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CFL Betting Recap - Week 17
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites went 3-1 straight up in Week 17
-- Underdogs went 2-1-1 ATS in Week 17
-- Road teams posted a 3-1 SU record in Week 17
-- Road teams posted a 3-0-1 ATS record in Week 17
-- The under went 3-1 in Week 17

Team Betting Notes

-- Calgary (13-2) continues to roll right along. They have won seven of their eight road games, and they are 7-1 ATS away from home.

-- Hamilton (7-8) started the season with a 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS through the first seven games, but they're 6-2 SU over the past eight games. The 'under has also been a frequent happening for the TiCats, going 5-1 over the past six games.

-- While Toronto (6-9) has won three of the past four games, but they have failed to cover in three straight after their 20-12 setback to Montreal (7-8).

-- The Alouettes have caught fire in the second half of the season. After starting out a dismal 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS in the first eight games, Montreal is 6-1 SU/ATS over the past seven games to vault into first place in the East. Defense has been a huge part of their success, allowing just 43 total points over the past four games, with the 'under' cashing in three of those outings.

-- Edmonton (11-5) can't catch Calgary in the West Division, but they are going to the playoffs. The Eskimos have ripped off six consecutive covers, too.

-- Ottawa (2-13) has struggled to pick up victories and post points, but their defense has kept them in games. While Ottawa has scored 10 or fewer points in seven of the past nine games, but they have given up 20 or fewer in five of the past seven. There is still betting value with the RedBlacks, who are 4-2 ATS over the past six games, and the 'under' is 7-2 over the past nine.

-- Stop if you've heard this before...another week, another loss for Winnipeg (6-10). They started out 5-1 SU/ATS over the first six games, but they're now 1-9 SU and they have failed to cover each of their past six.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 18
By David Schwab

There are just three weeks left in the CFL regular season and while Calgary has already clinched the West Division, the race to the division title in the East is probably going to be a three-team battle to the bitter end.

Last week in the CFL, Hamilton got things started with Friday’s 16-6 victory against Ottawa as a 12-point home favorite. The total stayed well UNDER the 45-point closing line. Montreal got a leg-up on Toronto in key showdown in the East with a 20-12 victory as a five-point road underdog in a game where the total also stayed UNDER on a closing line of 51.

The other two games last week saw the Stampeders clinch the West with a 33-23 win over Winnipeg. That contest ended as a PUSH with Calgary favored by 10 points on the road. The total went OVER the 48 ½-point closing line. This past Sunday, Edmonton got past Saskatchewan 24-19 as a 4 ½-point road favorite with the total staying UNDER the 48 ½-point line.

Friday, Oct. 24

Montreal (7-8 SU, 8-7 ATS) at Ottawa (2-13 SU, 6-9 ATS)

Point-spread: Montreal -7
Total: 44

Game Overview

Montreal could have easily been given-up for dead after posting a dismal 1-7 straight-up record in its first eight games, but the Alouettes have turned things around down the stretch with a current SU winning streak of four games. They are also 4-0 against the spread and the total has stayed UNDER in three of the four games. They have outscored their opponents 106-43 during this run.

The RedBlacks will be happy to see their inaugural season in the CFL come to an end after posting just two SU wins in their first 15 games. You have to give this expansion team credit for showing up each week and, after covering against the Tiger-Cats last week, Ottawa is now 4-2 ATS in its last six games.

Betting Trends

Montreal has won the two previous meetings this season both SU and ATS starting with a 20-10 win at home as a five-point favorite in Week 10 followed by a 15-7 victory as 2 ½-point road favorites at the end of September. The total stayed UNDER in both games

Saskatchewan (9-7 SU, 6-10 ATS) at Calgary (13-2 SU, 10-4-1 ATS)

Point-spread: Calgary -10
Total: 46 ½

Game Overview

It has been a really rough go of it for Saskatchewan ever since quarterback Darian Durant was lost for the season due to injury. The team’s nine SU wins are good enough to have already clinched a spot in this year’s Grey Cup Playoffs, but given the fact that the Roughriders have just one SU win in their last six games with a 0-6 record ATS, their stay in the postseason will most likely be short lived. This offense has scored a grand total of just 52 points in its last four games (all losses both SU and ATS).

With the division clinched, you might see Calgary take its foot off the gas these last three weeks, but be careful if you are going to bet on it. Bo Levi Mitchell threw for 258 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s win over Winnipeg and Jon Cornish racked-up a 160 yards and a score on the ground in 21 rushing attempts.

Betting Trends

The Roughriders have lost six of their last seven road games against Calgary SU and they are 3-10 SU in this series in the last 13 games overall. The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Week 18 Betting Preview and Trends
By Mike Pickett

The race for first place in the CFL's East division will continue this week as the Toronto Argonauts play host to the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and the Montreal Alouettes look for another win over the Ottawa RedBlacks. Here's a look at this week's CFL betting slate.

Montreal at Ottawa

Last 10 Meetings: Ottawa 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS | OU 0-2

The Ottawa RedBlacks will try for a third time to pick up a victory over the Montreal Alouettes when those teams hit the gridiron together on Friday night. The RedBlacks fell in Montreal 20-10 as a 4.5-point underdog on August 29, then lost 15-7 at home to the Alouettes as a 1.5-point underdog on September 26. Both of those matchups turned out to be easy UNDER results for totals bettors on the CFL betting lines at the sportsbooks.

Saskatchewan at Calgary

Last 10 Meetings: Calgary 7-3 SU, 4-5-1 ATS | OU 6-4

The Calgary Stampeders are already 1-0 both SU and ATS against the Saskatchewan Roughriders this season as those Western teams meet again on Friday night. The Stampeders topped the Roughriders 31-24 as a 6-point road favorite in the first meeting of the season between the two teams on October 3 in an OVER result. Overall the Stampeders are 4-2 SU but just 2-3-1 ATS in their last half-dozen games against the Roughriders dating back to 2012.

Hamilton at Toronto

Last 10 Meetings: Toronto 5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS | OU 7-3

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats will be out for revenge on Saturday afternoon as they try to make up for a slim loss to the Toronto Argonauts in their most recent game against their provincial rival. The Argonauts edged the Tiger-Cats 34-33 but failed to cover the 4-point spread on the CFL odds at the sportsbooks when the teams last met on October 10. That made Toronto just 1-4 both SU and ATS in its last five games against Hamilton, with the OVER/UNDER going 2-3 in those matchups.

B.C. at Winnipeg

Last 10 Meetings: Winnipeg 4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS | OU 3-7

The UNDER has paid out for totals bettors in both games between the B.C. Lions and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers so far this season as those two teams meet once again on Saturday night. Winnipeg topped B.C. 23-6 as an 8-point road underdog in their first meeting of the season on July 25, but the Lions turned the tables on September 13 with a 26-9 home victory as a 7.5-point favorite. The Blue Bombers are just 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS in the last seven games between the two teams.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL

MONTREAL (7 - 8) at OTTAWA (2 - 13) - 10/24/2014, 6:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
MONTREAL is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in road games when playing on a Friday since 1996.
MONTREAL is 48-78 ATS (-37.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1996.
MONTREAL is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 2-0 against the spread versus OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 2-0 straight up against OTTAWA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SASKATCHEWAN (9 - 7) at CALGARY (13 - 2) - 10/24/2014, 9:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
CALGARY is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing on a Friday over the last 3 seasons.
CALGARY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 115-79 ATS (+28.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 104-70 ATS (+27.0 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-3 against the spread versus CALGARY over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 6-3 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
6 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL

Trends

MONTREAL vs. OTTAWA
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Montreal's last 19 games
Montreal is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Ottawa is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 5 games at home

SASKATCHEWAN vs. CALGARY
Saskatchewan is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Saskatchewan is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Calgary is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Saskatchewan
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Calgary's last 7 games when playing Saskatchewan

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Week 18 CFL games

Montreal (7-8) @ Ottawa (2-13)—Alouettes have caught fire behind former Tennessee QB Crompton, winning four in row, six of last seven games (6-1 vs spread); they’ve beaten Ottawa twice this year, 20-10 (-5) at home in Week 10, running for 183 yards, then 15-7 (-2.5) here three weeks ago, a game where RedBlacks outgained Als by 65 yards. Montreal won last two road games by 8 points each, after losing first five on foreign soil. Ottawa lost 45-13/41-3 last two weeks, both on road; they’re 2-5 SU at home, 3-4 as home underdog, with three of five losses by 8+ points. Six of last nine Ottawa games, three of last four Montreal games stayed under total.

