Florida St. vs. Georgia Tech

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Thoughts on this one?

I made FSU my POTW last week and it paid off. I'm thinking about doing the same thing this week, as I think my 'Noles have finally turned the corner and their talent is beginning to overpower their ACC competition.

It seems to me like the public is still far from sold on this FSU team, and I can't say I blame them. Ponder has a *long* way to go passing the ball.

But the defense is Top 10 in the country, and Antone Smith has been playing like he was expected to do when he came out of high school. I can't believe I'm saying it, but I think FSU is finally developing a running game, something I haven't seen since Greg Jones. And after the Wake Forest disaster, Jimbo is clearly putting a big emphasis on taking care of the ball.

It scares me to bet big on a first-year quarterback being protected by three freshman offensive linemen on the road, but the homer in me gives me the confidence to say that they're all playing beyond their years and will continue to do so as this season nears its end. Trickett and Jimbo are two of the best in the business in my opinion, and I have faith in them as coaches.

Georgia Tech has been great this season, no doubt about that (except for last week...wtf). But FSU has the talent in the secondary to play 1 vs. 1 against the WR's and put 9 in the box to stop the run. Considering FSU is usually solid against the run, I like their chances of stopping GT's option attack. GT actually reminds me of Wake Forest and all their misdirection, and while WF beat FSU earlier in the season, it wasn't because of amazing offense. 12 points off 7 turnovers; I'll take that from a defense anyday.

As an aside, I wouldn't be shocked to see FSU knock Nesbitt out of the game like they did Taylor and Glennon last week. This defense just plain hits hard, and with Nesbitt holding the ball as much as he does, it could happen (and he's already been hurt this year).

Georgia Tech historically doesn't play that much better at home, either. Aside from Duke, I'd say it's one of the least intimidating places to play in the ACC.

I'll probably wait and hear how Antone Smith is doing this week before I really load up, but if it sounds like he'll be ok, it looks like my 'Noles will probably end up being my biggest play of the week again this week. This team should win every game left on their ACC schedule, and to get them at basically a pick 'em is something I can't refuse.

-Just my 2 cents. Curious to hear everyone else's thoughts.
 

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I hope your right. Florida State is on my weekly writeup and picks thread.
 
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as you said wait for news on Smith before you do anything. Also would like to point out Gtech plays the run much stronger than the pass and play better on that side of the ball in their home field.

GL
 

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Florida State is nothing special. Georgia Tech + or nothing here.
 
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Already put a good chunk of change on 'em in case the line continues to move against me.

Even if Smith were to not play, FSU has enough skill players to plug in at RB and stick to their gameplan. Sims can pound the ball, and if need be Preston Parker can go back there like he did last year.

Don't be shocked to see a lot of bubble screens to Easterling and Reed this week too if Smith ends up not playing...those are as good as a run.
 

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Nesbitt couldn't hold a snap agaisnt Virginia and fumbled it many times. Only way i took GT is if Jaybo Shaw got instituted as the starting qb, he's way better than nesbitt imo.
 

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This one scares me. Gtech is very good in the trenches and I can see them manhandling our offensive line. We have always had problems with mobile QB's and option teams because we are so undisciplined with our assignments on D. Penalties continue to be a big problem (we have been flagged 63 times for 578 yards so far this season), and against good competition that will bite us in the ass (that is over 9 yards per penalty, which tells you that the majority are the 10+ yard variety.) Gtech coming off a loss will be ready to play, you can count on it. We need Antone badly in order to win this game. The under might be a good play in this one as neither offensive has been dominating and both have pretty stout defenses.

GL on you play, I may jump on it if Antone is healthy but I will not go very heavy.
 

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Georgia Tech is one of those teams that on any given weak can beat nearly any team...and lose to any team.

Every year they beat atleast one or two teams they shouldnt. They are a talented team no doubt, but its anyones guess which Georgia Tech will show up on Saturday. The most points they have given up in a game so far is only 24 (9th scoring d, 19th rushing d and 12th total d), only give up 160 yards throwing per game, and they do average 236 yards on the ground per game.

