Fore! 2019

[lostinamerica]

Through 7 weeks:
Outrights YTD: 9-88 (+68.22*)
Matchups YTD: 0-1 (-1.38*)

Super 6 Perth:

Outrights:

Ryan Fox(28/1) e.w.
Min Woo Lee(40/1) e.w.
Grant Forrest(80/1) e.w.
Michael Hoey(125/1) e.w.
Austin Connelly(175/1) e.w.

Genesis:

Outrights:

Phil Mickelson(25/1) e.w.
J.B. Holmes(150/1) e.w.
Bubba Watson(20/1) e.w.
Charles Howell(50/1) e.w.
Michael Thompson(140/1) e.w.
Xander Schauffele(22/1) e.w.
Ernie Els(250/1) e.w.
Jordan Spieth(25/1) e.w.
Scott Stallings(90/1) e.w.

Chubb Classic:

Outrights:

Retief Goosen(22/1) e.w.
Ken Tanigawa(66/1) e.w
Kevin Sutherland(20/1) e.w.
Miguel Angel Jimenez(22/1) e.w.
Lee Janzen(160/1) e.w.

I’m saving a screen shot of that.

It is hard to get anyone at decent odds over the finish line on a Sunday. 3 for 3 last Sunday was just plain silly. A good day just kept getting better.

If I had offered just one nugget of analysis with my posts last week, it would have read essentially as follows: “I play J.B. Holmes at Riviera every year because I know it’s his favorite course on Tour, and I love the fact he didn’t post one round under 70 last year. I can’t pick up a winning marker on Phil, so that selection gets my top billing, otherwise it would be J.B.”

Today I went back and researched that my plays on J.B. were 80/1 e.w. in 2018, 40/1 e.w. in 2017, 28/1 e.w. in 2016, 35/1 e.w. in 2015, and 100/1 e.w. in 2014 . . . Guess I'm glad J.B. waited until 2018 to come up large.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

WGC Mexico Championship:

Outrights:

Rafael Cabrera Bello(50/1) e.w.
Alex Noren(80/1) e.w.
Tommy Fleetwood(35/1) e.w.
Shane Lowry(80/1) e.w.
Matthew Fitzpatrick(75/1) e.w.
Tiger Woods(20/1) e.w.
Aaron Wise(175/1) e.w.
Abraham Ancer(125/1) e.w.
Cameron Smith(66/1) e.w.
- - As I started off with an average-sized list of about 20 inclinations to research for affirmations, and/or characters I was overlooking, I confess how surprised I was that so many non-Americans were appearing as my preferred selections. If it turns out I’m fairly clueless this week, the thing that would really disappoint me would be if the Sunday leaderboard is populated with non-Americans, but only the ones I passed on . . . It was last week when I made the decision to pass on Rafa and Fleetwood to wait for IMO greener pastures this week, and they both delivered “somewhat expectedly” as solid non-factors last week . . . Noren and Wise seem to offer value, especially when re-discovering that Noren has won twice at altitude (and I chuckled listening to a fantasy golf podcast in which Ben Coley observed that after Wise has narrowly missed a few early season cuts (most recently a surely frustrating 6-6 finish last week), he is being fantasy priced like he is David Lipsky) . . . Tiger was fatigued at the end of last week, but he is otherwise fresh and trending, and without peer at WGC gatherings, although I would greatly prefer more familiar and proven surroundings for building on his 80 wins.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Puerto Rico:

Outrights:

Julian Etulain(66/1) e.w.
Matt Every(28/1) e.w.
Adam Svensson(66/1) e.w.
Joey Garber(175/1) e.w.
Sebastian Munoz(66/1) e.w.
Corey Conners(30/1) e.w.
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez(100/1) e.w.
Graeme McDowell(18/1) e.w.
Cameron Tringale(125/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Oman:

Outrights:

Jordan Smith(25/1) e.w.
Marcus Kinhult(33/1) e.w.
Pablo Larrazabal(55/1) e.w.
Matthew Southgate(66/1) e.w.
Callum Shinkwin(80/1) e.w.
Thomas Aiken(100/1) e.w.
David Drysdale(125/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Honda:

