Five Misconceptions About DFS/The Daily Fantasy Sports Industry

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Five Misconceptions About The Daily Fantasy Sports Industry You Are Seeing A Lot

Dustin Gouker, October 7, 2015
Legalsportsreport.com


As daily fantasy sports receives more mainstream attention, there is a lot of misinformationfloating around in the media on the internet.
If you’ve read stories about DFS at other outlets, or you have seen discussions oon social media, you may have run into some of these misconceptions about DFS:


“DFS is a lot like chess”

Truth-o-meter: Kind of, but not really

DraftKings CEO Jason Robins again made the comparison of daily fantasy sports to the game of chess in his remarks during a panel at the Global Gaming Expo.
Let’s start here: The “myth” portion isn’t that DFS involves skill. It clearly does.
While both chess and DFS involve skill, getting from one to the other is a pretty big leap. And the DFS-chess comparison, in particular, rankles people who believe DFS is more like gambling.ESPN’s David Purdum put it pretty succinctly:


David Payne Purdum
@DavidPurdum


Quit w/ these absurd comparisons. If I play chess vs. a high-level player, I lose every time. Not the case in DFS. https://twitter.com/howardstutz/status/649216672868511744 …
9:43 AM - 30 Sep 2015


To expand upon that idea, let’s take the idea of the top-ranked chess player in the world playing against a relative novice, and then imagine the same scenario in DFS, which would be a head-to-head match. A quick search of the internet does reveal that some
very smart people believe luck does play a role in chess.But for the sake of argument, let’s consider just the scenario of a chess grandmaster playing against someone who plays a little bit of chess (i.e. can move the pieces around the board correctly and has played the game at least a little bit few times, and can maybe beat a friend once in awhile). The outcome of this match? It’s a victory 100 percent of the time (or at least approaches that figure) for the grandmaster. (Win expectancy calculator here.)In DFS, let’s take the scenario of top-ranked pro “maxdalury” playing one-on-one against a newcomer to DFS: Someone who understands the basics of DFS and might look around at a site or two for some expert advice before setting his lineup. What is the outcome of this match?Usually, yes, it’s a win for maxdalury.Is he going to win 100% of contests in a head-to-head matches? Not even close. Putting an expectation on it might start at a floor of 60 percent, and could be much higher, up to 80 or 90 percent, depending on just how unskilled the opponent is and what sport is being played.But a 100 percent victory rate or anything close to it, over a large sample, is not in the realm of possibility.


“DFS is legal in 45 states”
Truth-o-meter: Maybe.

Mainstream media, since it has started covering the DFS space with more intensity in the wake of the DraftKings-FanDuel commercial blitz, has taken this line several times: DFS is legal in 45 states.In reality, this is at least possible. In truth, though, the “45 state” figure is linked to the states that DraftKings and FanDuel operate in. DraftKings and FanDuel stay out of five states where almost everyone believes DFS is illegal.(We can also note that some stories say DFS has been banned in five states; this isn’t true, either. State law in those states, when applied to DFS, makes it illegal for operators to accept real-money players. Montana does actually address fantasy sports.)Few states have laws expressly dealing with DFS, and its legality is usually predicated upon its status as a skill game. DraftKings and FanDuel believe they have a good legal argument to operate in the other 45 states. Some other sites? They don’t think so.At least some DFS operators stay out of Michigan, Arkansas, Delaware and Tennessee. This is due to the fact that gaming law in those states is at least gray in terms of whether DFS is legal.A number of lawyers believe DFS would not hold up to a legal challenge in some states. (For a more nuanced look at the legality of DFS, read this article.)Could DFS be legal in 45 states? Sure. But to say it’s legal in 45 states, beyond a shadow of a doubt, is not accurate. There’s also the issue that not all fantasy sports are created equal, and calling a game “fantasy sports” does not equate to a free pass under the law. Which brings us to….

“Federal law says daily fantasy sports is a skill game”
Truth-o-meter: False.

The other legal matter that the media seems to gloss over, and that many in the DFS industry seem to rely upon, is the carveout for daily fantasy sports that exists in federal law, via theUnlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act. We’ve seen a lot of references to fantasy sports being called a skill game at the federal level.
What the UIGEA actually says is that “participation in any fantasy or simulation sports game” is exempted from being called a “bet or wager” as long as it “meets the following conditions.” One of those conditions:

(II) All winning outcomes reflect the relative knowledge and skill of the participants and are determined predominantly by accumulated statistical results of the performance of individuals (athletes in the case of sports events) in multiple real-world sporting or other events.

