Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
**Clemson at Boston College**
-- If you’re a gambler who likes to hunt for situational advantages, you may have one here with Boston College. The Eagles get Clemson at home on a short week with the Tigers coming off a 42-36 win over previously-undefeated Louisville in a slugfest. Coupled with FSU’s loss at home to UNC, the victory essentially gave Dabo Swinney’s team a two-game lead in ACC Atlantic and plenty of breathing room, potentially setting up a flat spot laying more than two touchdowns on the road.
-- As of Wednesday, most betting shops had Clemson (5-0 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) listed as a 17-point favorite with a total of 43. The Eagles were +550 on the money line (risk $100 to win $550).
-- Clemson has won five in a row over BC and seven of the last eight. With that said, the Eagles have taken the cash in three consecutive head-to-head meetings, including a 17-13 home loss as 5.5-point underdogs in 2014. The Tigers won by a 34-17 count as 18-point home favorites last year at Death Valley. BC trailed just 17-10 at intermission, but Deshaun Watson connected on a pair of second-half TD passes to get Clemson ahead of the number with a 34-10 advantage. However, with 1:29 remaining, Jeff Smith’s one-yard TD run for BC gave his team and its betting supporters the backdoor spread cover. Watson threw for 420 yards and three TDs and ran for another score, but we should mention that he was also intercepted twice.
-- The ‘under’ is 5-2 in the last seven Clemson-BC encounters.
-- Clemson raced out to a 28-10 halftime lead over Louisville last Saturday night as a one-point home underdog. Watson threw three TD passes in the second quarter, including a five-yard scoring strike to Artavis Scott with five seconds left until intermission. U of L would score 26 unanswered points in the second half and took a 36-28 advantage on Lamar Jackson’s 11-yard TD run with 7:52 remaining. Scott probably came up with the biggest play of the game on the ensuing kickoff, returning it 77 yards to five the Tigers a short field. Moments later, Watson found Mike Williams for a 20-yard TD pass at the 7:06 mark. Although the two-point conversion failed, Clemson went ahead on its next possession thanks to Waton’s fifth TD pass of the night, a 31-yard connection to Jordan Leggett with 3:14 remaining. Jackson quickly marched U of L down the field and into the red zone. But on a fourth-down play with 33 seconds left, Jackson’s short pass to James Quick came up one yard shy of a first down when Quick inexplicably ran out of bounds without cutting inside and giving up his body when it appeared he had room to get a first down.
-- After a scorless first quarter, the 78 combined points scored in the next three stanzas allowed the ‘over’ (64) to cash tickets. Watson completed 20-of-31 throws for 306 yards with five TDs and three interceptions. He rushed for 91 yards on 14 carries, while Wayne Gallman ran 16 times for 110 yards and one TD. Deon Cain had four receptions for 98 yards and two TDs. Jackson threw for 295 yards in the losing effort. The Heisman Trophy favorite ran 31 times for 162 yards and two scores.
-- Watson hasn’t produced the stats he did last season, but the zero in the loss column for his team is all that matters. He has completed 60.8 percent of his passes for 1,302 yards with a 14/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has rushed for 211 yards with a 4.3 yards-per-carry average. Gallman has 366 rushing yards and four TDs with a 4.6 YPC average. Williams, who missed nearly all of 2015 after sustaining a season-ending neck injury in Week 1, has a team-high 25 receptions for 373 yards and two TDs. Ray-Ray McCloud has 24 catches for 271 yards and two TDs, while Scott has 19 grabs for 183 yards and one TD. Cain has a team-best four TD catches.
-- Clemson’s defense had three sacks and 10 tackles behind the line vs. Louisville. DC Brent Venables’ stop unit ranks 12th in the nation in total defense, 14th against the pass and 16th in scoring defense (16.0 points per game). This group is led by senior LB Ben Boulware, who has 38 tackles, one interception, four tackles for loss, one sack, one forced fumble and one pass broken up. Sophomore safety Van Smith has a team-best 39 tackles to go with one interception and 2.5 TFL’s.
