<span class="ev_code_BLUE">WINNINGPOINTS FOOTBALL NEWSLETTER</span>
SUMMARY OF NCAA FOOTBALL PLAYS:
<span class="ev_code_RED">BEST BETS</span>
**** FRESNO STATE over WASHINGTON* by 13 (Sunday)
*** RICE* over HOUSTON by 11 (Sunday)
<span class="ev_code_BLUE">RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS</span>
** Arizona State* over U.T.E.P. by 12 (Thursday)
** Stanford* over San Jose State by 29
** Arkansas* over New Mexico State by 9
** Tennessee* over U.N.L.V. by 8 (Sunday)
<span class="ev_code_BLUE">Analysis of Best Bets</span>
<span class="ev_code_RED">****BEST BET</span>
FRESNO STATE over WASHINGTON* by 13 (Sunday)
Early season success can often come down to continuity and focus, and when we not only have those factors going for us but terrific line value as well, then it is easy to see why Pat Hill’s Bulldogs open the season at the top of the page. With 17 returning position starters from a team that played 14 games last year, plus both the punter and kicker Fresno State has a chance to open in mid-season form. Start with key skill people like QB Paul Pinegar (15-5 SU in his career), RB Dwayne Wright (1,076 yards at 5.5 per carry) to make the plays, and then add key “cluster” areas – they return every starter in the OL (further buoyed by the return from injury of Brian Morris), DL and secondary, and we have a team not that should find itself at a much higher gear than its re-building opponent on this day. Erratic Huskies (half of their 12 games last year finished more than 21 points from the spread) will struggle early to replace the big play talents of Cody Pickett and Reggie Williams, and with precious little depth in the trenches we have a rare case in which a home favorite from a stronger conference will lose the physical battles up front on both sides of the ball. But in truth the Pac 10/W.A.C. comparisons mean little here – Fresno State beat Oregon State and U.C.L.A. last year, and there is no intimidation at all at this site for a program that has played at Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Oregon, Oregon State, Colorado, U.C.L.A. and Ohio State in the careers of its fifth-year seniors. Only an “upset” because the wrong team is favored. FRESNO STATE 30-17
***BEST BET
RICE* over HOUSTON by 11 (Sunday)
The Art Briles era began at the University of Houston with a major show of fireworks when his Cougars destroyed cross-town rival 48-14 Rice in the opening game, and little did anyone know that it was only a small preview of what was to come. Under freshman QB Kevin Kolb a wide-open offense was executed to near perfection, and it carried them to seven regular season wins and a bowl appearance. But do not expect them to pick up where they left off, however. Now the opposition has had a chance to see these schemes and develop better defensive game plans, especially a veteran Owl defense that will spend most of fall camp preparing to atone for last year’s embarrassment. And upon further review there has to be an acknowledgment of the fact that the seven Cougar wins last year came over teams that finished with a combined 22-63 record (none finished with a winning record). The real key here is not Briles with his new offense, but rather Ken Hatfield of Rice going back to his old one. After experimenting with a more wide open look to begin 2003, Hatfield went back to the pure option after a mid-season drubbing vs. Navy, and the Owls exploded to the tune of 40.5 PPG and 489 YPG over the second half of the season. They out-scored the opposition by 91 points in that span, but a pair of tough 3-point defeats vs. bowl-bound Fresno State and Tulsa prevented a sweep. With eight starters back from that offense that momentum carries over, and they can dominate a Houston defense that allowed 5.1 per carry last year for some stylish revenge. RICE 42-31.
RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
Arizona State* over U.T.E.P. by 12 (Thursday)
So did Mike Price really want to clear his reputation and get back into coaching so badly that he settled for an outpost like El Paso? Not really. While personal behavior may be a question mark, football savvy never has been, and there is a lot more happening with the Miners than many would grasp. This was to have been the culmination season of Gary Nord’s “Five Year Plan”, which featured consistent red-shirting of recruits, and as a result Price inherits a roster filled with 23 red-shirt seniors, 17 returning starters, and 58 returning lettermen. The skill positions have enough playmakers to be able to backdoor this line if the need arises, but it may never get to that point, given the injury problems to the Sun Devil OL in fall camp that inhibits their development (three projected starters not ready to go yet). And given the 17-19 overall record under Dick Koetter, with no post-season wins, this host lacks the depth of talent and confidence to dominate many opponents. ARIZONA STATE 36-24 .
Stanford* over San Jose State by 29
While the top of the page this week has several selections on big underdogs against favorites that will not be margin-conscious, that is certainly not the case for Buddy Teevens here. With a program that is over-matched both in terms of talent and tactics (the latter an indictment of Teevens himself), a coach that wants to keep his job has to take care of business when he can. As such, Stanford is 3-0 ATS as favorites in his first two seasons, including a pair of routs over these Spartans by a combined 58 points, beating the spread by 26.5 in the process. Since the last time that the Cardinal took the field was that nationally televised 57-7 drubbing vs. Notre Dame to close out 2003, there is a bad taste that needs to be quickly erased from memory, and this is the perfect opponent. Spartans have only two returning starters on offense and do not threaten to sneak in via the back door, while the defense is once again over-matched vs. this class. STANFORD 42-13.
Arkansas* over New Mexico State by 9
Houston Nutt was so close to taking the head coaching job at Nebraska that a private jet was sent from Lincoln on January 2nd to pick him up. He never got on that plane, but part of why he entertained the notion can be seen when we view the current Razorback roster. Only one starter, QB Matt Jones, is back on offense, and only three starters return to the defensive unit. The OL does not even have a senior on the two-deep chart (only 10 scholarship seniors). That means a long and painful growing process on both sides of the ball, and it does not help that there is the major distraction of a home showdown with Texas on deck. Not an awkward trip for the Aggies, who lost but covered as a big underdog on this field last November, and the current seniors have also played at Texas twice, Georgia twice, South Carolina twice, Kansas State and Oregon State. That steady ground game, a defense that returns 10 starters, makes them competitive here. ARKANSAS 26-17.
Tennessee* over U.N.L.V. by 8 (Sunday)
Getting a big margin over a non-conference opponent that supplies no special motivation means that the favorite has to really want the margin. Phil Fulmer is not in that position at all here. With only this game standing before a showdown with Florida in two weeks, Fulmer needs to find the answers to a lot of questions, which makes the scoreboard a minor priority. Fulmer must carefully break in his freshman QB’s, throwing to a new corps of WR’s, and does not have an intimidating ground game to fall back on (only once in the last 10 years have the Volunteers averaged 200 rushing YPG). Meanwhile the defense has only two seniors on the two-deep chart, including none in the secondary, which currently shows only two juniors among the top eight, and just one returning starter. Meanwhile the scrappy Rebels are in a much different posture in what could be John Robinson’s final season, with 14 senior starters trying to set the tone for the campaign by competing to the wire here. TENNESSEE 27-19.
