OK GUYS ABOUT 8 WEEKS OF REGUALR SEASON NEWSLETTERS LEFT. REDUCED PRICE TO $50 FOR THE REST OF NFL REGULAR SEASON THATS ABOUT $6 WEEK, TO GET THE FULL VERSIONS PLUS THE ONES I DO NOT POST. SPORTSGURU@SNET.NET
WINNINGPOINTS NEWSLETTER
SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS
BEST BETS
**** Oakland over *Detroit by 18
*** San Francisco over St. Louis by 13
RECOMMENDED PLAYS
*Houston over Carolina by 4
New York Giants over *New York Jets by 11
SUMMARY OF NFL TOTALS:
**OVER: Cincinnati at Arizona – Jon Kitna is on a rare hot streak and the Cardinals have allowed at least 30 points in nine of their last 17 games.
UNDER: New Orleans at Tampa Bay – The Bucs are coming off a shutout of a hot Dallas offense, while an improving Saints defense has given up an average of 18 points the last four games.
OVER: Green Bay at Minnesota – The Packers have gone above the total their last 10 games on carpet, and they’ve been unable to ever stop Randy Moss.
SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS
BEST BETS
**** CONNECTICUT* over WESTERN MICHIGAN by 28
*** TEXAS TECH* over COLORADO by 30
RECOMMENDED PLAYS
Maryland* over North Carolina by 31
Michigan over Michigan St.* by 15
Tennessee* over Duke by 14
Oregon State* over Arizona by 10
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF BEST BETS
****BEST BET
Oakland over *Detroit by 18
Mercifully the Raiders finally had a bye. The bye won. Just joking because this is a game the Raiders can easily win, just as they’ve done the past six years following their bye week. Since defeating the Cardinals opening week, the Lions have been absolutely terrible. QB Joey Harrington has thrown four touchdowns and 11 interceptions in the last six games. Without star rookie Charles Rogers, who remains sidelined, the Lions lack a quality wideout. Their running backs, Olandis Gary and Shawn Bryson, are nothing better than career backups asked to carry the load because of a season-ending injury to starting tailback James Stewart. Simply put, the Lions lack the personnel to execute Steve Mariucci’s offense. The Lions are actually older than the Raiders, with 17 players above 30. Injuries and bad management have done in the Lions. Harrington has lost his confidence, and Mariucci may have lost the team. At this stage he hasn’t done any better than his predecessor, Marty Mornhinweg. We like the Raiders in this spot even if Rich Gannon can’t go because of a shoulder injury sustained against the Chiefs. Backup QB Marques Tuiasosopo has had three years running Oakland’s offense in practice and will be well prepared if need be having had two weeks to get ready. With no preparation time, Tuiasosopo rallied the Raiders to within one yard of tying the AFC’s best team. Former Raiders coach Jon Gruden always was extremely high on Tuiasosopo. This would be a nice audition spot for Tuiasosopo, who is trying to prove himself to Bill Callahan. Tuiasosopo couldn’t ask for an easier secondary to throw against than the Lions’ injury-depleted unit. Getting deep threat Jerry Porter back is a key for the Raiders. Porter’s presence opens things up for graybeards Jerry Rice and Tim Brown. OAKLAND 31-13.
***BEST BET
*San Francisco over St. Louis by 13
It’s easy to pick on the 49ers for losing to the Cardinals last Sunday, which by the way should make them very mad for this matchup. The Rams, on the other hand, are sailing along with a four-game winning streak and may be getting Marshall Faulk back this week. Let’s not lose sight of several important factors, however. The Rams are a carpet team. They do not play well away from their Edward Jones Dome as evidenced by a 3-8 ATS mark their last 11 road contests. When the Rams defeated the Steelers this past Sunday in Pittsburgh, it marked just their second road victory in 11 tries. Recall, too, the first time these teams met this season back in Week 2. The Rams won in overtime, 27-24. But the 49ers probably would have won in regulation if wide receiver Cedric Wilson would have called a time-out as the final seconds of regulation ticked off. Wilson already had the 49ers in field goal range after catching a pass. Of course kicking field goals has become a wild adventure these days for San Francisco. They should take care of that problem this week after Owen Poachman missed two field goals against the Cardinals. Poachman had also missed three field goals the week before. The 49ers did, though, out-gain the Rams, 390-278. If they outplayed St. Louis that much on the road they should be at least equally impressive at home in a game they no longer can afford to lose. Go ahead point to the 49ers’ 3-5 mark if you will. Yes, it’s very disappointing. We’re not nominating Dennis Erickson for Coach of the Year. But do consider that four of the 49ers’ five losses have been by a total of eight points. Jeff Garcia is the most mobile quarterback the Rams have faced this season. He’ll cause them trouble. Those who enjoy looking at over/unders may note four of the last five in this series have gone above the total. SAN FRANCISCO 30-17.