-- Clemson WR Hunter Renfroe will miss a fourth straight game since breaking his hand in a 30-24 win over Troy in Week 2. Renfore had 33 catches for 492 yards and five TDs in 2015. He had four receptions for 62 yards and two TDs before suffering the injury. Also, sophomore LB Jalen Williams (knee) and freshman LB Tre Lamar (ankle) are listed as ‘questionable.’ Williams, who didn’t play vs. U of L, had 11 tackles and one interception in the first four games. Meanwhile, Lamar has recorded eight tackles, 2.5 TFL’s and one sack. Sophomore DE Austin Bryant, who has missed the first five games due to a foot injury, might make his season debut but is listed as ‘questionable.’ As a freshman in ’15, Bryant had 23 tackles and 1.5 sacks.
-- Boston College (3-2 SU, 2-2-1 ATS) has three wins at UMass (26-7), vs. Wagner (42-10) and vs. Buffalo (35-3). Steve Addazio’s squad lost 17-14 against Georgia Tech in the season opener in Dublin, Ireland. Then in Week 3, the Eagles were demolished by a 49-0 count at Va. Tech. Addazio is 20-23 during his four-year tenure at BC and is considered to be on warm seat in terms of his job security. A win in this spot at home over Clemson would do wonders for his prospects of seeing a fifth year at the helm.
-- To be fair, Addazio took over a program that went 4-8 and 2-10 in 2011 and ’12, respectively. He went 7-6 in back-to-back campaigns that saw his team go bowling each time. BC dropped a 31-30 overtime decision to Penn St. at the Pinstripe Bowl two years ago. In 2015, BC saw its top two QBs get injured in September and 3-1 start turned into a painful eight-game losing streak. In those eight games, the Eagles couldn’t generate any semblance of an offensive attack, never once scoring more than 17 points. They lost five games by 14 combined points.
-- BC’s defense was one of the nation’s best last season, allowing just 15.3 PPG. Once again this year, BC has one of the country’s best stop units. The Eagles are tops in the nation in total defense (202.0 yards per game), No. 1 against the pass (124.0 YPG), seventh versus the run (78.0 YPG) and 16th in scoring defense (17.2 PPG). This group is led by senior safety John Johnson, junior LB Connor Strachan and senior LB Matt Milano. Johnson has 28 tackles, one interception, one forced fumble, four passes broken up and 0.5 TFL’s, while Milano has 27 tackles, 4.5 TFL’s, three sacks and one PBU. Strachan has recorded 24 tackles, 7.5 TFL’s, 2.5 sacks, one forced fumble and one QB hurry.
-- In last week’s win over Buffalo, BC’s defense gave up only five first downs and 67 total yards of offense. The Bulls converted only 1-of-11 third-down attempts. Patrick Towles, the grad transfer QB from Kentucky, completed 14-of-25 passes for 234 yards and two TDs without an interception. Jon Hilliman rushed for 54 yards and one TD, while Jeff Smith had five receptions for 55 yards.
-- Towles has connected on 55-of-108 passes (50.9%) for 806 yards with a 6/3 TD-INT ratio. He has rushed for 174 yards and three TDs. Hilliman has rushed for a team-best 294 yards and five TDs, but he’s averaging merely 3.4 YPC. Smith has a team-high 14 catches for 247 yards and three TDs.
-- The ‘under’ is 4-1 overall for BC, 2-0 in its home games. The ‘under’ has cashed at a 10-1 clip in the Eagles’ last 11 home games.
-- The ‘under’ is 4-1 overall for Clemson, 2-0 in its road assignments. However, the Tigers’ lowest previous total was 58. In other words, the ‘over’ would be 3-2 instead of 1-4 if they had seen previous totals in the low 40s.
