Outrights:
Houston:
Lucas Glover(225/1) e.w.
Charles Howell(66/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(18/1) e.w.
Jamie Lovemark(80/1) e.w.
Jimmy Walker(40/1) e.w.
Lee Westwood(125/1) e.w.
Johnson Wagner(225/1) e.w.
ANA:
Morgan Pressel(125/1) e.w.
Angela Stanford(125/1) e.w.
Mississippi:
Mark Calcavecchia(200/1) e.w.
GL
Houston:
Lucas Glover(225/1) e.w.
Charles Howell(66/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(18/1) e.w.
Jamie Lovemark(80/1) e.w.
Jimmy Walker(40/1) e.w.
Lee Westwood(125/1) e.w.
Johnson Wagner(225/1) e.w.
ANA:
Morgan Pressel(125/1) e.w.
Angela Stanford(125/1) e.w.
Mississippi:
Mark Calcavecchia(200/1) e.w.
GL
The Masters:
Outrights:
Phil Mickelson(25/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(50/1) e.w.
Adam Scott(12/1) e.w.
Charl Schwartzel(55/1) e.w.
Shane Lowry(150/1) e.w.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat(66/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3) e.w. Top ROW
Ian Poulter(28/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) Top European
Rafael Cabrera Bello(28/1) e.w. Top European
David Lingmerth(50/1) e.w. Top European
Bill Haas(40/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w. Top American
Kevin Streelman(150/1) e.w. 1st Round Leader
Tom Watson(500/1) e.w. 1st Round Leader
Matchups:
Day(-130) over Spieth (Tournament)
Poulter(-145) over Westwood (Tournament)
Bradley(-115) Ov72' 1st Round
Westwood(-165) Ov71' 1st Round
Kaymer(-130) Ov73' 1st Round
Langer(-170) Ov73' 1st Round
Singh(-160) Ov71' 1st Round
Dufner(-165) Ov71' 1st Round
GL
Outrights:
Phil Mickelson(25/1) e.w.
Brandt Snedeker(50/1) e.w.
Adam Scott(12/1) e.w.
Charl Schwartzel(55/1) e.w.
Shane Lowry(150/1) e.w.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat(66/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3) e.w. Top ROW
Ian Poulter(28/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) Top European
Rafael Cabrera Bello(28/1) e.w. Top European
David Lingmerth(50/1) e.w. Top European
Bill Haas(40/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w. Top American
Kevin Streelman(150/1) e.w. 1st Round Leader
Tom Watson(500/1) e.w. 1st Round Leader
Matchups:
Day(-130) over Spieth (Tournament)
Poulter(-145) over Westwood (Tournament)
Bradley(-115) Ov72' 1st Round
Westwood(-165) Ov71' 1st Round
Kaymer(-130) Ov73' 1st Round
Langer(-170) Ov73' 1st Round
Singh(-160) Ov71' 1st Round
Dufner(-165) Ov71' 1st Round
GL
ointer:
A pile of observations . . .
The more I see and hear, the more I believe Westwood has “been in a good place” since the week began, and it's been trending in only one direction. He should acquit himself on Sunday better than his average, which is better than the alternative.
No surprise if this is a position from which Snedeker some day snatches a Masters, and he’s close to his best at the moment.
Plenty of evidence Spieth’s swing this week is being held together with bailing wire, more so than evidence of a swing that has been trending toward leading The Masters for four rounds. If the young guy with the old head schools so many hungry rivals once again, this time with much less than his best, then shame on them.
It will be more incredulous than Tom Watson at Turnberry if Langer is the best on Sunday, especially if the conditions open the spigots on rounds in the 60's. At the other end of the spectrum, my catechism tells me Kaufman doesn’t have anywhere near the experience to fill the best on Sunday shoes.
I’ve been wrong most of the week on which direction Matsuyama would be moving on the leaderboard and right on the direction of Willet. And further back, McIlroy appeals to me more than Rose or Casey even further back.
Day is a huge threat, but IMO not the lead challenger.
