Latest Line:
7:05 pm (FOX) Pitchers RunLine Total MoneyLn
951 Florida Marlins J Beckett -R -220 -125 +112
952 Chicago Cubs C Zambrano -R -1½ +180 8 +105 -122
The first game of a series to me always has the feel of an under and why not look at the first round as all four first games were low scoring, but this game is a bit different. First they are playing in Wrigley, a small field with potential for the long ball with every batter. The pitching will drive the total in most baseball games so you have to start with a look at the starters. Zambrano and Beckett have both had flashes of brilliance this year and both pitched well in the playoff games so let’s examine them first.
Zanbrano: It was mentioned that Zambrano suffers from a dead arm after slowing down at the end of the season but you would be hard pressed to tell after his performance against the Braves in the post season. He did not get the win but he did pitch decent as he went five innings giving up just three runs and not walking anyone. However I am still a bit skeptical of him at this point. His last three outings overall have been bad just look at these numbers that stand out. 8.22 ERA, two homeruns, opposition hitting over .400 and giving up plenty of runs, and what makes this worse is that his last three starts were against the Braves and two bad teams in the Pirates and Reds. On a brighter note he has pitched well against the Marlins in his career at 1-1 with a low era of 1.59 but he has been on the good end of run support getting a combined 20 runs in three games. He has always pitched better when he gets run support which may not be available in Wrigley field where he was just 5-6 on the season.
Beckett: The marlins give the ball to beckett today and they will look for a performance similar to game one when he threw 7 innings of 2 hit one run ball in a close loss to the Giants. The dull spot in this game was that he walked five batters and that will give any opposition a chance to put runners on. In the last three game he has been superb with an era at 2.57 and not allowing a home run, but his record is just 1-2 as the fish have had a problem giving him runs at just over two runs a game. Beckett has also had problems on the road this season with a record of 2-5 and averaging seven runs against him, but that could be misleading. A break down of his last road games shows the exact opposite. He pitched great in SF, before that he went seven solid in a 1-0 loss to the Braves and before that a 5-0 shutout in Shea stadium. In his last eight games he has given up more than three runs just once and he has gone at least seven innings in all of the games except one.
With pitching out of the way we have to turn the scope to the rest of the angles that have to be covered in this game. The problem is there is no significant edge as both team are hitting almost identical averages in the last ten and the bullpens are almost identical as well with ERA’s ballooning over six.
I do think the edge goes to the Marlins on the base paths as they should have an easier time running against Zambrano and the Cubs, while the cubbies will have to go against Pudge who is the hottest player in the playoffs right now.
I do want to question the psyche of some of the Cubs players most importantly Sosa and Zambrano. Sosa is sick and tired of questions about his hitting in the post season. Sammy Sosa went 3-for-16 (.188) with no homers and one RBI against Atlanta. However, in six games against Florida this season -- including four Chicago wins -- Sosa hit three homers while batting .320 (8-for-25) and driving in six runs.
"I know what we've got," Sosa said. "I don't really like to talk about the Marlins so much because I don't know. But I know what we've got. I know we're ready and we're gonna be there Tuesday.
"I'm going to stay with my same plan. I don't want to go crazy, trying to hit home runs. It's not about home runs, it's about winning."
Zambrano has been questioned about his arm and his performance lately and it may be true he has not gone past 5 innings in his last three starts; this could be becoming a mental thing. ''He's had just a couple of bad starts all year. That's normal. Everybody knows he can do it. He knows it's important for us. We've got to keep going, for us and for the fans. He knows that.'' ''You can be nervous as long as you're not scared,'' Zambrano said. ''To be nervous, you can control. To be scared, it's hard to control. I feel relaxed now. It's another game.''
So a quick look at my analysis points to the Marlins tonight as the play.
I think the Cubs have the much better pitcher going tonight and they hitters who are in a groove right now led by Pudge, Cabrera, and Conine.
