Friday 10/9/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Post your request, Comments or concerns here.
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[superbeets]

Euro Championships TODAY 19:45

England

v

Estonia

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
ITV		1/7	8	25	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN ENGLAND	RECENT FORM
HWADADAWAWHW​ Most recent​	3 - 0	ALHDAWHWHWAL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Estonia have failed to score in any of their last five competitive away games

EXPERT VERDICT: England have wrapped up qualification for Euro 2016 but are unlikely to take their foot off the pedal at Wembley. Opponents Estonia don't have much in the way of attacking flair and the Three Lions should land a routine victory as they close in on a perfect campaign.

RECOMMENDATION: England to win 3-0
1

 

[superbeets]

Euro Championships Sa 10Oct 19:45

Bosnia-Hz.

v

Wales

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS2		19/20	13/5	10/3	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSIN BOSNIA-HZ.	RECENT FORM
ALAWADHWALHW​ Most recent​	Unknown	HWADAWHWAWHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Wales are unbeaten in ten competitive matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Wales need just one more point to make sure of a Euro 2016 berth and could earn it with a draw against Bosnia. Wales have been defending superbly and their goals conceded tally of two is the second-lowest of the 48 teams in the qualification process which suggests the visitors can nullify Bosnia.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1

 

[superbeets]

League Two Su 11Oct 12:15

Exeter

v

Stevenage

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1		Evs	13/5	3	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT EXETER	RECENT FORM
HWALHLAWADAL​ Most recent​	0 - 0 1 - 1 4 - 0 4 - 0	HDALALHLHLHL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Stevenage have conceded ten goals in five league away matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Exeter’s decent home performances have propelled them into a handy position after the first portion of the season. Bookmakers still think the Grecians will end up in mid-table, but they will fancy their chances against a Stevenage side who haven’t won on the road since mid-April.

RECOMMENDATION: Exeter
2

 

[superbeets]

League Two Su 11Oct 14:30

Notts Co

v

Plymouth

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
SS1		8/5	5/2	9/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT NOTTS CO	RECENT FORM
ALHWHWADALAL​ Most recent​	2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 2 2 - 1	AWHDADHWHWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Plymouth have scored in all bar one of their league games this season

EXPERT VERDICT: Notts County made 18 permanent new signings after relegation last season, which could be a mitigating factor behind their slow start to this campaign. However, they’ve begun to find their feet, particularly at home, and County carry enough of a threat to trouble promotion hopefuls Plymouth.

RECOMMENDATION: Both teams to score
2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DAVE COKIN

Series - LA Dodgers -185

The 2015 Mets are a terrific story. This was a team that most felt might be ready to make a run at getting to .500. But the playoffs? That was a pipe dream for 2015, as the consensus was there wasn’t enough offense, and the staff was too inexperienced to contend this soon.

That was obviously not the case as the Mets are NL East division champs and it’s all gravy at this point. I don’t think there’s even the slightest amount of real pressure here. The Mets are perceived as overachievers and I actually think that’s part of the reason they’ve done this well. Low expectations often yield surprising results and if the Mets lose to the high expectation Dodgers, there shouldn’t be many complaints.

As for the Dodgers, they have the weight of being a season-long favorite that has to make a serious post-season run or the season will be regarded as a total failure. Whether or not they get as far as they’re built to remains to be seen. But I like LA to advance here.

The primary reasons for my confidence are the awesome 1-2 punch at the top of the Dodgers rotation. Clayton Kershaw has been utterly dominant and Zack Greinke is not far behind, and that’s if he’s trailing Kershaw at all. Kershaw in particular is as go with as it gets right now. Yes, there’s the memory of the 2014 playoffs, which ended up being a bit of a nightmare. But I can’t see that being a roadblock to backing Kershaw here, and in fact I expect it to be a motivator for the amazing southpaw.

The Dodgers are rightfully going to be priced as substantial chalk in this series. That might scare some off, but not me. As exciting as things are for the Mets with their brilliant arsenal of young arms and an improved offense since the arrival of Yoenis Cespedes, this is a still a team with one major flaw. The Mets have been absolutely horrendous against good teams this season. I don’t mean not so good, I mean staggeringly awful. That’s a huge key to me. The Mets did a great job of taking care of business against teams at their own level or below. When facing off against winning teams, they lost continuously.

