Friday 07/10/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Yanks]

Vegas Experts

Bonus Play

Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have won five of their last six home games against Pittsburgh. Phillies starter Joe Blanton pitched well in his lone start against the Pirates as he went seven scoreless innings on one hit. His counterpart Zach Duke has a 1-15 TSR as a road underdog of $1.25 to $1.50 and 2-13 TSR when pitching on Friday. The Phillies are in a great spot here as they are 25-7 when playing as a home favorite of $1.50 to $1.75. Go with the Phillies.

Play on: Philadelphia

 

[Yanks]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Free Pick CLE (+130) vs DET

Member Play: The Tigers are atop the Central with a 2 1/2-game lead on the White Sox. However, manager Jim Leyland is wary of his team looking ahead to next week?s four-day break for the All-Star game. "When you grind like this," Leyland told the team?s official Web site, "you look so forward to the break that you have to make sure you don?t get to the break before you get there. The mental toughness in this game is a lot more important than people think. There's a mental toughness that goes with surviving this stuff." I expect a 'letdown' here and believe there's good value on the visiting squad. Cliff Lee (4-8, 3.45) hopes for better run support when he takes the mound for Cleveland. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner is 0-2 with a 2.40 ERA in two starts against Detroit this season, getting just one total run of support. He watched Cleveland?s bats produce just two hits in a 1-0 loss on May 8, as he limited the Tigers to one run and seven hits in eight innings/expect a similar performance today.

Look for CLEVELAND to improve to 5-3 in the month of July!

 

[Yanks]

Marc Lawrence

Today’s Free Pick

Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins Jul 10, 2009 8:10PM

PICK: Minnesota Twins

REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Minnesota Twins
Note: The Twins and White Sox open a huge three game series in Minnesota tonight where Nick Blackburn matches serves against John Danks. The Pale Hose enter tonight's game with 14 losses in their last 20 games on Fridays while the Twins have come up winners in 16 of their last 21 games on Fridays. With Danks 0-2 with a 9.68 ERA in his last two starts in this park, look for Minnesota to improve to 10-1 as a host in this series here tonight.

1-unit play on Minnesota.

 

[Yanks]

The Sports Investing Professional

COMP.

Friday

Thursday Recap - Well wasn't that a peach. That game was
the exact opposite of what I thought. Petit threw 5 scoreless
for the first time all year I believe and then Florida
proceeds to score about 75 runs on the Arizona pen...I guess
I outsmarted myself on that one.


Today's Play(s) - Today I'm coming right back with what
I think is the biggest mismatch at the best price. There are
some other games that appear to be mismatched but with
Washington / Houston we've got the worst road team against
what could be argued as the N.L's hottest pitcher. In
addition, Houston's bats have come to life and no staff better
than Washington to keep them hot! We're going for a double
dip on this one....

MLB - Houston Astros -180[LISTED] Olsen / Oswalt - 900.00 / 500.00
MLB - Houston Astros -1.5 (+115)[LISTED] Olsen / Oswalt - 500.00 / 575.00


Record (11-4) + $2,650

 

[inerceptor]

Fyi tom stryker has a big 5 star going tonight

 

[Yanks]

GoodFella

Free Pick MLB RunLine BOS -1.5 (-120) vs KAN

-Lester & Bannister both must start or no action-

-Red Sox should be very focused to bounce back from the LOSS to Kansas City last night-

-Lester has a 1.83 ERA in his last 3 starts, 19 2/3 IP, 5 BB, 23 K's. Lester also has a sick 1.64 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in three career starts against KC-

- Lester vs KC at Fenway, two starts, 17 IP, ONE hit, and NO runs-

-Bannister in 7 road starts this season: 5.02 ERA and 1.54 WHIP-

-Bannister in 3 carrer starts vs Red Sox: 8.22 ERA and 1.70 WHIP....and his 2 starts at Fenway have NOT been pretty...as he's allowed 11 runs and 17 hits in just 11 1/3 IP.

 

[Yanks]

Dave Malinsky

Today’s Free Pick

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets Jul 10, 2009 7:10PM

PICK: over

REASON FOR PICK: 4* #956 NY METS/CINCINNATI Over

Struggling starters and tired bullpens are hardly the recipe for a pitcher’s duel, and that is why we were so surprised to find the 9’s left open as “win” numbers for this one. In a game in which there will be a vulnerable pitcher on the mound in every inning except for perhaps the 9th, asking each team to scratch out four runs does not make us beggars.

