THE SPORTS REPORTER
SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS:
SUPER BEST BET
CHICAGO over *NEW ORLEANS by 11
BEST BETS
HOUSTON over *TENNESSEE by 1
*GREEN BAY over KANSAS CITY by 11
RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
*SEATTLE over SAN FRANCISCO by 12
SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS:
SUPER BEST BET
*MISSOURI over NEBRASKA by 17
BEST BETS
*FLORIDA STATE over MIAMI-FLORIDA by 16
*LSU over FLORIDA by 19
RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
*MINNESOTA over MICHIGAN by 11
*OKLAHOMA STATE over KANSAS STATE by 8
NORTHERN ILLINOIS over *CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 7
*PURDUE over PENN STATE by 19
*MARSHALL over KENT STATE by 12
*ARIZONA STATE over OREGON by 7
*MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE over NEW MEXICO STATE by 13
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Detailed Analysis of Best Bet Selections
SUPER BEST BET
CHICAGO over *NEW ORLEANS by 11
If revenge means anything as a factor in football handicapping, it should mean a lot and even prove to be the deciding factor in this game. Flashback to week 3 of the 2002 season, when Chicago faced the New Orleans Saints. The Bears were coming off a 13-3 season and were off to a 2-0 start for the season and still thinking “hey, we’re a pretty darn good team!” The Bears went up on the Saints early and appeared on their way to 3-0 until costly special teams blunders let New Orleans back in the game by halftime. The Saints went on to win after an intensely fought fourth quarter, when they took the lead and proceeded to mercilessly taunt the Bears and their fans the whole time. As it turns out, the Bears have never been the same team since that game, failing to recover from that loss and going 3-14 SU ever since. Chicago isn’t much this year, but even if the Bears finish 2-14, they still should come out on top in this game, especially with some momentum from last week’s win. Additionally, key New Orleans injuries will only serve to make Chicago’s task even easier. The Saints’ were without nine starters the last two weeks (both losses), and most of those guys will not be back in time for this game. CHICAGO, 24-13.
BEST BET
HOUSTON over *TENNESSEE by 1
The theme here is time, and time again. Dom Capers has never lost an opening day game as an NFL head coach, and off his bye week last season, his lousy Texans offense made its best showing of the season, scoring 24 points to cover +7.5 against Buffalo by a hair. Last year’s bye gave Capers time to install a gimmick that worked: RB James Allen tossed a five-yard option pass to TE Billy Miller for a touchdown. His defensive plan for that game drew raves from opposing QB Drew Bledsoe, who afterwards said: “The Texans did a good job of taking away our passing game early. It was clear they wanted to stop our receivers. We knew we had to run the ball because of the way they were playing us.” Titans’ QB Steve McNair will probably be saying the same thing after this game. Capers will like his chances with Eddie George coming at his defense all afternoon. George’s average carry goes about as far as you can spit (2.8 yards). It will go just a little longer in this game, while the clock ticks away and Titans points are not going up on the board. The Texans know they can compete against this team. Houston lost to Tennessee by only 7 and 10 points last year in Weeks 10 and 17 of their expansion season, when both the offensive and defensive units were all banged-up with no place to go. Now it’s much earlier and they’re off a bye, with a 3-2 record and divisional-lead contention as goals to shoot for! HOUSTON, 14-13.
BEST BET
*GREEN BAY over KANSAS CITY by 11
Here’s one emphatic MVP vote for Kansas City’s Dante Hall, who has scored kick return touchdowns in four straight games (7 return TDs in the Chiefs’ last 10 games) and has been the spark-plug for the team during its 5-0 start. Hall was THE difference in KC’s come-frombehind win at home against previously unbeaten Denver last week, and also in their win at Baltimore the week before. But now Kansas City finds themselves in a major non-division letdown situation against the hot Packers, who started slowly in each of the last two Septembers. In September 2002, Green Bay was 0-4 ATS. But in October 2002, they played an average of 16 points better than the Vegas number with three straight wins and covers. Last Sunday, the first October game of 2003, Green Bay was 21 points better than the number against Seattle. With a divisional look-ahead road game at desperate Oakland on tap next week, the 5-0 SU Chiefs should be stuck in the middle of the ol’ grilled cheese sandwich up at the not-yet-frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, against what is looking like a bunch of green-and-yellow Mr. Octobers. Since Minnesota ended the Packers’ 11-game regular season home winning streak on opening day, Green Bay has since re-established its home dominance. Hall will need another miracle in order to save KC this week. GREEN BAY, 31-20.
