five today w/analysis

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<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=500 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Yesterday</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">2</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">1</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">-0.59 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Last 30 Days</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">30</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">37</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">5</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+5.74 Units</TD></TR><TR><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=left width="50%">Season To Date (Since October 2008)</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">96</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">123</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="10%">6</TD><TD class=rs_value vAlign=top align=right width="20%">+0.98 Units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games include OT unless stated otherwise



Atlanta +2.35 over PHILADELPHIA (REG)

Interesting game in that the Flyers may already be on vacation, as this team has been off since the 16th and the all-star-break starts tomorrow. It’s very possible to catch the Flyers napping here, as four-day layoffs hurt more than they help and this four-day layoff comes the week of the all-star-break. In other words, this is the Flyers only game in an 11-day stretch and who can blame them if they pull a no-show here. Besides, the Thrashers are thriving right now with three wins in a row and over that stretch they scored 15 times, including four on the Habs last night and they rolled a seven on the defensive-minded Preds on Saturday. The Thrashers are suddenly looking a lot better and it coincides with the return of D Zach Bogosian, a first-rounder, who makes a difference out there. Anyway, the Thrashers are much fresher; they’re playing with some fire and the price here absolutely makes this one very worthwhile.
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St. Louis +2.90 over CHICAGO (REG)
If you’re a regular reader of this section then you know what I think about the Blur Notes. This team plays hard every single shift of every single minute and when they lose it’s not because of a lack of effort, it’s because they’re very often the second most talented team on the ice. The good news is the better team doesn’t always win and if they did, we’d all be rich. What I do know is that with a take-back of close to 3-1, you’re absolutely going to get your money’s worth and a strong effort from the visitor. They’re coming off an inspiring win in Boston, in which they trailed by two with about two minutes to go and scored with a second left in regulation to send it to extra time. Incidentally, they led 2-1 in that game with 4½ minutes to go when two minors were called and the Bruins scored on a 5-3 power-play and followed that up with another power-play goal. The Blue Notes out-shot the Bruins 20-6 in the third period. Prior to that game they played the Blackhawks and held Chicago to its lowest shot total of the year in a 2-1 loss. Chicago is 14-2-5 at the United Center this season, but lately the 'Hawks have had trouble scoring. They've netted just one goal in four of their last five games and Patrick Kane has not scored in his last 11 games. These are huge prices on teams that can win and these big favorites seem to be a little more vulnerable, as we saw last night, just before the break. Play: St. Louis +2.90 (Risking 2 units).
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Los Angeles +1.50 over COLORADO (REG)
You simply cannot lay this big a price with the Av’s because they lose as many games as they win and that fact alone makes them just so risky as a big favorite. The Kings played a solid game last night in Minnesota, although the Wild were gassed, but a single win does wonders for a team’s psyche. This is a talented Kings team that could have a decent second half but more than that, this is an overlay on a banged up Av’s team that has lost three of four and that has been favored just once in its last seven games. Incidentally, since Oct 30th, the Av’s have been favored by this much just two times, once against St. Louis on November 26 in a game they won 3-1 and on October 30 they were –1.68 over the Jackets and lost 4-2. More recently, however, they were –1.50 over Minnesota and lost 2-0. Again, this team just doesn’t warrant being this big a choice over anyone, and when they rarely are, they rarely win. Play: Los Angeles +1.50 (Risking 2 units).
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Montreal +1.14 over NEW JERSEY
This one is predicated on Carey Price being in net for the Habs and I’ll confirm as soon as I know. Halak was pulled last night and Price played 35 minutes and didn’t look rusty at all. Not sure if the Canadiens will ask price to step in again with a five-day break coming but if that was the case they probably wouldn’t have used him last night. What I do know is that Price gives the Habs a great chance every time he plays, as this guy just might be the best in the business. In addition, the Habs are scoring a ton of goals recently and when you give Price three goals in support, the Habs chances of winning increase by about 80% or more. In fact, Montreal has scored five goals or more in five of its last eight games. Furthermore, the Devils return home from a six-game trip and although they’re playing great, that angle is usually a pretty strong one. Again, this wager goes only if Price gets the call. Play: Montreal +1.25 (Risking 2 units).
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FLORIDA -½ +1.30 over Dallas (REG)
The Stars got off to a bad start and really have not recovered. They’ve showed signs of coming on a few times but every time they take a step forward they follow it up with two steps backwards. In fact, the Stars might be looking forward to the break more then any other team because of a frustrating and underachieving first half. Marty Turco is having a horrible year and boasts one of the worst save percentages in the business at .883. Meanwhile, The Panthers are another one of those teams that always gives you your money’s worth. They’re just a tough team to play and it doesn’t hurt that they haven’t lost in regulation in eight straight games, going 5-0-3 over that span. This is a case of one team looking to regroup and start over after the break against a team that will be looking to keep this thing going and finish off a great first half with another win over a very fragile enemy. Play: Florida -½ +1.30 (Risking 2 units).

 

6er

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flyers are like 30-2 against the trashers.

guess there due?

good luck today
 

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Dec 27, 2004
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thought we had em in the Canucks game yesterday.. San Jose poured it on in the 3rd and Canucks went in a total defensive shell for the 2nd half of the game. One bad faceoff in their own end with 40 seconds left and that did us in. Luongo looked good though, I think he is back. I still won a unit at +0.5 but hate to miss those bigger paydays with last minute goals, goodluck tonight.
 

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what was with Florida tonight? i just don't get the NHL anymore. they had no heart after the 1st period.
 

Formerly employed by Winnipeg Jets
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Feb 19, 2006
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Always a great read Sherwood. Intelligent write-ups that are usually very hard to argue with. 2-3 for the night but up about 1.5 units -- Can never argue with units in the plus category.

Keep up the great style of sharing your selections in a straight-forward reasoning as to why you can NOT bet the favourites every night in NHL.

Thanks
 

Worst NHL capper on the planet
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Any reasons why you posted MTL and FLA in this thread but used TB in the betam contest? Nice 3-1 +365 night in the betjam looks like you put the right one in and left the right two off in there...:103631605
 

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Sep 21, 2004
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In the BetJam I didn't want to lay 130 with FLA and at the time of the post I wasn't sure if Price was in net or not. So I went with my next pick...TB.

Too bad about Atlanta, they could've won too, as it was 3-3 with about 4 minutes to go.

See u guys after the break!!
 

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