Going to pass on the total because I like the under but my examination has some conflicting numbers.
eX
7:05 pm (FOX) Pitchers RunLine Total MoneyLn
951 Florida Marlins J Beckett -R -220 -125 +112
952 Chicago Cubs C Zambrano -R -1½ +180 8 +105 -122
The first game of a series to me always has the feel of an under and why not look at the first round as all four first games were low scoring, but this game is a bit different. First they are playing in Wrigley, a small field with potential for the long ball with every batter. The pitching will drive the total in most baseball games so you have to start with a look at the starters. Zambrano and Beckett have both had flashes of brilliance this year and both pitched well in the playoff games so let’s examine them first.
Zanbrano: It was mentioned that Zambrano suffers from a dead arm after slowing down at the end of the season but you would be hard pressed to tell after his performance against the Braves in the post season. He did not get the win but he did pitch decent as he went five innings giving up just three runs and not walking anyone. However I am still a bit skeptical of him at this point. His last three outings overall have been bad just look at these numbers that stand out. 8.22 ERA, two homeruns, opposition hitting over .400 and giving up plenty of runs, and what makes this worse is that his last three starts were against the Braves and two bad teams in the Pirates and Reds. On a brighter note he has pitched well against the Marlins in his career at 1-1 with a low era of 1.59 but he has been on the good end of run support getting a combined 20 runs in three games. He has always pitched better when he gets run support which may not be available in Wrigley field where he was just 5-6 on the season.
Beckett: The marlins give the ball to beckett today and they will look for a performance similar to game one when he threw 7 innings of 2 hit one run ball in a close loss to the Giants. The dull spot in this game was that he walked five batters and that will give any opposition a chance to put runners on. In the last three game he has been superb with an era at 2.57 and not allowing a home run, but his record is just 1-2 as the fish have had a problem giving him runs at just over two runs a game. Beckett has also had problems on the road this season with a record of 2-5 and averaging seven runs against him, but that could be misleading. A break down of his last road games shows the exact opposite. He pitched great in SF, before that he went seven solid in a 1-0 loss to the Braves and before that a 5-0 shutout in Shea stadium. In his last eight games he has given up more than three runs just once and he has gone at least seven innings in all of the games except one.
With pitching out of the way we have to turn the scope to the rest of the angles that have to be covered in this game. The problem is there is no significant edge as both team are hitting almost identical averages in the last ten and the bullpens are almost identical as well with ERA’s ballooning over six.
I do think the edge goes to the Marlins on the base paths as they should have an easier time running against Zambrano and the Cubs, while the cubbies will have to go against Pudge who is the hottest player in the playoffs right now.
I do want to question the psyche of some of the Cubs players most importantly Sosa and Zambrano. Sosa is sick and tired of questions about his hitting in the post season. Sammy Sosa went 3-for-16 (.188) with no homers and one RBI against Atlanta. However, in six games against Florida this season -- including four Chicago wins -- Sosa hit three homers while batting .320 (8-for-25) and driving in six runs.
"I know what we've got," Sosa said. "I don't really like to talk about the Marlins so much because I don't know. But I know what we've got. I know we're ready and we're gonna be there Tuesday.
"I'm going to stay with my same plan. I don't want to go crazy, trying to hit home runs. It's not about home runs, it's about winning."
Zambrano has been questioned about his arm and his performance lately and it may be true he has not gone past 5 innings in his last three starts; this could be becoming a mental thing. ''He's had just a couple of bad starts all year. That's normal. Everybody knows he can do it. He knows it's important for us. We've got to keep going, for us and for the fans. He knows that.'' ''You can be nervous as long as you're not scared,'' Zambrano said. ''To be nervous, you can control. To be scared, it's hard to control. I feel relaxed now. It's another game.''
So a quick look at my analysis points to the Marlins tonight as the play.
I think the Cubs have the much better pitcher going tonight and they hitters who are in a groove right now led by Pudge, Cabrera, and Conine.
Going to pass on the total because I like the under but my examination has some conflicting numbers.
eX