Georgia Tech doesnt have a passing game which is the huge glaring weakness in the team
 
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Sarcean said it right - they're still new to this option thing which leads to turnovers. They squeaked past Clemson who they should have hammered and lost to UVA who they should have beaten because of them.

If they hold onto the ball, they will win.
 
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If they hold onto the ball, they will win.

That's probably true for 99% of PK games.

I like FSU's chances of getting turnovers better than GT's though, especially with Nesbitt's inaccuracy. Ponder is no pocket passer and struggles tremendously with check-downs, but I really do think that Jimbo has put a major emphasis on taking care of the ball. Look at Weatherford last year; he was an INT machine the year before, but did a great job last year not turning it over. I think the learning curve has been accelerated with Ponder; Jimbo put him through the fire and let him sling it around, saw that he wasn't/isn't ready, and is calling plays that decreases the chances of turnovers.

Jimbo is calling games not to lose, and so far it's worked. So long as the defense doesn't suffer too many more injuries, it should continue working in the ACC.

Bottom line is I just don't see GT scoring enough points here to match the 17-24 I see FSU scoring. Maybe one good TD drive, maybe one long option pass play that burns FSU badly, but beyond that, I think FSU's defense is just too stout to get run on all day by GT. Perhaps wishful thinking, but as a relative expert on this FSU team, I'm fairly comfortable in that. Comfortable enough to put my money on it, anyway.

I guess we'll find out on Saturday. Go 'Noles.
 

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Its good to see the legend Bobby Bowden back near the top where he belongs. I hope he coaches until he is 100.
 

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LRNF,

I'll give your team props for being where they are. Imagine if they had not shit the bed vs Wake!

With that said, I am still not "sold" on FSU either. First the ACC is really bad this year. Really bad. Second, I read today that if you take out FSU's first two games vs VERY BAD 1AA teams their defense is actually around 39th. Still respectable. But not "top 10".

I'd be careful w/ this one. Ga Tech just played a poor game against a very, very improved UVA team. I just wouldn't make it my "POTW".

GL

(Here I go again!)....


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i know youre gettin excited noles fans about what has traspired last few weeks. and i love bobby bowden, met him in person. great guy...but if someone can please post the combined records of flastate opponents wins this year. gateach is better than any team flastate has played last few weeks. plus the game is downtown atl...i think someone said it earlier above. gatech or no play
 

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Florida State is the best team Georgia Tech has played all year. Who else is better? VA Tech?? Florida State just beat them while Tech lost to them, Boston College??? They just got smoked by North Carolina---The Georgia Tech offense has not seen this kind of athletic ability all year. I know many Tech alumni and this team fumbles alot because they are still learning the offense. They will be good when they run the advanced version of it, but they still run a simplified form.
 

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Go for it,

You may be right. However, your logic doesn't make sense because didn't FSU get stomped by Wake? And didn't wake lose to some of these same teams you mention? If you wager on: Team X beat Team Y....and Team Z beat Team X....that means Team Z will definitely beat Team Y??? Not always the case. Good luck with that logic. Maybe Ole Miss will beat every team that Florida beat?? Or Oregon State will beat all the teams that Southern Cal beat??


(Here I go again!).....


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Coach, you are right that there are different matchups for different teams. My argument was that Georgia Tech has not played any great teams either. Florida State has caught alot of heat for opening up against I-AA teams, but Georgia Tech has played two I-AA's also. For some reason Tech has had bad luck against Florida State. I was there live for the Charlie Ward drive when it looked like Tech had it won. Other times Tech found a way to lose it. I'll have to look it up the last time Tech beat Florida State, but it has been a long time. In the close games, Tech choked. Maybe they are due, but I'm not betting on it. I love the fact that the Florida State defense only allowed 12 points after 7 turnovers by the offense in the Wake game even though they lost. Not many defenses can do that. The Miami Hurricanes game was deceiving also. The Canes put up 39 points, but only around 250 total yards. I think Ponder is getting better each game also and I'm a big fan of Jimbo Fisher as offensive coordinator.
 

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Tech is now favored by 1.5....The line has moved 3 points against me since I got it at FSU -1.5, yet the wagerline money is on Florida State, what the heck is going on, I wonder if I Should middle, this is strange
 

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