florida -27

[winddust]

Seems like everyone all over this. I can see the line going up but I have this game capped at 61-10 or 56-10. I am not sure how high it would go but I would easily lay 35. The key to betting a big favorite is does the coach have any problem pounding a team and is the backups for the favorite just as good or better than the other teams starter. I think here we have a yes in both cases. Myer loves to cover the number if he can. We all know that. Second u think June Jones left because he was unhappy. Well you could argue that but the cupboard is empty. Hawaii lost everything on offense. They lost a lot on d and this team gave up 41 to georgia in a bowl game with there best d ever. I think that florida will get a big lead in the first half and if the backups do come in they will be better than the starters of Hawaii. Hawaii will start a new qb and all new receivers in a tough offense to run and without june jones to run it. This is a total wipeout and the number will not be set high enough. There is no look ahead to Miami. They are terrible and it is not a big game for Florida. Love urban myer and love my money being behind him.

Also week 2 the texas tech raiders will wipe out Nevada. I have watched a lot of nevada games. They have no homefield advantage. The crowd is not big and the environment is not tough. What comes to mind is two games I remember in which big schools came to Nevada and they had a better team and got whacked at home. It looked like men against boys. Now the first is not a big school but it was a fresno st team that had carr and berrian. Berrian went 4 I think 800 all purpose yards and they scored at will. A few years back Washington State came to down and the team speed was just to much and whacked them. Nevada has nobody on defense that can match this speed of Crabtree and company. Crabtree will go for over 200 yards with 4 td's. I really think this defense has a chip on its shoulder and wants to prove something. They will swallow the nevada o. I think texas tech wins this by 30 my numbers have 56-17. Sooner bs I am shocked this is not a play on game for you. If the number is right this will be an easy winner. I love the fact they are playing at nevada it will keep the spread down. I will be at the game and be at the ticket window afterwards.

 

[GoSooners]

Windust...Is your capping method based on last year's numbers? Also with Texas Tech, they may very well blow Nevada out of the water..But history tells me TT isn't a great travelling team. And the amount of teams that Leach's teams have blown out on the road in his 9 years as head coach can be counted on one hand.

 

[winddust]

I also think they will not be able to post a high enough total on the arizona game. Idaho will score on the arizona d and arizona will score at will on idaho. The number worries me because I feel that the idaho offense can and will score on the zona d. Reminds me of the Louisville and troy st game last year in terms of the matchup on both sides of the ball.

 

[SoonerBS]

Seems like everyone all over this. I can see the line going up but I have this game capped at 61-10 or 56-10. I am not sure how high it would go but I would easily lay 35. The key to betting a big favorite is does the coach have any problem pounding a team and is the backups for the favorite just as good or better than the other teams starter. I think here we have a yes in both cases. Myer loves to cover the number if he can. We all know that. Second u think June Jones left because he was unhappy. Well you could argue that but the cupboard is empty. Hawaii lost everything on offense. They lost a lot on d and this team gave up 41 to georgia in a bowl game with there best d ever. I think that florida will get a big lead in the first half and if the backups do come in they will be better than the starters of Hawaii. Hawaii will start a new qb and all new receivers in a tough offense to run and without june jones to run it. This is a total wipeout and the number will not be set high enough. There is no look ahead to Miami. They are terrible and it is not a big game for Florida. Love urban myer and love my money being behind him.

Also week 2 the texas tech raiders will wipe out Nevada. I have watched a lot of nevada games. They have no homefield advantage. The crowd is not big and the environment is not tough. What comes to mind is two games I remember in which big schools came to Nevada and they had a better team and got whacked at home. It looked like men against boys. Now the first is not a big school but it was a fresno st team that had carr and berrian. Berrian went 4 I think 800 all purpose yards and they scored at will. A few years back Washington State came to down and the team speed was just to much and whacked them. Nevada has nobody on defense that can match this speed of Crabtree and company. Crabtree will go for over 200 yards with 4 td's. I really think this defense has a chip on its shoulder and wants to prove something. They will swallow the nevada o. I think texas tech wins this by 30 my numbers have 56-17. Sooner bs I am shocked this is not a play on game for you. If the number is right this will be an easy winner. I love the fact they are playing at nevada it will keep the spread down. I will be at the game and be at the ticket window afterwards.