No question, I’m going to need that there are no slip-ups in the games Kershaw and Greinke start as the rest of the LA rotation is very ordinary. But I’ll take my chances with that top two and in tandem with the inability of the Mets to beat the better teams, I’ll be laying the price with the Dodgers to win this series.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets +182 over LOS ANGELES

This one really doesn’t need a lot of explanation. When you wager on the Dodgers with Clayton Kershaw going you are going to pay a rather large premium to do so. We can certainly understand why Kershaw is so attractive, as he may be the best pitcher on the planet but he has some post-season ghosts to deal with and if nothing else, it has to at least be on his mind. In Kershaw’s last four playoff starts, he is 0-4 with a 7.15 ERA. Kershaw has started 11 post-season games and the Dodgers have won three of them. Those playoff wins have just been elusive.

More than that, however, is the price being offered on Jacob deGrom. Rarely is a price like this offered on a pitcher of his caliber. deGrom was an integral part in NYM's playoff run, as he's pushed the envelope even further from his 2014 breakout season. deGrom has outpaced 2014's numbers in every roto category and should he be considered among the elite. deGrom's been able to hold his K-per-inning pace in his sophomore season. An elite swing and miss rate and an electric fastball say this will be the norm. His elite 3.04 xERA suggests we have little to worry about. His pinpoint control has taken a step up from 2014, and a corresponding surge in his first-pitch strike rate supports these gains. deGrom, like Kershaw is the straight goods. Remember, the Dodgers have to score runs to win and two may not be enough. Furthermore, if it comes down to the bullpens, a distinct possibility indeed, that take-back suddenly becomes even sweeter. Huge overlay.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Friday, Oct. 9, 2015

(905) CHICAGO CUBS VS (906) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Friday, October 9, 2015 is in the MLB contest between the Cubs and the Cardinals. A pair of strong arms on the mound in St. Louis, the latter a terrific defensive team in the field. St. Louis is 5-1 under the total in playoff home games and 9-4-2 under the total following an off day. The Cardinals offense is bottom 10 and they face Chicago ace lefty Jon Lester. The Under is 11-1-1 in Lester's last 13 starts vs. a team with a winning record, plus 11-4 under the total in the Cubs last 15 games following an off day. They face a strong veteran arm in John Lackey and the under is 9-1-1 in the Cubs last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter. And when these foes clash the Under is 4-0 in Lackey's last 4 starts vs. the Cubs, while Lester is 3-1-1 under against the Cards. Play Cubs/Cards under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS

S. Miss
Virginia Tech
Stl Cardinals

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday, October 9

NCAAF Long Sheet



SOUTHERN MISS (3 - 2) at MARSHALL (4 - 1) - 10/9/2015, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MARSHALL is 2-0 against the spread versus SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
MARSHALL is 2-0 straight up against SOUTHERN MISS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NC STATE (4 - 1) at VIRGINIA TECH (2 - 3) - 10/9/2015, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NC STATE is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday, October 9

Trend Report


7:00 PM
SOUTHERN MISS vs. MARSHALL
Southern Miss is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Southern Miss's last 5 games on the road
Marshall is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games
Marshall is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games at home

8:00 PM
NORTH CAROLINA STATE vs. VIRGINIA TECH
North Carolina State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
North Carolina State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Virginia Tech's last 5 games
Virginia Tech is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Southern Miss @ Marshall

Game 307-308
October 9, 2015 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Southern Miss
80.865
Marshall
82.807
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Marshall
by 2
62
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Marshall
by 5 1/2
58 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Southern Miss
(+5 1/2); Over

NC State @ Virginia Tech

Game 309-310
October 9, 2015 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NC State
93.013
Virginia Tech
90.512
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NC State
by 2 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Virginia Tech
by 1
51
Dunkel Pick:
NC State
(+1); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Short Sheet

