THE SHRINK
ODU GURU
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Since it's the slow season, I felt I'd post about the NFL after reading a thread on which sport is best from the bookmaker's perspective..
Mainly, I was wondering if you think I answered this question so that a lay person and/or recreational gambler would be able to understand it...
Feel free to chime in whether you agree or not...
Thanks,
Ken
Tell me a little bit about teasers and parlays.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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Shrink: Teasers and parlays were often seen as “sucker” bets - for squares only. Books used to love them until many syndicates figured out they could make money, especially with teaser bets. The number three is the most important betting number in Football. Bookmakers dread this fact. For example, if they get loaded up on a team - let’s say the Patriots are favored by three over the Colts, and the whole world keeps betting on the Patriots - rather than moving past three points they will quite often stay on the three and charge more juice, sometimes as high as 40% or more. Wiser bookmakers do this to prevent themselves from getting sided or middled depending on how far off the three some of them move. I have seen bookmakers get too aggressive and close with the Patriots as a five-point favorite. If the game lands on four, they get middled and lose almost all their action because virtually everyone who took the Patriots laid three, whereas if they bet on the Colts, they received five points. This is the bookies worst nightmare and it happens more than they’d care to admit. Getting sided is only half as bad and occurs if the game were to land on Pats Winning be exactly three or five. <o></o>
<o> </o>
Regarding teasers, I will list three of the most common forms bet on by sharps. You should listen carefully. <o></o>
<o> </o>
--Never pay more than ten cents juice on two-team six-point teasers. Furthermore, a win and a tie should not be counted as a loss. This should be viewed as a push or you should find another shop to wager with.<o></o>
<o> </o>
--Regarding three-team ten-point teasers, never pay more than 20 cents juice. In these cases, it is common for a tie and two wins to count as a loss. <o></o>
<o> </o>
--Lastly, if you bet on three-team six-point teasers, you must receive 9:5 odds and once again, ties don’t lose, they push. <o></o>
<o> </o>
Now if you really understand what I have been talking about, it should become apparent that you are getting so much more value when betting a ten-point teaser by teasing a team from minus five to plus five compared to teasing a ten-point favorite down to a Pick. In the first example, you are going through the number three on two occasions compared to only once in the second. Since bookmakers charge 30 cents to buy off of a three and only ten cents to buy off of any other number, the more you can go through the three on teasers, the more valuable it becomes for the player. Yet many intermediate level gamblers don’t get this concept
Mainly, I was wondering if you think I answered this question so that a lay person and/or recreational gambler would be able to understand it...
Feel free to chime in whether you agree or not...
Thanks,
Ken
Tell me a little bit about teasers and parlays.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
fficeffice" /><o></o><o
> </o>Shrink: Teasers and parlays were often seen as “sucker” bets - for squares only. Books used to love them until many syndicates figured out they could make money, especially with teaser bets. The number three is the most important betting number in Football. Bookmakers dread this fact. For example, if they get loaded up on a team - let’s say the Patriots are favored by three over the Colts, and the whole world keeps betting on the Patriots - rather than moving past three points they will quite often stay on the three and charge more juice, sometimes as high as 40% or more. Wiser bookmakers do this to prevent themselves from getting sided or middled depending on how far off the three some of them move. I have seen bookmakers get too aggressive and close with the Patriots as a five-point favorite. If the game lands on four, they get middled and lose almost all their action because virtually everyone who took the Patriots laid three, whereas if they bet on the Colts, they received five points. This is the bookies worst nightmare and it happens more than they’d care to admit. Getting sided is only half as bad and occurs if the game were to land on Pats Winning be exactly three or five. <o
></o><o
> </o>Regarding teasers, I will list three of the most common forms bet on by sharps. You should listen carefully. <o
></o><o
> </o>--Never pay more than ten cents juice on two-team six-point teasers. Furthermore, a win and a tie should not be counted as a loss. This should be viewed as a push or you should find another shop to wager with.<o
></o><o
> </o>--Regarding three-team ten-point teasers, never pay more than 20 cents juice. In these cases, it is common for a tie and two wins to count as a loss. <o
></o><o
> </o>--Lastly, if you bet on three-team six-point teasers, you must receive 9:5 odds and once again, ties don’t lose, they push. <o
></o><o
> </o>Now if you really understand what I have been talking about, it should become apparent that you are getting so much more value when betting a ten-point teaser by teasing a team from minus five to plus five compared to teasing a ten-point favorite down to a Pick. In the first example, you are going through the number three on two occasions compared to only once in the second. Since bookmakers charge 30 cents to buy off of a three and only ten cents to buy off of any other number, the more you can go through the three on teasers, the more valuable it becomes for the player. Yet many intermediate level gamblers don’t get this concept
