HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Pittsburgh +1.40 over CINCINNATI
The Pirates held their own against the AL and it’s not like they were facing a bunch of AL bottom feeders. The Pirates played the Yanks, Tampa, the White Sox, Baltimore and the Blue Jays and that’s about as tough an AL group as any team faced. They split their last eight games against Tampa, the Yanks and Toronto and what they do that the Reds can’t is score runs. In fact, only the Phillies, Rangers, BoSox and Cubbies have scored more runs then Pittsburgh. The Pirates will face Aaron Harang here and it would appear that the wear and tear of pitching at Great American Ballpark has caught up to Harang. Harang has gone 1-4 with a 7.36 ERA in his last six starts and the last time he faced Pittsburgh in May he lasted just four innings and surrendered 10 hits and six runs. Offensively, the Reds line-up is a weak one and even though they play half their games at one of the best hitter’s park in the majors, they’re still among the bottom in many key offensive categories, including team batting average (.246) and on base percentage (.324). Paul Maholm has been very sharp recently, going 3-0 with a 3.15 ERA over his last five starts and no matter how you break it down the Pirates offer up some good value here. Play: Pittsburgh +1.40 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>CHICAGO –1½ +1.36 over Cleveland
The Indians are sinking fast and there really is no end in sight. They’re banged up, they have no confidence whatsoever and they scratch and claw for every run they get. Not only have they lost five of their last seven but they lost to San Fran and Cincinnati and prior to taking two of three from the Dodgers they were swept by Colorado. So, to sum it up, the Indians were getting beat up by the brutal NL West. Can things possibly get worse? Yes, and there about to because the Indians will now take a huge step up in class when they face the South Side. Jeremy Sowers has yet to win in seven starts. He’s 0-3 with a 5.97 ERA and has allowed 47 hits in 31 innings and he’s also been tagged for six jacks over that stretch. On the road his BAA is .349 to go along with a 6.60 ERA. Meanwhile, the White Sox continue to roll. They’re coming off a sweep of the Cubbies and they’ve also won six of seven against the Tribe this year. Gavin Floyd has some tremendous numbers, which includes a 5-1 record at home with a 2.70 ERA. Floyd seldom walks anyone, as his 14 walks in 85 innings will attest to. He’s surrendered just 72 hits in those 95 frames and it would actually be shocking to see anything but an easy win for the home side here. Play: Chicago –1½ +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>Oakland +1.17 over L.A. ANGELS
Jon Garland continues to defy logic, as he’s really a very average pitcher and that might be a bit of a stretch too. In 101 innings he’s walked 36 and struck out 41, which is a true indication that the hitters are seeing the ball very well against him. He’s allowed 111 hits and his BAA is .285. The good news for the A’s here is that they’ll get Eric Chavez and Ryan Sweeney back in the line-up and that can’t hurt an offense that is struggling to score runs. In two starts vs the A’s this season Garland is 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA. The Angels return home from a nine game trip and over the weekend they scored one run in three games against the Dodgers. Greg Smith is 4-6 with a 3.69 ERA but definitely deserves better. Smith is the victim of a lack of run support, as the A’s have scored just 14 times over his last 11 starts. However, chances are good they’ll score some runs tonight because Jon Garland is very vulnerable indeed and at this level you just can’t keep getting away with average stuff for an extended period of time and that’s precisely what garland offers up. Play: Oakland +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
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></o>Kansas City –1.02 over BALTIMORE
Brian Buress is a guy that the Orioles are running out of patience with. He can’t relieve, he’s been totally ineffective as a starter and his next ticket will be to the minors. At home he has an ERA of 6.75 to go along with a .327 BAA. In four June starts his ERA was 8.57 after giving up 35 hits and 20 runs in 21 innings. His BAA against in June was a whopping .376. Burres is also a lefty and the Royals are a much better club against southpaws and in fact, they’re 13-12 this season against left-handed starters. Meanwhile, Zack Greinke is as tricky as he is good. He features an assortment of pitches and can change speeds with the best of them. He has a 7-4 record and a very respectable 3.40 ERA. Greinke also has 84 k’s against just 33 walks in 106 innings of work. Furthermore, the Royals had won 11 of 12 games after they beat the Cards on Friday night before losing the last two games of that series. However, they’ve won six in a row on the road and the fact that Burres is favored over Greinke is just plain incorrect. Play: Kansas City –1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
