Florida vs. Florida State
By Scouts, Inc
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<!---------------------INLINE TABLE (BEGIN)--------------------> <table id="inlinetable" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="100%"> <tbody><tr><th colspan="10" style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Florida at Florida State Matchups</th> </tr><tr style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);" valign="top"> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">QB</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">RB</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">WR</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">OL</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">DL</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">LB</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">DB</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">ST</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">Coach</td> <td style="background-color: rgb(153, 153, 153);" align="center" width="62">Overall</td> </tr> <tr style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);" valign="top"> <td align="center" width="62">
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Florida offense vs. Florida State defense
The Seminoles have defended the run well thanks in large part to an active defensive line and an aggressive linebacker corps. Junior 252-pound DE
Everette Brown is the leading tackler along the front four and explodes off the ball, and he's recorded 22.5 tackles for loss. DE
Neefy Moffett (255 pounds), NT
Budd Thacker (280 pounds) and NG
Kendrick Stewart (265 pounds) are cut from the same cloth as Brown. All three make up for their lack of size and strength with quickness and athletic ability. At the second level, MLB
Derek Nicholson, WLB
Toddrick Verdell and SLB
Dekoda Watson find the ball and run downhill, frequently meeting ball carriers at or near the line of scrimmage. However, Florida State is going to have a tough time slowing Florida's potent, multifaceted ground game. The Gators' spread scheme will stretch the Seminoles' defensive front from sideline to sideline and run plenty of misdirection. Each Seminoles linebacker must read his keys correctly and do his specific job on every play or Florida State could get gashed for some long runs. Undersized Florida RBs
Jeff Demps and
Chris Rainey are lightning-quick and have world-class speed. While fellow RB
Emmanuel Moody isn't quite as dangerous, he's still fast enough to tear off a long run when he gets a seam, and don't forget about RB/WR/RS
Percy Harvin and QB
Tim Tebow. Harvin is a threat to go the distance every time he touches the ball, and Florida will get the ball in his hands in a number of ways, including jet sweeps, end-arounds and bubble screens. Tebow reads defensive fronts well and is an effective read-option quarterback, and the 240-pounder is tough to bring down in the open field. Given Florida's big-play ability and misdirection attack, the Seminoles' linebackers will have to temper the aggressiveness that has made them successful thus far with discipline and patience. In his second year as the full-time starter, Tebow has thrown just two interceptions compared to 22 touchdowns and looks supremely confident running the offense. As is usually the case, he faces a secondary this week that will have a tough time slowing the Gators' talented receiving corps. Florida State CBs
Tony Carter and
Patrick Robinson will have difficulty matching up with Harvin,
Louis Murphy and
Riley Cooper, and it doesn't help that Seminoles FS
Darius McClure is out for the year with a knee injury. Of course, Florida's ability to give Tebow time to locate the open man and space to step into his throws can't be overlooked, either. The Gators have allowed just 14 sacks this year, but Tebow should have a tougher time getting comfortable in the pocket this week. Brown is a difference-maker coming off the edge, and he has notched three sacks in a game three different times this season. He is coming off an impressive performance against Maryland last week with 3.5 sacks and a forced fumble. Florida State defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews is also renowned for his aggressive play-calling, so expect him to dial up plenty of blitzes and defensive line stunts while changing coverages in an effort to keep Tebow off-balance. <!---------------------IN LINE TABLE (BEGIN)--------------------> <table id="inlinetable" align="right" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="225"> <tbody><tr><th colspan="1" style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><center>No. 4. Florida vs.
No. 20 Florida State</center></th> </tr><tr style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);" valign="top"> <td width="225">
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When: Sat., Nov. 29, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN360.ocm)
Where: Tallahassee, Fla.
