I am seriously going to pass on the middle shot and ride the whole thing on Florida St -20. That would make this double the highest bet I ever made. I just don't get the line. I think at a time like this I need to jjgold it and let the chips fall where they may.
Here is some info I am riding, to overcome my bias towards a favorite team.
Wake Forest has played 5 games. 4 at home, 2 of which they lost. The one road game was at Nebraska, a tough road environment. Nebraska, though proven to be offensiveless but with a strong defense, won 31-3. ( 28 points, FSU favored by only 20, well 20.5 now.)
While memories linger of the FSU-Miami game, junk them. FSU's 2 QB's are now playing far better than anything seen since the pre-Rix days. They needed some time and game experience, they have it.
FSU officially, this can be looked up thru Bobby Bowden quotes, junked the conservative offense of the Rix years last week. Against Syracuse, a team with a strong defense, Florida St came out in the Charlie Ward style shotgun offense. That's 1 RB, no TE and 4 receivers. FSU put up 392 yards passing and 38 points on a tough defense.
When Xavier Lee comes in at QB in the second half, its not to run out the clock, its to compete for the starting QB job. The same spread run & gun offense is employed. This helps the FSU scoring and for our purposes, a cover.
Wake is a running team. Florida St is VERY strong versus the run. You cannot run on a good defense. FSU generates a strong pass rush too. Wake will need a punt return or turnovers or some general luck to put up more than 7-10 points here.
The least of my points, but consider it. The last two FSU visits to Wake have been close games. That was during the dark Rix years. Even during that time, in Wakes two visits to Florida St, Florida St won 48-24 both times. Were looking to cover 20 here. Or 20.5 now for you late bloomers. FSU's offense is better than it was anytime during the Rix years. The defense is very strong.
Predicted score:
Florida St 44
Wake 7
I have also bet futures lines on FSU -6.5 at Virginia heavily today and put a bet on FSU to win the national championship at 20-1. I dont expect to cash the 20-1 ticket but I can honestly say watching this team it is moving towards a team that can win it all. It certainly is not there now, but I see big strides and wonder if they can beat Florida on the road at the end of the season and beat Virginia Tech in Jacksonville to win the inaugural ACC title game? The defense is close to championship caliber and the offense, if it continues to improve, has all the talent neccesary.
disclaimer- I am a Florida St fan. Bet at your own risk. Maybe I see things thru rosy glasses? I believe in the pick, but I may be wrong. There are no locks.
:toast: