Friday's Tip Sheet
Memphis at Connecticut
As of late Wednesday morning, Memphis (3-1 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) was installed as a 14-point favorite with a total of 73.5 points. The Huskies were +450 on the money line (risk $100 to win $450).
Mike Norvell’s squad won its first three games vs. ULM (37-29), vs. UCLA (48-45), vs. So. Illinois (44-31). Memphis caught the Bruins in a great spot for the Tigers, who faced Jim Mora Jr.’s team at noon Eastern in the hot, muggy weather of Tennessee in mid-September. Also, with its game at UCF in Week 2 cancelled, Memphis had two weeks to prepare for UCLA. In back-and-forth shootout, the Tigers prevailed as three-point home underdogs. Riley Ferguson completed 23-of-38 passes for 398 yards and six touchdowns with only one interception. Darrell Henderson rushed 14 times for 105 yards, while Anthony Miller hauled in nine receptions for 185 yards, including TD grabs from 12 and 33 yards out.
Memphis has failed to cover the number in a pair of games as a double-digit favorite this season. Since Norvell took over for Justin Fuente prior to the 2016 campaign, the Tigers have limped to a 2-5 spread record in seven games as double-digit favorites.
Memphis took its first defeat in Orlando last week when Central Florida coasted to a 40-13 win as a 5.5-point home favorite. The Tigers took their only lead midway through the first quarter at 7-6 on a Patrick Taylor Jr. two-yard TD run. The Knights responded with 34 unanswered points until Ferguson found Damonte Cox for a meaningless 14-yard TD strike on the game’s final play. UCF enjoyed a 603-396 advantage in total offense. Ferguson completed 27-of-49 throws for 321 yards and one TD, but he was intercepted three times. Pollard had three catches for 75 yards, while Miller was held to 37 receiving yards on merely three grabs.
Memphis has one of the nation’s premier kick returners in Tony Pollard, who was the AAC Special Teams Player of the Year as a freshman in 2016. Pollard has already matched his two kickoff returns for TDs like he had last season. He also has seven catches for 131 yards and one TD.
This is Memphis’s first road ‘chalk’ spot of the season. The Tigers went 2-2 ATS as road favorites in Norvell’s first year at the helm. Meanwhile, UConn is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog.
Ferguson hasn’t been as sharp as he was in 2016 when his completing percentage was higher (63.2%), and he threw for 3,698 yards with a 32/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. In four games this year, which has included a pair of weak foes in ULM from the Sun Belt Conference and an FCS school in So. Illinois, Ferguson has connected on just 55.4 percent of his passes for 1,104 yards with a 9/5 TD-INT ratio. Miller, who had 95 receptions for 1,434 yards and 14 TDs in ’16, has 20 catches for 292 yards and three TDs. Joey Magnifico, a sophomore tight end, has 11 grabs for 152 yards and 10 TDs.
Henderson has run for a team-best 393 yards and three TDs while averaging an eye-popping 8.9 yards per carry. Patrick Taylor Jr. has added 276 rushing yards and three TDs with a 5.3 YPC average. Taylor also has seven receptions for 87 yards and one TD.
Memphis wasn’t very stout defensively in ’16, giving up 28.8 PPG. Those defensive numbers are even worse through four games in ’17. The Tigers are ranked No. 126 of 130 FBS teams in total defensive, surrendering 513.5 yards per game. They are No. 127 versus the pass, No. 100 at defending the run and No. 114 in scoring defense (36.2 PPG).
Memphis has three key players listed as ‘questionable’ with undisclosed injuries, including starting LB Curtis Akins, starting WR Phil Mayhue and Taylor. Akins missed the loss at UFC but in the first three games, he produced 23 tackles (21 solo), 1.5 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles and two passes broken up. Mayhue has 10 receptions for 123 yards and one TD, and he also completed his only pass attempt on a trick play for 18 yards. Norvell dismissed starting safety Shaun Rupert from the program before the UCF loss last week. Rupert had contributed 14 tackles (all solo), three PBU and one interception for a 36-yard return in the Tigers’ first three games.
UConn (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS) will be without two starters on offense. Junior WR Hergy Mayala is out until at least late October with an ankle injury, while junior center Ryan Crozier is done for the season with a torn ACL. Crozier started all 12 games for the Huskies in 2016. Mayala had 11 receptions for 183 yards and three TDs in UConn’s first two games, but he’s miss a second straight contest vs. Memphis.
Randy Edsall is in the first season of his second tenure at UConn after a failed five-year stay at Maryland, where his teams limped to a 23-39 record from 2011-2015. Edsall put the Huskies program on the map while going 70-63 with five postseason appearances and a 3-2 bowl record from 1999-2010.