We are not sure that Bronson Arroyo should be pitching right now. A bout with carpal tunnel syndrome has turned his season into a mess, and the Reds have already stated the off-season surgery is in the cards. So why wait? Although cortisone shots have eased the pain a bit his game is a disaster right now, with an 0-3/10.29 over his last three starts that has actually been even worse than those baseline numbers. He allowed six home runs in only 14 innings in that span, with far more walks (9) than strikeouts (6), and a stratospheric 2.71 WHIP does not fully translate to the ERA column because there were a couple of unearned tallies that do not show up. There just is not any reason to believe that he turns around here, and with the Cincinnati starters only lasting 22 innings over the last five games a tired bullpen may reach overload. This will also be the second look for the Mets at him this season, and Arroyo has worked to an awful 8.85 over four second-look outings so far.

Fernando Nieve’s 3-2/2.73 helps to bring a low price here but that is not who he is. Like many call-ups he had an adrenaline rush through a few starts, which led to a couple of solid performances, but now that has worn off, and opposing teams also have scouting reports. As such he has lasted only nine innings over his last two starts, allowing six runs on 17 hits, with an ugly ratio of seven walks vs. only four strikeouts, and you can see part of where this bargain line comes from in that distribution – if you allow 17 hits and seven walks over nine frames, but only six runs scored, you have cashed a lottery ticket. Nieve is not a candidate to go deeply into a game even when his limited stuff is on, and that is bad news for the Met bullpen, after the starters could only generate 12 of the 27 innings in the series vs. the Dodgers.

4* NY METS/CINCINNATI Over

 

[Yanks]

Jeff Alexander

Bonus Play for July 10, 2009

St Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs +120

The Cubs are 25-16 at home this season, 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning record, 4-1 in their last 5 home games against the Cards. In other words, a hungry Cubs team looking to bounce back from back-to-back home losses to the Braves is showing excellent value at this price this afternoon. Expect to see Harden's best start of the season today as he bounces back from his worst. The Cubs are 9-4 in Harden's last 13 home starts, 9-3 in his last 12 starts vs. National League Central, 5-0 in his last 5 starts in game 1 of a series. The Cards send their ace Chris Carpenter to the mound, but he hasn't been on top of his game; just 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA over his last 3 starts. Plus, the Cardinals are 1-4 in Carpenter's last 5 road starts vs. Cubs and just 3-7 in his last 10 starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150. We'll back the Cubs for a unit showing solid value this afternoon.

1 Unit on Chicago Cubs +120

 

[Yanks]

Dave Price

Bonus Play for 7/10/09

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers +125

The Brewers have been struggling of late, but I like their bats in this bounce back spot against the Dodgers' Billingsley who has had some rough outings here recently. The Dodgers have lost 2 of his last 3 starts, in which he has posted an ERA of 4.57. Plus, the Dodgers are 0-4 in Billingsley's last 4 Friday starts. Looper has been dealing for the Brew Crew as Milwaukee is 7-3 in his 10 home starts this season. And they have won each of his last 3 starts and he has posted an ERA of 2.95 in those games. In fact, the Brewers are 5-0 in Looper's last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record and 4-1 in his last 5 starts as an underdog.
Bet the Beer Makers.

1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers +125

 

[jordan17]

Sportsmemo Friday Card and it appears plenty of their plays are underdogs today:

TSC - Tim Trushel 20* MLB Underdog GOM (23-7 +30.6 20* Run) - $29
The 20*s just keep on cashing! TSCs red hot 20* run has amassed +30.6 units of profit at a 23-7, which also includes a current 7-0 streak. You can't afford to miss today's 20* Underdog Game of the Month. $29 and it wins or his next play is free.

@)

 

[Yanks]

Jamie Tursini

Bonus Play

St Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs

St Louis Cardinals -110

Have to love the small road favorite here.

C.Carpenter has a road ERA of 2.26, with a WHIP of 0.79!

In daytime starts he's incredible.
3-1 with an ERA of 1.23, having allowed only 15 hits and 5 BB's in 36.2 innings! Having struck out 33 leading to a WHIP of only 0.55.

R.Harden has dtruggled big time.

At home he's 2-4 with a WHIP of 1.67, and an ERA of 7.65.

In daytime starts he's been hit big time as well.
1-4 with a WHIP of 1.70, and an ERA of 7.41.

Too big of an advantage to not lay this price.

 

[Yanks]

Jeff Benton

Complimentary Selection

Tough free-play loss with the Rangers on Thursday. I’ll bounce back Friday by turning to afternoon action in the Friendly Confines and backing the Cardinals against the Cubs.


