Football Futures

[Moon88]

At first glance Jacksonville maybe the darkhorse amongst this group

Football Futures
2005 AFC Championship - Odds to win


201 New England Patriots +400
202 Kansas City Chiefs +650
203 Indianapolis Colts +400
204 Tennessee Titans +1000
205 Denver Broncos +1200
206 Miami Dolphins +1200
207 Baltimore Ravens +550
208 New York Jets +1400
209 Pittsburgh Steelers +2500
210 Buffalo Bills +2000
211 Cincinnati Bengals +2000
212 Jacksonville Jaguars +1400
213 Cleveland Browns +2000
214 Oakland Raiders +1200
215 San Diego Chargers +10000
217 Houston Texans +5000

 

[wilheim]

I like the Jags to be tuff to beat this year but need a bit more than 14 to 1 to play them to make it to SB. 12-1 Broncos has a better shot imo of cashing.


wil.

 

[Fishhead]

This may be Manning and Clarks year for the Colts!!

 

[TheFunkMonkey]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wilheim:
I like the Jags to be tuff to beat this year but need a bit more than 14 to 1 to play them to make it to SB. 12-1 Broncos has a better shot imo of cashing.


wil.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Yep, I like the Broncos (based on value).

Don't think they'll miss Portis too much. How many good RBs has Denver replaced? They have a great system, the RB doesn't matter too much.

Jake Plummer (when he was healthy) was a great fit for Denver's offense, have to assume an extra summer will only help him.

Defense should be decent (at worst).

Denver plays in a relatively weak division. Maybe the Raiders will be good, maybe they won't. Maybe the Chargers will be good...haha.

I think the Chiefs have been exposed. They shouldn't be a threat in 2004.

If Denver plays well, they can get home-field advantage. Gotta love the Broncs @ home during the playoffs.

 

[Moon88]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wilheim:
I like the Jags to be tuff to beat this year but need a bit more than 14 to 1 to play them to make it to SB. 12-1 Broncos has a better shot imo of cashing.


wil.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Actually Broncos look like a decent play. Thanks Wil

 

[justdoit+]

Wil,I love the Jags this year as a darkhorse.They've got all the key elements and the city is hosting the superbowl and they are excited! I was just in Jacksonville 2 weeks ago and they are pumped.I'm a Dolphins fan but will enjoy watching the jags.

Can't wait til kickoff

 

[TheFunkMonkey]

Jags will definitely be better this year. But will their record really show it?

They play in one of the toughest divisions. Indy, Tenn, Houston. Also have to play @ Buffalo, Denver, KC, @ Minny, @ GB.

What a tough schedule. Buffalo/Minny/GB aren't great, but they're good. And you could argue they've got the three best home-field advantages in the NFL. Ralph Wilson Stadium, Lambeau, Baggy Dome.

 

[wilheim]

Something bothered me the other day about the Jags. I saw a picture of Byron Leftwich (somehwere) and he looked fat. I don't know if it was even a current pic. but his faced had a bloated look to it. Most likely it means nothing, time quite natrually will tell.


wil.

 

[TheFunkMonkey]

Was it during the ESPYs?

Leftwich has always been chubby. Are you sure he was chubbier than normal?

 

[wilheim]

FM - your right it was the ESPYs, there was just a quick shot of him. He just looked fat, probably meaningless.


wil.

 

[REDEYE]

Chiefs still the team to beat in West.I wouldn't want to place my hopes on Plummer to get into the playoffs. He still has to prove something to me.Shanahan is overated, No Elway, No Playoffs.I see a rematch in title game Colts and Pats.Ravens, assuming Lewis will be playing, will be tough.I like the Seahawks to come out of NFC

 

[TheGeneral+]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by FISHHEAD:
This may be Manning and Clarks year for the Colts!!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Yep

 

[Moon88]

 

[wantitall4moi]

I am assuming those numbers came from Canbet, and other than NE most are too low. Meaning not correlary.

Figure NE and Indy would be favored over any team in the NFC exccpet for maybe Philly, and NE would still be -3. Indy might be a PK. So Indy at 400 (now 500) is much better play at +1100 to win it all. Since they would have to be a -200 over whom ever they played to make the +500 "value"

A good rule of thumb when looking at future plays is that if conf odds are less than half of the SB odds then the SB odds are the better play. Because then you always have an option.

Even a borderline team like Philly. They are +400 to win the NFC and +800 to win the SB. I think they would be favored over any team but maybe NE, and possibly KC. Not because KC can play, but because they score. And a run in the play offs can d strange thngs. So at +800 they are a better play, because even against NE they won't be a +160 dog.