UConn opened the year with a 27-20 non-covering win over New Hampshire as a 22-point home ‘chalk.’ Since then, Edsall’s squad has dropped three in a row both SU and ATS at Virginia (38-18), vs. East Carolina (41-38) and at SMU (49-28). UConn pulled into a 28-28 tie at SMU on the first play of the fourth quarter last week when QB Bryant Shirrefffs found Keylon Dixon on a 59-yard scoring strike. However, the Mustangs would score 21 unanswered points in the last 11:46 to garner the spread cover as 17-point home favorites. The 77 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 74.5-point total on SMU’s last TD with 4:24 remaining.
Shirreffs is playing the best football of his career in his senior campaign. He was outstanding at SMU, completing 22-of-28 passes for 408 yards and two TDs without an interception. Aaron McLean had five catches for 122 yards and one TD, while Dixon had four receptions for 84 yards and one TD.
Shireffs came into the year with a 17/14 career TD-INT ratio. Shirreffs has connected on 68.9 percent of his passes for 1,165 yards with an 8/2 TD-INT ratio. His favorite target has been RB Arkeel Newsome, who has 15 catches for 311 yards and one TD. Newsome also has a rushing TD to his credit.
UConn RB Nate Hopkins has rushed for a team-best 223 yards and five TDs with a 4.7 YPC average. Kevin Mensah has run for 167 yards and one TD while averaging 5.6 YPC.
Although UConn is ranked 12th in the nation in passing yards and 31st in total offense (467.0 YPG), it is ranked only 78th in scoring with a 27.8 PPG average. The defense has been another story altogether. The Huskies are last in the country at defending the pass, No. 127 of 130 FBS squads in total defense and No. 117 in scoring defense (37.0 PPG).
These schools have only met twice with the home team winning in blowout fashion both times. In 2013, UConn rolled to a 45-10 win as a one-point home underdog in its regular-season finale. Then in ’14, Memphis trounced the Huskies by a 41-10 count as a 21.5-point home ‘chalk.’
The ‘over’ is 3-1 overall for both schools, but the ‘under’ is 1-0 in the Tigers’ lone previous road assignment. They’ve seen their games average combined scores of 71.8 points per game. Meanwhile, UConn has seen the ‘over’ hit in its last three games, but it is just 1-1 in its home outings. The Huskies have seen their games average combined scores of 64.8 PPG.
Boise State at Brigham Young
As of late Wednesday morning, most spots had Boise State (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) listed as a nine-point favorite with a total of 44. The Cougars were +450 on the money line (risk $100 to win $450).
Boise State has a pair of home wins vs. Troy (24-13) and vs. New Mexico (28-14). The Broncos lost at Washington State and at home to Virginia before going into their open date last weekend.
Bryan Harsin’s team allowed a 31-10 lead get with less than nine minutes left in the fourth quarter of a 47-44 triple-overtime loss at still-undefeated Washington State in Week 2. Nevertheless, the Broncos covered the number as 7.5-point underdogs. With a 31-17 advantage with less than six minutes remaining, back-up QB and Kansas grad transfer Montell Cozart threw a terrible interception that turned into a 36-yard pick-six. The Cougars would pull even and force overtime with a TD at the 1:44 mark of the final stanza. Other than the pick-six, Cozart played well in relief of the injured Brett Rypien, the junior signal caller who earned first-team All-Mountain West Conference honors in his first two collegiate campaigns. Cozart completed 12-of-20 throws for 161 yards and two TDs with one interception. He also rushed for a team-high 72 yards and one TD on 14 attempts. Cedrick Wilson had nine catches for 147 yards in the losing effort.
BSU was handed its worst home loss in 16 years in its last outing two weeks ago. Virginia had dropped 20 of its past 21 road assignments and came to the smurf turf as a 14-point underdog. By early in the fourth quarter on the blue carpet, UVA had a 42-14 lead and the Broncos were finished. They added a safety and a TD in the last 2:07 to make the 42-23 final score look more respectable. After missing the win over UNM and most of three quarters at Washington State, Rypien completed 24-of-42 throws for 285 yards vs. UVA. However, he didn’t have a TD pass and was intercepted once. Wilson had 13 receptions for 209 yards and one TD.
For the season, Rypien has completed 44-of-73 passes (60.3%) for 521 yards with a 0/2 TD-INT ratio. Cozart has connected on 37-of-59 throws (62.7%) for 416 yards with a 6/1 TD-INT ratio. Cozart has also rushed for a team-best 191 yards and two TDs with a 5.3 YPC average. Wilson has 29 receptions for 485 yards and three TDs. Senior TE Jake Roh has 11 catches for 87 yards and three TDs.
Boise State owns an 11-6 spread record in 17 games as a road favorite during Harsin’s four-year tenure. Harsin’s record at BSU is 33-11, going 2-1 in bowl games.
BSU junior CB Michael Young was suspended indefinitely after his arrest for DUI two days after the loss vs. UVA. He had four tackles in a reserve role in two games played at WSU and vs. UNM.
