northwestern in last year's regular season standings.
Guard D.J. Newbill, a second-team All-Big Ten pick, is back after finishing second in league scoring with a 17.1-point average. Forward Ross Travis brings in a 7.0-rebound average, fourth in the league last year.
"I have a good mixture of veterans and youth," Chambers said. "I'm seeing that in practice. Obviously very good leader in D.J. Newbill (and) Ross Travis is coming along terrific helping him in his leadership. … They've taken ownership of this team, and I'm noticing things in the locker room, in practice, in the weight room."
Kentucky No.1 again, but intriguing odds in Top 25
By JUSTIN HARTLING
For the second year in a row, the Kentucky Wildcats are the preseason No.1 in the Coaches Poll. Kentucky nabbed 24 of the 32 first place votes after dropping the national championship game just six months ago to UConn.
The Coaches Poll agrees with the odds as Kentucky is 5/2 to win the national championship in Indianapolis according to the Westgate LV Superbook. It comes to no surprise that No.2 Arizona and No.3 Duke are both coming in closely behind Kentucky at 8/1.
Despite No.10 Texas showing that they have an extremely versatile tea that has the size to compete with anyone last season, they are currently sitting at 30/1. The Longhorns are credible longshots as they have the second biggest odds against of any team in the top 15.
The only team to have longer odds in the top 15 than the Longhorns is UConn at 75/1. The Huskies are likely getting such long odds due to the fact that star PG Shabazz Napier has now moved on to the NBA.
Here is a complete list of odds for the Coaches Poll per Westgate LV Superbooks:
1) Kentucky 5/2
2) Arizona 8/1
3) Duke 8/1
4) Wisconsin 10/1
5) Kansas 15/1
6) North Carolina 12/1
7) Florida 15/1
8) Virginia 25/1
9) Louisville 25/1
10) Texas 30/1
11) Wichita State 25/1
12) Villanova 25/1
13) Gonzaga 20/1
14) Iowa State 30/1
15) Connecticut 75/1
16) Virginia Commonwealth 40/1
17) San Diego State 40/1
18) Michigan State 50/1
19) Oklahoma 60/1
20) Ohio State 50/1
21) Nebraska 100/1
22) SMU 75/1
23) Michigan 40/1
24) Syracuse 50/1
25) Iowa 100/1
By JUSTIN HARTLING
For the second year in a row, the Kentucky Wildcats are the preseason No.1 in the Coaches Poll. Kentucky nabbed 24 of the 32 first place votes after dropping the national championship game just six months ago to UConn.
The Coaches Poll agrees with the odds as Kentucky is 5/2 to win the national championship in Indianapolis according to the Westgate LV Superbook. It comes to no surprise that No.2 Arizona and No.3 Duke are both coming in closely behind Kentucky at 8/1.
Despite No.10 Texas showing that they have an extremely versatile tea that has the size to compete with anyone last season, they are currently sitting at 30/1. The Longhorns are credible longshots as they have the second biggest odds against of any team in the top 15.
The only team to have longer odds in the top 15 than the Longhorns is UConn at 75/1. The Huskies are likely getting such long odds due to the fact that star PG Shabazz Napier has now moved on to the NBA.
Here is a complete list of odds for the Coaches Poll per Westgate LV Superbooks:
1) Kentucky 5/2
2) Arizona 8/1
3) Duke 8/1
4) Wisconsin 10/1
5) Kansas 15/1
6) North Carolina 12/1
7) Florida 15/1
8) Virginia 25/1
9) Louisville 25/1
10) Texas 30/1
11) Wichita State 25/1
12) Villanova 25/1
13) Gonzaga 20/1
14) Iowa State 30/1
15) Connecticut 75/1
16) Virginia Commonwealth 40/1
17) San Diego State 40/1
18) Michigan State 50/1
19) Oklahoma 60/1
20) Ohio State 50/1
21) Nebraska 100/1
22) SMU 75/1
23) Michigan 40/1
24) Syracuse 50/1
25) Iowa 100/1
Four college hoops teams that could make a mint next March
By JASON LOGAN
The University of Connecticut is still digging itself out of a double dumping of confetti but college hoops bettors already have their sights set on next year’s NCAA tournament.
The LVH Superbook in Las Vegas posted their futures odds on the 2014-15 NCAA tournament, setting Arizona (+600), Duke (+700), Kentucky (+1,200), Kansas (+1,200) and Wisconsin (+1,200) as the front runners to win the national title.
However, if you witnessed UConn’s improbable run to the championship, you know there's value to be had behind the favorites. The Huskies opened at 60/1 last April and were as high as 100/1 in Nevada on Selection Sunday.
Here are four programs that could show similar profits when the madness kicks off next March:
Villanova Wildcats (+2,500)
Villanova did better than expected in the diluted Big East - 22-10 ATS on the year - and will bring back four of its starters as well as top reserve Josh Hart and some highly-touted recruits to Philadelphia. Jay Wright’s program was in the wrong place at the wrong time when it played a streaking UConn in the NCAA tournament and should earn another solid seeding next spring.
Gonzaga Bulldogs (+5,000)
Will next year finally be the season in which a mid-major program wins the NCAA tournament? If so, it would only seem right that Gonzaga be that mid major. There’s nothing minor about the talent level returning to Spokane, with 7-footer Przemek Karnowski, Kevin Pangos, and Gary Bell Jr. expected back. Gonzaga also scored UK transfer Kyle Wiltjer – a 6-foot-10 forward who earned the SEC's Sixth Man of the Year honor in 2012-13.