Hamilton (7-8) @ Toronto (6-9)—Teams split pair of 1-point decisions this year, with home side winning both; Argos’ 34-33 win (-3.5) two weeks ago not only snapped TiCats’ 5-game win streak, it also ended their 4-game win streak over Toronto. Hamilton lost five of last seven visits here; they’ve won six of last seven games overall, but are 1-6 SU on road, with only win 16-11 at struggling Winnipeg four weeks ago. Argonauts are playing 4th straight home game; they’ve won three of last four games, are 4-3 SU at home, 1-3 vs spread when favored. Four of last five Toronto games went over total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Grand Salami - October

The Grand Salami in pro hockey is decided by adding up all the goals scored in every game scheduled for that particular day. You can wager on 'over' or 'under' the Grand Salami total. The total is set by adding up all listed 'over/under' odds for each game on that particular day.

Note: The Grand Salami will have no action if any game is suspended or cancelled before the regulation time of three twenty minute periods. Also, regardless of the number of goals scored during the shoot out portion of the overtime, the final scored recorded for the game will give the winning team on more goal than its opponent based on the score at the end of regulation time.

*The majority of sportsbooks do not put out a total on the Grand Salami when there is only one game on the card. For tracking purposes, we will continue to show the 'over/under' for goals and combined goals scored on days with just one game.


NHL GRAND SALAMI

Date No. of Games Total Goals Combined Goals Scored Result

10/8 4 22 20 UNDER
10/9 12 67.5 70 OVER
10/10 1 5.5 8 OVER
10/11 15 79.5 84 OVER
10/12 2 10 14 OVER
10/13 4 21.5 18 UNDER
10/14 9 50.5 60 OVER
10/15 3 16 19 OVER
10/16 7 39 42 OVER
10/17 6 32.5 18 UNDER
10/18 11 59.5 55 UNDER
10/19 4 21 15 UNDER
10/20 1 5.5 5 UNDER
10/21 10 55.5 59 OVER
10/22 3 16.5 18 OVER
10/23 8 - - -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF ACC Report - Week 9
By Joe Williams

The Atlantic Coast Conference will have its biggest draw taking a rest this week, as unbeaten Florida State takes a break after its thrilling win in a marquee game last week against Notre Dame. Clemson's star is fading, but they're the only ranked ACC team in action this week, facing Syracuse under the lights in Death Valley.


2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 4-3 1-2 5-2 2-4-1
Clemson 5-2 4-1 4-3 3-4
Duke 6-1 2-1 4-2-1 1-5
Florida State 7-0 4-0 1-6 3-4
Georgia Tech 5-2 2-2 3-4 4-3
Louisville 6-2 4-2 5-3 1-6-1
Miami (Fla.) 4-3 1-2 3-4 3-4
North Carolina 3-4 1-2 2-5 4-2
North Carolina State 4-4 0-4 4-4 3-4-1
Pittsburgh 4-3 2-1 3-3-1 2-4-1
Syracuse 3-4 1-2 3-4 2-4-1
Virginia 4-3 2-1 5-1-1 3-4
Virginia Tech 4-3 1-2 3-4 2-4
Wake Forest 2-5 0-4 3-4 1-6


North Carolina at Virginia (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Tar Heels hit the road for Charlottesville looking to turn things around. UNC has allowed 34 or more points in five straight games, 27 or more in all seven outings this season and they're just 2-5 ATS overall. Lately, the over has been the play in games involving the Tar Heels, going 4-1 over the past five. However, the under is 6-2-1 in the past nine meetings in this series. UNC hasn't had a ton of success at Scott Stadium over the years, going just 2-7 ATS in their past nine trips to UVA, although they have covered the past four meetings overall against the Hoos. UVA is 3-1-1 ATS in their past five ACC games, with their lone non-cover coming last week at Duke. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their past six at home, and 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine games overall.

Georgia Tech at Pittsburgh (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)
Things were going swimmingly for the Ramblin' Wreck until a couple of weeks ago when they faced Duke at home. They lost their first conference game 31-25 to the Blue Devils, and then were tripped up on the road at North Carolina, 48-43, last week. The Yellow Jackets are just 2-8 ATS in their past 10 against a team with a winning record, and 5-11-1 ATS in their past 17 games overall. In addition, they're 0-4 ATS in their past four road games against a team with a winning home record. For Pitt, while they are 1-3-1 ATS in their past five, the Panthers are 3-1-1 ATS in their past five ACC battles, and 3-1-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record. Better yet, the Panthers are 10-1 ATS in their past 11 home games against a team with a winning road mark.

Boston College at Wake Forest (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)
The Eagles head to Winston-Salem looking to maintain their dominance agaisnt a Demon Deacons team which has been hard-pressed to must any offense. Boston College is 4-1 ATS in their past five overall and 8-3 ATS in their past 11 ACC battles. However, they are also 4-10 ATS in their past 14 road games, and 8-23 ATS in their past 31 against a team with a losing record. However, that's old BC. This season in two road tilts, they are 2-0 SU/ATS. The real trend to be mindful about might be the under, which has cashed in three straight for the Eagles and four straight, and six of seven, for the Deacs. Wake Forest is averaging just 6.7 points per game over the past three.

Syracuse at Clemson (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m.)
Syracuse hits the road for Death Valley looking to build on last weekend's thrashing of Wake Forest on the road. The Orange are 4-1 ATS in their past five road trips, and 4-1 ATS in their past five road outings against a team with a winning home record. For Clemson, they're 5-1 ATS in their past six home games, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven ACC games. However, all bets are off with backup QB Cole Stoudt under center. The Tigers barely scratched out a 17-13 win at Boston College last week in Stoudt's first start since Sept. 20. The under has hit in three straight for Clemson, and the under is 4-1-1 in the past six for Syracuse.

BYES
Duke, Florida State, Louisville and North Carolina State

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Report - Week 9
By ASA

Game of the Week

Michigan State (-17) vs. Michigan - 3:30 PM EST
After an early 17-14 second quarter deficit to Indiana, the Spartans were able to get on track to the tune of 42 unanswered points in the 56-17 blowout win. The Hoosiers, playing with their third string quarterback, were completely outmatched against this MSU defense. Hoosiers' QB Diamont completed just 5-of-15 passes for 11 yards as Indiana limped to just 224 total yards (75 of which came on one TD run) and 7 first downs. It was just the type of dominating win that the Spartans needed after back-to-back close calls against Nebraska and Purdue. MSU, meanwhile, did whatever it wanted on offense, gaining 662 yards and achieving 30 first downs. It was the fifth time in seven games that the Spartans scored 45+ points and Sparty now has the 3rd ranked scoring offense in the nation. This week they return to East Lansing for the all-important rivalry game with in-state rival Michigan.

Michigan was off last week after ending a three-game skid with a home win over Penn State. It'll be a matchup of strengths as MSU will try to get its 12-ranked rushing attack going against this Michigan run-defense that surrenders just 93.3 yards per game on the ground. The Wolves' offense will need to perform much better than the unit that has averaged just 16.5 PPG over the last four games. They'll also need to avoid costly mistakes that have plagued them throughout the year (-13 turnover ratio). This hasn't been a very close rivalry in recent past as the Spartans are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Last year MSU won 29-6 and owned a +226 yard advantage as it held Michigan to -48 total rushing yards. Michigan State is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 conference games. Michigan is just 10-23-1 ATS in its last 34 road games.

