Football Wagering: Which Situation Do You Like The Best And Why?

[wantitall4moi]

Kind of funny the brak down points. I tracked the spread from last year and saw something pretty interesting.

Last year was a banner year in relative terms for favorites. BUT the books also made those favorites quite a bit larger than the 3 or 4 years before.

Meaning there were more 3.5 to 7 point faves than the year before, they mostly cut into the 3 and below faves, as the 7+ fave numbers didn't change.

Basically I think they did it for two reasons. One, they (linesmakers) knew the hype that had surrounded the dogs for the past couple years. You could almost bet dogs blind and make money. I mean dogs were winning so often thateven the "public" that is a predominantly favorite betting entity. was starting to actually bet the dogs.

So they basically enticed guys into betting even more dogs than they might have. I know how everyone gets hard over a half point, they were giving more than that. May have been a slight gamble, but in any case it worked, as not only did these faves, that were strapped with the slightly larger spreads win, they covered, and quite easilly.

I am sure that anyone with a database can confirm this. I won't post the specifics, since it was a one year short term thing. But does it matter? Guys went into last year thinking dog first. And when the faves kept winning it was the sameo old novice attitude "dogs will win eventually" well they never did. So it was two fold. They got the guys early, and they got the guys chasing.

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

I handicap the games, individually, one by one. Most of the time I do not even know lines. Lines just balance. What if your 2 point home dog got bet into a 3 point home fave? What about the infamous picks? Generally speaking, I take more dogs, and more home dogs. I rarely lay, even rarer on road. I think situational like gator coach says. I cap the games, then look at the spots. Then I shop for numbers. Football has the largest true homefield advantage in any sport. By far. Colleges are easier to beat than pros. But with the contests, I have 4 carib entries and am working on getting in the Hilton, the money there is with pros. If there was a situation I prefer, it is with home team. Best Wishes...OF

 

[CoachLT]

Froggie brings up a good point for me in that I think that college is way easier to beat than the pros. My ? to the successful guys that we have here is do you play more on college or more on the pros? And by how much? I personally only buy a small ticket to a pro game where if I really like a college game, I will play as much as 5 times as much as I will on the pro game. When I play a pro game, I am hoping and when playing a college game, I am a lot more confident. I rarely ever lay points on the road. Thoughts, please. LT

OBTW, Hello, Ted. Good to see you back.

 

[Fishhead]

90% of my NFL plays will be on the underdog.

 

[oldmanTED]

Great responses so far. A brief clarification is in order here. Only after I complete fundamental handicapping of each game, looking at position by position player match-ups both offensively and defensively, special teams, coaching, injuries, weather and various other intangibles, do I bring into play the four situations listed at the top of this thread, as each game will fall into one of these categories unless the game is a pick. Plus, OF has a valid point regarding opening and closing lines that could shift the role of the team.

As some discussion and questions have arisen regarding college versus pro football, let me say that value is easier to find in college then pros as there are more games to choose from each week, thereby presenting more opportunities for value. The lines tend to be softer in college than the pros for a variety of reasons and one can easily notice this by the difference in the wide range of line movement in college versus the pros.

That being said, LT raised a question regarding whether or not we wager more on college than pros. I can only speak for myself in responding. As many of you know, my wagers range from between 1%-5% of my bankroll with most being more around 1% and the 5% plays being a rarity. For me, it makes no difference whether the game is either a college or pro game provided the fundamentals are in order. Once a side or total has been determined to be strong enough to be playable, I will wager a similiar percentage on a game if my criteria has been satisfied.

 

[nomad]

Old One, excellent thread that brought some things to mind. I honestly believe that money can be made following the so-called "mid major" conferences simply because the books and most players don't keep close tabs on them--which is surpising because of all the info available on the net. Mid American Conference is one. 2-3 years ago, a friend cleaned up just betting the overs in Akron games--he knew from august on that they'd score a lot of points and give up a lot. The books never seemed to adjust. I'm still kicking myself for not following his advice.

If I had the time and patience, I'd love to just immerse myself in the MAC or the Mountain West. Lots of people know lots about Ohio State, but how many know anything about Ohio U (other than that they're REALLY terrible)?

As far as what I look for in the NFL...home dogs of 7' or more...and more often than not I'll play the ML on 'em.

Hope you are doing well and look forward to your posts this Fall.

 

[Blutarsky]

Omnivorous Frog you mentioned getting into the Hilton contest. I was thinking about doing the same, are you using a proxy? If so how does it work. Do you have to give proxy SS#? or just the Hilton when you signup. What are reputable proxies to use? any info would be appreciated.

 

[OMNIVOROUS FROG]

This has been one of the better threads as of late. Thanks OMT. As far as college vs. pro nomad is right. Those non elite conferences get overlooked, and are generally undervalued. So are the dregs. Last year I just cashed on crappy Rutgers, week after week, especially 2nd halves. I will have an easier time finding a fundamentally sound game for my positions, on lower level college games. To me, the lines are much weaker. The pros lines are weaker to start, but after 3-4 games, tighten way up. Ted, you go through same processes as me, close to exact. Blutarsky, the NFL Hilton I am a cherry. There was another thread which had some great input. I am hoping Kiss1 meets his quota and is my proxy. But if not, I will use anyone who is willing and able for the right price. Quickie trip to Vegas is required. Best Wishes...OF

This NY/NY game has the worst pitching imaginable. What is Contrares excuse now that his family is here?

 

[Blutarsky]

I look at time of possession for both teams from previous weeks game seeing if defenses were out there for more than 30+ minutes, if both teams defenses were out for that time I lean towards over bets.

 

[Blutarsky]

Thanks OF I'll find a proxy, I'm not missing it this year.

 

[CoachLT]

Froggie, I was with you on Rutgers. Rutgers blew a late lead on last game to lose a perfect season ATS. Last year was a VERY GOOD YEAR! Hope we repeat this year. It can't get here soon enough. LT

 

[exilarch]

Rushing stats. I will be handicapping exclusively with rushing stats this year. I am expecting a big year in foots.

 

[TomorrowsNewspaper+]

I look for the game that everyone, their brother and their pig likes and then go the other way. I am in a football pool with 150 people. It is against the line. I take the 5 most lopsided games and fade them. 2 years ago I lost only once the whole year doing this. Last year was good but not as good.

The public is always wrong.