Friday - Oct, 9

Southern Miss at Marshall, 7:00 ET
S Miss: 11-1 ATS after gaining 475 or more total yards/game over last 3 games
Marshall: 16-30 ATS after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers

North Carolina State at Virginia Tech, 8:00 ET
N Carolina St: 8-19 ATS in road games after having won 3 out of their last 4
Virginia Tech: 13-4 ATS after gaining 225 or less total yards in their previous game

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's games
Marshall won last four games with Southern Miss, scoring 59+ points in three of the four; favorites covered six of last nine series games. Herd is 10-3 in last 13 games as home favorite; they allowed 229-247 rushing yards in two losses this year, 154.7 ypg in three wins. USM is 8-7 as a road underdog under Monken; they allowed 34+ points in three of four games vs I-A foes this year- they scored 49+ points in all three wins.

Virginia Tech is 1-3 vs I-A teams this year, losing last two games at ECU and to Pitt at home; Hokies won three of last four games with NC State; the last one was in 2010. Tech QB Brewer is gametime decision after he missed couple of games with injury. Wolfpack played four stiffs, then lost at home to Louisville in rain last week; State is 6-1 vs spread in last seven road games; they're 14-11-1 as road underdogs since 2008.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week


FRIDAY, OCT. 9
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

SOUTHERN MISS at MARSHALL
USM 5-0 vs. line in 2015. Herd just 4-6 last nine on board.
USM, based on recent trends.



NC STATE at VIRGINIA TECH
Pack 7-1 vs. line last 8 and also 7-1 vs. line away from Raleigh since 2014. Beamer just 9-17-1 vs. spread since 2011 at home, 20-37-1 last 58 on board since late 2010.
NCS, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Top Action


NC STATE WOLFPACK (4-1) at VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (2-3)

Sportsbook.ag Line: Even, Total: 51

ACC foes looking to bounce back from close losses will square off Friday in Blacksburg when NC State visits Virginia Tech.

The Wolfpack suffered their first loss of the season (4-1 SU and ATS) last week when they fell 20-13 at home to 2.5-point underdog Louisville. The Hokies (2-3 SU and ATS) have dropped two straight games by a touchdown or less, falling 35-28 at East Carolina before Pittsburgh beat them at home by a 17-13 score on Saturday. Despite these schools playing in the same conference, they haven't met since 2010 when Virginia Tech won 41-30 at NC State.

The most recent meeting in Blacksburg was a 38-10 drubbing by the Hokies in 2009. There are some telling trends for the Wolfpack in this contest, as good offensive road teams (31+ PPG) where the line is +3 to -3 off 1 or more straight Unders are 61-23 ATS (73%) over the past five seasons, while home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after playing a game at home are 60-114 ATS (34%) in this same timeframe. However, Virginia Tech is an impressive 18-4 ATS (82%) after gaining 3.75 or fewer yards per play in its previous game since 1992, and is 18-8 ATS (69%) after 2+ straight SU losses in this same timeframe.

NC State's running game could suffer a bit with three players questionable with injuries -- RB Johnny Frasier (ankle), G Alex Barr (ankle) and OL Bryce Kennedy (concussion). The Hokies might get back top QB Michael Brewer (collarbone), who will likely be a game-time decision. But they will definitely not have RB Marshawn Williams, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week, and DL Corey Marshall (hamstring) is questionable for Friday.

NC State's offense scored at least 35 points in each of its first four games, but managed only 13 points against Louisville last week. The ground game was particularly awful (45 yards on 30 carries), but the team's 183 passing yards was nothing to write home about either. Senior QB Jacoby Brissett has yet to throw for even 220 yards in a game this season, but he has been very efficient with a 73% completion rate (8.1 YPA), 7 TD and 0 INT. This accuracy has helped move the chains and give his team a robust 36:48 average time of possession. The former Florida transfer has taken only 10 sacks in five games after being dropped 29 times last year. Brissett continues to rely heavily on FB/TE Jaylen Samuels whose four receiving touchdowns have all come in the past three contests. The 5-foot-11, 236-pound sophomore has a team-high 25 receptions for 300 yards.