Best of the Rest

Ohio State (-13.5) @ Penn State - 8:00 PM EST
Ohio State QB Barrett is putting himself in the Heisman discussion as he has averaged 292.5 pass YPG with 17 pass TD, 3 rush TD, and just 1 INT over the last four games. OSU has outscored those four opponents 224-69, including a 56-17 blowout win over Rutgers last week. The game was over early as OSU scored early and often en route to a 35-7 halftime lead. The Buckeyes' defense suffocated the Scarlet Knights on offense, not allowing any big plays and forcing three turnovers. Rutgers' yardage total was 345, but a lot of that came in garbage time when the game was well in hand for the Bucks. OSU is playing at an extremely high level on both sides of the ball and it will take a huge effort for the Nittany Lions to come up with an upset on Saturday. The Nittany Lions are off of a bye after playing six straight games to start the season. They are off of a second consecutive loss in their last week against Michigan and are now reeling after a strong 4-0 start. Christian Hackenberg may have all the talent in the world, but he appears to be playing without confidence; mainly because the offensive line stinks and he has so few playmakers around him. Hackenberg has just 1 TD pass in the last four games and the Nittany Lions have limped to just 104 rush yards on 60 carries (1.7 YPC) in consecutive losses.

The defense continues to be outstanding as this unit held Michigan to just 256 total yards - including 64 rush yards on 2.1 YPC - and 12 first downs. The pass defense has surrendered B1G-best three TD passes this season and is allowing opposing QB's to complete just 53.8%. They'll face their toughest test to date against Barrett and this rolling OSU offense. OSU is 3-0 SU & ATS in the last three road games against the Nittany Lions, winning by an average margin of 16.3 PPG (all by 12 points or more). Last year the Buckeyes won in Columbus by 49 points and had +329 yards, +12 first downs, and +3 in turnovers. OSU is on an extraordinary run on the road with a 35-15-1 ATS record in the last 51 road games. They are also 28-12-2 ATS in the last 42 vs. a team with a winning record. Penn State is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games following a SU loss and 11-5 ATS in the last 16 home games.

Nebraska (-17.5) vs. Rutgers - 12:00 PM EST
The Huskers got off to a slow start in Evanston last week and trailed Northwestern 14-17 at halftime. They woke up in the 2nd half and put the Wildcats away with a 24-0 surge to win 38-17 in a key road win. RB Adullah rebounded after a poor performance against MSU (45 rush yards) to rush for 146 yards and 4 TD against NW. The Huskers defense limited Northwestern to just 290 total yards and frustrated Wildcats QB Siemian into just 18-of-39 completions with 0 TD and 1 INT. Northwestern RB Jackson had 99 rush yards and 2 TD in the 1st half, but Nebraska limited his impact in the 2nd half and held him to just 29 rush yards in the final two quarters. The Huskers will face a similar team this Saturday against Rutgers. Expect Nebraska to ride Abdullah against this Rutgers D that surrendered 324 rush yards on 8.1 YPC to Ohio State last week. Rutgers played well hosting its first two B1G games against Penn State (narrow three-point loss) and Michigan (two-point win) before getting absolutely blasted in its first B1G road game last week at Ohio State. A normally stout pass defense was picked apart by OSU's Barrett, who finished with 261 yards and 3 scores.

The Scarlet Knights didn't get much going on offense and the lack of playmakers on offense was apparent as QB Nova struggled to get the ball down-field and finished with just 192 pass yards despite attempting 28 passes. The three-headed rushing attack of Peoples, Goodwin, and Martin combined for 170 yards on 31 carries with 2 TD, representing the lone thing that went right for the Scarlet Knights last week. Rutgers gets another tough road test this week as it travels to Lincoln to take on the Huskers. Rutgers is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a road underdog, though they did fail to cover last week as the 20.5-point 'dog @OSU. Nebraska is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 as a home favorite of 14 points or more.

Minnesota (-6.5) @ Illinois - 12:00 PM EST
An ugly win is still a win and the Gophers have become accustomed to winning ugly. A week after needing a 99-yard kickoff return for TD to beat Northwestern at home, the Gophers needed a second half comeback to hold off a stiff challenge from the visiting Boilermakers. Purdue held a 38-29 lead in the 3rd quarter before Minny scored the final 10 points to escape with a victory. Three different players scored a rushing TD as Minnesota romped for 285 rush yards on 5.5 YPC while QB Leidner was an opportunistic with 2 TD passes on just 9 completions. It's a bit concerning that the Gophers were so ceding against the Boilers offense as they allowed 451 total yards, including 298 rush yards on 8.5 YPC. Minnesota yielded a number of big plays, including a 55-yard TD pass and a 42-yard TD run. Still, the 39-38 win might not have been the most impressive, but Minnesota stands alone in first place in the B1G West as it heads to Champaign this weekend.

Illinois used part of their bye week to decide between Aaron Bailey and Reilly O'Toole for starting QB, and it appears that both will split time against Minnesota. Credit the Illini for playing the Badgers tougher than anyone really expected in their last game; especially considering they were playing their first game without star QB Wes Lunt. Illinois jumped out to a 14-7 lead - before the Badgers scored the next 31 points - and then cut a 24-point deficit to just 10 in the 4th quarter. Backup QB Riley O'Toole made a few big plays (2 TD passes) and the rushing attack notched 153 yards against the Badgers. Still, despite all the "good" things that the Illini did, they were still outgained by 210 yards and allowed UW RB's Gordon & Clement to rush for 339 yards and 5 TD. This is a porous defense, and now without Lunt, the offense is not nearly as explosive. The Gophers are 7-2 SU & ATS in the last nine meetings with Illinois. They've won three straight overall (3-0 ATS) and four straight in Champaign (4-0 ATS). Minnesota is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 overall and 8-1 ATS in the last nine B1G games. The Gophers are also 15-7 ATS in the last 22 as a road favorite. Illinois is just 5-15 ATS in its last 20 conference games and just 5-13 ATS following a SU loss.

Wisconsin (-10.5) vs. Maryland - 12:00 PM EST
The Badgers had last week off after their 38-28 win over Illinois on October 11th. The winning margin of 10 points over Illinois is a bit misleading as the Illini scored a couple of garbage touchdowns and the Badgers had a +210 yard advantage; but the Badgers had to overcome another slow start and struggled yet again to get a passing attack going. The lack of quarterback production didn't matter against the Illini as the Badgers gored Illinois' defense for 401 rush yards on 8.5 YPC, but the Badgers will need to develop an aerial attack if they want a shot at a B1G title. Melvin Gordon had another huge day (175 rush yds, 4 TD) to continue his torrid pace of 868 rush yards and 12 TD over the past four games. Maryland has been rather lenient against the rush this season, allowing 198 rush YPG (104th nationally). The Terps will likely attempt to stack the box and not allow Gordon to dictate the pace of this game, rather make Wisconsin QB's Stave & McEvoy beat them through the air.

Defensively, the Badgers' pass defense ranks as the top unit in the B1G, allowing just 50.3% completions for 169.2 YPG with just 5 pass TD. They'll be tested against Maryland QB Brown and a talented receiving corps. CJ Brown is healthy and ready to go after a wrist injury sidelined him for part of the game last week. Despite playing with their 3rd string QB at times, the Terps were still able to get a seven-point win over the Hawkeyes. Maryland's defense surrendered 433 yards, but forced three turnovers - and returned one for a TD - in a much-needed conference victory. Maryland makes its first road trip to Madison this week where the Badgers have as much home field advantage of anyone in the country. The Badgers are 64-7 SU in their last 71 home games and they are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games as a B1G home favorite of 10 points or more. Maryland is just 4-8 ATS as a road underdog of 10 points or more, but they are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games overall.