More than anything, this play is about St. Louis ace Chris Carpenter. Get a load of some of these numbers: Carpenter is 6-3 with a 2.32 ERA overall, 3-2 with a 2.26 ERA on the road, 3-1 with a 1.23 ERA in day games and he has produced eight quality starts in his last nine trips to the mound. Oh, and he’s 8-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 15 career starts against the Cubs, including a 2-1 home win back on May 20. And he’s given up two earned runs or fewer in four of his last six starts in Wrigley Field.


Now take a look at some numbers from Cubs starter Rich Harden. He’s 5-5 with a 5.35 ERA overall, 2-4 with a 7.65 ERA at Wrigley and 1-4 with a 7.41 ERA in eight daytime outings, including Saturday’s ugly 11-2 loss to the Brewers in which Harden surrendered seven runs on eight hits in just two innings of work!


Lastly, the Cubs are once again struggling to score runs. They managed single runs in home losses to the Braves on Tuesday and Wednesday, and they’ve score two runs or fewer in four of their last six games and five of their last nine. Taking it a step further, going back to May 19 – the start of a three-game series in St. Louis when they get swept by scores of 3-0, 2-1 and 3-1 – the Cubs have produced three runs or fewer in 26 of their last 46 games.


Bottom line: This weak Chicago offense isn’t hitting Carpenter today, nor is Harden going to contain Pujols and the St. Louis sluggers. Lay the chalk with the visitors, who are 5-1 in the last six series meetings with Chicago and 80-34 in Carpenter’s last 114 starts, including 39-16 in his last 55 outings against N.L. Central foes.

(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)

7♦ ST. LOUIS

 

[Yanks]

Scott Delaney

Today's Complimentary Selection

I am on a 29-18-1 run with complimentary releases after scoring with the Rays in their AL East clash with Toronto yesterday; today we're taking the National League-leading Dodgers on the road in Milwaukee.


Chad Billingsley is now 0-1 in his last four starts, despite pitching well enough to win in three of those starts. He comes in after letting a fourth chance at a 10th victory slip away when he took a two-hitter into the ninth inning in San Diego. Unfortunately for him, by the time fellow All-Star hurler Jonathan Broxton got the third out, a five-run lead had been blown.


But with Los Angeles bringing baseball’s best record into Milwaukee, where it makes its last stop on a nine-game tour before the Midsummer Classic, I don’t think getting a win here will be an issue. The Dodgers are 4-2 on this excursion after crushing the Mets 11-2 last night, and brings into this series win streaks of 5-0 in series openers, 5-1 against right-handed starters and 4-1 on the road against teams with a winning record.


More importantly, and even more relevant, against the Brewers the Dodgers hold a 35-17 advantage the last 52 meetings. And with Billingsley toting a 2-0 lifetime mark against Milwaukee, not to mention a 3-1 mark on the road with a 2.92 ERA, I love our chances tonight.

2♦ L.A. DODGERS (WITH Billingsley)

 

[Yanks]

Trace Adams

FRIDAY'S COMP PLAY

Minnesota Twins

 

[Yanks]

Matt Rivers

Complimentary Play

For Friday take the Yankees out West.


Love it or hate it Arod and the Yankees are playing some darn good ball right now. To go into Minnesota and sweep a Twins team that always performs well in the Metrodome was extremely impressive.


Joe Girardi's club has really come into its own right unlike the Angels who definitely had a good month of June but after watching Vlad Guerrero go down and losing the final two games at home to Texas I am of the belief that Mike Scioscia's team is just not that good this season. Brian Fuentes does have a lot of saves but he has also been very mediocre overall as he has blown a bunch of saves. This bullpen is not what it used to be and the offense, as always, is not all that powerful and has to rely on small ball and especially if Guerrero is not healthy.


Joba Chamberlain is very good. He has been getting hit a bit and therefore his numbers are not all that. But all in all right now the Yankee righty is better than a guy in Joe Saunders who just got pounded in his last two starts allowing 13 earned runs in 13 innings of work.


Anaheim has always been a House of Horrors for these New Yorkers but all in all it's still just a bit too cheap here to pass up on the red hot Bronx Bombers.

2♦ Yankees (out of 5♦)

 

[Yanks]

Tony Weston

Today's Complimentary Selection

We’re headed out to Wrigley where we’re taking the Cubs at home against NL Central rival St. Louis.

The Cubs come into today’s game having won 5 of their last 8 games overall and 7 of their last 10 at home.

Now they battle a Cardinals team that’s only playing .500 ball its last 8 games on the road, having gone 4-4 away from St. Louis. Not only that, but when playing in Chicago the Cardinals have had their share of struggles.

