Outrights YTD: 11-133 (-29.12*)
Matchups YTD: 1-4 (-3.83*)
I felt my capping efforts and my betting discipline had stayed fairly unruffled through the season as my disappointing weekends kept stacking up. But two straight winning Sundays have put a bounce in my step and given my season a much different feel, although the grind will return soon enough. Regardless, the Majors have been better than most for me over the years, so I can definitely live with a few too many plays for the sketchy conditions.
The Masters:
Outrights:
Xander Schauffele(22/1) e.w.
- - I’ve been seeing only a positive turn off Xander’s season opening back issues, and being on my watch list heading into the Match Play, he proceeded to tick the right boxes. His second best ever finish at his hometown Farmers event was of a piece. Being paired with Tiger is not a twist that leaves me jumping up and down, but since I sense Xander’s resilience is in a good spot for dealing with likely weather interruptions and mud balls and such, it is possible he draws inspiration from the pairing. Missing the cut here last year (which is also the case for Rose and Spieth) is an intangible I rate as a motivating circumstance at a place where course history matters (although I see that angle might be a money burning proposition at Augusta if 24 of the last 25 winners made the cut the year before). IMO his strength at dialing in flighted iron shots to pin high or to feed off slopes is in contrast to Rory’s swings that fire lasers that never leave the pin but are way off the mark from also being flighted for distance. The still twenty-something has no shortage of contending chances and even a few scalps in the biggest events, and I think being under the radar only helps his chances at bagging the major needed on his resume.
Justin Rose(55/1) e.w.
- - I was totally off Rose for at least two full years since Covid, especially exercising the discipline to stay away if the question was whether the forty-something would sustain and build on a hint of something exceptional in a prior outing. But I got an entirely different vibe about his game and his intangibles in this Ryder Cup year from watching his very brief on camera interview during the American Express coverage, and after playing him at 55/1 at Farmers, I was kicking myself twice for not riding with him at the start of Pebble Beach and then not jumping on him in-running before his Saturday 65. In the old days before so many e.w. places I would have made a futures play on Rose for the Masters back in January, and I’ve liked what I’ve seen since, up to and including his pass on the Match Play. If I could only have two plays this week, they would be Xander and Rose.
Jordan Spieth(16/1) e.w.
- - I think the chances of Spieth bagging this Masters are quite a bit more likely than the chances of Jason Day crossing the line.
Corey Conners(45/1) e.w.
- - This was definitely slotted as my 66/1 or even 80/1 longshot for the Masters. But then I went to capping Valero, and I concluded there was a good chance Conners was ready to pop early, so much so that he became my #1 play last week. No complaints now with his popping early, and now it’s become a happy situation where I rarely ever pick up a winning marker.
Brooks Koepka(40/1) e.w.
- - Link: https://www.golfmagic.com/liv-golf/report-liv-golfs-100m-man-brooks-koepka-has-buyers-remorse
- - Two weeks ago before the LIV event in Tucson, my eyes were squarely on Koepka as likely being my one and only choice of LIV players for the Masters, and that choice really wasn’t needing the attractive 66/1 odds that were looking to be available. But exactly like Conners, I was very much looking at Koepka popping a week early in Orlando, with the one big difference being I would not have bet a dime on anything having to do with the fucking LIV Tour even if someone else staked me to the dime. Koepka did pop early, and I’m left with only getting 40/1 on the LIV bastard. As much as I like picking winners in the major championships, I will not be pulling for Koepka on Sunday against about 95% of the non-LIV options. Gratuitously adding I am now so, so, so glad that Greg Norman pissed away all his chances to win the Masters and I won’t forever see his smug face on the grounds as a former champion until his corpse is rotting.
Collin Morikawa(25/1) e.w.
- - Had my eye on this guy for this spot ever since the 2023 lid lifter at Kapalua, and win or lose at that event would have offered reasons to solidify that opinion, and his play in the months since has never given me reason to question keeping him on my short list. I would prefer him if Augusta was playing hard and fast instead of long and soft, but maybe I’m proven wrong about that.