Outrights:

Russell Henley(80/1) e.w.
Adam Scott(14/1) e.w.
Russell Knox(50/1) e.w.
Talor Gooch(100/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(60/1) e.w.
Zach Johnson(60/1) e.w.
Harold Varner(125/1) e.w.
- - No returns last week, but solid e.w. contenders in both events at 175/1 and 66/1 which kept my viewing interest throughout the week, and substantial viewing of television and on-line leaderboards week after week will ever remain the key for establishing and revising the ANGLES and INFORMATION which are the foundation for most of my wagering success over the course of a long season . . . Unfortunately, the weeks leading up to March 1 and April 15 are always among the most consuming and stressful for my work, so any rigorous supplemental capping was non-existent this week . . . I have been keeping my powder dry for multiple plays on Henley until the Tour arrived in Florida.

GL

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Qatar:

Outrights:

Thomas Aiken(80/1) e.w.
Romain Langasque(45/1) e.w.
David Drysdale(110/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Arnold Palmer:

Outrights:

Ian Poulter(50/1) e.w.
Charles Howell(60/1) e.w.
Francesco Molinari(35/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(50/1) e.w.
Davis Love(300/1) e.w.
Bryson DeChambeau(16/1) e.w.
Matt Every(100/1) e.w.
Jason Kokrak(70/1) e.w.
Sam Saunders(250/1) e.w.
J.B. Holmes(80/1) e.w.

GL

 

[scrubs]

great pic and, hopefully, picks

 

[lostinamerica]

great pic

"Arnie has more people watching him park the car than we do out on the course." ~ Lee Trevino


Hoag Classic:

Outrights:

Darren Clarke(40/1) e.w.
Tommy Tolles(140/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Arnold Palmer:

In-running:

Jason Kokrak(200/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

---

Through 10 weeks:
Outrights YTD: 11-133 (+52.10*)
Matchups YTD: 0-1 (-1.38*)


Kenya Open:

Outrights:

Haydn Porteous(40/1) e.w.
Gaganjeet Bhullar(28/1) e.w.
Erik van Rooyen(18/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

The Players:

Outrights:

Tiger Woods(22/1) e.w.
- - A second shot course where everyone is more or less hitting their tee shots to the same spots, with bermuda greens in Florida after a horrific putting escapade, should suit Tiger 2019 down to his soft spikes . . . I'm not hearing anything fundamentally disparaging, and in fact quite the contrary, since he arrived on site.

Francesco Molinari(22/1) e.w.
- - No intention of picking up this winning marker which definitely seems better than most.

Ryan Palmer(140/1) e.w.
- - On my radar because IMO he fits the profile, in terms of career CV and current season markers, of a wide swath of players that have had defining won and could have won moments at TPC Sawgrass.

Gary Woodland(66/1) e.w.
- - A name I definitely dismissed on first blush, but then it just started seeming a bit inspired. Or not.

Ian Poulter(50/1) e.w.
- - More than once I’ve previously pegged Poulter for success here, and now I think his markers for being pegged during the last 365 days are at least as compelling as those of the prior 42 years. At this moment has to be on my roster more than Adam Scott, Justin Thomas, Si Woo Kim, Chez Reavie, Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood or Xander Schauffele, among others.

Lucas Glover(66/1) e.w.
- - Tough courses suit him, tough moments most assuredly do not.

Matt Kuchar(55/1) e.w.
- -

Henrik Stenson(55/1) e.w.
- - The state of his game and the elements of his back story at this moment seem a bit inscrutable. Or not.

Jason Kokrak(100/1) e.w.
- - Kind of stuck on my radar.

Billy Horschel(80/1) e.w.
- - Making something happen early days with his putter will IMO determine the virtue of this wager, not so much whether he holds his nerve if he does sniff the finish line.

Russell Henley(150/1) e.w.
- - As I posted at Honda, “ FWIW, my peculiar plans for many weeks have involved holding off until the Tour moved to Florida before making multiple plays, regardless of early results, on Russell Henley ascending smartly past his #148 position in the FedEx Cup standings; the holding off segment was successful, now the hard part.” Not abandoning ship.