The air attack needs to get WR Jumichael Ramos (15 rec, 223 yds, 1 TD) going, as he has just two receptions in the past two weeks after starting the year with 13 grabs in three games. The Wolfpack rushing attack also needs junior RB Matthew Dayes to bounce back from a season low 3.6 YPC last game. But Dayes is still averaging 5.5 YPC this season with 680 total yards (522 rush, 158 rec).

The NC State defense gave up a meager total of 198 rushing yards on 2.1 YPC in the first four games combined (50 YPG), but surrendered 203 yards (4.5 YPC) on the ground in last week's loss to Louisville. The Wolfpack passing defense has been consistently great all season in limiting opposing passers to a 46% completion rate and 146 YPG (5.7 YPA). They have done so despite forcing only five turnovers, including three games with zero takeaways. But the secondary will certainly be tested if the Hokies top quarterback returns to the field on Friday.

Virginia Tech has certainly missed QB Michael Brewer (2,692 pass yards, 18 TD last year) who broke his collarbone in the season-opening loss to Ohio State. Backup QB Brenden Motley completed only 9-of-20 passes for 91 yards, 1 TD and 3 INT in last Saturday's defeat, which was quite a drop-off from his 366 total yards and 2 TD he produced the week before at East Carolina. Whoever is under center will continue to heavily target 6-foot-2 sophomore WR Isaiah Ford who leads the team with 24 catches for 482 yards and 3 TD. But Ford was held to only two receptions last week and hasn't found the end zone in three straight games.

The Hokies rushing attack has fallen off in each of the past four games from 299 versus Furman, 238 at Purdue, 158 at East Carolina and a pathetic nine yards on 33 carries last week. Freshman RB Travon McMillian leads the team with 223 rushing yards (7.0 YPC), but has yet to carry the ball 10 times in a game this year. The Hokies defense has also struggled stopping the run in 2015 with 198 YPG on 5.0 YPC. But the pass defense has made up for it with holding opposing quarterbacks to a 47% completion rate and 158 YPG (6.9 YPA). Virginia Tech has also done a great job of forcing mistakes with 12 takeaways in five games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Friday's Tip Sheet


Southern Miss at Marshall

As of early Thursday, most betting shops had Marshall (4-1 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) installed as a five-point favorite with the total in the 56-57 range. The Golden Eagles were +180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).

Southern Miss is one of just two teams in the country sporting a perfect 5-0 ATS record. To be clear, there's also Navy (4-0 ATS) and Toledo (3-0-1), both of whom are unscathed for our purposes.

Doc Holliday's sixth team at Marshall has won three in a row, including last week's 27-7 win over Old Dominion as a 16.5-point home 'chalk.' The 34 combined points stayed 'under' the 54-point total. True freshman QB Chase Litton completed 21-of-35 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. With star RB Devon Johnson out of the lineup with an injury, sophomore RB Tony Pittman rushed 32 times for 127 yards and one TD.

Johnson is 'questionable' vs. Southern Miss due to a back injury. He rushed for 1,767 yards and 17 touchdowns while averaging 8.6 yards per carry last season. To date this year, Johnson has run for 390 yards and three TDs while averaging 6.6 YPC.

Litton has an 8/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio since taking over as the starting QB in the last three games. Ryan Yurachek has been Litton's favorite target, hauling in 20 receptions for 202 yards and three TDs.

Southern Miss (3-2 SU, 5-0 ATS) won its C-USA opener last weekend by blasting North Texas by a 49-14 count as a 14.5-point home 'chalk.' Nick Mullens stole the show by connecting on 27-of-36 passes for 325 yards and four TDs without an interception. Mullens also ran twice for 21 yards and another score. Justice Hayes, a transfer from Michigan, rushed for 86 yards and one TD on 16 carries, while Ito Smith produced 84 rushing yards and one TD on nine totes. WR Michael Thomas made seven catches for 155 yards and three TDs, while Smith had seven receptions for 85 yards.

