Rested Steelers too much for run-down Ravens
By Matt Williamson
Scouts Inc.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
<table id="inlinetable" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr><th colspan="9" style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" align="center">Baltimore at Pittsburgh</th></tr><tr><td colspan="2" align="center">
</td><td colspan="5" align="center">
When: 6:30 PM ET
Watch: CBS
Preview
More scouting reports: Week 3
</td><td colspan="2" align="center">
</td></tr><tr><th colspan="9" style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);">
</th></tr><tr><th style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" colspan="9">Scouts Inc. Position Advantage</th></tr><tr><td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">QB</td><td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">RB</td><td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">WR</td><td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">OL</td><td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">DL</td><td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">LB</td><td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">DB</td><td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">ST</td><td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">Coach</td></tr><tr style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);" valign="top"><td align="center" width="62">
</td><td align="center" width="62">
</td><td align="center" width="62">
</td><td align="center" width="62">
</td><td align="center" width="62">
</td><td align="center" width="62">
</td><td align="center" width="62">
</td><td align="center" width="62">
</td><td align="center" width="62">
</td></tr></tbody></table>If you have any passion for a physical, hard-nosed rivalry, this is the game for you. The two head coaches -- Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh and John Harbaugh in Baltimore -- are still rather young, but have combined for 36 wins, including three playoff victories. The Steelers won both games between these two, but by a combined margin of only seven points. Last week, Pittsburgh handled the Chargers effectively in all phases. San Diego ran just one offensive play in the third quarter, possessing the ball for 17 seconds, and turned the ball over twice in that frame as Pittsburgh pulled away. Meanwhile, Tennessee racked up 256 first-half yards but committed far too many costly turnovers deep in Baltimore's territory and made it too easy for the Ravens to advance.
When Baltimore has the ball
On his way to becoming the first rookie quarterback to win back-to-back playoff games,
Joe Flacco completed only 44 percent of his passes but has yet to turn the ball over. Baltimore is 11-1 when Flacco doesn't throw an interception. Even when the play breaks down, Flacco remains poised, rarely forces a throw that shouldn't be made and is content to throw the ball away. He is an effortless deep passer with an extremely strong arm, and the Ravens are not hesitant about throwing downfield. However, offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will not force Flacco to throw on all third-and-long situations because the team's philosophy is that the defense will keep them in every game and the offense will live to fight another day. The Steelers don't allow big plays, and they led the league in allowing just 5.4 yards per pass attempt, but Flacco will have to throw more in this game. WR
Derrick Mason has 149 receiving yards in two playoff games and clearly is Flacco's go-to receiver. He will do battle with CB
Ike Taylor, who has had a great season. Taylor is the more physically impressive of the two, but Mason's short-area quickness and exceptional route-running skills could give him the edge. Mason had a big day when these teams first met, but the Steelers feature an underrated secondary that matches up well with Baltimore's pass-catchers.
However, the Ravens want to dictate the pace of the game, starting with their extremely physical and fearless rushing attack. The Ravens rushed for 215 combined yards in previous meetings against the Steelers this year.
Le'Ron McClain moves extremely well for a 260-pound back, but his ankle injury is hampering his burst and agility. McClain has done well against the Steelers but could have a tough go of it this week, considering his injury. This running game doesn't break off many long runs, but it becomes more effective with more carries. After establishing a ground presence, Baltimore uses a ton of play action, but the Steelers are terrific defending the play-action passing game.
When Pittsburgh has the ball
Against the Chargers, QB
Ben Roethlisberger's numbers were not overwhelming, but he played a very efficient game and didn't show any ill effects from his Week 17 concussion. In the clutch, few can match Roethlisberger. He has plenty of suitable weapons to distribute the ball to, but WR
Hines Ward is the go-to guy, while WRs
Santonio Holmes and
Nate Washington bring a dangerous deep element. Although underused, TE
Heath Miller is also very solid, but the Ravens excel at limiting the tight end's production. Roethlisberger was sacked a league-high 46 times but still is a very difficult quarterback to get on the ground because of his elusiveness, size and strength. The Steelers' offensive linemen often are a liability one-on-one in pass protection and often misdiagnose oncoming rushers.
The Ravens have not gotten a lot of sacks, but they consistently pressure the quarterback and create havoc with their numerous blitz pressures that include plenty of zone and overload principles. They not only disguise their blitzes as well as any defense in the league, but also time their release adeptly. This is a defense loaded with aggressive, versatile and intelligent players, and Rex Ryan is the perfect defensive coordinator to use this group to the best of their immense abilities. Roethlisberger will see personnel groupings with just two true defensive linemen, some five-linebacker groups and a 46 defense with a crowded line of scrimmage to go along with base 3-4 and 4-3 looks. Baltimore will use man and zone principles behind these fronts. Even before creating eight takeaways during their current postseason run, the Ravens led the NFL with 26 interceptions this season.
<table id="inlinetable" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><th style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Matchup to watch</th> </tr><tr valign="middle"> <td align="center"> <table border="0" cellpadding="6"> <tbody><tr> <td>
</td> <td>Ravens QB
Joe Flacco vs. Steelers SS
Troy Polamalu</td> <td>
</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </td> </tr> <tr valign="top"> <td> Flacco is very advanced for a rookie quarterback, and Cameron does a great job of keeping it simple for him with excellent protection and a dedicated running game. However, playing against the Steelers' defense and accounting for Polamalu is a very difficult chore for any quarterback, even though this will be the third meeting between these teams. There probably will not be a lot of looks thrown at Flacco that are not on tape from some point of this season, but Polamalu's ability to disguise his intentions and his immense overall playmaking ability is something that must be respected. </td></tr> </tbody></table>
Keys to
Success
<!--
Baltimore Keys To Success
-->
1Get off the field on defense: The Ravens have an elite defense, but it showed serious signs of fatigue last week in Tennessee. That is understandable -- this team has not had a week off since Week 2. But it's also an area of concern, especially considering that Baltimore is coming off yet another physical battle. Generally, this defense takes on and gets off blocks as well as any in the league, but that wasn't the case against the Titans. This is also a fantastic red zone defense. Not only are the Ravens a very good tackling defense, but they also are loaded with strikers at all levels.
