Florida/FSU LETS SEE WHAT EVRYONE THINKS???

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I would like to know what everyone thinks about this game. I honestly think that fsu is over rated by playing in a week conf!! I honestly see this as another blow out just like last yr!

Can anyone make a case as to not load up on the GATORS!!:toast::103631605
 

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Couple Things:

-Bowden has never lost by more than 10 to a Gator team at home
-Dogs of 10.5-21 at home off a road win are 29-6 ATS since '03. The average margin of victory for the favorite was just under 8 points.
-That trend improves to 27-3 ATS when looking at Saturday games only
-Home team is 15-5 ATS in this series
-Gators 2 ATS losses came when they didn't top 145 yards rushing
-Only 3 of 11 FSU opponents have topped that number, FSU averages 2.4 defensive ypr at home
-Over 80% of the public on the Gators
-UF averages more than a TD less on the road
 

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Florida vs. Florida State

By Scouts, Inc




<!-- end story header --><!-- begin left column --> <!-- begin page tools --> Friday, November 28, 2008

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<!---------------------INLINE TABLE (BEGIN)--------------------> <table id="inlinetable" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><th colspan="10" style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Florida at Florida State Matchups</th> </tr><tr style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);" valign="top"> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">QB</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">RB</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">WR</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">OL</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">DL</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">LB</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">DB</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">ST</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">Coach</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">Overall</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);" valign="top"> <td align="center" width="62">
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Florida offense vs. Florida State defense
The Seminoles have defended the run well thanks in large part to an active defensive line and an aggressive linebacker corps. Junior 252-pound DE Everette Brown is the leading tackler along the front four and explodes off the ball, and he's recorded 22.5 tackles for loss. DE Neefy Moffett (255 pounds), NT Budd Thacker (280 pounds) and NG Kendrick Stewart (265 pounds) are cut from the same cloth as Brown. All three make up for their lack of size and strength with quickness and athletic ability. At the second level, MLB Derek Nicholson, WLB Toddrick Verdell and SLB Dekoda Watson find the ball and run downhill, frequently meeting ball carriers at or near the line of scrimmage. However, Florida State is going to have a tough time slowing Florida's potent, multifaceted ground game. The Gators' spread scheme will stretch the Seminoles' defensive front from sideline to sideline and run plenty of misdirection. Each Seminoles linebacker must read his keys correctly and do his specific job on every play or Florida State could get gashed for some long runs. Undersized Florida RBs Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey are lightning-quick and have world-class speed. While fellow RB Emmanuel Moody isn't quite as dangerous, he's still fast enough to tear off a long run when he gets a seam, and don't forget about RB/WR/RS Percy Harvin and QB Tim Tebow. Harvin is a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball, and Florida will get the ball in his hands in a number of ways, including jet sweeps, end-arounds and bubble screens. Tebow reads defensive fronts well and is an effective read-option quarterback, and the 240-pounder is tough to bring down in the open field. Given Florida's big-play ability and misdirection attack, the Seminoles' linebackers will have to temper the aggressiveness that has made them successful thus far with discipline and patience. In his second year as the full-time starter, Tebow has thrown just two interceptions compared to 22 touchdowns and looks supremely confident running the offense. As is usually the case, he faces a secondary this week that will have a tough time slowing the Gators' talented receiving corps. Florida State CBs Tony Carter and Patrick Robinson will have difficulty matching up with Harvin, Louis Murphy and Riley Cooper, and it doesn't help that Seminoles FS Darius McClure is out for the year with a knee injury. Of course, Florida's ability to give Tebow time to locate the open man and space to step into his throws can't be overlooked, either. The Gators have allowed just 14 sacks this year, but Tebow should have a tougher time getting comfortable in the pocket this week. Brown is a difference-maker coming off the edge, and he has notched three sacks in a game three different times this season. He is coming off an impressive performance against Maryland last week with 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble. Florida State defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews is also renowned for his aggressive play-calling, so expect him to dial up plenty of blitzes and defensive line stunts while changing coverages in an effort to keep Tebow off-balance. <!---------------------IN LINE TABLE (BEGIN)--------------------> <table id="inlinetable" align="right" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="225"> <tbody><tr><th colspan="1" style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><center>No. 4. Florida vs.
No. 20 Florida State</center></th> </tr><tr style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);" valign="top"> <td width="225">
</td></tr><tr style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);" valign="top"> <td width="100%"> <table align="center"> <tbody><tr><td align="left"> </td> <td align="center">vs. </td> <td align="right"> </td></tr></tbody></table>
When: Sat., Nov. 29, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN360.ocm)
Where: Tallahassee, Fla.
Preview: Plenty at stake for Gators </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!---------------------IN LINE TABLE (END)--------------------> Florida State Offense vs. Florida Defense
Florida State's ground attack is powered by the duo of RB Antone Smith and QB Christian Ponder. The undersized Smith makes up for his lack of size with balance, vision and quickness, while Ponder is a shifty open-field runner who hits top speed quickly. However, they will have a tough finding room to work against a swarming Florida run defense that's holding opponents to an average of 3.3 yards per carry. The Gators' defensive front is led by MLB Brandon Spikes, whose initial quickness makes him disruptive between the tackles and who also possesses sideline-to-sideline range. Spikes should continue to benefit from the ability of DTs Terron Sanders and Lawrence Marsh to occupy blockers and keep them off his body. Sanders and Marsh should clog up the middle working against a young Seminoles interior offensive line. Don't look for Florida State to have much success getting outside, either. Freshman OTs Andrew Datko and Zebrie Sanders will struggle to seal quick DEs Jermaine Cunningham, Justin Trattou and Carlos Dunlap. In addition, Florida CB Joe Haden has done a nice job of stepping up in run support. Making matters worse for Florida State, Smith is dealing with bruised ribs, and the injury has appeared to hinder him at times. Ponder has thrown an interception in each of Florida State's three losses, and he threw three each against Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. Meanwhile, the Gators' pass defense has been stingy, and only two FBS teams have more interceptions than Florida's 20. Haden and fellow CB Janoris Jenkins are quick-twitch athletes who break on routes and play the ball fairly well. In the middle, FS Major Wright and SS Ahmad Black have combined for eight interceptions. It's crucial that Ponder manage the game well, but that's easier said than done against Florida. As talented as WRs Preston Parker, Greg Carr, Taiwan Easterling and Bert Reed are, they are going to have to fight for everything they get against this secondary. Ponder will have to hold the ball longer than usual, and that spells trouble for Florida State. Cunningham and Dunlap are relentless pass rushers with above-average speed and athletic ability. Marsh can collapse the pocket from the inside, and the ability of the front four to get to Ponder will give Florida defensive coordinator Charlie Strong the option of dropping seven into coverage or rushing five-plus in an effort to pressure Ponder into making a mistake.

