Coach Fletcher’s Friday CFB Free Pick
Friday, Oct 2
4:00 pm Memphis at South Florida
The Pick #105 Memphis -8.5
Pinnacle
Memphis comes roaring into this game with a 4-0 record. They are 2-2 against the spread. They were undervalued a bit in their first 2 and overvalued in the last two. It looks like we are getting better value here. The line opened anywhere from -13 to -10.5 and it seems to have settled around 8 – 8.5. The value is there.
In their first game they were favored by 24 and destroyed Missouri State who is not a good team. Memphis won in a breeze 63-7. Missouri lost their second game to Arkansas State 70-7. Looks like it is time for the Bears to go into hibernation – the sooner the better. In that game Memphis ran for 317 yards in 60 carries and went 16-21 for 202 yards. They had zero turnovers. They held the Bears to just 125 total yards.
Game two found them against yet another terrible team – Kansas. Memphis dispatched them 55-23 in Kansas as 11.5 points chalk. The Jayhawks are 0-3 and were beaten 41-38 by South Dakota State and 27-14 by Rutgers. Memphis rushed for 281 yards in 52 carries and went 24-27 in the air for 370 yards. They had 3 turnovers. Kansas fared much better than Missouri State. They rushed for 194 yards on 46 carries and threw 18-36 for 165 yards. The offense was stronger and the defense was weaker but it is hard to measure because the game was never in doubt.
Things got tougher in game three when Memphis was only a 3.5 favorite at Bowling Green. The Tigers had a bit of trouble running the ball gaining just 155 yards on 50 carries. But the air game was good as they threw for 386 yards going 29-40. BG gained 136 yards on 29 carries and breezed for 443 in the air on 28-45 passing. As the competition warmed up, the tiger rushing offense declined as well as the defense in all areas. Their passing game remained strong. Bowling Green is no joke. They beat Purdue 35-28 and Maryland 48-27. They lost to Tennessee 59-30. They can score points and Memphis out-scored them.
Game 4 the Tigers stepped up in class again and won again. As 8 point chalk they beat Cincinnati 53-46. The defense continued to get worked, but once against the offense came through. Memphis ran for 158 in 37 carries and passed for 412 in 24-36 accuracy. The Tigers held the Bearcats to 114 yards rushing in 34 carries but was destroyed in the air for 620 yards passing, Cincy going 38-64.
The good thing is that the Memphis passing yardage has increased every week despite the rise in the class of opponents. They went 202, 370, 386 and 412. The bad thing is that the pass defense became weaker and weaker. They went 107, 165, 443 and 620. Yes, Memphis has given up 1063 yards in the air in their last two games. Obviously, the need a team with a weaker passing attack.
So, up steps South Florida. South Florida is 1-2 on the year and 2-1 against the spread. They won their first game easily against Florida A&M, 51-3 as 28 point favorites. They gained 556 yards in a very balance attack. They held Fla A&M to 12 yards rushing in 34 tries and 170 yards passing going 20-138. To say the Rattlers are a bad team is a given. After being pounded by South Florida 51-3, the Rattlers were beaten by the feared team of Samford (Not Stanford) by a 58-21 score. In their last game South Carolina State shut them out 36-0.
Game 2 saw the Bulls go up slightly in class to play Florida State. Yes, that Florida State. The Bulls stayed in the game as best they could and lost 34-14 but easily covered the plus 28. They were able to run 36 times for 149 yards but passed only 12-24 for 125. They couldn’t stop the Seminoles rushing attack giving up 278 yards in 46 carries. That’s 6 yard per carry.
Next up was Maryland. As 6 point dogs the Bulls were beaten 35-17. They were able to run against Maryland, getting 240 yards on 50 carries. However, their passing attack fizzled to just 60 yards going 10-22. That’s the kind of passing attack that Memphis wants and needs. Maryland gained 114 yards on 34 carries and passed for 297 going 21-34.
On the year Memphis gets 227.8 yards rushing and 342.5 yards per game passing. That’s 570.2 yards per game. South Florida averages 221.3 rushing and 155.3 passing (good for Memphis) and 376.2 per game. That’s a sizeable edge in offense for the Tigers.
On defense, the Tigers average giving up 120 yards rushing and 338.8 yards passing for 453.8. The Bulls give up an average of 134.7 on the ground and 210 in the air for 344.7. That looks like a nice defensive edge for South Florida.
But we’ve seen that Memphis simply outscores opponents. And it looks like they should be able to run and throw against the Bulls. South Florida has played slightly better competition but they have been beaten by that competition. In 2013 Memphis won this game 23-10 and in 2014, Memphis won 31- 20.Last year Memphis outgained the Bulls 470-396.
Memphis has scored 50 or more in 3 of 4 games. They are completing 73.5 % of their passes with 8 touchdowns and no interceptions. Anthony Miller broke out for 156 yards on 5 catches last week including an 182 yard play.
The South Florida passing attack, or lack of same, is great news for Memphis. Flowers is completing just 57.6 % of his passes and has 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. If they can’t pass they will have to rely on running back Marlon Mack to carry the load. He’s averaging 5.4 yards per carry. In fact, if they can’t throw, they may try to keep the ball on the ground to keep the Tigers’ offense off the field.
Coach’s Conclusion:
Memphis is 10-4 -1 ATS in their last 15 road games. Their last 7 have gone over. South Florida is 0-4 straight up in their last 4 games following a straight up loss. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games. All signs point to a double digit win for Memphis. They have been unstoppable on offense and simply put more points up on the board than their opponents. South Florida has nothing that resembles a strong offense, and thus they are taylor made for the Tigers.
The Pick Memphis -8.5
Pinnacle