Sungjae Im(33/1) e.w.
- - Even if I don’t get a sense he’s the winner, I can’t deny I’ve seen something that appeals from his prior play at Augusta, and therefore see some bit of value in this play.
Jason Day(25/1) e.w.
- - I’ve been tracking him from Day 1 this year, and making multiple outright plays on him this season, and have almost certainly been tracking more of his holes and shots on the leaderboards than any other player this year. What I keep seeing are a few too many wildly loose shots, a few too many disappointing shots around the green, and a few too many poor quality putts to really believe this Masters will be his, but I am pulling as hard for him as anyone, so on the team he goes.
Hideki Matsuyama(40/1) e.w.
- - So I have learned that when Matsuyama is flashing signs that he is in a zone, that's the time when I need to consider him for a play. I thought there were signs he was coming to a boil before the Players, and he had that sparkling 64 there at his last outing before the Covid shutdown. He obliged my confidence with a raging Sunday charge before fading to a very fine solo 5th place, and I was keeping on him with a further play in the Match play. His committing to Valero after a WD in the Match Play just fueled my speculation he is close to his best and just trying to tidy up some things, and I will let him carry my cash again this week at the Masters, given my lack of options for longshot plays that I like better.
Cameron Young(28/1) e.w.
- - Looking down the board for something juicier, I considered Kitayama for Top American, and Meronk for Top European, Lowry given the forecast, and even Tom Hoge, but going with this as a more legitimate chance. There is a spark at the right time with new bagman Paul Tesori, and Cam says he likes the way he is putting rounds together. And while folks regularly talk about course correlations, I glom on to a correlation between the Masters and doing well in the Match Play event just two weeks earlier, when confronted with multiple opportunities to answer under the gun and down the stretch in high level and high stress situations you just can’t simulate at this level in your preparation.
Colin Morikawa(33/1) e.w. First Round Leader
- -
- - I’ve done a really poor job of reading the room if it is much the case that Cantlay, Finau, JT, DJ, Rory, Zalatoris, Hovland, Fleetwood, Cam Smith, and Hatton come away dominating the storylines after the first major of the 2023 season.
Matchups:
Morikawa(+110) Un71' First Round
Spieth(-120) Un71' First Round
Morikawa(+150) over Fitzpatrick/Zalatoris (Thursday)
Koepka(+120) over Woodland/Willett (Thursday)
Homa(+180) over Scheffler/Bennett (Thursday)
Young(+225) over Rahm/Thomas (Thursday)
Woods(-102) over Garcia (Tournament)
Spieth(+108) over Cantlay (Tournament)
Matsuyama(-115) over Fitzpatrick (Tournament)
GL
Matchups YTD: 1-4 (-3.83*)
I felt my capping efforts and my betting discipline had stayed fairly unruffled through the season as my disappointing weekends kept stacking up. But two straight winning Sundays have put a bounce in my step and given my season a much different feel, although the grind will return soon enough. Regardless, the Majors have been better than most for me over the years, so I can definitely live with a few too many plays for the sketchy conditions.
The Masters:
Outrights:
Xander Schauffele(22/1) e.w.
- - I’ve been seeing only a positive turn off Xander’s season opening back issues, and being on my watch list heading into the Match Play, he proceeded to tick the right boxes. His second best ever finish at his hometown Farmers event was of a piece. Being paired with Tiger is not a twist that leaves me jumping up and down, but since I sense Xander’s resilience is in a good spot for dealing with likely weather interruptions and mud balls and such, it is possible he draws inspiration from the pairing. Missing the cut here last year (which is also the case for Rose and Spieth) is an intangible I rate as a motivating circumstance at a place where course history matters (although I see that angle might be a money burning proposition at Augusta if 24 of the last 25 winners made the cut the year before). IMO his strength at dialing in flighted iron shots to pin high or to feed off slopes is in contrast to Rory’s swings that fire lasers that never leave the pin but are way off the mark from also being flighted for distance. The still twenty-something has no shortage of contending chances and even a few scalps in the biggest events, and I think being under the radar only helps his chances at bagging the major needed on his resume.