Special Teams
<!---------------------IN LINE TABLE (BEGIN)--------------------> <table id="inlinetable" align="right" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="225"> <tbody><tr><th colspan="1" style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><center>Key individual matchup</center></th> </tr><tr style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);" valign="top"> <td width="225">
</td></tr><tr style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);" valign="top"> <td width="100%"> <center>Florida WR Louis Murphy vs. Florida State CB Tony Carter</center>
This matchup pits two talented seniors against each other. Murphy isn't a crisp route-runner because he rounds off too many of his cuts, but his superior top-end speed gives him the edge because he is capable of running past Carter and tracks the deep ball well. Look for Carter to give him a healthy cushion most of the time. With Carter backed off the line, Murphy should be able to get open underneath despite his deficiencies as a route-runner, and he's a powerful open-field runner who will fight for yards after the catch. In addition, Murphy (6-foot-3, 205 pounds) has a substantial size advantage over Carter (5-9, 177) and he shows good body control in the air. He can shield Carter from the ball and should come down with any jump balls, making this a matchup the Gators could try to exploit in the red zone. </td></tr></tbody></table> <!---------------------IN LINE TABLE (END)-------------------->Graham Gano handles all three phases of the kicking game for Florida State. He has connected on 21 of 23 field goal attempts and has a long of 53 yards. On kickoffs, Gano is averaging 62.5 yards per kick, and he's recorded six touchbacks in 26 attempts. As a punter, he is averaging 41.4 yards per punt and has placed three of his 14 punts inside the 20-yard line. Back deep to handle the kickoff returns for the Seminoles will be Parker and Michael Ray Garvin, who is averaging an impressive 32.2 yards per kickoff return and ran back a kickoff 94 yards for a touchdown earlier this year. Parker is a slippery runner with excellent speed. That doesn't bode well for a Florida team that has been adequate at best when covering kickoffs. Tony Carter will handle the punt returns. He is averaging 14.1 yards per return, and he returned a punt 68 yards for a touchdown earlier this year. However, don't expect much from him this week -- only three FBS teams are giving up fewer yards per punt return than the Gators (3.9 ypr). Florida K Jonathan Phillips has been perfect thus far, hitting all nine of his field goal attempts with a long of 40 yards. Handling the kickoff duties for the Gators will be Caleb Sturgis, who is averaging an impressive 65.1 yards per kick while notching 11 touchbacks in 71 kicks. P Chas Henry is averaging 42.5 yards per punt and has placed 17 of his 34 punts inside the 20. Brandon James and Kehstan Moore will handle the kickoff returns for Florida. James is averaging 24.6 yards per kickoff return and is always a threat to break the long return. In fact, he's returned two punts for touchdowns this year. If a Florida State team that has done an adequate job of covering kickoffs and punts doesn't tackle well and stay in pursuit lanes, James could bust a long return.