2Protect Flacco: Cameron has a very good feel for his team and puts a premium on protecting Flacco, even if it means using a high percentage of two- and three-man route combinations. He has not been sacked in the postseason, but the biggest weakness in his game right now is his ability to decipher the blitz and adjust the protections accordingly. This is a problem against the Steelers, who finished second in the league in sacks. ROLB
James Harrison had 2.5 of the Steelers' five sacks in the first meeting, but the Ravens consistently put an extra offensive tackle to his side in the second game, which greatly limited his production. The Steelers' defense is very dangerous on the other side as well. LOLB
LaMarr Woodley had two of the Pittsburgh's four sacks against San Diego. Harrison and Woodley combined for 27.5 sacks this season. Coordinator Dick LeBeau invented the zone blitz, and his defense executes it as well as any in the league. LeBeau isn't bashful about bringing exotic pressures from anywhere on the field.
3Don't be so predictable: This is not a heavy risk-taking offense, but they have to show balance and cannot allow the Steelers to key on tendencies. They also use trick plays and unusual personnel groupings, making them quite difficult to prepare for. Backup QB
Troy Smith will take direct snaps out of the Wildcat formation. Baltimore will use plenty of groupings with three offensive tackles on the field or three backs in the backfield. Flacco also executes the no-huddle offense well and is quite comfortable from the shotgun. Although disciplined and well-coached versus the run, Pittsburgh's defense is extremely aggressive in pursuit. The Ravens are adept at using misdirection runs and should use plenty of these run calls in Pittsburgh. Baltimore will also use some jet action with its wide receivers to keep the backside contain player from crashing hard on the run. Allowing the Steelers to get a bead on its tendencies could spell doom for Baltimore.
Keys to
Success
<!--
Pittsburgh Keys To Success
-->
1Attack deep: The best way to beat the Ravens' defense is with big plays, because their cornerbacks can be vulnerable. Roethlisberger is a very good deep passer, and Holmes and especially Washington are dangerous. Washington is not a household name, but he is very fast and is capable of going up high and snatching the ball over most defenders. But his hands are still inconsistent. The Ravens' cornerbacks are improved, but they are probably still the biggest weakness on this defense.
Samari Rolle is fighting a shoulder injury, and his replacement,
Frank Walker, is very beatable. Don't be surprised to see a fair amount of three-wide-receiver sets to attack this secondary.
2Get the backs involved: While RB
Willie Parker has historically struggled against Baltimore, he was excellent last week against San Diego. He is fresh and healthy for the first time in a while, which makes the Steelers' offense far more balanced. Parker attacked the Chargers' defense with conviction. He isn't as elusive or as dangerous a receiving threat as Titans RB
Chris Johnson, but he does have similar blazing speed. Before leaving with an injury, Johnson gave the Ravens fits. RB
Mewelde Moore's ability as a pass-catcher also could be useful to attack the edges of Baltimore's defense and an ailing
Terrell Suggs. Using Moore as a safety valve and screen receiver could also help slow down the Ravens' daunting pass rush. Baltimore has already allowed 17 receptions by running backs during the playoffs.
3Limit Ngata's impact:
Ray Lewis and
Ed Reed get the most publicity on this defense, but DT
Haloti Ngata makes the whole thing work. He is an amazing specimen with terrific size, extreme power, rare movement skills and tremendous versatility for such a big man. He will usually line up on the nose but can be at any technique along the interior of the defensive line and actually lines up in a two-point stance at times. Ngata can two-gap or shoot gaps to penetrate and even has the ability to drop into short zones in coverage. The Ravens allowed just 3.6 yards per carry for the regular season and Ngata is a huge reason why. This defense is tremendous in the red zone, and moving this man out of the middle in short-yardage situations is extremely difficult. Ngata's importance to this defense could be magnified this week because of Suggs' shoulder injury. Blocking Suggs with a tight end or running back is fruitless, and his immense contributions will be greatly missed if he is ineffective. The much-maligned Steelers offensive line deserves a lot of credit for last week's performance, but this week will provide a much stiffer test.
Scouts Edge
Choosing the Scouts Inc. Advantage was a difficult chore and nearly every selection could have gone either way. Heinz Field, which is notoriously an awful surface, was in excellent shape last week and the expected harsh weather should not favor either team or quarterback because both Roethlisberger and Flacco grew up and played their college ball in this area of the country. The winning playoff formula is playing great defense and limiting turnovers. Both teams are very capable of accomplishing this feat and the Ravens have excelled with this of late. However, in the end of a brutal confrontation, we expect the home team to emerge victorious. The Steelers are the much fresher team and have already defeated the Ravens twice. This will be a grueling game, but the Steelers advance to the Super Bowl. <table id="inlinetable" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr><th colspan="2" style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Prediction</th></tr><tr valign="top"><td align="center">
</td><td valign="middle" width="100%">Baltimore 17
Pittsburgh 23</td></tr></tbody></table>