Northwestern - Bye
The Wildcats have dropped back-to-back games after starting 2-0 in B1G play, but there are positives to take away. They were tied with the Gophers late @Minnesota two weeks ago before allowing a game-winning 99-yard kickoff return for TD. Last week they were leading at halftime against Nebraska before the Huskers scored the final 24 points in the game. The Wildcats will need to figure out how to add a little punch to this offense. QB Siemian has just four TD passes this season and this rushing attack is ranked 105th nationally. They have yet to reach the 30-point mark in a game and have been held to 20 points or fewer in three consecutive league games. The defense is good enough to keep Northwestern competitive against most opponents, but that will go unnoticed as long as this offensive ineptitude continues. Next up is a road trip to Iowa to try to avenge last year's seven-point overtime loss.

Iowa - Bye
The Hawkeyes had two quick touchdowns at Maryland last week and appeared to be in great position to pull off the upset - and then Maryland scored 38 of the next 45 points. QB Rudock threw for 317 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT, but he completed just 32-of-56 passes (57%) and the INT he threw was returned for a Maryland touchdown. Rudock has been forced to throw it more than he should because Iowa has trouble mustering any sort of rushing threat (90th in rush YPG). As is the case with a number of other Big Ten squads this year, a stout defense will only carry this Iowa team so far before the offense needs to pick up some slack. Iowa still controls its own destiny in the Big Ten race with key games against Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Nebraska on deck, and they'll use the bye week to work out the kinks before hosting Northwestern last week.

Purdue - Bye
Quarterback Austin Appelby has revitalized this offense that was downright putrid in 2013. He has led Purdue to three straight games of 30+ points, two of which came against the stout defenses of Michigan State and Minnesota. The Boilers took an 11-point lead into halftime against the Gophers and led by nine points late in the 3rd quarter before Minny scored the final 10 points to notch the 39-38 victory. Appleby threw three touchdown passes and the Boilers rushed for 298 yards on 8.5 YPC. Purdue has now covered six of eight games this season, including four of five as the underdog. It'll be tough for the Boilers to become bowl eligible as they need to win three of the remaining four games against Nebraska, Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Indiana - but the arrow is definitely pointing up for Purdue. Next up the Boilers travel to Lincoln where they'll likely be heavy 'dogs against the Huskers.

Indiana - Bye
A season-ending injury to starting QB Sudfeld pushed freshman Zander Diamont under center last week against Michigan State for the first start of his career. It did not go well as he completed just 5-of-15 passes for 11 yards. Somehow, Indiana held a 17-14 lead in the second quarter before Michigan State scored the game's final 42 points. Other than a stout offensive line that paves the way for star RB Tevin Coleman (132 yards on 15 carries against the Spartans), there isn't much to like about the direction of this team. What once looked like a promising season in Indiana has now been replaced by concern over whether Indiana will win another game this season. Next up the 3-4 Hoosiers travel to Ann Arbor to face the Wolverines.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Report - Week 9
By Joe Williams

The Pac-12 has Oregon with hopes of a spot in the four-team playoff at season's end, but it's hard to envision any of the other teams in the league with a prayer, even Arizona, which beat Oregon. It has been a strange season in the Pac-12 so far, as UCLA dropped back-to-back games before barely scratching out a win at Cal last week, effectively taking themselves out of major bowl contention. And Stanford has three losses this season already. If not for Oregon, the Arizona schools, and a surprising run by Utah, it would be a tremendously disappointing season in the conference.


2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 5-1 2-1 2-4 2-4
Arizona State 5-1 3-1 3-3 3-3
California 4-3 2-3 5-2 4-3
Colorado 2-5 0-4 3-4 4-3
Oregon 6-1 3-1 3-4 3-3-1
Oregon State 4-2 1-2 2-4 2-3-1
Southern California 5-2 4-1 5-2 4-3
Stanford 4-3 2-2 3-4 0-6
UCLA 5-2 2-2 1-6 2-4-1
Utah 5-1 2-1 5-1 2-3-1
Washington 5-2 1-2 3-4 2-5
Washington State 2-5 1-3 3-4 3-4


Oregon at California (Fri. - FOX Sports 1, 10:00 p.m. ET)
The scoreboad operator at Memorial Stadium in Berkeley is already limbering up, doing finger exercises to get ready for Friday's potential track meet. The last time Oregon QB Marcus Mariota played at Cal he went for a career-high six touchdown passes. The Golden Bears have QB Jared Goff, who has the second-highest QB rating in the conference behind the Heisman Trophy candidate Mariota. The Ducks are favored by 18 points for Friday's late-night battle. They have been strong on the road against the number, going 14-4 ATS in their past 18 road games, and 10-2 ATS in their past 12 road games against a team with a winning home record. For what it's worth, Oregon has failed to cover its past four appearances on Fridays. Cal heads into this one 5-2 ATS in the past seven overall, but just 5-12 ATS in their past 17 against a team with a winning record, and 3-11 ATS in their past 14 at home. In this series, the Ducks are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, but the home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six. The under might be more attractive, cashing in six of the past seven meetings in the series. The under is also 5-0-1 in Oregon's past six on the road, and 3-1-1 in their past five overall. For Cal, the under is 12-3-1 in their past 16 games in the month of October.

UCLA at Colorado (Pac-12 Network, 2:00 p.m. ET)
UCLA heads to Folsom Field in Boulder looking to stay perfect on the road, as they're 4-0 SU away from Pasadena this season. However, the Bruins are just 1-6 ATS in their past seven overall, and a dismal 7-19 ATS in their past 26 games overall in the month of October. Colorado has improved, although it hasn't exactly translated into victories on the field. However, they're keeping games closer these days, going 5-2 ATS in their past seven Pac-12 games. The road team has cashed in four of the past five meetings in this series.

Oregon State at Stanford (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
The Cardinal are in a rare spot, as they have three losses and it is still just late October. They find themselves as a two-touchdown favorite against Oregon State, who is 5-2 ATS in their past seven on the road, and 4-1 ATS in their past five road games against a team with a winning home record. The Cardinal are 6-2 ATS in their past eight home games, and 25-12-1 ATS in their past 38 conference tilts. However, they are just 1-5 ATS in their past six against a team with a winning record. In this series, the trends seem to point to Stanford. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, the home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven in the series, and the Beavers are 0-4 ATS in their past four battles with the Cardinal.

Arizona at Washington State (Pac-12 Network, 5:00 p.m.)
In one of those 'too good to be true' lines, the Wildcats are favored by a field goal (or less at some shops) on the Palouse. Perhaps it is because the trends point to Washington State. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, and the underdog is 10-2 ATS in the past 12 meetings. Arizona is just 1-4 ATS in their past five overall, with their only cover their outright win at Oregon a few weeks ago as a 21-point underdog. They're 0-6 ATS in their past six road games against a team with a losing home record. However, they are also coming off a bye, and they're 11-5 ATS in their past 16 following a bye week. Washingotn State is 5-2 ATS in their past seven conference games.
Southern California at Utah (FOX Sports 1, 10:00 p.m.)
The Trojans have seized control of first place in the Pac-12 South Division, and they hope to stay their after their game at Rice-Eccles. USC is 4-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record, and 6-2 ATS in their past eight games overall. However, they're just 4-12 ATS in their past 16 road games, and 2-8 ATS in their past 10 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Utes are 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall, and 5-0 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning record, while posting a 7-3 ATS mark in their past 10 home games against a team with a winning road record. The under is the trend which looks to be dominant. The under is 8-1-1 in USC's past 10 against a team with a winning record, while Utah is 3-0-1 in the past four overall and 7-1-1 in Utah's past nine against a team with a winning record. The Utes are also 5-2 in their past seven at home.

Arizona State at Washington (ESPN, 10:45 p.m.)
The head-to-head trends in this series jump right off the page. Arizona State has covered its past six trips to Seattle, and the Sun Devils are a whopping 9-1-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings against the Huskies. However, Arizona State is just 15-33-3 ATS in their past 51 road games against a team with a winning home record, and 1-6-1 ATS in their past eight games on field turf. For Washington, they have covered 17 of their past 24 home games, although they're just 16-40-2 ATS in their past 58 games in the month of October. The total trends are conflicting, too. The over has been hot for AZ State, going 17-7 in their past 24 road games, and 20-8 in their past 28 against a team with a winning record. The under is 10-1 in Washington's past 11 home games against a team with a winning road record, and 18-7-1 in their past 26 home games, and 5-2 in their past seven against a team with a winning record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bad Company - Week 9
By Kevin Rogers

The bad teams in college football continue to stick out like a sore thumb heading towards the end of October. Several of these squads are listed as double-digit underdogs in conference action this week, trying to hang around and cover the spread. We’ll take a look at five of these clubs, including Colorado, who hopes to avoid another blowout against a Los Angeles school.