Scouts' Edge
Florida State is coming off an impressive win over Maryland and should play with a great deal of emotion against its in-state rival, but emotion won't be enough to pull off the upset. Florida's offense has been playing at an elite level for over a month now, and the Gators simply have too many weapons for the Seminoles to keep pace. While Florida State's pass rush should get to Tebow at times, Florida's commitment to the ground game will help keep the Seminoles' defensive line on its heels and set up the play-action package. On the other side of the ball, a smothering Gators run defense will force Ponder to shoulder the bulk of the offensive load, and he hasn't shown he can carry the offense against a pass defense of this caliber. It all adds up to another lopsided victory for Florida.

Prediction: Gators 38, Seminoles 16
 

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Do you really just post something from ESPN?

I hope people don't base their decisions off ESPN articles.
 

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florida 51
florida st 28
if they can put that many on spurrier which had the #1 def in sec at that time they can easily put that up on bowden
 

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florida 51
florida st 28
if they can put that many on spurrier which had the #1 def in sec at that time they can easily put that up on bowden


If I remember correctly, South Carolina imploded in the first quarter and was behind 28-0 before they could blink (in the swamp). Two pics and a botched lateral on a kickoff return setting up 3 very short fields. I am not saying that FSU is the play, but I wouldn't put too much stock in the result of the USC game. This game will be closer than the so called "experts" are predicting. When was the last time that Bowden was a 2TD+ dog at home?
 
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Do you really just post something from ESPN?

I hope people don't base their decisions off ESPN articles.

I hope people don't base their decisions on stuff like "ATS"....ultimate garbage statistics that can be bent either way with bullshit numbers...Ace-Ace would love you....
 

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I hope people don't base their decisions on stuff like "ATS"....ultimate garbage statistics that can be bent either way with bullshit numbers...Ace-Ace would love you....

You're right. You can probably "bend" the 15-5 ATS record for home teams in the series. You can probably "bend" the fact that Bowden hasn't lost to a Gator team by more than 10. You can probably "bend" the fact that FSU only gives up 2.4 ypr at home.

So, yeah, you win. ESPN articles > ATS and statistics.

Genius.
 

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If I remember correctly, South Carolina imploded in the first quarter and was behind 28-0 before they could blink (in the swamp). Two pics and a botched lateral on a kickoff return setting up 3 very short fields. I am not saying that FSU is the play, but I wouldn't put too much stock in the result of the USC game. This game will be closer than the so called "experts" are predicting. When was the last time that Bowden was a 2TD+ dog at home?



I hear people talking about bowden this and bowden that but the oldman doesn't play! I'm not trying to be a smart ass here but these two teams are not in the same class to me! I didn't think sc was in their class and they showed it! I read all those trends but you know that most of those trends were when fsu was a national champion contender every year! They are still getting respect for that reputation of years ago( ex:When was the last time that Bowden was a 2TD+ dog at home?)

