Yes, they played well the last two weeks. Obviously, they did not play well against Troy, but that fact weakens your argument since they have had better performances since then. They covered against UT two weeks ago, and then they would have covered last week if the line had been set at +6 or +7 where the power ratings and situation said it should have been. (OSU was in an exceptional bounceback situation.) The Tigers have exceeded expectations the last two weeks, which is not what teams in shambles tend to do. If a lot has changed since last week, that's something else, but the suspension of a tailback doesn't seem like enough to me.
And now that I think about it, MU pushed three weeks ago and covered the two games before that. What kind of shambles is that?