Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
Louisville at Wake Forest
As of Wednesday, most betting shops had Louisville (3-4 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) listed as an 11.5-point favorite with a total of 42. The Demon Deacons were +360 on the money line (risk $100 to win $360).
Wake Forest (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) has lost back-to-back contests and four of its last five, including a 35-17 home loss to North Carolina State this past Saturday. The Wolfpack took the cash as a nine-point road favorite, while the 52 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 43.5-point tally. The Demon Deacons gave up four touchdown plays of 57 yards or longer in the first quarter alone, falling behind 28-0.
Wake Forest QB Kendall Hinton completed 12-of-22 passes against N.C. St. for 107 yards. He rushed 13 times for 75 yards and a pair of TDs. For the season, the true freshman has rushed for 330 yards and six TDs while averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Hinton has connected on just 54.4 percent of his throws for 812 yards with a 2/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Louisville lost three one-possession games to start the season. Bobby Petrino’s squad dropped a 31-24 decision against Auburn at the Georgia Dome in the season opener. Next, the Cardinals lost at home to Houston (34-31) and Clemson (20-17), but they responded with consecutive triumphs vs. Samford (45-3) and at N.C. State (20-13).
After losing by a 41-21 count at FSU, Louisville won a 17-14 decision over Boston College at Papa John’s Stadium this past weekend. However, the Cards failed to take the cash as seven-point home ‘chalk.’ The U of L defense dominated the Eagles, limiting them to 79 yards of total offense and -14 rushing yards. BC mustered just four first downs and got one of its TDs on a blocked punt. Petrino’s bunch was unable to cover the number due to four turnovers. Lamar Jackson threw for 230 yards and ran for a TD, but he was sacked seven times and intercepted twice. U of L’s defense also produced seven sacks with Trevon Young taking the QB down twice. Keith Kelsey had 4.5 tackles for loss, while Sheldon Rankins scored on a fumble return.
Jackson has rushed for a team-best 482 yards and six TDs, averaging 4.9 YPC. The true freshman signal caller has been less successful through the air, completing only 55.4 percent of his passes for 1,135 yards with a 6/7 TD-INT ratio.
As a home underdog during Dave Clawson’s tenure, Wake Forest owns a 5-3 spread record. The Deacs have lost outright in three of four home games this season, going 2-2 versus the number.
U of L owns a 3-1 spread record in four games as a road favorite on Petrino’s watch. The Cards are 1-1 both SU and ATS in a pair of road assignments this year, winning at N.C. State (20-13) and losing at FSU (41-21).
The ‘under’ is 4-2-1 overall for U of L, going 4-1 in its last five games. The Cardinals have seen the ‘under’ go 1-1 in in their two previous road assignments. They have seen their games average combined scores of 47.3 points per game.
The ‘over’ is 4-3-1 overall for Wake Forest, 2-1-1 in its home outings. The Demon Deacons have seen the ‘over’ hit in back-to-back games. Their games have averaged a combined score of 42.0 PPG.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
East Carolina at Connecticut
As of Wednesday, most books had East Carolina (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) installed as a seven-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 51. The Huskies were +220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220).
UConn (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) has lost back-to-back games and four of its last five both SU and ATS, including a 37-13 setback at Cincinnati last Saturday as a 10.5-point underdog. Bryant Shirreffs completed only 12-of-27 passes for merely 87 yards and was intercepted once. He rushed 17 times for 90 yards. The defense gave up 612 yards.
UConn owns wins over Villanova (20-15), Army (22-17) and UFC (40-13). The Huskies have lost at Missouri (9-6), vs. Navy (28-18), at BYU (30-13) vs. USF (28-20) and at Cincy.
Ruffin McNeill’s squad has wins vs. Towson (28-20), vs. Va. Tech (35-28), at SMU (49-23) and vs. Tulsa (30-17). ECU has lost at Florida (31-24), at Navy (45-21), at BYU (45-38) and vs. Temple (24-14). The Pirates failed to cover the number as three-point home favorites against the Owls, who overcame a 14-10 deficit by scoring a pair of TDs in the last 3:31 of the fourth quarter last Thursday in Greenville.