-- Kickoff from Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN. The weather forecast for Friday night calls for clear conditions, 5-10 mph winds and a low temperature of 52 degrees.
**Boise State at New Mexico**
-- Boise State (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS) will be in revenge mode Friday night in Albuquerque, where it faces a New Mexico team that came to the blue carpet and stunned the Broncos in a 31-24 win as a 31-point road underdog last season. As of Wednesday, most books had BSU installed as a 17-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 61. The Lobos were +575 on the money line (risk $100 to win $575).
-- Bryan Harsin’s team has wins at UL Lafayette (45-10), vs. Washington St. (31-28), at Oregon St. (38-24) and vs. Utah St. (21-10). BSU has failed to cover the number in three straight games, including last week’s win over the Aggies as a 24.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Brett Rypien completed 15-of-24 passes for 163 yards and two TDs without an interception. Jeremy McNichols rushed 30 times for 132 yards while also catching six passes for 73 yards and one TD. Cedric Wilson connected with McNichols on a 61-yard TD pass off a trick play in the first quarter. Wilson also had two catches for 46 yards and one TD, while Thomas Sperbeck had five receptions for 64 yards and one TD. Boise St.’s defense gave up 358 yards, but it stopped Utah St. 15 times on 19 third-down attempts.
-- Rypien has completed 58.6 percent of his passes for 1,024 yards with a 6/3 TD-INT ratio. Sperbeck is his favorite target, hauling in 24 receptions for 431 yards and three TDs. Wilson has 14 catches for 265 yards and two TDs, while McNichols has 16 receptions for 216 yards and three TDs. McNichols has rushed for 504 yards and seven TDs with a 5.7 YPC average.
-- Boise State owns an 8-5 spread record in 13 games as a home favorite since Harsin took over for Chris Petersen in 2014.
-- New Mexico (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) has compiled a 6-9 spread record in 15 games as a home underdog during Bob Davie’s five-year tenure. Davie has a 20-34 record as UNM’s head coach, taking the program to its first bowl game since 2007 last season when the Lobos finished 7-6. They lost 45-37 as nine-point home ‘dogs to Arizona in the New Mexico Bowl in their own stadium. I doubt I’m on an island solo with this thought -- let’s hope the Lobos get another bowl invite this year, so we can at least get one more year with Davie on the sidelines and NOT in an analyst chair chafing us beyond belief.
-- New Mexico has beaten South Dakota (48-21) and San Jose St. (48-41) at home while dropping a pair of road games at New Mexico St. (32-31) and at Rutgers (37-28). The Lobos bested the Spartans last week but were unable to cover the 10.5-point spread. UNM was actually ahead of the number on four different occasions, only to give up a 14-yard TD pass with 31 ticks left to allow San Jose St. to post the backdoor cover. The Lobos had taken a 41-20 advantage late in the third quarter on Austin Ocasio’s 37-yard pick-six. After the Spartans answered with 14 straight points to slice the deficit to 41-34, UNM’s Richard McQuarley scored on a six-yard TD run with 2:54 remaining.
-- New Mexico averaged 7.0 YPC and produced 446 rushing yards against San Jose St. Teriyon Gipson paced the balanced attack with 156 yards and one TD on just 11 carries. Tyrone Owens added 117 rushing yards and one TD on 16 attempts, while McQuarley had 83 yards and three scores on 16 totes.
-- New Mexico is second in the nation rushing yards per game (347.0 YPG). Gipson has run for a team-high 399 yards and has five TDs and a 12.9 YPC average. Owens has rushed for 308 yards and one score with a 5.5 YPC average, while McQuarley has 202 rushing yards, a 5.0 YPC average and a team-high seven TD runs.
-- Lamar Jordan and Austin Apodaca have split time at the QB position, but Apodaca is now ‘out’ for an indefinite period of time with a collarbone injury. Apodaca has completed 29-of-52 throws (55.8%) for 372 yards with a 3/2 TD-INT ratio. He has 122 rushing yards and one TD on 20 attempts. Jordan has completed 12-of-19 passes (63.2%) for 129 yards with a 0/1 TD-INT ratio. Jordan has rushed for 148 yards and one TD on 29 carries.