SUPER BEST BET
*MISSOURI over NEBRASKA by 17
It’s quite a house of cards that the Huskers have built for themselves. Nebraska is knocking on the Top 10 door once again and is leading the nation in fewest yards allowed in total defense (218.6 YPG) to which we say, so what. The Huskers have played one legit team (Oklahoma State) and beat them more because of State’s penchant for turning the ball over
rather than anything they did. Four of their first five games were at home with the lone road win (So. Mississippi) over a team without its starting QB. Meanwhile, the Tigers rolled into Kansas two weeks ago undefeated and uninspired having won the previous year’s contest (36-12) with ease and left defeated for the first time this year. Missouri is an underdog with revenge and an extra week to prepare, with a veteran offense led by QB Brad Smith. We’ve probably already seen the best of what there is to see of Nebraska QB Jamaal Lord and his team’s running game, and we know the passing attack is sub-par unless they’ve been working it out under-cover somewhere. Missouri, 27-10.
BEST BET
*FLORIDA STATE over MIAMI-FLORIDA by 16
It’s the dawning of a new day. The ‘Canes aren’t scaring anyone these days and last week’s 22-20 non-cover win against 26-point underdog West Virginia was proof positive. Miami’s passing game is, well, inept, as QB Brock Berlin has shown little feel for this offense despite a 352-yard passing game in that aforementioned win against WVU. Berlin is prone to making the big mistake in the red zone and Florida State’s cat-quick defense will make him pay here. Won’t be surprised if the Seminoles pick off three or four Berlin aerials in this tilt, especially with the Miami running game not up to par with Frank Gore out. Florida State, meanwhile, must get a big game from QB Chris Rix who last year completed only 8-of-19 passes for 83 yards in the loss to Miami. But a rapport with WR raphonso Thorpe is evident. That duo strikes a couple of times here. Florida State, 33-17.
BEST BET
*LSU over FLORIDA by 19
There isn’t much we like about the Gators. The offense is not consistent, the defense doesn’t make big plays, and the coaching (Zook is 6-12 ATS) leaves much to be desired. The loss to Miami was a great exercise in how to coach a sure win into a defeat. They were lucky Jared Lorenzon threw an errant pass, or they would have lost to Kentucky. Last week, they refused to throw the ball downfield consistently vs. a defense that hasn’t stopped the pass since David Cutcliffe became head coach four years ago. That resulted in a failure to avenge a loss to the Rebels.Wow! LSU (5-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) was off last week, is well-coached, well-stocked on both sides of the ball, does not beat itself, does not have a boatload of freshmen on the roster like Florida does, and will be happy to kick the Gators while they’re down. LSU, 36-17.
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PLAYBOOK BY MARK LAWRENCE
UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK
Florida over LSU by 6
If Florida has ever had a revenge game in their storied history, this has to be it. Lsu went into the Swamp last season as an eight point underdog and beat the Gators every which way you can beat a team. Florida would love to return the favor. One problem. Florida struggled mightily to gain a split with defenseless Kentucky and more defenseless Ole Miss. The Bengals can play “D”. We respect the Gators' 9-1 ATS mark as conference dogs, though, and can only look their way today. Upset in the Bayou!
SUMMARY OF 5 STAR PLAYS:
VIRGINIA TECH
DOLPHINS
RAVENS UNDER
SUMMARY OF 4 STAR PLAYS:
KANSAS
JETS
BRONCOS OVER
SUMMARY OF 3 STAR PLAYS:
TEXAS A&M
STEELERS
BILLS UNDER
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Detailed Analysis of Rated Star Selections
5 BEST BET
Miami over JACKSONVILLE by 14
The Dolphins hurdled a huge obstacle with their impressive win in New York last week but, believe it or not, Miami would gladly trade that win for a rout of these Jaguars. The worst game in Miami Dolphin history took place on this field in '99. Miami was beheaded 62-7 by the Jags and, to make it worse, was eliminated from the playoffs at the same time. Miami takes its 15-2 ATS mark against avenging foes and 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 division road games. Seattle has gotten revenge in seven of its last ten tries within the division. Remember, that no one has burned more money over the last season and a half than San Francisco. Niners own better 'O' and better 'D' and are the dog.