J.B. Holmes(150/1) e.w.
- - Has played some good golf here, but doubting that his recent glory portends similar Sunday grit in quick succession, probably better suited for a play as first round leader.

Kevin Kisner(125/1) e.w.
- - At this moment has to be on my roster more than Adam Scott, Justin Thomas, Si Woo Kim, Chez Reavie, Paul Casey, Tommy Fleetwood or Xander Schauffele, among others. Having lost a playoff here adds an extra intangible.

Sam Saunders(275/1) e.w. Top American
- - I have a definite opinion that he should not be priced in the bottom 10% of the field when I’m certain his game was directed towards peaking last week, but their were harsh results for a variety of reasons, and now the bounce back circumstances are fairly conducive. Destined to be a value loser at 500/1, I’ll burn my cash on a Top American play instead.

Xander Schauffele(28/1) e.w.
- - This is an event where I don’t really have a problem swerving plays on the market leaders . . . and if they get it done, more power to them . . . This price has almost no appeal, but his winning prospects have some appeal.

Rafael Cabrera Bello(66/1) e.w.
- - Wish I liked his chances of being fresh and rested and emerging through the grind of this Sunday, as he looked under better circumstances last Sunday . . . At the start of the week, I sort of expected that with my extensive list of prospects and generally satisfactory recent ANGLES and INFORMATION, it would take some discipline to limit myself to between 12 to 15 plays for the flagship event on this Tour (while I would be surprised if I came up with two plays at the moment for the European event for which I would feel equally invested) . . . This makes 16. Should I stand or should I hit?

J.B. Holmes(125/1) e.w. First Round Leader
- - I'll stay on hard 17.


Matchups:

Molinari(-130) over Day (Tournament)
Woods(-136) over Reed (Tournament)
Thomas(+115) over Johnson (Tournament)
Palmer(+160) over Mullinax/Im (Thursday)


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Maybank:

Outrights:

Gaganjeet Bhullar(40/1) e.w.
Shubhankar Sharma(45/1) e.w.
Aaron Rai(50/1) e.w.
Adrian Otaegui(55/1) e.w.
Thongchai Jaidee(125/1) e.w.
Phachara Khongwatmai(125/1) e.w.
Yikeun Chang(150/1) e.w.
Thomas Bjorn(175/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Valspar:

Outrights:

Kevin Kisner(45/1) e.w.
Lucas Glover(45/1) e.w.
Jason Kokrak(45/1) e.w.
Rafael Cabrera Bello(50/1) e.w.
Russell Henley(100/1) e.w.
Sam Saunders(250/1) e.w.
Cameron Tringale(300/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

WGC Dell Match Play:

Outrights:

Bubba Watson(30/1) e.w.
Matt Wallace(90/1) e.w.
Dustin Johnson(11/1) e.w.
Matt Kuchar(50/1) e.w.
Louis Oosthuizen(40/1) e.w.
Tom Lewis(250/1) e.w.
Justin Rose(22/1) e.w.
Ian Poulter(33/1) e.w.
Patrick Cantlay(55/1) e.w.

GL

 

[Ilovetobet]

bol

 

[lostinamerica]

^ ^ ^ Danke schon ^ ^ ^

Indian Open:

Outrights:

Aaron Rai(33/1) e.w.
Adrian Otaegui(45/1) e.w.
S.S.P. Chowrasia(60/1) e.w.
Ashley Chesters(80/1) e.w.
Jbe Kruger(200/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Thursday:

Furyk(-115) over Mickelson
Snedeker(+160) over Woods
Hatton(+115) over Schauffele
Wallace(+150) over Thomas

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Corales Puntacana:

Outrights:

Sungjae Im(16/1) e.w.
Aaron Baddeley(28/1) e.w.
Thomas Detry(33/1) e.w.
Rory Sabbatini(40/1) e.w.
D.J. Trahan(90/1) e.w.
Trevor Immelman(275/1) e.w.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Friday:

Wallace(-125) over Bjerregaard
Stenson(-110) over Furyk
Kuchar(+130) over Rahm
Leishman(-105) over DeChambeau
Stanley(+110) over An

GL