There were several things that kept me off this game as a "play on" game for Texas Tech (I don't have it listed as a "play on" game for Nevada either, I'll have those write-ups out soon).

-- I have to really like the visiting team's chances at covering the line before I'll make a road game a "play on" game. I guess you can call it personal, but it seems like I every time I play on Texas Tech going on the road, I get burned.

-- Secondly, I need to see Tech's defense to believe that they really are the real deal. We all know they can score, but sometimes teams with good offenses can stay in the game by matching scores with Tech. I think Tech did well last year allowing a little less than 26 ppg, but they really need to get that down to 21 or less for me to start playing them on the road. Nevada should be able to score some points and you know they are going to be on an emotional high having Texas Tech come in to their place.

Now, having said all this, I DO have this game circled as a good OVER game depending on the TOTAL. I can very easily see 70 points or more scored in this game.

 

[winddust]

Sooner great point. However I do not consider any road game when looking at this game. I think when your looking at the b-12 a road game is tough in that conference for any team. I have seen great teams go on the road and get beat. What I do look at is the cupcakes texas tech pounds bigtime. I do not think we can compare a road game to Nevada as one to texas or oky st etc. Last year I would compare the two roads games at SMU and at Rice similar to the nevada game. Tech won 49-9 and they 59-24 the margin of victory 40 and 35! Now if we go back the previous year we see they play at Utep and at TCU. This may have been uteps best team ever and tcu had one hell of a team so I do not think we can compare those. I think if you look at the out of conference road games that year one would say texas tech has a chance to lose both games. This is not a tough game nor is it one they can lose. The type of offense they run Nevada does not have the defensive personal to handle nor the speed. I think it is just a bigtime mismatch and tech will have there way on offense. We will see in week1. The over on this game will probably be a play also depending on the number.

 

[winddust]

Sooner bs agree with you on the total for sure and ur points are valid. We will wait and see how high the number is but you are exactly right on the over I would agree. I agree that nevada will be on an emotional high but after they see the texas tech o drive down the field for a td with ease it will be gone for sure. They can not stop this offense! I agree 100 percent that the key is the tech d. I agree depending on the number the over will be the play. What do you think the number will be on the game?

 

[winddust]

Sooners bs I have read all of your play on games and I think u really know ur shit!

 

[winddust]

A very strong play is Rutgers -5. People actually think Fresno State has a chance against Rutgers. FSU will get ambushed! This Rutgers team is for real and I think they are a bit underrated at the moment. Besides Kansas they are the only team who bring back a significant amount of starters on both sides of the ball that ranked in the top 20 on offense and defense in the country. They are very good and Fresno State they have no defense. Rutgers will have no problems moving the ball. There pass d is greats so if the stop the run this will be very ugly. What game does fresno st have circled on there calender. Yep Wisconsin there next game on the schedule. That is the game they want and are focused on. Rutgers on primetime in these situation are money. Rutgers has a better offense and a better defense than FSU. No way FSU wins straight up. People that think that have lost their mind. I would give them a better chance at beating wisky than rutgers. I love this coach and the rutgers team. Think they roll on Monday night and win easily.

rutgers -5 will play -7 or less as a very big play. Love rutgers under the national spotlight at home anytime.

 

[everythingthatsgreen]

play the UF team total (anything under 49) and sit back with a 12pack of beer

 

[OTK]

The number will be over 30 by game day.

 

[MajorGCG]

Be sure you account for the fact that Meyer will play Brantley or Newton some early in the game and more than likely for most of the 4th if the score gets away from the Warriors. That could lead to a back door cover.

 

[Boxslayer]

Florida is a big square play because this June Jones thing was hyped out of proportion, Tebow is the returning Heisman favorite, everyone saw Hawaii get crushed on neutral site last year vs. Georgia, and now they have to play at the Swamp and FL laying huge chalk here on rusty opening weekend. Jones is a goner, and Meyer isnt going to take it out on the new guy.