There are so many shots around Augusta that Dustin Johnson is comfortable with that are exactly the type of shots that elsewhere would cause him problems, providing a difficult but nevertheless custom tailored opportunity to erase the fact of having been robbed when his all-time brilliant shot hung up on the backstop at last year’s U.S. Open.
Sunday:
Westwood(-125) over Kjeldsen
Johnson(-155) Un71' 4th Round
Snedeker(+110) Un 71' 4th Round
Westwood(-115) Un72' 4th Round
Johnson(-115) over Matsuyama
Horschel(-105) over Holmes
Kisner(-125) over Bradley
GL
The more I see and hear, the more I believe Westwood has “been in a good place” since the week began, and it's been trending in only one direction. He should acquit himself on Sunday better than his average, which is better than the alternative.
No surprise if this is a position from which Snedeker some day snatches a Masters, and he’s close to his best at the moment.
Plenty of evidence Spieth’s swing this week is being held together with bailing wire, more so than evidence of a swing that has been trending toward leading The Masters for four rounds. If the young guy with the old head schools so many hungry rivals once again, this time with much less than his best, then shame on them.
It will be more incredulous than Tom Watson at Turnberry if Langer is the best on Sunday, especially if the conditions open the spigots on rounds in the 60's. At the other end of the spectrum, my catechism tells me Kaufman doesn’t have anywhere near the experience to fill the best on Sunday shoes.
I’ve been wrong most of the week on which direction Matsuyama would be moving on the leaderboard and right on the direction of Willet. And further back, McIlroy appeals to me more than Rose or Casey even further back.
Day is a huge threat, but IMO not the lead challenger.
There are so many shots around Augusta that Dustin Johnson is comfortable with that are exactly the type of shots that elsewhere would cause him problems, providing a difficult but nevertheless custom tailored opportunity to erase the fact of having been robbed when his all-time brilliant shot hung up on the backstop at last year’s U.S. Open.
Sunday:
Westwood(-125) over Kjeldsen
Johnson(-155) Un71' 4th Round
Snedeker(+110) Un 71' 4th Round
Westwood(-115) Un72' 4th Round
Johnson(-115) over Matsuyama
Horschel(-105) over Holmes
Kisner(-125) over Bradley
GL
Heritage:
Outrights:
Russell Knox(50/1) e.w.
- - Seems well-suited to a mere observer capping from a distance, and then he offers his own intimate and personal concurrence.
Francesco Molinari(100/1) e.w.
- - Last year Molinari finished second in Europe the week after missing out on the Masters, which says almost everything about one type of player I'm trying to identify the week after The Masters . . . For tangibles, Harbour Town suits him perfectly in it's ball striking demands (if sea breezes don't become huge winds), while the short game demands with the tiny greens don't suit. For tangibles, IMO he's in a rich vein of form with nothing to show for it. On the whole, I wouldn't think of passing on his triple figure odds.
Luke Donald(50/1) e.w.
- - I've been expecting a strong campaign from Donald from the get-go, I've been tracking him accordingly, and so far he's scored somewhere in the 90% to 100% bust range on my grading curve. Here, I very much like the fact he was forced to the sidelines last week, when the whole season to date had more or less been a prelude to Thursday at The Masters (which is a further prelude to Sunday at The Masters). (Unlike so many of my capping brethren, I LOVE the majors when it comes successful betting opportunities . . . which has dynamics which can bleed into the week after a major.) Anywho, hopefully the dude has been stewing in some juices of disappointment while Willett stirred some real sentiments of English pride, and the resulting concoction is a heady brew for this week, at a track where his record goes way beyond course specialist to something more sublime, but where a win still eludes.
Bryson Dechambeau(66/1) e.w.
- - From what I saw and heard he put a LOT of effort and preparation into The Masters, and while playing the first two days with Spieth while he was setting the target, and then moving on to the weekend, I'd have to say he was about one triple bogey from grading out at A+, so I'll give him an A-. Not sure what's in store for this week, but I think it's something more than an afterthought on his radar.
Lucas Glover(140/1) e.w.
- - Bless his heart is my grade for his wrap around season to date.
Chris Kirk(66/1) e.w.
- -
Billy Horschel(40/1) e.w.
