Friday 09/04/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Friday 09/04/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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FYI, let's limit the comps to the first 2 pages, I need this thread to be used for chatter and what games members would like to pick up or split. Service thread getting way to much chatter. Ty.

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NCAAF ADDITIONAL

Week 1

Trend Report

Friday, September 4

8:00 PM
TULSA vs. TULANE
Tulsa is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Tulsa is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
Tulane is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tulane is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home
 
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CFL WRITE-UP


Friday, September 4

Montreal (7-1) @ BC Lions (3-5)-- Lions are 3-0 when they score 35+ points, 0-5 when they don't- they've lost three of four home games, are 2-2 vs spread as a dog. BC is -11 in turnovers last five games, coughing ball up 17 times. Als are 3-1 on road, with 13 points closest win- they outscored last three foes 37-11 in second half. Lions gave up 393 yards on ground to Winnipeg in last game. Four of Als' last five stayed under.
 
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CFL ADDITIONAL

Trend Report

Friday, September 4

10:30 PM
MONTREAL vs. BRITISH COLUMBIA
Montreal is 3-16 ATS in its last 19 games when playing British Columbia
Montreal is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing British Columbia
British Columbia is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
British Columbia is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
 
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ChicagoSportsConnection.

For some reason I can't post on the website, so I'll do it here if that's OK.
Mods....Please erase this if it's not OK

******************
ChicagoSportsConnection.

UNDER 9.5....Boston @ Chicago(AL)....7:11 EDT

We played UNDER in Sweaty Freddy Garcia's last start and managed to squeak in a winner.
Going UNDER again here .
Big-Game Freddy is looking to solidify a spot on the 2010 roster....and the White sox have been struggling to score...not to mention that this is their first home game in a couple weeks.

They should be out of gas after yesterday's emotional 5-0 win over The Chicago Losers at Wrigley Field.

Going UNDER.

GL2us
TIN
 
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Jordan Haimowitz

NFL | Sep 04
San Francisco 49ers vs. San Diego Chargers Total
37 ov+101 at 5DIMES > 14h.
ENJOY THE Bonus Play WINNER
 
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Pure Lock

NFL | Sep 04
San Francisco 49ers vs. San Diego Chargers San Diego Chargers
-4-105 at SPBOOK > 14h.
Free NFL Play
 
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DAVE COKIN

(141) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
(142) SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
Take "(141) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS"


The reserves will see the bulk of the action tonight as the 49ers and Chargers wind up their pre-seasons. For the 49ers, #2 Alex Smith has a sprained thumb and didn't play last week and they released QB Damon Huard this week. QB Nate Davis will get most of the snaps tonight. The 49ers drafted Davis in the fifth round from Ball State, well aware of the fact he had a dyslexia-like learning disability that makes reading comprehension difficult for him. In each of the first three exhibition games, Davis was given a package of plays that required shorter calls at the line of scrimmage with a limited number of formations and motions. "But other than that, we give him the same rack of plays going into the game," OC Jimmy Raye said. "We may cut down some of the things that are a little more difficult for him to call." As for Smith, he let loose 50-60 passes with the splint removed from his injured hand on Wednesday. "It felt good. I'm ready to go," Smith said. That said, Smith will not play tonight. Hill and the first unit will play one or two series, and Davis will be under center the rest of the way. Head coach Mike Singletary is a fiery guy and this is his first preseason, as he became head coach in the middle of last season. The offensive line and the passing game have struggled at times, which could therefore be a problem against San Diego. The new-look secondary had a three-interception performance against Denver, a 17-16 win. However, they allowed 341 yards to Denver, 20 of 33 passes and 7-of-12 on third downs, and even allowed 371 yards (252 passing) in Saturday.5?s 20-13 win at Dallas as a +6 dog. The 49ers had only 36 yards over their first three drives against Dallas. They even used their version of the Wildcat formation twice to try getting something going, with little success. Davis went 10 of 15 for 132 yards and leading two scoring drives in the final quarter, bolstering his chances of sticking with the club. "It meant a lot to me," Davis said. "That's one thing I want to be on this team -- a leader." The 49ers have only one sack in three preseason games. After winning 37-20 at Chicago in Week 3 last August, the 49ers lost 20-17 at home to San Diego, turning it over 6 times! San Diego is 7-4 SU/ATS the last two-plus preseasons under Norv Turner. The preseason QB rotation has been excellent, with Philip Rivers, Billy Volek and mobile Charlie Whitehurst. Turner runs wide-open offensive attacks, even in preseason. The Chargers rolled up 384 yards (329 passing) in the opener, a 20-14 home loss to Seattle, before getting 325 yards in a 17-6 win at Arizona. Saturday they had 438 yards in a 27-24 last second loss at Atlanta. The Chargers' offense was one of just three in the league to average more than 6 yards per play in 2008. Even the backup RBs are strong with Darren Sproles and Mike Bennett. But the Chargers are not doing much preparation for this game, and Coach Turner decided to break camp one day earlier than expected, which indicates the staff just wants to get this game in the books and start playing contests that count. I'll side with the 49ers plus the points tonight.
 
