Follow up to my off season thread on Oklahoma football

[russ1945]

During the off season I did a thread on the University of Oklahoma. Me and Herb(street) both thought OU had a shot at making the Final Four for the playoffs. The loss to Texas was devastating but they are now ranked #7 in the playoff rankings. There are still a lot of things that can and will happen between now and the final poll so I thought I would take a little time to analyze those possibilities. I will look at each of the present top 7 and consider what could take place.

1. Clemson has it pretty much made as far as the regular season goes facing Wake Forest and S. Carolina but you never know. They will probably face N. Carolina in the conference championship and N. Carolina is peaking at just the right time. A UNC is now ranked #12 so that will be a great matchup.

2. Ohio St still has to face Michigan St and Michigan and their offense has not been very impressive. A loss to either one of those 2 teams could hurt but if they beat them they would face Iowa in their conference championship who is ranked #6.

3 Alabama looks like a shoe in. They will face powerhouse Charleston Southern and then their in state rival Auburn. They will likely wind up facing Florida in their conference championship who is now ranked #8. Pretty should they would prevail in that matchup.

4 Oklahoma St just got by Iowa St in what could have been a let down after beating TCU. They still have to face Baylor and OU and have the home field advantage in both of those matchups. Big 12 only has 10 teams and does not have a conference championship. If they get by those two games they should make it to the final four.

5 Notre Dame lost to #1 Clemson but still have to face B College and Stanford. Should Stanford prevail that gives them 2 losses and knocks them out.

6 Iowa still has to face Purdue and Nebraska. Nebraska stands at 4-6 but has lost 4 games by 3 points or less. If Iowa wins both those they have to face Ohio St in the conference championship game and loss there could knock them out. It is doubtful the committee would take 2 teams from the Big 10 even if Iowa only had that one loss.

7 Oklahoma’s win moved them into contention but they need wins over #11 TCU and #3 Oklahoma State to finish with just the one loss to Texas. Wins over both those teams could compensate for the Texas loss and they might squeeze into the #4 spot.

Now let’s consider strength of schedule using teamrankings.com as my source. My guess is these rankings are not based only on who these teams have already faced by the strength of the teams still remaining on their schedule.
1. Clemson is ranked #13 in SOS
2. Ohio St is ranked #57 in SOS
3. Alabama is ranked # 1 in SOS
4. Oklahoma St is ranked #33 in SOS
5. Notre Dame is ranked #9 in SOS
6. Iowa is ranked #60 in SOS
7. Oklahoma is ranked #3 in SOS

So it will take a miracle but if Oklahoma runs the table their SOS may make a difference. At any rate when Herb and I thought OU had a chance (I picked them before he did lol) many did not. Had they not lost to Texas they would be the talk of town. Who would have thought that two teams from Oklahoma would or could have surpassed the two teams from Texas (Baylor and TCU) in the final rankings based on preseason predictions. Who would have thought that no team in the Pac 12 could do better than two losses. As they say it ain’t over till it’s over and this will be very interesting to monitor right up until the end. May the best teams win.

 

[Albatross]

They really need a ND loss.

 

[razorbackpicks]

I don't think OU gets in above a 1 loss ND, 1 loss Clemson if that happens, or a no loss Okie state but I think that one is obvious.

 

[tmader7]

I don't think OU gets in above a 1 loss ND, 1 loss Clemson if that happens, or a no loss Okie state but I think that one is obvious.

Horseshit!!! OU is gonna run the table. That puts the pokes in a second tier bowl. ND got beat last time I checked, and as pointed out above, the SOS isn't as good as the Sooners. BAMA, OU, OSU (that is The Ohio State) and Clemson.

~T~

 

[russ1945]

Horseshit!!! OU is gonna run the table. That puts the pokes in a second tier bowl. ND got beat last time I checked, and as pointed out above, the SOS isn't as good as the Sooners. BAMA, OU, OSU (that is The Ohio State) and Clemson.

~T~

SOS is and should be an important factor in all of this. If OU beats Okie St and both have one loss you cannot ignore the fact that OU beat them straight up. If Okie St runs the table power to them. I always call it "something in the water" when two or more teams from the same state do well lol. The home team factor is out the window when these two teams play each other.