Justin Rose(55/1) e.w.
- - I was totally off Rose for at least two full years since Covid, especially exercising the discipline to stay away if the question was whether the forty-something would sustain and build on a hint of something exceptional in a prior outing. But I got an entirely different vibe about his game and his intangibles in this Ryder Cup year from watching his very brief on camera interview during the American Express coverage, and after playing him at 55/1 at Farmers, I was kicking myself twice for not riding with him at the start of Pebble Beach and then not jumping on him in-running before his Saturday 65. In the old days before so many e.w. places I would have made a futures play on Rose for the Masters back in January, and I’ve liked what I’ve seen since, up to and including his pass on the Match Play. If I could only have two plays this week, they would be Xander and Rose.
Jordan Spieth(16/1) e.w.
- - I think the chances of Spieth bagging this Masters are quite a bit more likely than the chances of Jason Day crossing the line.
Corey Conners(45/1) e.w.
- - This was definitely slotted as my 66/1 or even 80/1 longshot for the Masters. But then I went to capping Valero, and I concluded there was a good chance Conners was ready to pop early, so much so that he became my #1 play last week. No complaints now with his popping early, and now it’s become a happy situation where I rarely ever pick up a winning marker.
Brooks Koepka(40/1) e.w.
- - Link: https://www.golfmagic.com/liv-golf/report-liv-golfs-100m-man-brooks-koepka-has-buyers-remorse
- - Two weeks ago before the LIV event in Tucson, my eyes were squarely on Koepka as likely being my one and only choice of LIV players for the Masters, and that choice really wasn’t needing the attractive 66/1 odds that were looking to be available. But exactly like Conners, I was very much looking at Koepka popping a week early in Orlando, with the one big difference being I would not have bet a dime on anything having to do with the fucking LIV Tour even if someone else staked me to the dime. Koepka did pop early, and I’m left with only getting 40/1 on the LIV bastard. As much as I like picking winners in the major championships, I will not be pulling for Koepka on Sunday against about 95% of the non-LIV options. Gratuitously adding I am now so, so, so glad that Greg Norman pissed away all his chances to win the Masters and I won’t forever see his smug face on the grounds as a former champion until his corpse is rotting.
Collin Morikawa(25/1) e.w.
- - Had my eye on this guy for this spot ever since the 2023 lid lifter at Kapalua, and win or lose at that event would have offered reasons to solidify that opinion, and his play in the months since has never given me reason to question keeping him on my short list. I would prefer him if Augusta was playing hard and fast instead of long and soft, but maybe I’m proven wrong about that.
Sungjae Im(33/1) e.w.
- - Even if I don’t get a sense he’s the winner, I can’t deny I’ve seen something that appeals from his prior play at Augusta, and therefore see some bit of value in this play.
Jason Day(25/1) e.w.
- - I’ve been tracking him from Day 1 this year, and making multiple outright plays on him this season, and have almost certainly been tracking more of his holes and shots on the leaderboards than any other player this year. What I keep seeing are a few too many wildly loose shots, a few too many disappointing shots around the green, and a few too many poor quality putts to really believe this Masters will be his, but I am pulling as hard for him as anyone, so on the team he goes.
Hideki Matsuyama(40/1) e.w.
- - So I have learned that when Matsuyama is flashing signs that he is in a zone, that's the time when I need to consider him for a play. I thought there were signs he was coming to a boil before the Players, and he had that sparkling 64 there at his last outing before the Covid shutdown. He obliged my confidence with a raging Sunday charge before fading to a very fine solo 5th place, and I was keeping on him with a further play in the Match play. His committing to Valero after a WD in the Match Play just fueled my speculation he is close to his best and just trying to tidy up some things, and I will let him carry my cash again this week at the Masters, given my lack of options for longshot plays that I like better.