****BEST BET
CONNECTICUT* over WESTERN MICHIGAN by 28
As we enter the month of November physical and psychological factors can combined for some unique handicapping situations, and this game gives us one of our very favorites. We have a home team playing with a tremendous amount of enthusiasm, with the Huskies managing to overcome a poor effort to win at the gun vs. Akron last week, elevating them to 6-3 and giving them a genuine life in the bowl picture. And while that wins gives them a renewed vigor, they will be taking on a lifeless road opponent that just might want to get this one over with. The Broncos enter this one off of their “triangle” showdown against the conference elite, and having been whipped by a combined 58 points vs. Bowling Green, Northern Illinois and Marshall they are not only physically worn down, but mentally they can no longer find a meaningful target for this season. We will actually get to lay a shorter price here because of the expected return of Western QB Chad Munson, but the bottom line is that the usual pride and joy of a Gary Darnell team, the defensive unit, has been the real culprit in this stretch. They allowed over 500 yards in each of those M.A.C. showdown games, allowing all three opponents to get a minimum of 224 yards both running and passing, and that can only spell blowout here vs. Dan Orlovsky (58% completions and 22 TD passes), Chris Bellamy (6.0 per carry since replacing the injured Terry Caulley), and that balanced Huskie attack. CONNECTICUT 45-17.
***BEST BET
TEXAS TECH* over COLORADO by 30
A combination of the flawless performances by Jason White, and the three interceptions that B. J. Symons threw in that loss at Missouri on Saturday has made the Red Raider QB the underdog for the Heisman Trophy at this juncture. But if anything that could create the impetus to take some brilliant numbers to a higher level, and with a pair of hapless defenses offering little challenge in the next two weeks (Baylor is on deck), get your calculators out. First note that Symons had anything but a “bad” game at Missouri, hitting 40-62 for 408 yards and three TD’s, but it was the Tech defense that afforded him no assistance in terms of winning the game. Now they face a downtrodden Colorado squad that might have been able to give its all in taking Oklahoma to the limit last week, but may have little left in the tank here. The Buffalo D.L. is extremely short on bodies, which has made the pass rush a non-factor all season, and that has taken a toll on the secondary in a major way. This pass defense rates among the nation’s very worst, with an awful ratio of 22 TD passes vs. only two interceptions, and that is hardly the resume that you want to show for yourself when facing this passing attack. Especially with Lubbock being a special atmosphere in the only Raider home game in a six week stretch - Symons and his receivers have only had two home games since the month of August, Big 12 romps over Texas A&M and Iowa State by a combined 62 points. TEXAS TECH 57-27.
WINNINGPOINTS NEWSLETTER
SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS
BEST BETS
**** Oakland over *Detroit by 18
*** San Francisco over St. Louis by 13
RECOMMENDED PLAYS
*Houston over Carolina by 4
New York Giants over *New York Jets by 11
SUMMARY OF NFL TOTALS:
**OVER: Cincinnati at Arizona – Jon Kitna is on a rare hot streak and the Cardinals have allowed at least 30 points in nine of their last 17 games.
UNDER: New Orleans at Tampa Bay – The Bucs are coming off a shutout of a hot Dallas offense, while an improving Saints defense has given up an average of 18 points the last four games.
OVER: Green Bay at Minnesota – The Packers have gone above the total their last 10 games on carpet, and they’ve been unable to ever stop Randy Moss.
SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS
BEST BETS
**** CONNECTICUT* over WESTERN MICHIGAN by 28
*** TEXAS TECH* over COLORADO by 30
RECOMMENDED PLAYS
Maryland* over North Carolina by 31
Michigan over Michigan St.* by 15
Tennessee* over Duke by 14
Oregon State* over Arizona by 10
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF BEST BETS
****BEST BET
Oakland over *Detroit by 18
Mercifully the Raiders finally had a bye. The bye won. Just joking because this is a game the Raiders can easily win, just as they’ve done the past six years following their bye week. Since defeating the Cardinals opening week, the Lions have been absolutely terrible. QB Joey Harrington has thrown four touchdowns and 11 interceptions in the last six games. Without star rookie Charles Rogers, who remains sidelined, the Lions lack a quality wideout. Their running backs, Olandis Gary and Shawn Bryson, are nothing better than career backups asked to carry the load because of a season-ending injury to starting tailback James Stewart. Simply put, the Lions lack the personnel to execute Steve Mariucci’s offense. The Lions are actually older than the Raiders, with 17 players above 30. Injuries and bad management have done in the Lions. Harrington has lost his confidence, and Mariucci may have lost the team. At this stage he hasn’t done any better than his predecessor, Marty Mornhinweg. We like the Raiders in this spot even if Rich Gannon can’t go because of a shoulder injury sustained against the Chiefs. Backup QB Marques Tuiasosopo has had three years running Oakland’s offense in practice and will be well prepared if need be having had two weeks to get ready. With no preparation time, Tuiasosopo rallied the Raiders to within one yard of tying the AFC’s best team. Former Raiders coach Jon Gruden always was extremely high on Tuiasosopo. This would be a nice audition spot for Tuiasosopo, who is trying to prove himself to Bill Callahan. Tuiasosopo couldn’t ask for an easier secondary to throw against than the Lions’ injury-depleted unit. Getting deep threat Jerry Porter back is a key for the Raiders. Porter’s presence opens things up for graybeards Jerry Rice and Tim Brown. OAKLAND 31-13.