One noteable fact is that OU only had one off week all season. Yes they had an extra week to prepare for Texas and they were not ready. I blame Mike Stoops who has over stayed his welcome in Norman. Many of us thought he could do a better job than Venables but I guess Venables showed everyone in last year's bowl game and this years run. OU made a lot of changes but Mike Stoop's has got to go. Yes they did well against Baylor but he has to turn his talent loose instead of over controlling them. Time for him to hang it up but that is just me lol. BOL

 

[russ1945]

The college football rankings were shaken up this weekend big time. 9 of the top 25 ranked teams lost. 7 lost to other top 25 teams and 2 lost to currently unranked teams. N Dame only beat BC (3-8) by the score of 19-16 and RB Procise has to leave the game. Houston who won their two preceding games by a total of 4 points lost by 1 to Conn who is now 7-5. Florida squeaked by FAU who is now 2-9 for the season. Ohio St had 131 total yds in their loss to MSU. Baylor beat Okie St and used 2 backup QB’s in the process. TCU lost without QB Boykin but benefited from OU losing QB Mayfield in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half as backup QB Knight struggled. #25 Wisconsin scored 7 points in their loss to #20 NW. Iowa outscored Purdue but Purdue outgained Iowa 405 to 387.

So this week the committee will have to not only adjust the top 25 to reevaluate the top 4. Ohio St is history but Ala and Clemson will stick after racking up 552 yds against 3-8 WF. What happens in week 13 could have a big effect on the final outcome.

Next week OU faces Okie St who will have the home field advantage and plenty of incentive after the embarrassing loss to Baylor who lost the week before to OU. The playing status of QB Mayfield is probably the key in that match up. If Mayfield cannot play his backup former starter Knight would have to rise to the occasion. TCU’s and Baylor’s QB’s outplayed Knight and Okie St inserts backup QB Walsh in redzone situations and he does well. It is do or die for OU but if they win they have a shot at the final 4.
If OU loses to Okie St then Baylor could make a big move in the rankings but if N Dame prevails over Stanford then ND could make the final 4. Iowa and Clemson both have conference playoff games to play and those could be factors also. Mich St made a big move knocking off Ohio St. Iowa has to get past Nebraska and then will probably have to face Mich St in the Conf Champ game. The winner of that will make the final 4.

Let’s take a look at the strength of schedule for the final 4 contenders. Clemson #21, Alabama #1, Notre Dame #14, Iowa #65, Okie St #18, Oklahoma #2, and Mich St #24. That should be a factor.

Let’s take a look at next weeks match up for the final 4 contenders.:

Iowa travels to Nebraska who had last week off. Nebraska could salvage their season with a win. Keep in mind that Nebraska has lost 5 games by 5 points or less including losses to Wisconsin by 2, NW by 2, and Mich St by 1. This game will be well worth watching.

Baylor goes to TCU and both teams will be fight to the bitter end. This game has significance if Okie St beat OU.

Clemson plays S. Carolina. Their main goal will be no injuries.

Alabama plays Auburn. Another one of those rivalries where anything goes but very unlikely Auburn will come out on top.

Michigan St host Penn St and the Spartans defense should rule the day in that one.

Notre Dame travels to Stanford and the Cardinal have every incentive plus the home field advantage. Should be close all the way.

Oklahoma faces arch rival Okie St in Stillwater. OU is breathing a sigh of relief and hoping that QB Mayfield can play. OSU has the capability but it mostly rides on their passing attack.

Weather could be a factor in one or more of those match ups but the pressure is on both the coaches and the players to get it done. This season has had it’s ups and downs but it ain’t over till it’s over.

BOL

 

[russ1945]

I forgot to mention that Mich St put away Ohio St behind a back up QB. I just watched a post game interview also with Oklahoma OC Lincoln Riley and he said he has confidence in backup QB Trevor Knight. I would much rather see Baker Mayfield but in my off season thread I mentioned that OU was 3 deep at QB. We will see. I still can't believe TCU went for a 2 point conversion, probably the worst decision in Patterson's career. Back up QB's have been a big factor this season and it looks like Baylor and TCU are deep at that position and will be for the next couple of years.