I still believe that this gets ugly after halftime!!!
 

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I think the main stat of this game is the fact that the smallest margin of victory is 22 (if i'm not mistaken) against all opponents besides Ole Miss... If anyone thinks that FSU is better than every other team in the SEC, raise your hand... lol.. Florida should cover the spread, I put a lot of money on it.. considering they have covered the spread in 10 out of 11 games and will try to put away the game early and have their offense running like a well-oiled machine for their big matchup against Alabama.
 

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SEC overrated, ACC underrated

best ACC team FSU should hang within 17 of the best SEC team. Florida has looked really pretty but this line is ridiculous. I would take FSU over any team UF has played this year and I expect them to hang with the Gators tomorrow. Should actually be a very competitive game.
 

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I think the main stat of this game is the fact that the smallest margin of victory is 22 (if i'm not mistaken) against all opponents besides Ole Miss... If anyone thinks that FSU is better than every other team in the SEC, raise your hand...

I assume you mean better than every SEC team that Florida has faced?
%^_

Tennessee? Definitely
Ole Miss? Probably
Arkansas? Definitely
LSU? Definitely
Kentucky? Definitely
Vanderbilt? Definitely
South Carolina? Definitely
Georgia? Arguably

The SEC is garbage this year. Outside of Bama and UF, it's pretty bad. The ACC doesn't have the cakewalks that the SEC has (Vandy, Miss. St., Kentucky, Tennessee) this year.
 

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I would like to know what everyone thinks about this game. I honestly think that fsu is over rated by playing in a week conf!!

Nobody thinks FSU is especially good, so the overrated comment is off-base. And the ACC has turned out to be as good as the SEC this year, though UF does have about a 4-point-per-game edge in strength of schedule.
 

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uhhh ACC=league of mediocrity. The best two teams in the ACC are Boston College and Georgia Tech. The ONLY team that I'd be afraid of from the ACC is GT because if you miss one assignment then it could easily be a touchdown. The SEC is down this year but still much better than the ACC... Florida is must better than Florida State... it'll show on the field tomorrow as I expect Florida to have at least a 28 pt lead at half time.
 

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I assume you mean better than every SEC team that Florida has faced?
%^_

Tennessee? Definitely
Ole Miss? Probably
Arkansas? Definitely
LSU? Definitely
Kentucky? Definitely
Vanderbilt? Definitely
South Carolina? Definitely
Georgia? Arguably

The SEC is garbage this year. Outside of Bama and UF, it's pretty bad. The ACC doesn't have the cakewalks that the SEC has (Vandy, Miss. St., Kentucky, Tennessee) this year.

Are you SERIOUS? dude Florida, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Ole Miss and Kentucky would probably beat Florida State from the SEC (keep in mind that yall are in a tiebreaker at the top of your conference too)! Didn't Va Tech lose to ECU.. LoL are you kidding me? Maryland lost to MTSU.. are you kidding me? those are teams at the top of your division. Get real dude if you think the ACC is better than the SEC. Clemson is going to get beat handily by South Carolina tomorrow and Georgia is going to be in a dog fight with GT.. which I think they'll win... GT is the best team in the ACC hands down.
 

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instead of this piss battle about which conference is better, it'll be clearer after next week... CU plays USC, GT plays UGA.. UF plays FSU.. Vandy plays Wake...etc-- then you have the peach bowl where FSU may very well be playing.
 

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For what it's worth, ACC is the #1 conference in the Sagarin. Granted they might not be the best conference, but there certainly is an argument that they're as good if not better than the SEC this year.

Team ranked below 55:

ACC: 0
SEC: 4

vs. the Sagarin Top 30:

ACC: 26-32
SEC: 8-26

And if you're familiar with the ACC, you'd realize that FSU is the best team in the conference. They lost against Wake (26 suspended players), BC (5 suspended WRs), and GT (2 suspended WRs, had the game won). What did FSU do when they had everyone in the lineup? Blast a ranked Maryland last week in Maryland.
 

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if this if that.. doesn't matter. I don't care about the computer rankings.. I'm going by what I see on the field and it's inconsistency from the ACC... One computer had Florida out of hte top 25 in the 1st BCS rankings... who believed that??? no one.
 

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