For people who invest vs gamble

[GoUH]

The point spread only comes into play for 18% of all lined games. That means, 82% of the time, the points don't even matter! This % includes all those games that are at -10, -14 etc.

Therefore, one would suppose that small spreads probably come into play less than 18% of the time (let's say 15% for the purposes of this augument).

Now, take your average dog +3, ML +140. If you just blindly bet all the small dogs on the ML, and the point spread continued to only come into play 15% of the time, woudn't you end up ahead at the end of every season?

Seems too easy. Someone tell me why this is a bad idea. Thanks for your input.

PS MNF will end with Jets by 7, 24-17. Therefore, no play for me.

 

[Kruser6]

???

If you really think the Jets are going to win by 7 which I might add, They will win by much more then that. . . Then buy 1/2 a point and bet the Jets!!!

 

[kidslick]

underdogs this year 7 point range have been a cash cow this year with many of them winning outright..

 

[upsman]

Never saw a person who could predict a score.You must have a crystal ball.

 

[ElIguana]

GoUH, although playing 3 point dogs can be profitable, there is a flaw in your logic: Lines only come into play 18% of the time, but that still doesn't tell a person which side to pick....in other words, just because the line does not come into play, you still have to pick a side, and (all other things aside) this is statistically 50/50. If you have it figured out beyond this, please explain it to us.

 

[GoUH]

First, tonight is no play cause I think the game will end with a 7 point win by the Jets. Given this thought, I'm not buy a half a point either way just to make a bet tonight.

Point spread comes into play 18% of the time.

Fro example
Team A -5
Team B

The 5 points come into play 18% of the time. Therefore, 72% of the time, either Team B wins outright, or Team A covers the spread. If you figure that the linesmakers made an honest line, then 50% of the time, Team A (-5) would cover the spread (I suspect it is lower than that given the publics infatuation with favorites). That would mean that 32% of the time, Team B would win outright

Team B ML would be around +180.

If you played teams @ +180 ML and won 32% of the time, wouldn't that be a profitable situation?

 

[Thunder]

You would lose $20 for every three bets at a 33% clip at +180

Bet 1 $100 loses
Bet 2 $100 loses
Bet 3 $100 at +180 wins

You just put up $300 to get $280....

 

[dalejr]

If you are so sure the Jets are gonna win by 7, play THEM on the ml
Good Luck!

 

[mhk]

@ SIA : Jets by 6-10 +210.

 

[GoUH]

Okay, you guus are killing me.

I played the Jets -6.5 (-118) Pinny 1 unit.

Fish hate the cold. Win over the Rams at home was an anomoly, and plus, the Rams are an overrated dome team.

GL :toothless