***BEST BET
*San Francisco over St. Louis by 13
It’s easy to pick on the 49ers for losing to the Cardinals last Sunday, which by the way should make them very mad for this matchup. The Rams, on the other hand, are sailing along with a four-game winning streak and may be getting Marshall Faulk back this week. Let’s not lose sight of several important factors, however. The Rams are a carpet team. They do not play well away from their Edward Jones Dome as evidenced by a 3-8 ATS mark their last 11 road contests. When the Rams defeated the Steelers this past Sunday in Pittsburgh, it marked just their second road victory in 11 tries. Recall, too, the first time these teams met this season back in Week 2. The Rams won in overtime, 27-24. But the 49ers probably would have won in regulation if wide receiver Cedric Wilson would have called a time-out as the final seconds of regulation ticked off. Wilson already had the 49ers in field goal range after catching a pass. Of course kicking field goals has become a wild adventure these days for San Francisco. They should take care of that problem this week after Owen Poachman missed two field goals against the Cardinals. Poachman had also missed three field goals the week before. The 49ers did, though, out-gain the Rams, 390-278. If they outplayed St. Louis that much on the road they should be at least equally impressive at home in a game they no longer can afford to lose. Go ahead point to the 49ers’ 3-5 mark if you will. Yes, it’s very disappointing. We’re not nominating Dennis Erickson for Coach of the Year. But do consider that four of the 49ers’ five losses have been by a total of eight points. Jeff Garcia is the most mobile quarterback the Rams have faced this season. He’ll cause them trouble. Those who enjoy looking at over/unders may note four of the last five in this series have gone above the total. SAN FRANCISCO 30-17.
****BEST BET
CONNECTICUT* over WESTERN MICHIGAN by 28
As we enter the month of November physical and psychological factors can combined for some unique handicapping situations, and this game gives us one of our very favorites. We have a home team playing with a tremendous amount of enthusiasm, with the Huskies managing to overcome a poor effort to win at the gun vs. Akron last week, elevating them to 6-3 and giving them a genuine life in the bowl picture. And while that wins gives them a renewed vigor, they will be taking on a lifeless road opponent that just might want to get this one over with. The Broncos enter this one off of their “triangle” showdown against the conference elite, and having been whipped by a combined 58 points vs. Bowling Green, Northern Illinois and Marshall they are not only physically worn down, but mentally they can no longer find a meaningful target for this season. We will actually get to lay a shorter price here because of the expected return of Western QB Chad Munson, but the bottom line is that the usual pride and joy of a Gary Darnell team, the defensive unit, has been the real culprit in this stretch. They allowed over 500 yards in each of those M.A.C. showdown games, allowing all three opponents to get a minimum of 224 yards both running and passing, and that can only spell blowout here vs. Dan Orlovsky (58% completions and 22 TD passes), Chris Bellamy (6.0 per carry since replacing the injured Terry Caulley), and that balanced Huskie attack. CONNECTICUT 45-17.
***BEST BET
TEXAS TECH* over COLORADO by 30
A combination of the flawless performances by Jason White, and the three interceptions that B. J. Symons threw in that loss at Missouri on Saturday has made the Red Raider QB the underdog for the Heisman Trophy at this juncture. But if anything that could create the impetus to take some brilliant numbers to a higher level, and with a pair of hapless defenses offering little challenge in the next two weeks (Baylor is on deck), get your calculators out. First note that Symons had anything but a “bad” game at Missouri, hitting 40-62 for 408 yards and three TD’s, but it was the Tech defense that afforded him no assistance in terms of winning the game. Now they face a downtrodden Colorado squad that might have been able to give its all in taking Oklahoma to the limit last week, but may have little left in the tank here. The Buffalo D.L. is extremely short on bodies, which has made the pass rush a non-factor all season, and that has taken a toll on the secondary in a major way. This pass defense rates among the nation’s very worst, with an awful ratio of 22 TD passes vs. only two interceptions, and that is hardly the resume that you want to show for yourself when facing this passing attack. Especially with Lubbock being a special atmosphere in the only Raider home game in a six week stretch - Symons and his receivers have only had two home games since the month of August, Big 12 romps over Texas A&M and Iowa State by a combined 62 points. TEXAS TECH 57-27.