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Marc Lawrence
MLB

Game: Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros Sep 4 2009 8:05PM
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

Reason: Play On: Philadelphia Phillies w/Lee over Houston w/Rodriguez
Note: The Phillies open a three-game series with the Astros when Cliff Lee takes on Wandy Rodriguez in Houston Friday night. Lee checks in off a rare loss in his last start having cashed in 8 of his last 9 team starts. In those game he has been in commanding KW form with 6 walks and 58 strikeouts. Meanwhile, Rodriguez has dropped 3 of his last 4 team starts while compiling a 5.40 ERA in those games. He's also 3-6 home in his MLB career team starts in September. Back the best road team in MLB this season with the better arm here tonight.
 
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John Fina
September 4, 2009

Selection: Los Angeles Angels -1.5 Runs (-105)

Today we see the Angels beating the Royals by at least two runs. One reason why we like the Angels in this spot is because they will be sending to the mound the starting pitcher who has been pitching a lot better as of late. This tells it all... The Los Angeles Angels Starting Pitcher (Jered Weaver) has a 2.21 ERA in his last 3 starts, while the Kansas City Royals Starting Pitcher (Gil Meche) has a 8.44 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, the Angels will have the much better starting pitcher on the mound. The Angels have proven long term success against the Royals. This is shown by the Angels being 38-14 in their last 52 meetings against the Royals. The bottom line, the Angels should have no problem beating the Royals (again) tonight! Take the Los Angeles Angels -1.5 Runs!
 
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JIM FEIST

(925) LOS ANGELES ANGELS
(926) KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Take "Under"

The Angels' offense was red hot in midseason, but they have cooled off of late. They are currently on a 6-3 run under the total. Ace Jered Weaver (13-5, 3.89 ERA) faces a week hitting Kansas City offense here. Royals righty Gil Meche is a veteran who throws strikes and is 8-3 lifetime against the Angels. Looks like a defensive duel far more than oddsmakers think. Play the Angels/Royals Under the total.
 
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Trend Report

7:05 PM
FLORIDA vs. WASHINGTON
Florida is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games when playing Florida
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Washington's last 15 games when playing Florida

7:05 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CLEVELAND
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

7:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. PITTSBURGH
St. Louis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis's last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
Pittsburgh is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

7:05 PM
TEXAS vs. BALTIMORE
Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing at home against Texas

7:07 PM
NY YANKEES vs. TORONTO
NY Yankees are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
NY Yankees are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
Toronto is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 9 games when playing NY Yankees

7:10 PM
CHI CUBS vs. NY METS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs' last 5 games
Chi Cubs are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games on the road
NY Mets are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets' last 7 games when playing Chi Cubs

7:35 PM
CINCINNATI vs. ATLANTA
Cincinnati is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Cincinnati's last 21 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Atlanta's last 21 games when playing Cincinnati

7:38 PM
DETROIT vs. TAMPA BAY
Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Detroit
Tampa Bay is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home

8:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. HOUSTON
Philadelphia is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games at home

8:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. MILWAUKEE
San Francisco is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
San Francisco is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games

8:10 PM
LA ANGELS vs. KANSAS CITY
LA Angels are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels' last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Angels
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Kansas City's last 22 games when playing LA Angels

8:11 PM
BOSTON vs. CHI WHITE SOX
Boston is 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Boston's last 10 games when playing on the road against Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox are 4-14 SU in their last 18 games when playing Boston
Chi White Sox are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games

9:10 PM
ARIZONA vs. COLORADO
Arizona is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
Colorado is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games when playing Arizona
Colorado is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Arizona

10:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. OAKLAND
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 7 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle

10:10 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. LA DODGERS
San Diego is 2-7 SU in their last 9 games when playing LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of LA Dodgers' last 13 games
 
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Hot Lines: Today's best MLB bets

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (-260, 8)

While the wild fires burn hot outside of Los Angeles, the Dodgers' offense remains ice cold.