ECU had more total offense (378-322) than Temple, but it couldn’t overcome a pair of turnovers and a blocked punt. The Pirates’ defense limited Temple RB Jahad Thomas, the AAC’s leading rusher, to a season-low 66 yards on 20 carries. Chris Hairston ran for 65 yards and one TD on just eight carries in the losing effort. Junior QB Blake Kemp threw for 272 yards and one TD, but he was also intercepted once. Isaiah Jones had 10 receptions for 106 yards.
Kemp became the starter when Kurt Benkert went down with a season-ending injury in August. Kemp has completed 70.1 percent of his passes for 1,823 yards with an 11/7 TD-INT ratio. Juco transfer QB James Summers usually get a few series in each game, in addition to snaps in short-yardage situations. Summers has connected on 32-of-48 throws for 428 yards with a 4/1 TD-INT ratio. Summers has also rushed for 383 yards and six TDs while averaging 6.4 YPC.
Hairston has run for a team-best 525 yards and seven TDs while averaging 4.4 YPC. Jones has a team-high 61 catches for 701 yards and three TDs. Hairston has 24 receptions for 159 yards and one TD.
ECU WR Daquan Barnes is ‘questionable’ due to a hip injury, while WR Jimmy Williams is ‘out’ with an ankle injury. Williams had 14 receptions for 118 yards and two TDs in the first five games. Starting OT Dontae Livingston is ‘out’ with an undisclosed injury.
The UConn offense revolves around Shirreffs, a sophomore transfer from North Carolina State, and sophomore RB Arkeel Newsome, who has rushed for a team-high 408 yards and four TDs while averaging 5.0 YPC. Shirreffs has connected on 62.0 percent of his passes for 1,723 yards with a 7/5 TD-INT ratio. Shirreffs has rushed for 342 yards and a pair of scores.
As a home underdog since Bob Diaco took over in 2014, the Huskies have compiled a 2-6 record both SU and ATS.
ECU has limped to an abysmal 4-9 spread record in 13 games as a road favorite during McNeill’s tenure.
The ‘over’ is 5-3 overall for ECU, 4-0 in its road assignments. However, the Pirates have seen the ‘under’ cash in back-to-back games. Their games have produced a combined points average of 59.0 points per game.
The ‘under’ is 6-2 overall for the Huskies, 3-1 in their four home outings. Their games have averaged a combined score of 41.1 PPG.
ESPNU will have the broadcast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
There are two other games on Friday’s slate, including Louisiana Tech at Rice and Wyoming at Utah State. As of Wednesday, most spots had the Bulldogs installed as 12.5-point road ‘chalk.’ The Aggies were favored by 28 over the Cowboys. Rice is 11-9-1 ATS in 21 games as a home underdog during David Bailiff’s tenure.
Old Dominion is the nation’s only remaining team that’s winless for our purposes with a 0-7 spread record. Toledo is the only undefeated team ATS with a 6-0-1 mark.
North Carolina State QB Jacoby Brissett has a 10/1 TD-INT ratio this season. Since arriving at N.C. St. as a transfer from Florida, Brissett has a 33/6 TD-INT ratio with four rushing scores. He will lead the Wolfpack up against unbeaten Clemson this weekend as a 10-point home underdog. The Tigers had failed to cover in four consecutive road favorite situations until blasting Miami 58-0 in South Florida last weekend.
Washington State is just 3-6 ATS in nine games as a home underdog during Mike Leach’s tenure. However, the Cougars are playing their best football since Leach took over going into Saturday’s Pac-12 showdown vs. Stanford. As of Wednesday, the Cardinal was a 12-point ‘chalk’ at most spots. As a road favorite on David Shaw’s watch, Stanford has posted a 12-8 spread record.