Sure, Meyer wants to crush Hawaii, but the Gators defense is average, and the weakness is the PASS defense and that is Hawaii's strength. Hawaii is going to get a few points here (thinking 17-20) and if that happens, Florida is going to have a lot of pressure on them to score a bunch of points while rotating a lot of people into the game including new QBs.

Tebow is going to be their golden child this year, and after watching him break an arm vs. FSU, lose his shoulder vs. UGA, they are going to have him running out of bounds more, sliding more, sitting more when games are out of reach.

He won his Heisman, he doesnt have that need to chase stats and records anymore.

Gators will sacrifice points and blowing people out this year, if it means keeping Tebow a little more healthy and fresh. That spells trouble for this bet.

 

[SoonerBS]

Florida is a big square play because this June Jones thing was hyped out of proportion, Tebow is the returning Heisman favorite, everyone saw Hawaii get crushed on neutral site last year vs. Georgia, and now they have to play at the Swamp and FL laying huge chalk here on rusty opening weekend. Jones is a goner, and Meyer isnt going to take it out on the new guy.

Sure, Meyer wants to crush Hawaii, but the Gators defense is average, and the weakness is the PASS defense and that is Hawaii's strength. Hawaii is going to get a few points here (thinking 17-20) and if that happens, Florida is going to have a lot of pressure on them to score a bunch of points while rotating a lot of people into the game including new QBs.

Tebow is going to be their golden child this year, and after watching him break an arm vs. FSU, lose his shoulder vs. UGA, they are going to have him running out of bounds more, sliding more, sitting more when games are out of reach.

He won his Heisman, he doesnt have that need to chase stats and records anymore.

Gators will sacrifice points and blowing people out this year, if it means keeping Tebow a little more healthy and fresh. That spells trouble for this bet.

With June Jones gone, a new QB breaking in at Hawaii, and all of Hawaii's star receivers gone from last season, it's really hard for me to accept that Hawaii's passing game will be their strength. They will pass the ball, but nowhere in the numbers or strength that they did last season.

I think your point is well taken though on finding out how badly Florida wants to blowout Hawaii. That certainly needs to be looked into . . . .

 

[sdf]

Urban likes to cover the number for the alumni. He will have no issues with RUTSing Hawaii. He will have no problem keeping TT in the game until he has lots and lots of TDs. I will play UF for the first half as I expect them to get as big a lead as they can so they can bring in the backups in the second half

 

[akmaymn]

If it's -35 i would take hawaii, does anyone remember floridas defense vs. michigan, one of the weakest performances i've ever seen..

 

[sdf]

If it's -35 i would take hawaii, does anyone remember floridas defense vs. michigan, one of the weakest performances i've ever seen..

so, based on that ONE game, you think UF will play defense the exact same way?

 

[SoonerBS]

If it's -35 i would take hawaii, does anyone remember floridas defense vs. michigan, one of the weakest performances i've ever seen..

Don't take too much away from that game. Florida didn't play up to their usual standards while Michigan was playing on an incredible emotional high to win Lloyd Carr's final game for him.

 

[FairWarning]

With June Jones gone, a new QB breaking in at Hawaii, and all of Hawaii's star receivers gone from last season, it's really hard for me to accept that Hawaii's passing game will be their strength. They will pass the ball, but nowhere in the numbers or strength that they did last season.

I think your point is well taken though on finding out how badly Florida wants to blowout Hawaii. That certainly needs to be looked into . . . .

The first half line would be a strong play, Gators -points. They should put up 28-35 points.

 

[FairWarning]

If it's -35 i would take hawaii, does anyone remember floridas defense vs. michigan, one of the weakest performances i've ever seen..

And 5 players off the Michigan offense got drafted too. Have to give Mich some props there.

 

[MajorGCG]

I'd take UFs team total over before laying 4TDs.

That said, I do expect UFs defense to be improved.