Los Angeles is posting a .251 BA in the past week and, heading into Thursday's finale with the D-backs, has scored just 11 total runs in the past four games. Things hit rock bottom at the plate Wednesday, when the Dodgers managed a single run in a 4-1 loss to Arizona as -166 home favorites. In the first three games with the Diamondbacks, L.A. is 2-for-19 with runners in scoring position.

"Right now, everyone is aware of the fact that we haven't been producing," manager Joe Torre told the media. "They may be squeezing the bat a little too much."

That power outage has produced a 0-3-1 over/under mark in the last four games heading into Thursday. Add to that, San Diego’s basement hitting numbers and three straight under results against the Nationals this week.

Pick: Under 8


Chicago Cubs at New York Mets (+153, 8.5)

The Mets aren’t used to the role of spoiler. But they got a taste for it after defeating the Rockies Thursday afternoon. New York downed the Wild Card chasers 8-3 as big +220 road underdogs.

New York’s usual September slate has them fighting for their lives – and choking – for a playoff spot. But after a disastrous year filled with injuries to star players, the Mets can only settle for ruining others' postseason dreams.

One of those clubs with playoff aspirations are the Chicago Cubs, who sit six games out of the NL Wild Card and 10.5 games behind St. Louis in the Central. The Cubbies are coming off a 5-0 loss to the rival White Sox Thursday in which they managed just six hits and committed two errors.

The Mets got a boost from the return of third baseman David Wright this week. He led the way Thursday, driving in three runs, in a game where every starting position player registered a hit.

The last time New York faced Cubs ace Carlos Zambrano, it hung 11 hits on the hefty right-hander. Zambrano lasted only 3 1-3 innings last Sunday, leaving with three earned runs and a pitch total of 75. That was the second straight outing Zambrano struggled against New York. He was knocked around for five runs in under five innings back in September of last year.

Pick: Mets +153
 
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Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals

The way Wainwright is pitching in the second half of the year, the Cardinals could have two Cy Young contenders on their staff.

The right-hander has lead St. Louis to five straight wins in his recent starts and carries a 1.29 ERA since the break. In his most recent trip to the bump, Wainwright gave up one run through six innings, striking out seven batters, against the Nationals – on his 28th birthday.

His efforts are only outdone by teammate Chris Carpenter, who won the NL Pitcher of the Month for August with an 8-0 record and ERA just north of 2.00.

Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds

Bronson Arroyo will never stop rockin’ as long as there are games to pitch.

While the Reds are showing life in the home stretch of the season, they are still stuck in the NL Central basement. Arroyo is hoping some of those wins can come when he is on the mound. Cincy has ruined the righty’s efforts with poor run support and a feeble bullpen.

Since the All-Star break, Arroyo is just 2-4 in nine starts but boasts a 2.53 ERA. In his last three starts, the veteran pitcher is 0-1 with a 1.61 ERA. His most recent effort, a two-run, six-hit display, resulted in a 3-2 loss to the Dodgers and another no-decision for Arroyo.

Cincinnati has won four straight games heading into Friday’s game, scoring over six runs per game during this stretch.


Slumping

Roy Halladay, Toronto Blue Jays

When Roy Halladay hits the slumping side of this article, you know things are bad in Toronto. The Doctor was beat up – by Doc standards - again in his most recent outing, allowing four runs on seven hits in six innings against the Red Sox.

In his last three appearances, Halladay has an ERA just under 8.00 and has allowed four home runs. He’s also watched his command suffer during this skid, with pitch counts soaring despite only going six innings at most.

Bobby Parnell, New York Mets

Don’t blame all the Mets' woes on Parnell. You can, however, blame some of them. The right-hander has blown leads in his last three games, going 0-3 with an ERA above 15.00. In his most recent nightmare, Parnell served up eight earned runs in just over four innings, including a grand slam.

After a promising showing against the Giants in the middle of August, in which Parnell pitched a six-inning shutout while striking out seven batters, he was walked more batters than he has whiffed and has struggled to find the strike zone with pitch counts above 100 despite short showings.