I’ve been calling BYU (1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS) the nation’s biggest disappointment for weeks and nothing changed that notion last Friday night in Logan, where Utah State captured a 40-24 win over the Cougars as a one-point home underdog. BYU led 21-7 early in the second quarter before Jalen Davis intercepted Beau Hoge and turned it into a 30-yard pick-six. Davis would turn three interceptions into 95 return yards and two TDs before the night was over. Koy Detmer Jr. would struggle in relief of Hoge, completing only 7-of-20 passes for 91 yards with three interceptions.
Not that BYU starting QB Tanner Mangum was playing well with a 2/4 TD-INT ratio in the team’s first three games, but he is nonetheless missed desperately yet remains ‘out’ indefinitely with an ankle injury. Now Hoge, who has a 2/3 TD-INT ratio, is listed as ‘questionable’ vs. BSU due to a head injury. If Hoge can’t go Friday night, Detmer will presumably get the starting nod.
Since opening the season with a 20-6 non-covering home win over Portland State, BYU has lost four in a row with three defeats coming by margins of 16 points or more. The Cougars lost 27-0 to LSU in New Orleans in Week 2. Next, they lost back-to-back home games vs. Utah (19-13) and vs. Wisconsin (40-6). Kalani Sitake’s team had two weeks to prepare for Utah State, yet came up way short.
BYU is 0-2-1 ATS in three games as a home underdog on Sitake’s watch.
BYU has seen the ‘over’ hit in back-to-back games after the ‘under’ cashed in its first three contests. The ‘under’ is 2-1 in its three home outings. The Cougars’ five games have averaged combined scores of 39.0 PPG.
BYU is ranked No. 129 of 130 FBS teams in total offense. The Cougars are No. 126 in scoring, mustering merely 12.6 PPG. They are No. 118 in both rushing and passing offense.
Totals have been an overall wash for BSU (2-2), but the ‘over’ cashed in its lone road assignment. The Broncos’ games have averaged combined scores of 58.8 PPG, but bettors must take into account that their loss at Washington State had 29 points scored in the three extra sessions.
B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets
Washington State is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a road underdog under Mike Leach. As of Wednesday, the Cougars were short ‘dogs Saturday at Oregon. The Ducks are dealing with injuries galore, although star RB Royce Freeman was upgraded to ‘probable’ (arm injury) after practicing on Tuesday. Nevertheless, starting QB Justin Herbert (9/2 TD-INT) is ‘out’ with a collarbone injury and his back-up Taylor Allie was ‘questionable’ as of early Wednesday. Seven other Ducks were listed as ‘questionable,’ including their top two WRs Dillon Mitchell (19 catches, 220 yards & two TDs) and Charles Nelson, in addition to starting TE Jacob Breeland and safety Khalil Oliver. Furthermore, starting LB Kaulane Apelu went down with a season-ending injury last week. Apelu had recorded 20 tackles, three TFL’s and one PBU in Oregon’s first five games.
Stanford sophomore LB Sean Barton is out for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Barton had 35 tackles, two sacks and 3.5 TFL’s as a freshman in ’16. The Cardinal was favored by 5.5 points at Utah late Wednesday morning. Utah is dealing with several crucial injuries. Senior DE Kyle Fitts is ‘doubtful’ with a leg injury, while starting QB Tyler Huntley is ‘doubtful’ due to an arm injury. Fitts has contributed 11 tackles, two sacks, one forced fumble and one QB hurry. Huntley has completed 88-of-120 attempts (73.3%) for 966 yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio. He also has rushed for 208 yards and three TDs. Fortunately for the Utes, they have an experienced back-up QB in Troy Williams, who led them to a 9-4 record in 13 starts last year. Williams had a 15/8 TD-INT ratio along with five rushing scores in ’16. Thus far this season, Williams has completed only 9-of-19 throws for 131 yards. He’s rushed for 17 yards and one TD on five carries.
Darren Carrington, Utah’s grad transfer WR from Oregon, has 30 receptions for 485 yards and four TDs. The Utes own an 8-4 spread record in 12 games as home ‘dogs during Kyle Whittingham’s 13-year tenure. Meanwhile, Stanford has compiled a 17-10 ATS ledger in 27 games as a road favorite on David Shaw’s watch.
Indiana has named Peyton Ramsey as its starting QB moving forward. Ramsey has been more effective than senior Richard Lagow, who started all 13 games for IU last year. Ramsey, a redshirt freshman, has completed 60.4 percent of his passes for 316 yards with a 4/1 TD-INT ratio. He’s also run for 127 yards and one TD. The 2-2 Hoosiers are off this week before hosting Michigan on Oct. 14.
UCLA tight end Caleb Wilson is out for the season after sustaining a foot injury in last week’s 27-23 home win over Colorado. This is a huge loss for the Bruins. Wilson had 38 receptions for 490 yards and one TD in their first five games.
Eastern Michigan owns a 7-1 spread record in its last eight games as a road underdog. The Eagles are 13.5-point ‘dogs Saturday at Toledo.