Colorado (+13) vs. UCLA – 2:00 PM EST

The Buffaloes were blitzed out of the gate by USC last Saturday, allowing 28 first quarter points in a 56-28 blowout as 20-point underdogs. How bad was Colorado’s defense? Trojans’ quarterback Cody Kessler burned the Buffs for seven touchdown passes, including five in the first half. CU has yielded 36 points or more in five of the past six games, while failing to cover its last two contests after three straight ATS wins.

The Bruins dodged a third straight loss in Saturday’s 36-34 victory at California, but didn’t cash as 6 ½-point favorites. UCLA owns a dreadful 1-6 ATS record this season, but has won all four of its road contests at Virginia, Texas, Arizona State, and Cal. The Bruins have cruised past the Buffaloes in all three meetings since Colorado joined the Pac-12 in 2011, but CU covered as 30-point underdogs at the Rose Bowl last season in a 45-23 defeat.

Georgia State (+16 ½) vs. Georgia Southern – 2:00 PM EST

This Sun Belt battle is an obvious mismatch, with Georgia Southern looking for its fifth consecutive win, facing a Georgia State team that has dropped six straight games. However, the Panthers have turned into a solid money-maker, covering in four of the past five contests, including in last week’s 30-27 defeat at South Alabama as 19 ½-point underdogs. Georgia State owns an incredible 11-3 ATS record as a ‘dog since the start of last season, but have lost 10 of its past 11 home contests.

Georgia Southern is the top rushing team in the country, averaging 372 yards a game on the ground, facing a Georgia State squad that allows 241 rushing yards a contest. The Eagles have covered six of seven games this season, as the lone ATS defeat came in a 36-28 win at New Mexico State as 17 ½-point road favorites.

Kent (+7) at Miami, Ohio – 2:30 PM EST

These MAC rivals have combined for a 2-13 record out of the gate, as the Redhawks are favored in conference play for the second time since 2012. This season, Miami has failed to cover in the favorite role against Eastern Kentucky and UMass, while its only victory came over the Minutemen, 42-41 as 5 ½-point ‘chalk.’ All five ATS wins for Miami came as a double-digit underdog, but the Redhawks have compiled a 3-9-1 ATS record since 2012 either in the single-digit ‘dog role or as a favorite.

Kent put together its best performance of the season last Saturday, stunning Army as a three-point home underdog, 39-17 for its first win following an 0-6 start. The Golden Flashes have covered just two of seven games this season, while scoring only 27 points in three road losses at Ohio State, Virginia, and Northern Illinois. Kent has won each of the past two meetings with Miami, including a 24-6 drubbing of the Redhawks as 19 ½-point road favorites last season.

Wake Forest (+12 ½) vs. Boston College – 3:30 PM EST

The Demon Deacons are by far the worst team in the ACC, losing their three conference games by a combined 93-20 to Louisville, Florida State, and Syracuse. The Orange scored the final 30 points in a 30-7 rout at Wake Forest last Saturday, but Syracuse was aided by a pair of defensive touchdowns. Wake has dropped seven straight conference contests since last season, while posting an 0-3 SU/ATS mark at home in this stretch.

Boston College barely covered as 5 ½-point home underdogs in a 17-13 loss to Clemson, the third ATS victory for the Eagles in the ‘dog situation this season. The Eagles need to avoid a letdown this week, with games against Virginia Tech, Louisville, and Florida State on the horizon, as BC is just 2-7 in its past nine ACC road contests. Boston College dominated Wake Forest last season, 24-10 as three-point home favorites, as the Eagles are 1-3 ATS in its past four opportunities as a road favorite.

Vanderbilt (+20 ½) at Missouri – 4:00 PM EST

The Tigers bounced back in a big way after getting shut out at home by Georgia, as Mizzou waxed Florida at the Swamp, 41-13, in spite of racking up just 119 yards. It helps that the Tigers scored four non-offensive touchdowns, including a kickoff return and a punt return for a score. Missouri’s schedule is extremely manageable the rest of the way for a shot to go to the SEC championship, avoiding Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, and Mississippi State in the final five games. The Tigers are 3-0 SU/ATS since joining the SEC as a double-digit home favorite in conference play.

Vanderbilt is fresh off the bye week after edging FCS school Charleston Southern, 21-20 as 20-point home favorites. The Commodores have covered their last three opportunities as an underdog in losses to Georgia, Kentucky, and South Carolina, but Vandy has scored 17 points or less in three of four SEC games. Since 2012, the Commodores have compiled a solid 7-2 ATS record as a road ‘dog in conference play, while winning at Missouri in 2012 as a seven-point ‘dog, 19-15.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

QB Kelly expected to start for Arizona State
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Arizona State quarterback Taylor Kelly, who missed the past three games with a foot injury, is expected to return to the starting lineup for the Sun Devils next game against Washington on Saturday, Arizona State coach Todd Graham said Monday.

Kelly has not played since suffering the injury in the Sept. 13 victory over Colorado.

Backup Mike Bercovici finished that game and started the next three. The Sun Devils were 2-1 in the games Bercovici started, losing to UCLA, but then beating USC and Stanford in a difficult three-game stretch.

Bercovici has completed 62.2 percent of his passes with 10 touchdown passes and two interceptions. He also threw the Hail Mary pass that beat USC on the final play of the game.

Despite Bercovici's recent success, Graham has said all along that Kelly would regain the starting job when he was healthy enough to play. Kelly is more mobile than Bercovici and gives the Sun Devils a running threat that Bercovici doesn't.

For the season, Kelly has completed 42-of-68 passes for 625 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions while rushing 19 times for 168 yards and two more scores.

The 14th-ranked Sun Devils are 5-1, including 3-1 in the Pac-12 South, while Washington is 5-2 overall and 1-2 in the Pac-12 North.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Clemson's leading rusher out for season
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Clemson freshman running back Adam Choice, the team's leading rusher, suffered a torn ACL in Saturday's game against Boston College and will miss the rest of the season, coach Dabo Swinney said Monday.

Choice is expected to have surgery within a few weeks and should be ready to play at the start of the 2015 season.

He ends his season with 218 rushing yards.

The 21st-ranked Tigers (5-2, 4-1 ACC) will also be without tight end Jordan Leggett for several weeks after he suffered a knee injury in Saturday's game.

On the positive side, running back Dyshon Dye, who has not played this season after tearing his Achilles tendon last February, is expected to practice this week and could play Saturday. Dye redshirted the 2013 season because of a back injury.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF opening line report: LSU faces statement game vs. Ole Miss
By COLIN KELLY

Mississippi at Louisiana State (+3)

Unbeaten Mississippi is ranked No. 3 in the country heading into Week 9 of the college football season, with a 7-0 SU record. More important for bettors backing the Rebels, though, is that they are ranked No. 2 against the spread, having yet to lose to the oddsmakers, with a 6-0-1 ATS record.

Keeping both those streaks intact won’t come easy in a Southeastern Conference that’s been eating its own all season. Ole Miss hopes to keep its championship hopes alive when it travels to the bayou this week to face Louisiana State (6-2 SU and ATS).

The Rebels rolled Tennessee 34-3 to easily cash as a 16-point home chalk Saturday, while LSU is coming off a 41-3 home trouncing of Kentucky laying 11.5 points.

“Tennessee was a very real overlook spot for the Rebs, and they played a complete game,” said John Lester, senior lines manager for bookmaker.eu. “I’d say this is the best team in the country, but I still don’t trust their quarterback (Bo Wallace).

