Football Analysis & Predictions - Pep004

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[h=3]About me[/h]

Hi, I’m Pep004!


I have been analysing and making predictions on football matches of La Liga for several years. In average my yield was around 11%. I decided to publish my analysis online in english, that everyone will have chance to read them. Everything is published for free, there is no need for sharing, for likes on Facebook, anything. For this season I decided to include French Ligue 1, and sometimes there will be picks also from Premier league, Champions league and some international matches.


I am former football player, played and trained under different coaches, also in the highest division, but stopped playing because of pretty serious back injury. I’ve been always passionate about tactics and my analysis are pretty different then analysis you are used to see. I am trying to predict who will have bigger possession, possibilities of creating chances, on which areas of pitch teams will be in advantage, and where in disadvantage. Calculations are more or less made on average performances of players/teams, and because the ball is round I am aware that everything can happen, but sports betting business is long distance run and in long term I know that this tactics is bringing me good results. Thanks to friend, I was lucky to get to know the world of arbing. I believe that many of you don't know this word, but it's about sports arbitrage, where you are covering both (all) sides of the bet. You can read more on forum Arbusers, where I learned a lot. Because of arbing, my knowledge about odds, bookmakers, odds movements, closing odds, is much much bigger. Knowing just the sports side of sports betting is not enough.



I am not selling anything, publishing all of analysis & predictions on my site and facebook page:
- http://pep004-football-analysis.blogspot.fr/
- https://www.facebook.com/fappep004

Right now, I have three analysis published:
- Marseille - Guingamp
- Lorient - Toulouse
- Nice - St. Etienne
 

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Hi @BIlls68. I can see that odds dropped. When I am posting on forum it needs to be approved by site admins, so I don't know when my post was accepted and if odds were the same like in my analysis. You can follow the page on facebook, to see analysis quicker if you want.

Otherwise.. it's a quite different story now. Of course it's important if you are betting AH 1 or AH 1,25. @1,925 means that bookies are giving around 51-52% that this will happen, while in my calculations are closer to 58%, which means that odds should be around 1,72. That's also why I am going with little bit higher stake.


Granada - Betis
 

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Comment of the round: I think that everyone who saw any of those matches knows that "god of fortune" was harsh with me this time. Just take a look of match between Valencia and Bilbao, or Lyon and Dijon, and you'll know what I am talking about... After post match analysis I found out that I didn't make any crucial mistake, will improve little mistakes which are mentioned above, but otherwise, I know that I just need to continue and results will come by themselves.
Post match analysis...
 

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