Mullens is enjoying a stellar junior campaign to date, connecting on 66.0 percent of his throws for 1,691 yards with a 14/3 TD-INT ratio. Casey Martin has a team-high 29 receptions for 339 yards and five TDs, while Thomas has 18 grabs for 336 yards and three TDs.

Todd Monken's squad is using a trio of RBs with plenty of effectiveness. Jalen Richard has run fora team-best 365 yards and five TDs while averaging 5.5 YPC. Smith has run 45 times for 365 yards and three TDs for an eye-opening 8.1 YPC average. Hayes has run for 163 yards and a pair of scores.

Southern Miss owns an 8-7 spread record in 15 games as a road underdog on Monken's watch, going 2-0 ATS in a pair of such spots this season.

Marshall has won four in a row in this rivalry both SU and ATS, including last year's 63-17 shellacking in Hattiesburg.

Marshall is unbeaten in three home games this year, cashing tickets at a 2-1 ATS clip. During Holliday's six-year tenure, the Thundering Herd has compiled a 15-10-1 spread record in 26 games as a home favorite.

The 'under' is 3-2 overall for Marshall, 2-1 in its home games. The Thundering Herd has seen its games average a combined score of 50.8 points per game.

The 'under' is 3-2 overall for the Golden Eagles, 1-1 in their road assignments.

The 'over' is 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these C-USA adversaries.

CBS Sports Network will provide the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

North Carolina St. at Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech QB Michael Brewer led his team to a 17-14 halftime lead over Ohio State in the season opener in Blacksburg. However, he injured his shoulder in the third quarter and hasn't played since then. However, he was upgraded to 'probable' on Wednesday and will get the starting nod Friday night at Lane Stadium.

As of early Thursday afternoon, most books had Virginia Tech (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) listed as a 1.5 or two-point favorite with a total of 46.

Frank Beamer's team bounced back from a 42-24 season-opening home loss to Ohio St. by winning back-to-back contests vs. Furman (42-3) and at Purdue (51-24). However, Virginia Tech has dropped consecutive games since then, falling 35-28 at East Carolina two weeks ago before losing a 17-13 decision to Pitt last week as a 3.5-point home favorite. The Hokies were absolutely atrocious on offense against the Panthers, producing only 100 yards of total offense. They ran for just nine yards on 33 carries. Junior QB Brenden Motley was intercepted three times.

Virginia Tech senior nose tackle Corey Marshall, a second-team All-ACC selection last season, has been downgraded to 'doubtful' vs. N.C. State due to a hamstring injury. The defense has already lost All-American CB Kendall Fuller to a season-ending knee injury. Making matters worse, a pair of RBs (Marshawn Williams and Shai McKenzie) have also gone down with season-ending injuries.

North Carolina State raced out to a 4-0 record both SU and ATS with victories vs. Troy (49-21), vs. Eastern Kentucky (35-0), at Old Dominion (38-14) and at South Alabama (63-13). However, Dave Doeren's team suffered its first loss last Saturday when Louisville came into Raleigh and emerged with a 20-13 triumph as a 2.5-point underdog.

In the loss to U of L, N.C. State failed to convert on a pair of fourth-down plays and also coughed up a pair of fumbles. The offense could only manufacture 228 total yards, as the ground game produced only 45 rushing yards on 30 attempts. That fact can be attributed to the loss of the Pack's premier RB, senior Shadrach Thornton, who was dismissed from the program a few days before the Cardinals got into town. Thornton rushed for 907 yards and nine TDs last season. In two games this year, Thornton ran for 203 yards and three TDs while averaging 6.8 YPC.

N.C. State has one of the ACC's best QBs in Jacoby Brissett, who threw for 2,606 yards with a 23/5 TD-INT ratio in 2014. He also ran for 529 yards and three TDs last year. In 2015 so far, Brissett is completing 73.2 percent of his passes for 992 yards and seven TDs without an interception. Jaylen Samuels has a team-best 25 receptions for 300 yards and four TDs.

N.C. State is vastly improved on the defensive side of the ball. It returned eight starters from a unit that gave up 27.0 PPG in 2014. Granted, the Wolfpack will be facing better offenses in ACC play in the coming weeks, but we'll nonetheless note how it ranks third in the nation in total defense, sixth in rushing defense and ninth in pass defense. N.C. State is allowing only 13.6 PPG, ranking 11th in the country.