“And just when everyone was ready to write off LSU, they come back with a big win. They could make a major statement here.”

Oregon Ducks at California Golden Bears (+18.5)

These Pac-12 rivals square off in a Friday night game, with No. 7 Oregon (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) continuing its quest to try to get back into the four-team playoff picture. Since their stunning 31-24 home loss to Arizona, the Ducks rolled over UCLA 42-30 giving 1.5 points on the road, then thumped Washington 45-20 as a 21-point home fave.

After going 4-1 SU and ATS in its first five games, California (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) has dropped two in a row, but the Golden Bears gave UCLA all it could handle Saturday before losing 36-34 as a 6.5-point home underdog.

“We’ve seen a massive uptick from the Ducks' offense since their left tackle (Jake Fisher) returned. Marcus Mariota remained relatively clean against a pretty good pass-rushing team Saturday,” Lester said. “Cal is so one-dimensional offensively and bad defensively, I don’t know if they can keep up.

Southern California Trojans at Utah Utes (+1)

No. 19 Utah (5-1 SU and ATS) is just a few minutes away from a perfect record this season, with its only loss coming on a late TD in a 28-27 setback at Washington State. The Utes have been a big surprise, beating Michigan at the Big House – though the Wolverines are awful – and following their lone loss with a 30-28 upset at UCLA and a 29-23 overtime win at Oregon State last Thursday giving 1.5 points.

No. 21 Southern Cal (5-2 SU and ATS) has also won its last two SU and ATS, pummeling visiting Colorado 56-28 on Saturday as a 19.5-point fave.

“We expect to see a lot of groundwork between these two teams,” Lester said. “The Utes have been fantastic for their backers this year, but USC is a very public team, so we had to be wary of those factors when setting the line.”

Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans (-17)

You can’t say much good about Michigan (3-4 SU and ATS), but Michigan State (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) is another story. The fifth-ranked Spartans’ lone loss came at Oregon in a game they were in through three quarters before getting flattened late 46-27 as a 14-point road pup in Week 2.

Since then, they’ve won five in a row SU (3-2 ATS), including a 56-17 road beatdown of Indiana on Saturday as an 11.5-point favorite. Michigan is coming off a bye, after fending off Penn State 18-13 as a 2.5-point chalk to end a three-game SU slide.

“I’m not so sure Mark Dantonio doesn’t have one of the top four teams in the nation. The Spartans are impressive, and they finished a game decisively this week (at Indiana),” Lester said. “I don’t have much to say about this one. Michigan is garbage, and in a rivalry situation, this could get ugly.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Line Watch: Bettors should jump on Marshall now
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Marshall -28 vs. Florida Atlantic

Marshall opened as a 26-point home favorite over Florida Atlantic, and the line quickly moved up to -28. The Thundering Herd are a perfect 7-0 SU on the season, and they need all the style points they can in order for a remote shot at getting into the 4-team playoff discussion.

Florida Atlantic has been awful on the road this season. The Owls are 0-4 SU with three of their losses coming by 48, 41, and 28 point margins. Marshall has a potent offense that is averaging 47.4 points per game on an incredible 7.8 yards per play this year. Knowing they need to win by big margins, laying the 28 points now with Marshall would be a prudent move by bettors.


Spread to wait on

Tennessee +17 (vs. Alabama)

This line came out with Alabama as a 16-point road favorite at Tennessee, and most sports books have already moved this game up to -17/-17.5 after early money came in on the Crimson Tide. This line will likely go higher once the public gets involved.

Alabama comes in off a 59-0 win over Texas A&M while Tennessee enters off a 34-3 blowout loss as 16-point underdogs at Mississippi. Both teams played the Rebels and lost, yet Alabama is laying more points into the Vols despite playing on the road. The value will be on the home dog in this game, especially closer to kick off.


Total to watch

Vanderbilt at Missouri

Vanderbilt and Missouri have two of the worst offenses in the country this season. The Commodores are only averaging 17.6 points per game on just 4.7 yards per play. The Tigers are only averaging 5.1 yards per play despite scoring 30.7 points per game. Those numbers are not in line with each other, and represent Missouri’s fortune of scoring on short drives, defense, and special teams.

Both teams also possess decent enough defenses to stifle the opposing offense. Vanderbilt is allowing 5.7 yards per play versus offenses averaging 6.0 yards per play. Missouri has even better numbers, allowing 4.7 yards per play versus opponents averaging 5.9 yards per play. If this total comes out at 45 or higher, there will be value with the Under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 9
By Bruce Marshall

Friday, October 24

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TROY at SOUTH ALABAMA...
The road team is 6-0 vs. line in USA games this season.

Slight to Troy, based on team trends.


SOUTH FLORIDA at CINCINNATI...
USF 6-1 vs. line as visitor for Taggart, whose WKU & Bull teams are 17-1 vs. spread last 18 as a visitor! Tuberville 2-6 vs. spread last 8 on board.

USF, based on team trends.


BYU at BOISE STATE...
Bronco Mendenhall 8-3 last 11 as dog (0-1 TY). Cougs have covered last two years vs. Boise, though BYU no covers last five in 2014.

Slight to BYU, based on series trends.


OREGON at CAL (at Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara)...
Ducks have not lost SU to Cal since 2008 and have covered 4 of last 5 meetings.

Slight to Oregon, based on series trends.



Saturday, October 25

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SOUTH CAROLINA at AUBURN...
Malzahn 1-3 vs. line last four TY but still 14-3 vs. spread last 17 on board. Tigers 8-1 vs. points last nine at Jordan-Hare. Spurrier no covers last three in series (two in 2010). Spurrier 5-3 last 8 as dog but only 1-5 vs. line first six overall in 2014.

Auburn, based on team trends.


NORTHERN ILLINOIS at EASTERN MICHIGAN...
NIU 6-0 SU and 5-1 vs. line last six vs. EMU. Huskies, however, no covers last four TY and just 3-7 last ten on board. But NIU is 10-2 as visiting chalk since 2012and EMU just 10-19 last 29 as Ypsilanti dog (1-0 TY).

NIU, based on series trends.


MISSISSIPPI STATE at KENTUCKY...
Dan Mullen is 5-0 SU and 4-1 vs. line against Kentucky. MSU now on 9-1 spread uptick last 10 since late 2013 and has covered last five away from Starkville.

MSU, based on team trends.


SYRACUSE at CLEMSON...
Dabo 5-1 vs. line last six at home, but Orange 8-4 last 12 vs. line away from home.

Slight to Cuse, based on team trends.


MINNESOTA at ILLINOIS...
Gophers 10-4 vs. spread last 14 on board since mid 2013. Kill 5-2 vs. line last seven as visitor (1-0 as visiting chalk since LY). Beckman 1-4 vs. line last five TY.

Minnesota, based on team trends.


AKRON at BALL STATE...
Cards are 3-1 vs. line as road dog but here in Muncie, Lembo is 0-3 vs. line this season.

Akron, based on recent trends.


CENTRAL MICHIGAN at BUFFALO...
CMU covers last 4 as road chalk. UB has covered last five as MAC host.

Slight to CMU, based on team trends.


OHIO at WESTERN MICHIGAN...
While WMU soars to 7-0 spread mark out of gate this season, Solich fades and only 1-5 vs. points last six in 2014. Solich 3-10 vs. line last 13 since late 2013.

WMU, based on recent trends.


BOSTON COLLEGE at WAKE FOREST...
Eagles have covered first two away from home TY.

BC, based on team trends.


TEMPLE at UCF...
Matt Rhule spotless 6-1 as road dog since LY at Temple. Ole 7-2 vs. line on road since LY.

Temple, based on team trends.


NORTH CAROLINA at VIRGINIA...
UNC has won and covered last four in series and now has covered last 2 TY. Cavs 4-9-1 last 14 as Charlottesville chalk.

UNC, based on series trends.


GEORGIA TECH at PITTSBURGH...
Jackets 2-1 vs. line on road TY and won and covered vs. Pitt LY in Atlanta.