Going back to last season, the Cubs are just 1-4 their last 5 in the Windy City. Also, St. Louis has picked up just one win in Chicago over Chris Carpenter’s last 5 starts at the Cubs.

On the other side, the Cubs are 7-4 in scheduled starter Rich Harden’s last 11 starts and have won 9 of Harden’s last 12 starts against the NL Central. Also, in Harden’s only appearance against the Cards this season, he allowed only 2 earned runs in 6 innings of work as Chicago cruised to a 10-3 win.

The Cubs will do it again with Harden on the mound as they take it to their NL Central rival. Take Chicago at home in this matinee.

3♦ CUBS (on a 1♦ - 5♦ Scale)

 

[Yanks]

Dominic Fazzini

Complimentary Selection

The Dodgers came through easily against the Mets in my complimentary play Thursday. Time to make it two straight as we go with Houston to roll over Washington today!

Astros ace Roy Oswalt (5-4, 3.81 ERA) is starting to look like his old self.

The two-time 20-game winner is 3-1 with a 2.13 ERA over his last five starts. The right-hander allowed one run on three hits in eight innings Sunday at San Francisco in his last outing.

I don’t see him having many problems today against the Nationals. Oswalt is 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA in 11 career games (nine starts) vs. Washington.

Nationals left-hander Scott Olsen (2-4, 6.04) came within one out of his first career complete game Sunday against Atlanta, allowing three runs on eight hits in Washington’s 5-3 victory.

That said, Olsen has been horrible on the road this season, going 1-3 with a 6.68 ERA in six starts.

Opposing batters are hitting .315 (74-for-235) with nine homers vs. Olsen this season, and right-handers are hitting .322 (59-for-183) with six homers against him.

With Houston’s lineup being stacked with right-handed bats, Olsen might not last too long in this one. And with Oswalt on the mound for the Astros, it might be a quiet night for the Nationals’ lineup. Go with the Astros on the run line in this one.

(Based on a 1♦ to 5♦ scale)

3♦ HOUSTON -1 1/2 runs

 

[Yanks]

GREG SHAKER

Bonus Play

Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox

Play: RedSox -1.5

Yes I know, it is the dreaded runline play and I just don't play these unless the conditions are right. I think that they are for tonight's contest. How often do the RredSox lose two straight games at home? How often would they do so to the KC Royals? Not very often and there are plenty of reasons to believe that they will bounceback very strong this evening. Surely we all remember May 18th 2008. It was the last time that Lester faced these Royals. It was a NO-HITTER! He has had other quality outings throwing at this team and he is smoking right now. He is 4-1 with a 1.74 ERA in his last seven starts, striking out 61 in 46 2/3 innings. He does know how to be the prohibitive favorite and especially right here at Fenway where his team is 9-0 the last 9 times he has thrown as a -200 favorite or higher. Speaking of Fenway, Bannister does not like this park at all. He has thrown 11.1 Innings here, allowing 11 runs, and 4 Dingers. He has yet to be the RedSox and he will be facing a team that should be breathing smoke following their less than stellar performance last night. Even with the win last night, KC remains a poor road proposition, they have a very poor bullpen and we do not. We are the RedSox. We are pissed! We will hit, we will field, we will spit. We will win and we will win going away.

We are the RedSox.

 

[Tiznow214]

Pm me if anyone is interested in getting the doctors today (4-1 wed and 5-0 yesterday) thanks

 

[Yanks]

Nelly

Bonus Play

Oakland + over Tampa Bay

Coming off a big series sweep at home against Toronto including an extra-innings game and two one run wins the Rays could face a letdown with Oakland coming to town. The A's offense has improved considerably and is batting .289 over the last ten games compared with a just a .235 team average for the Rays in that span. This will be the third city on a tough road trip for Oakland but Oakland has faced Jeff Niemann before and should find ways to put runs on the board. Niemann has been inconsistent although successful for the Rays as he often exits games early with high pitch counts. Niemann's ERA is higher at home and his season WHIP of 1.43 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate to have such a solid record. He beat the A's earlier this season but allowed eight hits in that game. Vin Mazzaro is a highly regarded prospect that has posted very respectable numbers to start his career. Mazzaro has allowed three or fewer runs in five of his seven starts and he has an over 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Pitching on the road has not been a problem for Mazzaro and he should have success against a Tampa lineup that has never faced him. Oakland has been hitting better and should have an edge on the mound creating an attractive underdog play for Friday night in a clear letdown spot for the Rays after beating Roy Halladay on Thursday.