N.C. State has a 3-3-1 spread record in seven games as a road underdog on Doeren's watch. The Pack went 3-1 in four such spots last year and we should also mention that it is 2-0 ATS on the road this year, though both situations came in the double-digit 'chalk' role.

Since 2011, Virginia Tech has limped to a 7-16-1 ATS record in 24 games as a home favorite.

The 'over' is 4-1 overall for the Hokies, 2-1 in their home outings.

The 'under' is 3-2 overall for the Wolfpack, 1-1 in its road assignments.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. There's a 60-percent chance of rain in the weather forecast.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: North Carolina State at Virginia Tech


North Carolina State Wolfpack at Virginia Tech Hokies (-2, 46.5)

Virginia Tech needs a boost after two straight unexpected losses and could get a big one when they host North Carolina State on Friday night in an ACC contest. Quarterback Michael Brewer, who suffered a broken collarbone in the opener against No. 1 Ohio State, was cleared to practice Monday as the Hokies began preparing to host the Wolfpack for the first time since 2009.

Brewer, who was 11-for-16 against Ohio State before going down, likely will be a game-time decision when Virginia Tech goes for its fourth straight win in the series. N.C. State is coming off its first loss of the season -- a 20-13 defeat against Louisville at home -- and has dropped eight of its last 10 ACC road games. Wolfpack quarterback Jacoby Brissett has not thrown an interception in his last 34 quarters of action and will go against a defense that boasts 12 takeaways. The key may be who can get their ground game going, after Virginia Tech managed only nine yards rushing last week in a 17-13 loss to Pittsburgh and N.C. State had 45 in 30 carries.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Hokies as 1.5-point home faves, but that's moved to -2. The total opened at 51 but has come down to 46.5.

INJURY REPORT:

North Carolina State

G Alex Barr (Questionable, ankle), G Bryce Kennedy (Questionable, concussion), RB Johnny Frasier (Questionable, ankle).

Virginia Tech

QB Michael Brewer (Probable, shoulder), DT Corey Marshall (Questionable, hamstring), LB Sean Huelskamp (Questionable, suspension), RB Marshawn Williams (Out for season, knee), CB Kendall Fuller (Out for season, knee), RB Shai McKenzie (Out for season, knee), CB Shawn Payne (Out indefinitely, personal).

WEATHER: Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-60s with a 61 percent chance of rain showers. Wind will blow across the field at around five miles per hour.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Virginia Tech enters this game off back-to-back SU losses as a favorite. The same situation occurred last year when Tech started the season 2-0 SU after beating Ohio State on the road. Tech then went on a 2-5 SU (1-6 ATS) slide afterwards. It will be interesting to see if the Hokies experience another mid-season slump this year... or if they can turn things around at home for this national TV Friday night game." Covers Expert Steve Merril.

ABOUT N.C. STATE (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Running back Matthew Dayes was held to 68 yards last week after producing at least 100 in the first four games this season and has registered 10 touchdowns overall. Brissett has completed 73.2 percent of his passes, including seven TD strikes, and tight end Jaylen Samuels is the top target (25 catches, 300 yards, four TDs). The Wolfpack are third in the nation in total defense (225.8 yards per game), buoyed by a strong non-league performance, but allowed 306 last week – 203 on the ground.

ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS, 4-1 O/U): Brenden Motley has thrown for 861 yards and completed 57.1 percent of his passes with seven TD tosses and five interceptions since replacing Brewer. The bigger problem is the Hokies’ ground attack, which was throttled in a 17-13 loss to Pittsburgh last week with leading rusher Travon McMillian held to 14 yards. Isaiah Ford is the top receiver with 24 receptions for 382 yards (two, 21 last week), and Motley or Brewer needs better protection to find him after the Hokies surrendered seven sacks last Saturday.