Slight to GT, based on team trends.


MARYLAND at WISCONSIN...
Badgers no covers last three and only 1-4 vs. line last five TY. Also 1-4 vs. line last five at Camp Randall. Terps have won last 5 SU as visitor (3-0 TY).

Maryland, based on recent trends.


VANDERBILT at MISSOURI...
Dores actually covered two inflated numbers in only road games and have covered five straight away from Nashville. Mizzou only 1-2 laying DD TY.

Slight to Vandy, based on team trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at NAVY...
Mids no covers last four TY (including 51-14 win as -38 vs. VMI) but were 3-1 as home chalk LY. SJSU 4-6 vs. number last ten since late LY.

Slight to Navy, based on team trends.


UNLV at UTAH STATE...
Rebs 1-3 vs. line away TY, now 7-21-1 vs. spread on road for Hauck since 2010 (though 7-6 last 13). After four straight Ls to open season, Utags have covered last 3 and are 9-4 last 13 as Logan chalk (1-2 TY, but close non-cover vs. Wake).

Utah State, based on team trends.


UMASS at TOLEDO...
Mass has spread Ws last four and six of seven. Meanwhile, Rockets 1-5 vs. spread last six in 2014, though they are 6-2 as Glass Bowl chalk since LY.

UMass, based on recent trends.


UCLA at COLORADO...
Bruins 1-6 vs. line TY, CU 4-1 vs. mark last five TY. Buffs 7-2 vs. line in Boulder since Mike M arrived LY. Mike Mac also 8-2 last 10 as home dog with Jose and CU (3-2 with Buffs).

CU, based on recent trends.


RUTGERS at NEBRASKA...
Rutgers 11-5 last 15 as dog away from Piscataway, Flood 8-4 in role. 'Gers also 14-6 last 19 as dog overall since 2011 (3-0 TY). Bo Pelini covers last 5 TY and 6-1 in 2014, also 3-1 as home chalk TY after 3-4 mark in role in 2013.

Slight to Nebraska, based on recent Pelini marks.


KENT STATE at MIAMI-OHIO...
Miami-O no covers as chalk since 2011, no surprise with 1-23 SU mark last 24. But Chuck Martin 5-3 vs. line in RedHawk debut. KS 2-5 vs. line TY.

Slight to Miami, based on recent Kent negatives.


UAB at ARKANSAS...
Bielema 2-0 as chalk TY and 3-0 vs. line at Fayetteville, also 5-1 vs. line last 6 TY.

Slight to Arkansas, based on recent trends.


TEXAS TECH at TCU...
Red Raiders 2-9 vs. line last 11 reg.-season games. Though Tech has won and covered last two years vs. Frogs. TCU 6-0 vs. line this season, including 3-0 at Fort Worth.

TCU, based on recent trends.


MEMPHIS at SMU...
Pony-os 0-6 SU and 1-5 vs. line in disastrous 2014, never closer than 21. Tigers 7-4 last 11 vs. spread since LY and all SU wins by 21 or more this season.

Memphis, based on team trends.


OREGON STATE at STANFORD...
Tree 4-0 SU and 3-1 vs. line last four meetings. Beavers no wins or covers last three on Farm. Riley also 0-3 vs. line away TY, though he is 19-7 as visiting dog since 2008.

Slight to Stanford, based on series trends.


ALABAMA at TENNESSEE...
Vols haven't beaten Tide SU since Mike Shula days of 2006. Saban has owned last four years with big wins and covers over Dooley & Butch. Nick no covers last six away from Tuscaloosa (0-3 TY) and just 1-6 last 7 vs. spread since late 2013.

Slight to Bama, based on series trends.


MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE...
Spartans have now won and covered 6 straight and 6-0-1 last seven vs. line in series vs. Wolverines. MSU 4-1 as DD chalk TY and 6-3 vs. line last 9 at home.

MSU, based on series trends.


WYOMING at COLORADO STATE...
CSU now 18-6 vs. line last 24 on board. Bohl's Wyo no covers last four TY.

CSU, based on team trends.


OLE MISS at LSU...
Hugh Freeze now 33-11-1 vs. line since 2011 at Ark State & Ole Miss and 7-0 with Rebs this season. LSU 2-0 as rare home dog since 2010 and 5-2 in dog role since 2011.

Ole Miss, based on Hugh Freeze marks.


ARIZONA at WASHINGTON STATE...
Cougs won +11 at Tucson LY. Leach 8-3 last 11 as dog. Despite lots of hype, Cats only 3-3 vs. line in 2014 and 2-2 last 4 as visiting chalk.

Slight to WSU, based on team trends.



SOUTHERN CAL at UTAH...
Home team has covered all three meetings since Utes entered Pac in 2011. Utes 5-1 SU and vs. line after win over OSU. Whittingham 4-1 as home dog since 2012. Also 9-5 vs. line last 14 at Salt Lake City.

Utah, based on team and series home trends.


GEORGIA SOUTHERN at GEORGIA STATE...
Panthers 12-2 last 14 as DD dog.

Ga State, based on team trends.


NORTH TEXAS at RICE...
Revenge for Rice after loss at Denton LY. UNT not the same in 2014 with 2-5 spread mark and 0-3 away. Rice has covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 TY, and Bailiff 18-9 last 27 on board.

Rice, based on team trends.


LA TECH at SOUTHERN MISS...
Tech has covered last three vs. USM, which is 2-9-1 vs. number last 12 at home.

LT, based on team and series trends.


UTEP at UTSA...
UTEP now 2-8 vs. spread on road since 2013 (1-2 TY) for Kugler.

Slight to UTSA, based on UTEP road woes.


FAU at MARSHALL...
Herd is 8-0-1 vs. line at home since LY and 5-0-1 vs. line last six. Owls 12-4 last 16 as road dog.

Marshall, based on home marks.


TEXAS STATE at ULM...
Warhawks only 1-4-1 vs. line TY. ULM 2-6 vs. spread last 8 as host. Road team 5-1 vs. line in Franchione games TY.

Texas State, based on team trends.


ODU at WKU...
WKU only one cover since BGSU opener and 1-4 as home chalk since LY (0-1 TY).

Slight to ODU, based on team trends.


WEST VIRGINIA at OKLAHOMA STATE...
Revenge for Gundy after 30-21 upset loss at Holgorsen LY. Gundy 5-2 last seven in revenge. OSU 15-7-1 vs. line last 22 at Stillwater.

OSU, based on team trends.


TEXAS at KANSAS STATE...
Charlie Strong 2-2 as dog TY after 8-1 mark in role last three seasons at 'Ville. Bill Snyder has covered last six in revenge. KSU has covered last four TY and is 13-6 vs. spread last 19 at home.

K-State, based on Bill Snyder trends.


OHIO STATE at PENN STATE...
Bucks have won and covered last two in series (with Urban Meyer) and 4 of last 5 vs. Nittany. OSU 5-1 vs. line TY with four big wins and covers in row. James Franklin 12-7 as dog since 2011 with Vandy and Nittany (1-1 TY).

Slight to OSU, based on team and series trends.


ARIZONA STATE at WASHINGTON...
Todd Graham just 2-6 as dog since 2012 (1-1 TY). But Sun Devils have won and covered last seven vs. Huskies dating to 2002

ASU, based on series trends.


NEVADA at HAWAII...
Chow 4-0 vs. line at home TY (home team is 7-0 in Hawaii games vs. spread in 2014). But Pack has won last 3 SU vs. UH and has covered 4 of last 5 away from Reno.

Slight to Nevada, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tigers, Rebels renew rivalry
By Bruce Marshall

TURN BACK THE CLOCK IN BATON ROUGE

Among our favorite exercises each year at TGS are the well-received "Retrospective" pieces we run each summer in conjunction with our college football conference previews. Having been publishing since 1957, we have nearly six decades worth of memories to draw upon and catalog as we deem appropriate, and the "Retrospectives" allow us the opportunity to indulge upon the best of those recollections.