5 BEST BET
VIRGINIA TECH over Syracuse by 31
Last year, Tech went rolling into the Carrier Dome as 11.5 point chalk and came out with a 50-42 loss. Tech was 8-1 before that day and was reeling from a rare home loss the week before to Pittsburgh. Syracuse is up against these horrible numbers: the Orange are just 4-23 ATS on the road against .600 or better foes and revenging Big East home favorites are 18-1 SUATS if they scored 40 or more points in their previous game. Add in our Incredible Stat of the Week (page 3) and you know why we're chanting, "Hokie, Hokie, Hokie Hi. Play the boys from VPI."
4 BEST BET
Kansas over COLORADO by 10
Colorado has been favored by at least 16 points in each of the last nine meetings with Kansas on this field. This line appears to be a value but that butt-whipping absorbed at Baylor by the Buffs tells the story. Despite an intense two weeks of practice in which Gary Barnett challenged every player on his team, Colorado couldn’t handle the mediocre Bears. The Jayhawks are playing with renewed confidence under Mark Mangino. They also own the better numbers on both sides of the ball. KU cashes for the 8th time in their last 11 visits to Boulder, leaving their mark with another SU win! wood seven times in a row in this series and are 8-1 ATS as Sooner dogs.
4 BEST BET
NY JETS over Buffalo by 10
The Bills high-powered offense has generated only 33 points in regulation time in their last three games. That won’t get it done in the NFL. The Jets are 14-2-1 ATS as division dogs against opponents off a SU win and 14-1 ATS after scoring less than 10. Buffalo, meanwhile, is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 division road games. We cement it with our Awesome Angle (page 2) and also knowing rested, winless teams in the NFL are 20-5 ATS vs. an opponent off an ATS loss. Marc Lawrence's BEAT THE PRO pick in this game is on NY Jets.
SUMMARY OF NFL PLAYS:
SUPER BEST BET
CHICAGO over *NEW ORLEANS by 11
BEST BETS
HOUSTON over *TENNESSEE by 1
*GREEN BAY over KANSAS CITY by 11
RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
*SEATTLE over SAN FRANCISCO by 12
SUMMARY OF NCAA PLAYS:
SUPER BEST BET
*MISSOURI over NEBRASKA by 17
BEST BETS
*FLORIDA STATE over MIAMI-FLORIDA by 16
*LSU over FLORIDA by 19
RECOMMENDED SELECTIONS
*MINNESOTA over MICHIGAN by 11
*OKLAHOMA STATE over KANSAS STATE by 8
NORTHERN ILLINOIS over *CENTRAL MICHIGAN by 7
*PURDUE over PENN STATE by 19
*MARSHALL over KENT STATE by 12
*ARIZONA STATE over OREGON by 7
*MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE over NEW MEXICO STATE by 13
------------------------------------------------------------
Detailed Analysis of Best Bet Selections
SUPER BEST BET
CHICAGO over *NEW ORLEANS by 11
If revenge means anything as a factor in football handicapping, it should mean a lot and even prove to be the deciding factor in this game. Flashback to week 3 of the 2002 season, when Chicago faced the New Orleans Saints. The Bears were coming off a 13-3 season and were off to a 2-0 start for the season and still thinking “hey, we’re a pretty darn good team!” The Bears went up on the Saints early and appeared on their way to 3-0 until costly special teams blunders let New Orleans back in the game by halftime. The Saints went on to win after an intensely fought fourth quarter, when they took the lead and proceeded to mercilessly taunt the Bears and their fans the whole time. As it turns out, the Bears have never been the same team since that game, failing to recover from that loss and going 3-14 SU ever since. Chicago isn’t much this year, but even if the Bears finish 2-14, they still should come out on top in this game, especially with some momentum from last week’s win. Additionally, key New Orleans injuries will only serve to make Chicago’s task even easier. The Saints’ were without nine starters the last two weeks (both losses), and most of those guys will not be back in time for this game. CHICAGO, 24-13.
