Fri, Sat, and Sun in Germany and Austria (w. a few others thrown in)

[deutscher]

Matches everywhere, and quite a few good choices to be had - so many, in fact, that I will concentrate primarily on Germany and Austria, with a couple thrown in in England, and one for Friday in Holland.

First, however, a change in staking rules: I have separated my picks into the ones I love, which get a full unit, and the ones I only like, which get half a unit. Amongst the 'likes', there will be a few contrarian picks, where I disagree with the line. These are inherently very risky, but will be clearly labelled as contrarian. The odds given are from Pinnacle.

Let's dive right in then, with 3 matches for today:

In Germany's Regionalliga Nord, the Dortmund amateurs host Holstein Kiel. While it may appear that Kiel has started to click, based on their thumping of Bielefeld (A) mid-week, I remain unconvinced. Dortmund, except for a major slip-up away to Uerdingen, have started very strongly, and I see them having enough to get past Kiel at home here today. The odds of 2.00 are a bonus - I would have taken lower odds. Full unit for me, thank you.

In the Dutch 2nd division, TOP Oss host Maastricht VV. This ought to be a mis-match; last season, the final was 7-0 in this same match. MVV were very poor last season, and I can't see great improvement, while TOP again look like a class above today's opponent. Getting the -0.5 and -1 for 1.833 seems a very nice deal, and a full unit is on TOP Oss.

Today's contrarian pick is RW Erfurt away to RW Essen. Erfurt have made a nice start to their 2. Bundesliga campaign with an away win and a home draw, while Essen were thumped at home and drew away. Both are new to this league, so did not face each other recently, but I like Erfurt to keep this match close, if not to sneak away with a win. I am taking the pk and +0.5 at 1.98 on Erfurt for half a unit.

I have already booked my Saturday matches, and will discuss these in a separate post under this thread.

Goooooooood luck!

 

[deutscher]

Moving on to Saturday, where I have picked a ream of matches. Only two get the 'loooove it' mark and a full unit, the rest get half a unit.

The 2 majors are both in Germany's Regionalliga Nord: Luebeck host the amateurs of Hertha BSC Berlin. Luebeck have 2 home wins, without goal against, while Hertha have 2 away losses, having conceded 8 to 4 scored. Luebeck came down from the 2. Bundesliga, and look like they are getting comfortable, especially so at home. This should be a home win, and even at odds of 1.50, this is worth it. Luebeck for a full unit, thank you.

Similar story in the other match, where the Werder Bremen amateurs host their counterparts from Wolfsburg. Werder have made a solid start, excepting the mid-week defeat to a strong Braunschweig, while Wolfsburg have been mediocre, and poor away. While there is a some risk of a draw, I like Werder to take all 3 points. The odds are just a bit short at 1.526, but enough to still put the full unit on Werder (A).

Then I have two contrarian picks, still in the same division: I like Uerdingen to take all 3 points in Chemnitz, and Fortuna Duesseldorf to take all 3 in Wuppertal. Both Uerdingen and Fortuna have made decent starts, while Chemnitz and Wuppertal are in disarray. The draw, especially the 0-0 draw, is a real danger here, but at odds of 2.95 and 3.05, respectively, these are worthy half-unit flutters.


On to the Bundesliga: All half-unit wagers here, except for VfB Stuttgart visiting Kaiserslautern, where I see my VfB taking all 3 points in style. 1. FCK have started very poorly, losing at home to Nuernberg, then losing in Schalke. VfB thumped Mainz, then took a point in Nuernberg, playing with 10 men for 50 minutes. The missing man, Cacau, will be ably replaced by Imre Szabics up front. The handicap of pk and -0.5 is generous at 2.01, and I think VfB have enough to get all 3 here. Note that I am a VfB fan.

The other non-contrarian flutter is on Freiburg to beat Gladbach at home. Last season the score was 4-1. Freiburg have drawn at home and won away, while Gladbach managed just a point in Bielefeld before falling at home to Dortmund. Freiburg for half a unit in the -0.5 at 2.21 - nice odds indeed.

I have 3 contrarian looks, where I think the line overrates the home side. In 2 of the 3 the home sides are struggling, and even if they win, I see close matches. So - half units on these 3:

Nuernberg +0.5 and +1 in Hamburg at 1.855
Rostock +1 and +1.5 in Schalke (where they won last season) at 1.98
Mainz +1 and +1.5 in Berlin at 1.84


Two each in England and Austria to round out Saturday's mix:

I like Villa not to lose to Newcastle at home, who are not playing well, so I like the pk at 1.855. One division lower, I think Wigan can get at least a point in Sunderland, so the pk at 2.10 here. Half units here for me.

In Austria, I think Admira can manage at least a draw against GAK, and the pk and +0.5 at 2.05 looks good to me. Sturm Graz ought to walk over Bregenz, who are completely out-of-sorts, and I have taken the -1 at 1.781 - both for half units.

I have some leans for Sunday, but won't book them until after the Saturday slate is clean, and may not get to post.


Goooooooooooooooooooooood luck!

 

[chriscol]

To your german matches on friday...your write up on dortmund / Kiel is right, but my conclusion out of that is that this is a no play...you have no clue what these teams are going to do at the moment. they beat everybody and loose to everybody. its like a coin flip IMO.
Erfurt / Essen i disagree..line is right IMO. They are both new, both settled down after 2 games and i see not much difference betwenn them. for tonight only home advantage to essen.

But anyway good luck tonight. i'll look at saturday later

 

[deutscher]

chris - I appreciate your input. I think Dortmund may have enough today, and I am hoping for a dreary draw in Essen.

Goooood luck!

 

[deutscher]

chris - Looks like a good call by you on Kiel

. They're off the list of teams to go against for now......

 

[X-Files]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by deutscher:


The 2 majors are both in Germany's Regionalliga Nord: Luebeck host the amateurs of Hertha BSC Berlin. Luebeck have 2 home wins, without goal against, while Hertha have 2 away losses, having conceded 8 to 4 scored. Luebeck came down from the 2. Bundesliga, and look like they are getting comfortable, especially so at home. This should be a home win, and even at odds of 1.50, this is worth it. Luebeck for a full unit, thank you.

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Now at Pinnacle:

Lubeck -168
Hertha-A +329

 

[X-Files]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by deutscher:

Similar story in the other match, where the Werder Bremen amateurs host their counterparts from Wolfsburg. Werder have made a solid start, excepting the mid-week defeat to a strong Braunschweig, while Wolfsburg have been mediocre, and poor away. While there is a some risk of a draw, I like Werder to take all 3 points. The odds are just a bit short at 1.526, but enough to still put the full unit on Werder (A).

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Werder Am. -157