- - I think he's a lot closer to his best right now than Ian Poulter, so my money followed accordingly.
GL
Outrights:
Russell Knox(50/1) e.w.
- - Seems well-suited to a mere observer capping from a distance, and then he offers his own intimate and personal concurrence.
Francesco Molinari(100/1) e.w.
- - Last year Molinari finished second in Europe the week after missing out on the Masters, which says almost everything about one type of player I'm trying to identify the week after The Masters . . . For tangibles, Harbour Town suits him perfectly in it's ball striking demands (if sea breezes don't become huge winds), while the short game demands with the tiny greens don't suit. For tangibles, IMO he's in a rich vein of form with nothing to show for it. On the whole, I wouldn't think of passing on his triple figure odds.
Luke Donald(50/1) e.w.
- - I've been expecting a strong campaign from Donald from the get-go, I've been tracking him accordingly, and so far he's scored somewhere in the 90% to 100% bust range on my grading curve. Here, I very much like the fact he was forced to the sidelines last week, when the whole season to date had more or less been a prelude to Thursday at The Masters (which is a further prelude to Sunday at The Masters). (Unlike so many of my capping brethren, I LOVE the majors when it comes successful betting opportunities . . . which has dynamics which can bleed into the week after a major.) Anywho, hopefully the dude has been stewing in some juices of disappointment while Willett stirred some real sentiments of English pride, and the resulting concoction is a heady brew for this week, at a track where his record goes way beyond course specialist to something more sublime, but where a win still eludes.
Bryson Dechambeau(66/1) e.w.
- - From what I saw and heard he put a LOT of effort and preparation into The Masters, and while playing the first two days with Spieth while he was setting the target, and then moving on to the weekend, I'd have to say he was about one triple bogey from grading out at A+, so I'll give him an A-. Not sure what's in store for this week, but I think it's something more than an afterthought on his radar.
Lucas Glover(140/1) e.w.
- - Bless his heart is my grade for his wrap around season to date.
Chris Kirk(66/1) e.w.
- -
Billy Horschel(40/1) e.w.
- - I think he's a lot closer to his best right now than Ian Poulter, so my money followed accordingly.
GL
Saturday:
In-running . . .
Billy Horschel(50/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
-- On a very limited number of in-running plays this season, I've already found my groove with Lingmerth(28/1) e.w. in Palm Springs, Westwood(300/1) e.w. at The Masters, and at least one other play that escapes me now, so this is not the week to drop the ball on taking another stab . . . I didn't get back to a computer to post the play until after the Saturday rounds had started, but in-running plays are still available for some Rx members . . . I've been following Horschel pretty closely and on that basis my expectations have only been trending upwards. He shows up this week off a very positive week and experience at The Masters, and it seems like today offers a decent chance for holing those 6 foot putts that keep a round going (and a Floridian's experience in breezy conditions), and he should be feeling reasonably relaxed and confident, but on task with some of his best game to move up the leaderboard and scupper his #183 rank in 3rd round scoring average. Even if a case might be made for better plays, it wouldn't change my personal need to ride with Horschel today and let him carry even more of my cash, and I was only hoping I'd get at least 40/1; if it doesn't work out today, I'll likely be looking for a way to get some of it back with some sort of play on Sunday.
Horschel(-125) over Finau
GL
In-running . . .
Billy Horschel(50/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) e.w.
-- On a very limited number of in-running plays this season, I've already found my groove with Lingmerth(28/1) e.w. in Palm Springs, Westwood(300/1) e.w. at The Masters, and at least one other play that escapes me now, so this is not the week to drop the ball on taking another stab . . . I didn't get back to a computer to post the play until after the Saturday rounds had started, but in-running plays are still available for some Rx members . . . I've been following Horschel pretty closely and on that basis my expectations have only been trending upwards. He shows up this week off a very positive week and experience at The Masters, and it seems like today offers a decent chance for holing those 6 foot putts that keep a round going (and a Floridian's experience in breezy conditions), and he should be feeling reasonably relaxed and confident, but on task with some of his best game to move up the leaderboard and scupper his #183 rank in 3rd round scoring average. Even if a case might be made for better plays, it wouldn't change my personal need to ride with Horschel today and let him carry even more of my cash, and I was only hoping I'd get at least 40/1; if it doesn't work out today, I'll likely be looking for a way to get some of it back with some sort of play on Sunday.