Cameron Young(28/1) e.w.
- - Looking down the board for something juicier, I considered Kitayama for Top American, and Meronk for Top European, Lowry given the forecast, and even Tom Hoge, but going with this as a more legitimate chance. There is a spark at the right time with new bagman Paul Tesori, and Cam says he likes the way he is putting rounds together. And while folks regularly talk about course correlations, I glom on to a correlation between the Masters and doing well in the Match Play event just two weeks earlier, when confronted with multiple opportunities to answer under the gun and down the stretch in high level and high stress situations you just can’t simulate at this level in your preparation.
Colin Morikawa(33/1) e.w. First Round Leader
- -
- - I’ve done a really poor job of reading the room if it is much the case that Cantlay, Finau, JT, DJ, Rory, Zalatoris, Hovland, Fleetwood, Cam Smith, and Hatton come away dominating the storylines after the first major of the 2023 season.
Matchups:
Morikawa(+110) Un71' First Round
Spieth(-120) Un71' First Round
Morikawa(+150) over Fitzpatrick/Zalatoris (Thursday)
Koepka(+120) over Woodland/Willett (Thursday)
Homa(+180) over Scheffler/Bennett (Thursday)
Young(+225) over Rahm/Thomas (Thursday)
Woods(-102) over Garcia (Tournament)
Spieth(+108) over Cantlay (Tournament)
Matsuyama(-115) over Fitzpatrick (Tournament)
GL
RBC Heritage:
Outrights YTD: 13-142 (-32.08*)
Matchups YTD: 14-12 (+2.97*)
Zach Johnson(500/1) e.w.
- - Early on this year I saw and heard enough that I have been expecting a noteworthy Zack Johnson moment all year, and been favoring it to happen sooner rather than later. Every instance of my tracking Zach in that regard during the season has offered some positive reinforcement for my views. In his words at Honda, “ I'm encouraged. I've been encouraged for weeks and months with my direction”. Then The Masters gave me the opportunity to view as much Zach as I chose to watch, and I chose to watch plenty, and IMO his game looked close to immaculate and his swing looked fantastic. Now the Tour moves on from a long slog and arrives in his backyard at a course that offers a tailor made opportunity. Hold me back.
Zach Johnson(10/1) e.w.
- - I have maybe made three Top Twenty bets in 20 years, but I really can’t ever remember doing so. I will remember making this one.
Tom Kim(35/1) e.w.
- - After providing lots of remarkable finishes in his early career, Kim had definitely fallen off the boil. But a finishing position of 16th as a Masters debutante is definitely rolling out a rock solid hint of a return to something close to his best, and now a somewhat more favorable opportunity presents itself as a follow up.
Russell Henley(45/1) e.w.
- - At remarkable venues that prove to be all-time favorites of the games elites, discussions about about course history and course fit figure significantly, regardless of the strength of the field, especially IMO on the heels of the season’s first major played in trying conditions. What I saw from Henley at Augusta seems worth speculating on as having put a bounce in his step more than emptied his tank for an elevated opportunity on this trip to something rating at least as a correlated venue for success.
Wyndham Clark(110/1) e.w.
- -
Matt Kuchar(45/1) e.w.
- - Kuchar was a strong play for me at Houston two weeks ago, and now I am hopeful that narrowly missing the Masters kept him fresh and motivated as he prepared for a visit to a favorite stop.
Shane Lowry(30/1) e.w.
- - I’ve kept my powder dry and only been tempted to dip my toes in the water on one or two laughable plays this season on my hero from Portrush, but taking another shot here.
Ben Martin(125/1) e.w.
- - I’ll speculate some more with this play over backing Morikawa or some others near the head of the market.
Matt Fitzpatrick(30/1) e.w.
- - I am not surprised that Fitz has expressed a love for this place.
Luke Donald(400/1) e.w.
- - I haven’t forgotten about Zach’s Ryder Cup counterpart, especially since I have been favorably tracking his path to Harbour Town. Zack Johnson lite.