But, in Parnell’s defense, the team didn’t expect him to still be pitching in the bigs at this time of year. And neither did he.
 
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The Vegas Steam Line

Free Winner for Friday:

Take SAN FRANCISCO 49ers/SAN DIEGO Chargers UNDER the total of 37
 
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Sports Gambling Hotline
We did it again last night, as Utah State plus the big number stayed inside the impost against Utah.

Now, 30-11-3 with our comp plays the last 44 days!

For Friday night, we will play the Yankees-Blue Jays game to once again go OVER the posted total.

Last night's game saw a combined 15 runs, as New York made it 3 straight, and 4 of their last 5 OVER the posted total, while Toronto climbed OVER for their second in a row, and their 3rd in their last 5 ballgames.

Both Joba Chamberlain, and Roy Halladay are a hot-mess these days, as Joba has allowed 21 runs over his last 23 innings of work, while Doc has allowed 15 runs in his last 17 innings of work.

Finally, these teams have played HIGH to a 6-2-1 tune their last 9 meetings.

The way the Yankees are mashing the ball right now, we will not at all be surprised when this game lands on the HIGH side.

Play the OVER at the Rogers Centre tonight.
4♦ OVER
 

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Robert Ferringo............anyone seen his football picks?

split if interested?
 
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Using closing line value to determine if a handicapper wins....

Closing Line Value

This is determined by taking the difference between a line on a bet/pick when it is made and comparing it to what the line is when the game starts.

Example: RAS released North Texas/Ball State Under 59.5 Wednesday at 1:40pm PST. The closing line for this game was 54. Closing line value +5.50.

This "closing line" is considered to be the most accurate line, since all available information, opinions, and money bet have been factored in to it. In general bettors with the most past success and best resources are going to win the most, and bet the most, therefore influencing the line the most. If you are consistently getting a better line than what the closing line is, you are very likely to be a long term winner, simply based on the math value of what each point is worth.

This is one method used by sportsbooks to identify "sharp" action. It is also used by professional gamblers to measure prospects of a handicapper. This is a great tool that the general public does not utilize enough when choosing a handicapper or service to follow, in contrast to short term records, misleading hype, inflated use of units, fraudulent win rates, and other deceptive marketing tactics that seem to garner so much attention and put money in the pockets of undesirable services.

Comparing 50 plays from any handicapper against the closing line will tell you a lot more about the handicapper than wins and losses from the same group of plays. When looking at small sample sizes it is difficult to determine if the record was a result of luck, variance, or skill.

Over the past 12 months, RAS has produced closing line values rarely seen by handicappers available to the public:

In 2008, RAS college football picks beat the closing line by an average of 2.65 points per pick. Sides by 1.18 points per pick, and totals by 3.39 points per pick.

In 2008-09 RAS college basketball picks beat the closing line by an average of 1.63 points per pick. Sides by 0.50 points per pick, and totals by 2.54 points per pick.

One might say that this line movement caused solely due to us releasing the play and our followers betting it. This is true to a degree, but moving the line is one thing, holding the movement until game time is another. If the line movement created a soft line in the view of the market, opposite action would come on the other side to correct it before game time, and it sometimes does.

Pros and Cons of Line Movement

Pros: If you place a bet in the morning at pick'em then check back later in the day and see it is at -2.5, not only are you very likely to be sitting on a +EV (expected value) play, but you now have the option of hedging a portion of your bet to go for a middle (bets at pk and +2.5 would both win if the game lands on 1 or 2). This added value will actually improve the odds (lower the juice) on your original bet and require a lower win rate to show profit.

Example: If you place a wager on Team A (pick'em -110) $1100 to win $1000 early in the day, then later you are able to bet Team B (pick'em +120) at $500 to win $600, you would now be risking $500 to win $500 on team A and essentially erasing the juice. Bets like this would move your break even point from 52.5% (at standard -110 juice) to a much easier 50%.

Cons: The obvious con of such line movement is that you have to place bets quickly and you may not be able to bet as much as you would like to.

I know many will see this as a plug for RAS (and it is) but I hope that many will learn about the concept of closing line value and utilize it when deciding on which handicappers to follow.

Questions and comments are welcome.


Edward
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It's very hard to get the same lines as you put out without paying very high juice. Everyone that has been around awhile knows that when your totals come out the line has already moved around 2 points. Not trying to be negative just factful. You are a standup and honest handicapper.
 

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