Horschel(-125) over Finau
GL
Shenzhen:
Outrights:
Kiradech Aphibarnrat(14/1) e.w.
- - He won for me here last year, he just cashed a ticket for me in Top R.O.W. betting at The Masters, and the globetrotting newlywed arrives fresher (at least briefly) than many on my radar, so just the skinny price doesn’t dissuade me.
Ross Fisher(20/1) e.w.
- - Hard to fake it last week at Valderama, so I was definitely encouraged by Fisher’s showing on top of Luke Donald’s showing. Accordingly, I’ll be giving Fisher a look on tough venues in the future, especially with long odds in tough company. And also a look at any of his favorite spots. For that matter, let’s give him a look the very next week where the venue and locale are not exactly negatives. But IMO his price feels like it really and truly sucks . . . so maybe he is on to something.
Pablo Larrazabal(35/1) e.w.
- - The angle is there on a course that could suit well.
Alvaro Quiros (80/1) e.w.
- - It seems he’s not firing blanks, so maybe this is near the right time and place.
Kristoffer Broberg(100/1) e.w.
- - I guess because I wasn't having any Colsaerts or Im.
GL
Outrights:
Kiradech Aphibarnrat(14/1) e.w.
- - He won for me here last year, he just cashed a ticket for me in Top R.O.W. betting at The Masters, and the globetrotting newlywed arrives fresher (at least briefly) than many on my radar, so just the skinny price doesn’t dissuade me.
Ross Fisher(20/1) e.w.
- - Hard to fake it last week at Valderama, so I was definitely encouraged by Fisher’s showing on top of Luke Donald’s showing. Accordingly, I’ll be giving Fisher a look on tough venues in the future, especially with long odds in tough company. And also a look at any of his favorite spots. For that matter, let’s give him a look the very next week where the venue and locale are not exactly negatives. But IMO his price feels like it really and truly sucks . . . so maybe he is on to something.
Pablo Larrazabal(35/1) e.w.
- - The angle is there on a course that could suit well.
Alvaro Quiros (80/1) e.w.
- - It seems he’s not firing blanks, so maybe this is near the right time and place.
Kristoffer Broberg(100/1) e.w.
- - I guess because I wasn't having any Colsaerts or Im.
GL
Texas Open:
Outrights:
Aaron Baddeley(66/1) e.w.
Kyle Stanley(150/1) e.w.
Ricky Barnes(175/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(22/1) e.w.
Fredrik Jacobson(66/1) e.w.
Jason Kokrak(45/1) e.w.
- - The Masters and Harbour Town provided me with some clear thinking on my staking plans. Going back to Texas gives me no such feelings.
GL
Outrights:
Aaron Baddeley(66/1) e.w.
Kyle Stanley(150/1) e.w.
Ricky Barnes(175/1) e.w.
Phil Mickelson(22/1) e.w.
Fredrik Jacobson(66/1) e.w.
Jason Kokrak(45/1) e.w.
- - The Masters and Harbour Town provided me with some clear thinking on my staking plans. Going back to Texas gives me no such feelings.
GL
Posted on 4/7/16:
My last updated record had been posted on 3/9/16:
My updated record prior to The Masters:
Futures YTD: 13-129 (+28.13*)
Matchups YTD: 5-9 (-4.80*)
My fully updated record on 4/25/16 after last week in China and Texas:
Futures YTD: 19-161 (+56.81*)
Matchups YTD: 19-19 (-2.60*)
GL
My last updated record had been posted on 3/9/16:
My updated record prior to The Masters:
Futures YTD: 13-129 (+28.13*)
Matchups YTD: 5-9 (-4.80*)
My fully updated record on 4/25/16 after last week in China and Texas:
Futures YTD: 19-161 (+56.81*)
Matchups YTD: 19-19 (-2.60*)
GL