GL
Outrights YTD: 13-142 (-32.08*)
Matchups YTD: 14-12 (+2.97*)
Zach Johnson(500/1) e.w.
- - Early on this year I saw and heard enough that I have been expecting a noteworthy Zack Johnson moment all year, and been favoring it to happen sooner rather than later. Every instance of my tracking Zach in that regard during the season has offered some positive reinforcement for my views. In his words at Honda, “ I'm encouraged. I've been encouraged for weeks and months with my direction”. Then The Masters gave me the opportunity to view as much Zach as I chose to watch, and I chose to watch plenty, and IMO his game looked close to immaculate and his swing looked fantastic. Now the Tour moves on from a long slog and arrives in his backyard at a course that offers a tailor made opportunity. Hold me back.
Zach Johnson(10/1) e.w.
- - I have maybe made three Top Twenty bets in 20 years, but I really can’t ever remember doing so. I will remember making this one.
Tom Kim(35/1) e.w.
- - After providing lots of remarkable finishes in his early career, Kim had definitely fallen off the boil. But a finishing position of 16th as a Masters debutante is definitely rolling out a rock solid hint of a return to something close to his best, and now a somewhat more favorable opportunity presents itself as a follow up.
Russell Henley(45/1) e.w.
- - At remarkable venues that prove to be all-time favorites of the games elites, discussions about about course history and course fit figure significantly, regardless of the strength of the field, especially IMO on the heels of the season’s first major played in trying conditions. What I saw from Henley at Augusta seems worth speculating on as having put a bounce in his step more than emptied his tank for an elevated opportunity on this trip to something rating at least as a correlated venue for success.
Wyndham Clark(110/1) e.w.
- -
Matt Kuchar(45/1) e.w.
- - Kuchar was a strong play for me at Houston two weeks ago, and now I am hopeful that narrowly missing the Masters kept him fresh and motivated as he prepared for a visit to a favorite stop.
Shane Lowry(30/1) e.w.
- - I’ve kept my powder dry and only been tempted to dip my toes in the water on one or two laughable plays this season on my hero from Portrush, but taking another shot here.
Ben Martin(125/1) e.w.
- - I’ll speculate some more with this play over backing Morikawa or some others near the head of the market.
Matt Fitzpatrick(30/1) e.w.
- - I am not surprised that Fitz has expressed a love for this place.
Luke Donald(400/1) e.w.
- - I haven’t forgotten about Zach’s Ryder Cup counterpart, especially since I have been favorably tracking his path to Harbour Town. Zack Johnson lite.
GL
Outrights YTD: 14-151 (-23.33*)
Matchups YTD: 14-12 (+2.97*)
A winner at Heritage with Fitzpatrick adds to my often noted propensity to do well in the Majors and the week after. It can also absolve splashing more funds than advisable on the follow up team event.
Zurich:
Outrights:
Clark/Hossler(28/1) e.w.
- -
Fitzpatrick/Fitzpatrick(35/1) e.w.
- - Carrying to extremes my aversion to picking up a winning marker.
Detry/Perez(33/1) e.w.
- -
Cole/Saunders(110/1) e.w.
Donald/Molinari(160/1) e.w.
- - Hold me back.
Chevron:
Outrights:
Minjee Lee(33/1) e.w.
- -
GL
Matchups YTD: 14-12 (+2.97*)
A winner at Heritage with Fitzpatrick adds to my often noted propensity to do well in the Majors and the week after. It can also absolve splashing more funds than advisable on the follow up team event.
Zurich:
Outrights:
Clark/Hossler(28/1) e.w.
- -
Fitzpatrick/Fitzpatrick(35/1) e.w.
- - Carrying to extremes my aversion to picking up a winning marker.
Detry/Perez(33/1) e.w.
- -
Cole/Saunders(110/1) e.w.
Donald/Molinari(160/1) e.w.
- - Hold me back.
Chevron:
Outrights:
Minjee Lee(33/1) e.w.
- -
GL