 

[GoSooners]

I forgot to mention that Mich St put away Ohio St behind a back up QB. I just watched a post game interview also with Oklahoma OC Lincoln Riley and he said he has confidence in backup QB Trevor Knight. I would much rather see Baker Mayfield but in my off season thread I mentioned that OU was 3 deep at QB. We will see. I still can't believe TCU went for a 2 point conversion, probably the worst decision in Patterson's career. Back up QB's have been a big factor this season and it looks like Baylor and TCU are deep at that position and will be for the next couple of years.

Tremendous falloff at QB after Mayfield imo. But all OU needs to do is run it on OSU and they should win. That is if Riley can contain himself and stay on the ground...

 

[sendacash]

Where Y'all holding your breath down there in Soonerville when Patterson decided to go for 2?

 

[GoSooners]

Where Y'all holding your breath down there in Soonerville when Patterson decided to go for 2?

I was kind of glad he went for two. TCU had OU on the ropes. If they had gone into overtime they stood a better than even chance of winning the game. OU's defense was sucking air in the entire 4th quarter. There's no reason to think they would have stopped TCU in overtime either...

 

[russ1945]

No doubt, dumb decision. Should have gone for overtime. That is not based on what happened. I couldn't believe Patterson did it. Stupid decision and his players have to be second guessing that one.

 

[GoSooners]

No doubt, dumb decision. Should have gone for overtime. That is not based on what happened. I couldn't believe Patterson did it. Stupid decision and his players have to be second guessing that one.

The more I think about this OU/OSU game the less I like it. It's probably better to just stay away from it this week. I'm kind of surprised ESPN chose Gameday in Stoolwater instead of Palo Alto. But this game is for all the marbles I guess. In the back of my mine I can see OU losing and the Big 12 getting left out of the Playoff. That would make it very easy for the Playoff Committee.

 

[Greenbacks]

The college football rankings were shaken up this weekend big time. 9 of the top 25 ranked teams lost. 7 lost to other top 25 teams and 2 lost to currently unranked teams. N Dame only beat BC (3-8) by the score of 19-16 and RB Procise has to leave the game. Houston who won their two preceding games by a total of 4 points lost by 1 to Conn who is now 7-5. Florida squeaked by FAU who is now 2-9 for the season. Ohio St had 131 total yds in their loss to MSU. Baylor beat Okie St and used 2 backup QB’s in the process. TCU lost without QB Boykin but benefited from OU losing QB Mayfield in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half as backup QB Knight struggled. #25 Wisconsin scored 7 points in their loss to #20 NW. Iowa outscored Purdue but Purdue outgained Iowa 405 to 387.

So this week the committee will have to not only adjust the top 25 to reevaluate the top 4. Ohio St is history but Ala and Clemson will stick after racking up 552 yds against 3-8 WF. What happens in week 13 could have a big effect on the final outcome.

Next week OU faces Okie St who will have the home field advantage and plenty of incentive after the embarrassing loss to Baylor who lost the week before to OU. The playing status of QB Mayfield is probably the key in that match up. If Mayfield cannot play his backup former starter Knight would have to rise to the occasion. TCU’s and Baylor’s QB’s outplayed Knight and Okie St inserts backup QB Walsh in redzone situations and he does well. It is do or die for OU but if they win they have a shot at the final 4.
If OU loses to Okie St then Baylor could make a big move in the rankings but if N Dame prevails over Stanford then ND could make the final 4. Iowa and Clemson both have conference playoff games to play and those could be factors also. Mich St made a big move knocking off Ohio St. Iowa has to get past Nebraska and then will probably have to face Mich St in the Conf Champ game. The winner of that will make the final 4.

Let’s take a look at the strength of schedule for the final 4 contenders. Clemson #21, Alabama #1, Notre Dame #14, Iowa #65, Okie St #18, Oklahoma #2, and Mich St #24. That should be a factor.

Let’s take a look at next weeks match up for the final 4 contenders.:

Iowa travels to Nebraska who had last week off. Nebraska could salvage their season with a win. Keep in mind that Nebraska has lost 5 games by 5 points or less including losses to Wisconsin by 2, NW by 2, and Mich St by 1. This game will be well worth watching.

Baylor goes to TCU and both teams will be fight to the bitter end. This game has significance if Okie St beat OU.