Somewhat coincidentally, the 2014 gridiron revival in the Magnolia State immediately brings to mind some of our earlier days at TGS and an era in which Johnny Vaught's Ole Miss was a constant presence near the top of the polls (as the Rebs are again this season for HC Hugh Freeze). More specifically, Saturday's renewal of hostilities vs. LSU at Baton Rouge recalls one of our favorite "Retrospectives" from this past summer when we highlighted the glory years of the history between the Rebels and the Tigers, a rivalry which once burned as bright or brighter than any in country.

For the uninitiated, Ole Miss-LSU was at one time Auburn-Alabama...and then some. And when both programs suffered bad stretches, it was the echoes of Billy Cannon's Halloween punt return and Archie "Who" that reminded everyone to keep things >uncivil. Ole Miss-LSU has always transcended the games and materialized in the mutual hate between the fans. "Go to hell LSU" and "Geaux to hell Ole Miss" are timeless greetings these supporters have for one another and will undoubtedly be dusted off for the upcoming renewal of the heated rivalry on Saturday.

Remember, between 1958 and 1965, either the Rebs or Tigers were ranked in the Top 10 every time they played. Both were ranked among the nation's top six teams five of the six times they met between 1958 and 1962. Indeed, the late '50s and early '60s were the midst of a short period of time when both LSU and Ole Miss were at the top of the college football universe, a period when Vaught and LSU HC Paul Dietzel were across the sidelines from one another.

How special was Ole Miss-LSU? Pete Finney, longtime sports columnist for the New Orleans Times-Picayune and a friend for more than five decades, began covering LSU football in 1954, and a few years ago was recounting for another article some of his memories about the glory days of the Ole Miss-LSU rivalry. "In the late '50s and early '60s, Ole Miss-LSU was by far the biggest rivalry in southern football and at least as big as anything else in the country," Finney said. "You had great teams, great coaches, great players, and they were both in the hunt for national championships and major bowls."

Much as Jimmy Ott, the longtime host (with Charles Hanagriff) of "Sports Today" on ESPN Radio Baton Rouge, and on whose show we have appeared each Friday for more than a decade, recently recalled when remembering the glory days of Ole Miss and LSU. "Back in those days," Ott told us in the summer, "Ole Miss was kind of like the Dallas Cowboys of college football."

While Ole Miss and LSU evolved into more of a regional than national rivalry over the past 50 years, the "glory era" of Rebs-Tigers effectively stretched fifteen seasons from 1958-72. Our summer SEC "Retrospective" piece detailed almost all of those matchups, including the epic Halloween night thriller at Baton Rouge in 1959 between Dietzel's top-ranked and defending national champ Tigers and Vaught's third-ranked, also unbeaten Rebels.

The 1958-59 LSU teams were among the most colorful of the TGS era, thanks to an idea Dietzel hit upon that changed his fortunes, linked to the enactment of substitution rule changes in 1953 that effectively restored football to a one-platoon game. Coaches attempted to find the best ways around the rules, but no one came up with a more effective method than Dietzel engineered in 1958, when he divided his unfancied Tigers into three units...White, Go, and Chinese Bandits, the latter a second-string defense molded primarily from underclassmen and walk-ons. The Bandits developed a feisty character and generated immense popularity; members of the unit temporarily promoted to the second string "Go" unit in place of injured players asked Dietzel to move them back to the Bandits as soon as possible. Their spirit inspired better play out of LSU's stars, including 1959 Heisman Trophy-winning back Billy Cannon.

It was Cannon who would prove the savior of the 1959 Halloween classic vs. Ole Miss. With LSU trailing 3-0 and barely 10 minutes to play, the Rebs' Jake Gibbs angled a punt away from Cannon so that he could not quite catch it. The ball bounced, but it would neatly carom into Cannon's hands at the LSU 11-yard line. And then Cannon was off on the run of the year, or the century (if you're an LSU fan, that is). Cannon weaved through and then outran the pursuit to score an 89-yard return and the TD of his life. The deafening roar in Tiger Stadium could likely have been heard in Oxford, and would partially drown out the return's final seconds of the celebrated radio call by legendary Tiger play-by-play man J.C. Politz, whose description of "the play" became a hot seller (at least in Louisiana) on "45" vinyl records of the day.

In later years, even Ole Miss HC Vaught would grudgingly acknowledge the greatness of Cannon's punt return. "Outside of the Louisiana Purchase in 1803," said Vaught, "many Cajuns consider Billy Cannon's run the greatest event in state history."

There are several footnotes to Cannon's dramatic punt return that have been mostly forgotten in college football folklore, but examined in-depth within our "Retrospective" piece. There were still ten minutes to play after Cannon's TD, and Ole Miss would use nearly all of that time in a long drive that tested LSU to the core, eventually reaching the Tiger 2 before Reb QB Doug Elmore was stopped by, among others, Cannon (also a DB) to preserve the 7-3 win. But LSU would be knocked from the top of the polls the following week when shocked 14-13 at Tennessee. And eventually there would be a Sugar Bowl rematch vs. Ole Miss, with even more hype and ballyhoo than the epic Halloween showdown. Yet few recall the rematch because the Rebs dominated and got their quick revenge in a 21-0 win. "I can't believe they agreed to play us again," Rebel HC Vaught would say 40 years later. "That was the dumbest thing anybody ever did. No way we were going to lose that game."

Those epic duels from the 1959 season were just part of the tale we told in our "Retrospective" regarding this rivalry. Hopefully, there might be another chapter to add to the rich Ole Miss-LSU tradition after Saturday's renewal at Tiger Stadium.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: South Alabama Jaguars (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS)

This week: -13.5 vs. Troy

Troy got just seven points at Appalachian State last week, but the visitors fell 53-14. For those counting, that means they were 32 points away from pushing and 33 away from covering. The Trojans, who are 1-6 overall and have five games remaining under head coach Larry Blakeney (he announced his upcoming retirement earlier this month), turned the ball over four times against the Mountaineers.

That’s not a good recipe for facing an opponent that is second best in the Sun Belt Conference in turnover margin. South Alabama should match up well against Troy in other areas, too. The Jaguars are third in the conference in scoring defense (22.3 ppg) and fourth in rushing defense (168.3 ypg). Troy is 10th in scoring offense (19.6 ppg) and eighth in rushing offense (132.4 ypg).

The line has already moved two points at most sportsbooks, with money coming in on South Alabama.

Team to beware: Ohio Bobcats (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS)

This week: +10 at Western Michigan

Ohio is coming off a 23-20 win over Akron last week, but it still has plenty of issues on its hands. One is a quarterback controversy. Derrius Vick has missed four games with a knee injury but returned to practice on Monday and could play against Western Michigan. J.D. Sprague has filled in, completing less than half of his passes (91 for 188) with 1,107 yards, three touchdowns, and three picks. Head coach Frank Solich was entirely non-committal on this week’s starter during his most recent press conference.

Penalties have also been plaguing the Bobcats. Despite getting past Akron, they were flagged 11 times for a whopping 120 yards. They committed an unbelievable 16 penalties for 156 yards in a 31-13 loss to Bowling Green on Oct. 11.

Ohio is 1-5 ATS in its last six road games and Western Michigan is 6-0 ATS in its last six overall.

Total team: Utah State Aggies (4-3 SU, 3-4 O/U)

This week: vs. UNLV

Darell Garretson (91 for 135, 1140 yards, eight TDs, three INTs) has been solid in place of former starting quarterback Chuckie Keeton, who is out for the season with a knee injury, but teams are forcing Utah State to beat them through the air. Feature running back Joe Hill is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry after going for 6.3 as a sophomore and 4.8 as a junior. The Aggies scored only 13 points in last week’s loss to Colorado State while converting a mere two of 12 third downs.

The under is 9-3 in Utah State’s last 12 overall and 6-0 in its last six conference games. The under is also 4-0 in UNLV’s last four overall and 7-2 in its last nine in the Mountain West. Four consecutive contests between the two teams have gone under the total.