BEST BET
HOUSTON over *TENNESSEE by 1
The theme here is time, and time again. Dom Capers has never lost an opening day game as an NFL head coach, and off his bye week last season, his lousy Texans offense made its best showing of the season, scoring 24 points to cover +7.5 against Buffalo by a hair. Last year’s bye gave Capers time to install a gimmick that worked: RB James Allen tossed a five-yard option pass to TE Billy Miller for a touchdown. His defensive plan for that game drew raves from opposing QB Drew Bledsoe, who afterwards said: “The Texans did a good job of taking away our passing game early. It was clear they wanted to stop our receivers. We knew we had to run the ball because of the way they were playing us.” Titans’ QB Steve McNair will probably be saying the same thing after this game. Capers will like his chances with Eddie George coming at his defense all afternoon. George’s average carry goes about as far as you can spit (2.8 yards). It will go just a little longer in this game, while the clock ticks away and Titans points are not going up on the board. The Texans know they can compete against this team. Houston lost to Tennessee by only 7 and 10 points last year in Weeks 10 and 17 of their expansion season, when both the offensive and defensive units were all banged-up with no place to go. Now it’s much earlier and they’re off a bye, with a 3-2 record and divisional-lead contention as goals to shoot for! HOUSTON, 14-13.
BEST BET
*GREEN BAY over KANSAS CITY by 11
Here’s one emphatic MVP vote for Kansas City’s Dante Hall, who has scored kick return touchdowns in four straight games (7 return TDs in the Chiefs’ last 10 games) and has been the spark-plug for the team during its 5-0 start. Hall was THE difference in KC’s come-frombehind win at home against previously unbeaten Denver last week, and also in their win at Baltimore the week before. But now Kansas City finds themselves in a major non-division letdown situation against the hot Packers, who started slowly in each of the last two Septembers. In September 2002, Green Bay was 0-4 ATS. But in October 2002, they played an average of 16 points better than the Vegas number with three straight wins and covers. Last Sunday, the first October game of 2003, Green Bay was 21 points better than the number against Seattle. With a divisional look-ahead road game at desperate Oakland on tap next week, the 5-0 SU Chiefs should be stuck in the middle of the ol’ grilled cheese sandwich up at the not-yet-frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, against what is looking like a bunch of green-and-yellow Mr. Octobers. Since Minnesota ended the Packers’ 11-game regular season home winning streak on opening day, Green Bay has since re-established its home dominance. Hall will need another miracle in order to save KC this week. GREEN BAY, 31-20.
SUPER BEST BET
*MISSOURI over NEBRASKA by 17
It’s quite a house of cards that the Huskers have built for themselves. Nebraska is knocking on the Top 10 door once again and is leading the nation in fewest yards allowed in total defense (218.6 YPG) to which we say, so what. The Huskers have played one legit team (Oklahoma State) and beat them more because of State’s penchant for turning the ball over
rather than anything they did. Four of their first five games were at home with the lone road win (So. Mississippi) over a team without its starting QB. Meanwhile, the Tigers rolled into Kansas two weeks ago undefeated and uninspired having won the previous year’s contest (36-12) with ease and left defeated for the first time this year. Missouri is an underdog with revenge and an extra week to prepare, with a veteran offense led by QB Brad Smith. We’ve probably already seen the best of what there is to see of Nebraska QB Jamaal Lord and his team’s running game, and we know the passing attack is sub-par unless they’ve been working it out under-cover somewhere. Missouri, 27-10.
BEST BET
*FLORIDA STATE over MIAMI-FLORIDA by 16
It’s the dawning of a new day. The ‘Canes aren’t scaring anyone these days and last week’s 22-20 non-cover win against 26-point underdog West Virginia was proof positive. Miami’s passing game is, well, inept, as QB Brock Berlin has shown little feel for this offense despite a 352-yard passing game in that aforementioned win against WVU. Berlin is prone to making the big mistake in the red zone and Florida State’s cat-quick defense will make him pay here. Won’t be surprised if the Seminoles pick off three or four Berlin aerials in this tilt, especially with the Miami running game not up to par with Frank Gore out. Florida State, meanwhile, must get a big game from QB Chris Rix who last year completed only 8-of-19 passes for 83 yards in the loss to Miami. But a rapport with WR raphonso Thorpe is evident. That duo strikes a couple of times here. Florida State, 33-17.