Clemson plays S. Carolina. Their main goal will be no injuries.

Alabama plays Auburn. Another one of those rivalries where anything goes but very unlikely Auburn will come out on top.

Michigan St host Penn St and the Spartans defense should rule the day in that one.

Notre Dame travels to Stanford and the Cardinal have every incentive plus the home field advantage. Should be close all the way.

Oklahoma faces arch rival Okie St in Stillwater. OU is breathing a sigh of relief and hoping that QB Mayfield can play. OSU has the capability but it mostly rides on their passing attack.

Weather could be a factor in one or more of those match ups but the pressure is on both the coaches and the players to get it done. This season has had it’s ups and downs but it ain’t over till it’s over.

BOL

Michigan St host Penn St and the Spartans defense should rule the day in that one.

Don`t give that game to Michigan St just yet....No way....Penn St will be in this game right to the end....Believe me....Michigan St is coming off a huge win...Going to be a tough game for Sparty....Penn St can win it SU.

I`ll say it now....Stanford is better then the Irish....Stanford wins this game.

 

[GoSooners]

I`ll say it now....Stanford is better then the Irish....Stanford wins this game.

I lean that way too. I just hope Vegas throws up a good line when they come out.

 

[Greenbacks]

I lean that way too. I just hope Vegas throws up a good line when they come out.

Stanford -3....Line is out.

Stanford is the better team here.

Good luck!

 

[russ1945]

Michigan St has the better coach and Penn St's weakness is their offensive line. Could be close but I see Mich St prevailing at home.

 

[russ1945]

I have already covered the strength of schedule for the top final 4 contenders. I think the SOS needs to be linked to what I have always referred to as each teams average ranking. My average rankings take the scoring offense ranking + the scoring defense ranking divided by 2 for the average of the two. The lower the ranking the better. Let’s take a look at this.

Alabama – SOS Ranking #1 – Avg Ranking 17

Baylor – SOS Ranking #10 - Avg Ranking 38

Clemson – SOS Ranking #21 – Avg Ranking 14.5

Iowa – SOS Ranking #65 – Avg Ranking 27.5

Michigan St – SOS Ranking #24 – Avg Ranking 43

Notre Dame – SOS Ranking #14 – Avg Ranking 30

Oklahoma – SOS Ranking #2 – Avg Ranking 14

Oklahoma St – SOS Ranking #18 – Avg Ranking 33.5

You would think that a team in consideration for the playoffs would have a top 25 average ranking. Only 3 of the above teams fit that category. All of them have an SOS ranking of #25 or better except Iowa. Of the above the teams with the lowest best rankings in offensive scoring are Baylor at #1 and Oklahoma at #3. Of the above the teams with the best rankings in defensive scoring are Alabama #3 and Clemson #12.

Michigan St has the worst offensive scoring ranking at #54. Oklahoma St is ranked #60 in defensive scoring and Baylor #75.

Just thought I would throw this out there but I think combining SOS and the Average Rankings is a good gauge and means of comparing these teams.

BOL

 

[russ1945]

The more I think about this OU/OSU game the less I like it. It's probably better to just stay away from it this week. I'm kind of surprised ESPN chose Gameday in Stoolwater instead of Palo Alto. But this game is for all the marbles I guess. In the back of my mine I can see OU losing and the Big 12 getting left out of the Playoff. That would make it very easy for the Playoff Committee.

Mayfield is the key in my book. If he is ready to play I think OU wins. Had he not missed the 2nd half of the TCU game they would have won comfortably.

 

[GoSooners]

Mayfield is the key in my book. If he is ready to play I think OU wins. Had he not missed the 2nd half of the TCU game they would have won comfortably.

Rumor is Mayfield is supposed to be evaluated tomorrow. Maybe they'll consult with world renowned neurologist Dr. Carson to get the definitive prognosis. That is if he isn't too busy guarding the grain pyramids...Ha!

 

[cloverleaf]

Mayfield is the key in my book. If he is ready to play I think OU wins. Had he not missed the 2nd half of the TCU game they would have won comfortably.

Agree 100 percent!

Mayfield has provided some spark, leadership at the position lacking the past couple of years. The
dude is fun to watch.