TRENDS:

* Under is 8-0 in Hokies last eight games in October.
* Wolfpack are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.
* Under is 5-1 in Wolfpack last six vs. a team with a losing record.
* Hokies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in October.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-eight percent of Covers users are backing the Hokies.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NLDS Doubleheader Betting Preview


Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (-106, 6.5)

The Chicago Cubs just picked up their first postseason win since 2003 and have all the momentum going in their favor as they head into the National League Division Series. The St. Louis Cardinals are well-prepared for the pressures of the postseason and will host the rival Cubs in Game 1 of the NLDS on Friday.

The Cardinals are one of only two teams that finished with more wins than Chicago’s 97 in the regular season and are familiar with the Cubs’ reluctance to back down from a challenge, something that cropped up again after starter Jake Arrieta was hit by a pitch in the 4-0 wild card win over the Pittsburgh Pirates. “We're going to stand up for our guys,” Chicago left-hander Jon Lester told ESPN.com. “And we're going to make sure that the other teams know we're going to stand up for our guys.” St. Louis and the Cubs engaged in a testy series from Sep. 18-20 that included several hit batters and some harsh words from Chicago manager Joe Maddon. Lester will take the mound in Game 1 against St. Louis righty John Lackey, who was Lester’s teammate on the 2013 World Series-winning Boston Red Sox.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Cards -106 and the total at 6.5.

INJURY REPORT: Cubs - N/A. Cardinals - C Yadier Molina (Probable, thumb).

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Cardinals won 11 of the 19 games including going 7-3 at home. John Lackey is 2-0 with a 1.25 ERA in three starts against Chicago in 2015. He has a 1.93 ERA in 17 home starts. Lackey has had his way with Kris Bryant (2-9), Starlin Castro (3-12) and Anthony Rizzo (1-12). Jon Lester gets the call for the Cubs. He is 1-3 with a 2.59 ERA in five starts this season against the Cardinals. Matt Carpenter (4-14), Jason Heyward (10-24) and Matt Holliday (5-9) have had success against the former Red Sox pitcher. The Cards are hitting just .211 in their last seven games." Covers Expert Steve Merril.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cubs LH Jon Lester (11-12, 3.34 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH John Lackey (13-10, 2.77)

Lester limited opponents to two or fewer earned runs in five of his final six starts, with the lone outlier coming when he surrendered four runs in six innings to lose to the Cardinals on Sep. 20. The two-time World Series champion was better 11 days earlier in St. Louis, when he yielded one run and two hits over seven frames. Lester is 6-4 with a 2.57 ERA in 14 career postseason games – 12 starts.

Lackey is a two-time World Series winner as well – with the 2002 Angels and 2013 Red Sox – and allowed a total of seven runs in his final five regular-season starts. The Texas native was at his best at home in 2015 with a 9-4 record and a 1.93 ERA, including a pair of home starts against Chicago in which he yielded a total of three runs in 14 2/3 innings. Lackey is 7-5 with a 3.08 ERA in 21 career postseason games – 18 starts.

TRENDS:

* Over is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Cubs are 10-1 in their last 11 road games.
* Cubs are 1-9 in their last 10 playoff games.
* Cardinals are 5-1 in their last six Divisional Playoff home games.


New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers (-199, 5.5)

The Los Angeles Dodgers own the largest payroll in the major leagues, but their path to a World Series title is largely in the hands of just two players. One of those aces, Clayton Kershaw, will try to exercise some postseason demons when the Dodgers host the New York Mets in Game 1 of the National League Division Series on Friday.

Kershaw and Zack Greinke will undoubtedly both finish in the top three of the NL Cy Young voting this season and are set up to pitch twice each if the series goes seven games, with Greinke following Kershaw in Game 2. The Mets are loaded in the starting rotation as well but are much shorter on experience, with Jacob deGrom set to make his postseason debut opposite Kershaw before Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey take their first turns in the playoffs. Kershaw will be going up against a New York offense that transformed itself in the second half and led the NL with 373 runs scored and a .770 OPS after the All-Star break. The Los Angeles offense went in the opposite direction and dipped to 13th in the NL in runs scored after the All-Star break as rookie center fielder Joc Pederson struggled and Yasiel Puig missed most of the final month with a hamstring injury.