-- Boise State will be without senior CB Jonathan Moxey in the first half due to a targeting suspension from last week’s win over Utah St. Moxey, who has 31 career starts, has recorded 20 tackles, one TFL and three PBU this year. Dylan Sumner-Gardner, who was BSU’s likely starter at safety, is poised to make his season debut after serving a four-game suspension.
-- The ‘over’ is a perfect 4-0 for the Lobos with combined scores of 69, 63, 65 and 89 points.
-- The ‘under’ is 3-1 overall for the Broncos, 1-1 in their two road contests.
-- The CBS Sports College Network will have the broadcast from University Stadium at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- There are five undefeated teams remaining ATS: Western Michigan and Colorado are 5-0 ATS, while Miami, Ohio St. and Toledo are 4-0 versus the number.
-- Worst ATS squads: Arkansas State (0-4 ATS going into Wednesday’s home game vs. Georgia Southern), FAU (0-5), Bowling Green (0-5), Oregon (0-4-1) and UConn (0-4-1).
Coach of the Year candidates:
1-Paul Chryst (Wisconsin)
2-Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M)
3-Bobby Petrino (Louisville)
4-P.J. Fleck (Western Michigan)
5-Mike MacIntyre (Colorado)
-- Speaking of the Buffaloes, star QB Sefo Liufau is ‘questionable’ at Southern Cal due to an ankle sprain that has caused him to miss the last two games. Liufau completed 71.1 percent of his throws for 768 yards and six TDs without an interception in the CU’s first three contests. Steven Montez, a redshirt freshman, has answered the call, however. In his first career start, Montez threw for 333 yards and three TDs in a 41-38 upset win at Oregon as a 14-point underdog. For the season, Montez has connected on 63.2 percent of his passes for 743 yards with an 8/2 TD-INT ratio. He also has 193 rushing yards and one TD while averaging 5.8 YPC. The Buffs are 4.5-point ‘dogs at USC.
-- Arizona QB Anu Solomon has missed four consecutive games with a knee injury and remains a question mark for Saturday’s game at Utah. Brandon Dawkins has played well with Solomon out, throwing for 698 yards with a 4/1 TD-INT ratio. Dawkins has also rushed for a team-high 435 yards and seven TDs with an 8.9 YPC average. However, Dawkins is also ‘questionable’ this week (ribs). RB Nick Wilson (273 yards, 5.6 YPC & 3 TDs) is also a question mark along with defensive star DeAndre’ Miller, who had 13 tackles, four TFL’s and two sacks in the Wildcats’ first three games.
-- Utah is also dealing with a number of injuries. Three WRs are ‘questionable,’ including Tim Patrick, who has a team-high 24 catches for 429 yards and five TDs. Also, star DT Lowell Lotulelei, a first-team All Pac-12 selection last season, missed last week’s 28-23 loss at Cal and is ‘questionable’ vs. AU. Lotulelei has nine tackles, two TFL’s and one sack in four games.
-- East Carolina QB Phillip Nelson is ‘questionable’ at USF. The transfer from Minnesota has played extremely well for the Pirates, completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 1,753 yards with an 11/4 TD-INT ratio.
-- It’s time for this space to offer a little praise for Troy second-year head coach Neal Brown. After four losing seasons over the last five years, Brown has the Trojans with a 4-1 record both SU and ATS. The only Troy loss was a 30-24 decision at unbeaten Clemson. The Trojans’ lone non-cover came in their opener, a 57-17 win over Austin Peay as 41-point home favorites. They won outright by a 37-31 count at Southern Miss as 9.5-point road underdogs in Week 3. Following a 34-13 victory at Idaho last weekend, Troy has an open date before hosting Georgia State.