Texas Longhorns (+5,000)
The Longhorns turned heads in the Big 12 this season with their up-and-down style and long, athletic roster. Texas is expected to field a similar look next year with all five starters pegged to return. Rick Barnes is coming off perhaps his best year as a coach and has an extremely versatile team that can matchup with nearly any size or style. The Horns also improved their perimeter shooting by adding top recruit Jordan Barnett.
Michigan Wolverines (+3,000)
Taking a flyer on the Wolverines is best done sooner rather than later. Star guard Nik Stauskas is likely going pro and there are big questions surrounding his backcourt running mate Glenn Robinson III and stud forward Mitch McGary – all of which are reviewing their NBA potential. But if all three stay – or even just two of the three – Michigan’s futures odds will be on par with Kentucky and Kansas.
By JASON LOGAN
The University of Connecticut is still digging itself out of a double dumping of confetti but college hoops bettors already have their sights set on next year’s NCAA tournament.
The LVH Superbook in Las Vegas posted their futures odds on the 2014-15 NCAA tournament, setting Arizona (+600), Duke (+700), Kentucky (+1,200), Kansas (+1,200) and Wisconsin (+1,200) as the front runners to win the national title.
However, if you witnessed UConn’s improbable run to the championship, you know there's value to be had behind the favorites. The Huskies opened at 60/1 last April and were as high as 100/1 in Nevada on Selection Sunday.
Here are four programs that could show similar profits when the madness kicks off next March:
Villanova Wildcats (+2,500)
Villanova did better than expected in the diluted Big East - 22-10 ATS on the year - and will bring back four of its starters as well as top reserve Josh Hart and some highly-touted recruits to Philadelphia. Jay Wright’s program was in the wrong place at the wrong time when it played a streaking UConn in the NCAA tournament and should earn another solid seeding next spring.
Gonzaga Bulldogs (+5,000)
Will next year finally be the season in which a mid-major program wins the NCAA tournament? If so, it would only seem right that Gonzaga be that mid major. There’s nothing minor about the talent level returning to Spokane, with 7-footer Przemek Karnowski, Kevin Pangos, and Gary Bell Jr. expected back. Gonzaga also scored UK transfer Kyle Wiltjer – a 6-foot-10 forward who earned the SEC's Sixth Man of the Year honor in 2012-13.
Texas Longhorns (+5,000)
The Longhorns turned heads in the Big 12 this season with their up-and-down style and long, athletic roster. Texas is expected to field a similar look next year with all five starters pegged to return. Rick Barnes is coming off perhaps his best year as a coach and has an extremely versatile team that can matchup with nearly any size or style. The Horns also improved their perimeter shooting by adding top recruit Jordan Barnett.
Michigan Wolverines (+3,000)
Taking a flyer on the Wolverines is best done sooner rather than later. Star guard Nik Stauskas is likely going pro and there are big questions surrounding his backcourt running mate Glenn Robinson III and stud forward Mitch McGary – all of which are reviewing their NBA potential. But if all three stay – or even just two of the three – Michigan’s futures odds will be on par with Kentucky and Kansas.
Phill's Forcast
Tulsa has won 4 str in the series. The L/gm was for the ‘12 CUSA Title. UCF led 27-21 into the 4Q. UT tied the gm on a 54 yd PR td (inadvertent whistle as UCF
players stopped). In OT, UCF had a fg blk’d (UT td 5pl later). The Knights are off a
shocking loss to UConn but they do have extra time to prep for this one off a bye
and only have SMU on deck. LW the Golden Hurricane led SMU 35-13 at one point,
but “only” won 38-28. Now they have to travel on a short week, but despite their
poor record, they are a solid +23 ypg in AAC play. UCF is +60 ypg in AAC and they
need a win to stay in the AAC race. I like their situational edge and will agree with
my computer calling for a comfortable win.
UCF 40 TULSA 20
You are wrong. I have been flowing Phil. for 35yrs. One of the few honest out there...
I am a elderly person and have followed Phil Steele and NC since they started.
I maintained threads about Phl Steel and NC for eight or nine years at a forum no longer around
My conclusions were and are that they are among the sneakiest and most deceptive services out there both with their record keeping and with their advertising-very little honesty here.
They lie mostly with omissions, spin and simply bragging about what wins, not loses in their zillion different types of picks.
You must have been following different Phil Steele/NC from the ones I have followed.
They are 100% honest. I've followed them for 20 years. They do not lie.
What they do though is sly marketing.....in essence its a smart business practice.
One week they may go 4-0, so they post 4-0 the next week.
If they go 0-4, they will say something the next week like 58% over the last 6 weeks.
One thing I didnt like about them is that they have too many kinds of plays,.......late phones, marquees, ps, pp, etc...
Straight up honest company though IMO.
What they do though is sly marketing.....in essence its a smart business practice.
One week they may go 4-0, so they post 4-0 the next week.
If they go 0-4, they will say something the next week like 58% over the last 6 weeks.
One thing I didnt like about them is that they have too many kinds of plays,.......late phones, marquees, ps, pp, etc...
Straight up honest company though IMO.