LINE HISTORY: The Dodgers opened -195 before moving to -199. The total opened at 5.5.

INJURY REPORT: Mets - P Steven Matz (Probable, back), SS Wilmer Flores (Questionable, illness), 3B Juan Uribe (Out indefinitely, chest). Dodgers - LF Scott Van Slyke (Out indefinitely, wrist), 2B Jose Peraza (Out indefinitely, hamstring), P Bronson Arroyo (Out for season, elbow), P Josh Ravin (60-day DL, hernia), P Hyun-Jin Ryu (Out for season, shoulder), P Brandon McCarthy (Out for season, elbow).

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Dodgers' starter Clayton Kershaw is 11-3 with a 1.67 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP in his 17 home starts. Michael Cuddyer (4-16), Lucas Duda (1-10), Kelly Johnson (3-15), Curtis Granderson (1-10), Juan Lagares (0-7), David Wright (3-14) have struggled vs. Kershaw. Los Angeles has been a much stronger team at home this season (55-26 SU) compared to on the road (37-44 SU)." Covers Expert Steve Merril.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Dodgers LH Clayton Kershaw (16-7, 2.13 ERA) vs. Mets RH Jacob deGrom (14-8, 2.54)

Kershaw led the majors with 301 strikeouts during the regular season and allowed more than three earned runs in a start only once after May 21. The former MVP has not always been that sharp in the postseason, however, and is 0-4 with a 7.15 ERA in his last four playoff starts – all against the St. Louis Cardinals. Kershaw never had those problems against New York and enters 6-0 with 1.34 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets, including a three-hit, 11-strikeout, no-walk shutout on July 23.

DeGrom struggled a bit from the end of August to the middle of September but allowed one run in 10 innings over his final two starts in the regular season, including four no-hit innings against Washington on Sunday. The All-Star struck out 205 and walked just 38 in 191 innings this season but enters the series 0-2 with a 3.66 ERA in three career starts against the Dodgers. Meanwhile, deGrom nearly picked up his first win against Los Angeles on July 26 but was held out of the decision despite scattering two hits across 7 2/3 scoreless innings.

TRENDS:

* Dodgers are 8-1 in Kershaw's last nine starts vs. Mets.
* Over is 16-5-2 in the last 23 meetings.
* Mets are 6-0 in deGrom's last six starts vs. National League West.
* Dodgers are 25-3 in Kershaw's last 28 starts vs. National League East.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 16
By David Schwab

Week 16 of the CFL regular season features a unique five-game schedule starting this Tuesday night with the Ottawa RedBlacks on the road against Toronto. Looking back at last week’s results, the RedBlacks got things started with a 39-17 victory against Montreal last Thursday as three-point home favorites.

Calgary tightened its grip on another West Division title with a key 23-20 win over Hamilton on Friday to cover as a two-point road favorite. Saturday’s CFL action saw Edmonton sneak past Winnipeg 24-23 as a 6 ½-point road favorite while British Columbia closed things out with a 46-20 romp over Saskatchewan as a three-point favorite at home.

Friday, Oct. 9

Saskatchewan Roughriders (2-12 SU, 4-10 ATS) vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -7
Total: 50

Game Overview

The Roughriders continue to ride out the string in lost season. They come into this game with a 1-5 record ATS on the road this season and they are 3-5 ATS in the eight games they closed as underdogs. Saskatchewan is averaging a respectable 24.4 points a game on offense, but its defense is ranked dead-last in the CFL in points allowed (30.9).

Hamilton needs to hold on in the absence of quarterback Zach Collaros, who was lost for the season with a knee injury. In his place against Calgary last week, Jeff Mathews completed 15 of his 23 attempts for 155 yards and he could not get his team into the end zone through the air. The Tiger-Cats also struggled to move the ball on the ground with just 31 rushing yards on the day.

Betting Trends

Saskatchewan is 6-3 ATS in its last nine road games against the Tiger-Cats and the total has stayed UNDER in four of the last six meetings in Hamilton. The Roughriders lost the first meeting this season 31-21 on July 26 as two-point home favorites.