BEST BET
*LSU over FLORIDA by 19
There isn’t much we like about the Gators. The offense is not consistent, the defense doesn’t make big plays, and the coaching (Zook is 6-12 ATS) leaves much to be desired. The loss to Miami was a great exercise in how to coach a sure win into a defeat. They were lucky Jared Lorenzon threw an errant pass, or they would have lost to Kentucky. Last week, they refused to throw the ball downfield consistently vs. a defense that hasn’t stopped the pass since David Cutcliffe became head coach four years ago. That resulted in a failure to avenge a loss to the Rebels.Wow! LSU (5-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) was off last week, is well-coached, well-stocked on both sides of the ball, does not beat itself, does not have a boatload of freshmen on the roster like Florida does, and will be happy to kick the Gators while they’re down. LSU, 36-17.
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PLAYBOOK BY MARK LAWRENCE
UPSET SPECIAL OF THE WEEK
Florida over LSU by 6
If Florida has ever had a revenge game in their storied history, this has to be it. Lsu went into the Swamp last season as an eight point underdog and beat the Gators every which way you can beat a team. Florida would love to return the favor. One problem. Florida struggled mightily to gain a split with defenseless Kentucky and more defenseless Ole Miss. The Bengals can play “D”. We respect the Gators' 9-1 ATS mark as conference dogs, though, and can only look their way today. Upset in the Bayou!
SUMMARY OF 5 STAR PLAYS:
VIRGINIA TECH
DOLPHINS
RAVENS UNDER
SUMMARY OF 4 STAR PLAYS:
KANSAS
JETS
BRONCOS OVER
SUMMARY OF 3 STAR PLAYS:
TEXAS A&M
STEELERS
BILLS UNDER
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Detailed Analysis of Rated Star Selections
5 BEST BET
Miami over JACKSONVILLE by 14
The Dolphins hurdled a huge obstacle with their impressive win in New York last week but, believe it or not, Miami would gladly trade that win for a rout of these Jaguars. The worst game in Miami Dolphin history took place on this field in '99. Miami was beheaded 62-7 by the Jags and, to make it worse, was eliminated from the playoffs at the same time. Miami takes its 15-2 ATS mark against avenging foes and 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 division road games. Seattle has gotten revenge in seven of its last ten tries within the division. Remember, that no one has burned more money over the last season and a half than San Francisco. Niners own better 'O' and better 'D' and are the dog.
5 BEST BET
VIRGINIA TECH over Syracuse by 31
Last year, Tech went rolling into the Carrier Dome as 11.5 point chalk and came out with a 50-42 loss. Tech was 8-1 before that day and was reeling from a rare home loss the week before to Pittsburgh. Syracuse is up against these horrible numbers: the Orange are just 4-23 ATS on the road against .600 or better foes and revenging Big East home favorites are 18-1 SUATS if they scored 40 or more points in their previous game. Add in our Incredible Stat of the Week (page 3) and you know why we're chanting, "Hokie, Hokie, Hokie Hi. Play the boys from VPI."
4 BEST BET
Kansas over COLORADO by 10
Colorado has been favored by at least 16 points in each of the last nine meetings with Kansas on this field. This line appears to be a value but that butt-whipping absorbed at Baylor by the Buffs tells the story. Despite an intense two weeks of practice in which Gary Barnett challenged every player on his team, Colorado couldn’t handle the mediocre Bears. The Jayhawks are playing with renewed confidence under Mark Mangino. They also own the better numbers on both sides of the ball. KU cashes for the 8th time in their last 11 visits to Boulder, leaving their mark with another SU win! wood seven times in a row in this series and are 8-1 ATS as Sooner dogs.
4 BEST BET
NY JETS over Buffalo by 10
The Bills high-powered offense has generated only 33 points in regulation time in their last three games. That won’t get it done in the NFL. The Jets are 14-2-1 ATS as division dogs against opponents off a SU win and 14-1 ATS after scoring less than 10. Buffalo, meanwhile, is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 division road games. We cement it with our Awesome Angle (page 2) and also knowing rested, winless teams in the NFL are 20-5 ATS vs. an opponent off an ATS loss. Marc Lawrence's BEAT THE PRO pick in this game is on NY Jets.
