<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Journeyman:
I tried to warn him once with the Nets/76ers,lol....If you do it enough it will get ya.... !<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Journeyman,
The Nets NEVER lost sole possession of first place. Not for even 1 second did they EVER fall out of first place. The -700 or so that I paid for that play was very well worth it. It cracks me up how everyone acts like 1 loss playing at -700 or even -1600 will be the end of the world. Yes I agree, if I play -700 and -1600 plays for the rest of my life, I will lose a few. So what ?. I can lose 10 % of my -700 plays and make a great living. There was no way in the world that the Nets had 10% chance of losing that division that year and even though the Sixers made it interesting, they never stood a real chance of winning that division.
The real irony here is that the common thinking amongst gamblers is that plays in the neighborhood of -700 are bad plays because when you lose you will lose 7 times what you stood to win. In reality, these are the ONLY real value plays.
#1. Parlays and Teasers pay lesser odds than they should.
#2. Truth be told, very few if any of us can hit 53 % of our straight plays over the long haul.
#3. Playing long shots do not pay near what they really should. Even taking the Bears to win the SuperBowl will only get you about 300 to 1. What are the true odds of this happening ? about 50,000 to 1 ?
#4. My position is that playing big favs in the neighborhood of -700 up to -2000 will WIN you money in the long run. ( assuming you play them wisely) By the way, I would estimate that I have posted about 20 plays that were -700 or higher - I have WON --- EVERY ONE of them.
Note - Anyone who thinks I am wrong and would like to let me lay -1600 on every team who enters the 4th quarter up 24 points for the rest of the NFL season, I will take it.