Larry Ness
Jul 06 '18, 7:10 PM in 6h
MLB | Rays vs Mets
Play on: Mets -159 at GTBets
My Bonus Play is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The Mets opened the season 11-1 but as I have often noted, New York is just 23-48 since that blazing start and its .324 winning percentage during that stretch puts them in a class with MLB's two-biggest season-long losers, Baltimore (.279) and Kansas City (.291). The Mets kick off a 10-game homestand tonight with the first of three against the Tampa Bays Rays, a stretch that will take them into the All-Star break. However, home has not been where the heart is in 2018, as the Mets have dropped 15 of their last 17 games at Citi Field. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay had used an impressive 8-1 homestand to climb above .500 at 42-41, before opening its six-game road trip by dropping two of three in Miami. The Rays come to Queens at 43-43 but in the AL East, that leaves them 15 games back of first-place Boston and 14 games back of the NY Yankees. Both teams were off Thursday, although each is headed in a different direction.
The Rays' lone win in Miami (Monday) took 16 innings and taxed its pitching staff. The Rays have become one of baseball's most pleasant surprises since implementing an unusual wrinkle into their starting rotation. Tampa Bay has the lowest ERA in the majors (2.81) since May 19 when it began utilizing an "opener" instead of a traditional starting pitcher in select games. The Rays have allowed three runs or fewer 25 times in the subsequent 43 games, 23 of which have been started by relief pitchers typically pitching three innings or fewer. Ryne Stanek (1-2, 1.98 ERA) will make his 10th start, by far the most among openers. He has a 1.42 ERA as a starter but has pitched longer than 1 2/3 innings just once.
The frustration continues to bubble over for the New York Mets and no one is feeling it more than ace pitcher Jacob deGrom (5-4, 1.84 ERA), who will take the mound in the opener of a three-game series. Despite leading the major leagues in ERA (1.84) plus a 1.02 WHIP and .208 BAA, deGrom has won only once in his last eight starts. He opened 3-0 through April 30 (team went 4-2) but the Mets are just 2-9 over his last 11 starts, leaving him 6-11, minus-$848 vs the moneyline.
The bottom line is this, deGrom has a 1.42 ERA over his last 13 starts, during which the Mets have gone 3-10. Can that kind of hard luck continue? He has made eight home starts, posting a 1.90 ERA and .199 batting average against. I'll also note that the Rays are just 4-5 in Stanek "openers." I'll take the Mets.
Good luck...Larry