Preview:
Plenty at stake for Gators </td> </tr> </tbody></table> <!---------------------IN LINE TABLE (END)-------------------->
Florida State Offense vs. Florida Defense
Florida State's ground attack is powered by the duo of RB
Antone Smith and QB
Christian Ponder. The undersized Smith makes up for his lack of size with balance, vision and quickness, while Ponder is a shifty open-field runner who hits top speed quickly. However, they will have a tough finding room to work against a swarming Florida run defense that's holding opponents to an average of 3.3 yards per carry. The Gators' defensive front is led by MLB
Brandon Spikes, whose initial quickness makes him disruptive between the tackles and who also possesses sideline-to-sideline range. Spikes should continue to benefit from the ability of DTs
Terron Sanders and
Lawrence Marsh to occupy blockers and keep them off his body. Sanders and Marsh should clog up the middle working against a young Seminoles interior offensive line. Don't look for Florida State to have much success getting outside, either. Freshman OTs
Andrew Datko and
Zebrie Sanders will struggle to seal quick DEs
Jermaine Cunningham,
Justin Trattou and
Carlos Dunlap. In addition, Florida CB
Joe Haden has done a nice job of stepping up in run support. Making matters worse for Florida State, Smith is dealing with bruised ribs, and the injury has appeared to hinder him at times. Ponder has thrown an interception in each of Florida State's three losses, and he threw three each against Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. Meanwhile, the Gators' pass defense has been stingy, and only two FBS teams have more interceptions than Florida's 20. Haden and fellow CB
Janoris Jenkins are quick-twitch athletes who break on routes and play the ball fairly well. In the middle, FS
Major Wright and SS
Ahmad Black have combined for eight interceptions. It's crucial that Ponder manage the game well, but that's easier said than done against Florida. As talented as WRs
Preston Parker,
Greg Carr,
Taiwan Easterling and
Bert Reed are, they are going to have to fight for everything they get against this secondary. Ponder will have to hold the ball longer than usual, and that spells trouble for Florida State. Cunningham and Dunlap are relentless pass rushers with above-average speed and athletic ability. Marsh can collapse the pocket from the inside, and the ability of the front four to get to Ponder will give Florida defensive coordinator Charlie Strong the option of dropping seven into coverage or rushing five-plus in an effort to pressure Ponder into making a mistake.
Special Teams
<!---------------------IN LINE TABLE (BEGIN)--------------------> <table id="inlinetable" align="right" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="225"> <tbody><tr><th colspan="1" style="background-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><center>Key individual matchup</center></th> </tr><tr style="background-color: rgb(236, 236, 236);" valign="top"> <td width="225">
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<center>Florida WR Louis Murphy vs. Florida State CB Tony Carter</center>
This matchup pits two talented seniors against each other. Murphy isn't a crisp route-runner because he rounds off too many of his cuts, but his superior top-end speed gives him the edge because he is capable of running past Carter and tracks the deep ball well. Look for Carter to give him a healthy cushion most of the time. With Carter backed off the line, Murphy should be able to get open underneath despite his deficiencies as a route-runner, and he's a powerful open-field runner who will fight for yards after the catch. In addition, Murphy (6-foot-3, 205 pounds) has a substantial size advantage over Carter (5-9, 177) and he shows good body control in the air. He can shield Carter from the ball and should come down with any jump balls, making this a matchup the Gators could try to exploit in the red zone. </td></tr></tbody></table> <!---------------------IN LINE TABLE (END)-------------------->
Graham Gano handles all three phases of the kicking game for Florida State. He has connected on 21 of 23 field goal attempts and has a long of 53 yards. On kickoffs, Gano is averaging 62.5 yards per kick, and he's recorded six touchbacks in 26 attempts. As a punter, he is averaging 41.4 yards per punt and has placed three of his 14 punts inside the 20-yard line. Back deep to handle the kickoff returns for the Seminoles will be Parker and
Michael Ray Garvin, who is averaging an impressive 32.2 yards per kickoff return and ran back a kickoff 94 yards for a touchdown earlier this year. Parker is a slippery runner with excellent speed. That doesn't bode well for a Florida team that has been adequate at best when covering kickoffs. Tony Carter will handle the punt returns. He is averaging 14.1 yards per return, and he returned a punt 68 yards for a touchdown earlier this year. However, don't expect much from him this week -- only three FBS teams are giving up fewer yards per punt return than the Gators (3.9 ypr). Florida K
Jonathan Phillips has been perfect thus far, hitting all nine of his field goal attempts with a long of 40 yards. Handling the kickoff duties for the Gators will be
Caleb Sturgis, who is averaging an impressive 65.1 yards per kick while notching 11 touchbacks in 71 kicks. P
Chas Henry is averaging 42.5 yards per punt and has placed 17 of his 34 punts inside the 20.
Brandon James and
Kehstan Moore will handle the kickoff returns for Florida. James is averaging 24.6 yards per kickoff return and is always a threat to break the long return. In fact, he's returned two punts for touchdowns this year. If a Florida State team that has done an adequate job of covering kickoffs and punts doesn't tackle well and stay in pursuit lanes, James could bust a long return.
Scouts' Edge
Florida State is coming off an impressive win over Maryland and should play with a great deal of emotion against its in-state rival, but emotion won't be enough to pull off the upset. Florida's offense has been playing at an elite level for over a month now, and the Gators simply have too many weapons for the Seminoles to keep pace. While Florida State's pass rush should get to Tebow at times, Florida's commitment to the ground game will help keep the Seminoles' defensive line on its heels and set up the play-action package. On the other side of the ball, a smothering Gators run defense will force Ponder to shoulder the bulk of the offensive load, and he hasn't shown he can carry the offense against a pass defense of this caliber. It all adds up to another lopsided victory for Florida.
Prediction: Gators 38, Seminoles 16