No reading of the UIGEA can lead one to believe that the law expressly says that fantasy sports are a skill game. More simply, UIGEA speaks to the matter of “if” DFS contests involve skill, not “because” they involve skill.
The UIGEA, in essence, just passes the buck to the states. Are DFS contests likely to be considered a skill game in a lot of states? Definitely. Federal law, however, says nothing about whether a DFS contest is actually a game of skill. It just allows them to be categorized as such by states.

“DFS being like the stock market is a reason to consider it ‘not gambling’ “
Truth-o-meter: False

Like equating DFS to chess, we’ve seen the analogy to the stock market a lot, including from Robins. And it’s a fair one, in reality: There is a lot of skill and some luck involved in making money on the stock market.
But the argument is taken a step further by some. We’ve seen a version of this statement, several times on social media: “If you say DFS is gambling, then you have to ban stock trading because it’s the same thing.”
No, really, you don’t. In a lot of states, securities trading is specifically exempted from gambling laws precisely because it resembles gambling (for example: Ohio). As we went over above, DFS is usually not specifically exempted at the state level. (And, as an interesting side note, securities trading is also mentioned/exempted from the UIGEA, just like fantasy sports.)
On the same topic, many reports have headlines that basically say “insider trading” is going on at DraftKings and FanDuel in the online going DraftKings leak scandal. So far, there is no hard evidence of this. Is it possible in an unregulated environment, without knowing what kind of protections the sites have? Sure. But that’s a far cry from where we stand today, which is uncertainty.


“DFS sites take all the same precautions as legal, regulated online gambling sites”
Truth-o-meter: We don’t know, but probably not

There’s generally a tacit belief that there are a lot of consumer protections at DFS sites.
But could it possibly rise to the level that is expected of regulated online gambling and poker operations in the United States, at every site, if it’s not required? The truth is, we have very little idea what goes at most DFS sites on this front; the most recent example is the DraftKings lineup leak, which you can read about here.
On the positive side of the matter, DraftKings has qualified for a gaming license in the United Kingdom. Seth Young, COO of Star Fantasy Leagues, has on multiple occasions listed the protections offered at his site, which would likely pass muster in a regulated environment.
At the same time, Robins had a pretty good chance to address consumer protections when asked at G2E last week, and didn’t:


Legal Sports Report @LSPReport

Robins does not list any responsible gaming tools, AML, id verification, or other common safeguards at regulated sites. #G2E2015




Legal Sports Report @LSPReport

Missed opportunity for DraftKings. They had the chance to show that this is a tightly controlled product that doesn't need regs. #G2E2015








A DFS site should want to scream from the rooftops that it’s doing all of the above, in today’s climate.

But there are no real standards that DFS sites operating in North America are beholden to on this front, since there is no regulation at the state or federal level.
DFS sites, to be a part of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, must agree to the Paid Entry Contest Operator Charter. That document does mention consumer protections, but does not include a lot of detail about how those protections must be satisfied:

Know Your Customer
The signatory companies will put measures in place to ensure that their paying customers:
• Reside only in states in which the signatory companies, after seeking legal advice, have chosen to take paid entrants for their games; and
• Are of the required minimum age for that state, province or country.

Coding, Fraud and Anti-Money Laundering
The signatory company will use an appropriate merchant category code for credit card processing and institute adequate fraud and anti-money laundering checks in handling player funds.
The only known penalty for not following the charter? Losing membership in the FSTA. The FSTA is not going to great lengths to verify compliance, and it is certainly not set up to be an enforcement arm.
For comparison’s sake, here is a list of things that New Jersey online gambling sites require upon sign-up, which generally aren’t required at a DFS site upon sign-up:


  • Valid physical address
  • Answers to security questions
  • Proof of identity, typically either the last four digits of a user’s Social Security number, a full Social Security number or information akin to what a financial institution may ask when opening an account
Do DFS sites have protections in place? Sure. But it’s simply hard to say the protections are as solid as what is going on at regulated gambling sites.
 

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It's still gambling but legal and it's why the NFL loves it so it can make money from gambling revenue finally
 

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I think D/K makes around $ 225,000 on that one contest.

The milly maker currently takes in 8, pays out 7. So 12.5% rake.

Last year it used to overlay all the time but now it doesn't seem to be. I think DK wants to start showing more revenue growth because they possibly want to IPO sooner than later so less overlay on contests like that.

If anyone wants to play a big GPP contest with overlay rather than pay rake. You could give Yahoo a try. The last 4 weeks they paid out 1M in their big contest while only taking in around 750-800k. This week they finally cut the GPP size but I still think there is a decent chance it goes off rake free.


Also lol @ Robins using the chess analogy. Obviously what he is really looking for is to compare it to poker as a game of skill, but he can't because poker is illegal too so he has to watch himself.
 

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Would you say the top fantasy earners like the guy "Maxdalury" have a bigger edge than the sharpest sports bettors. Who wins on a more consistent basis and suffers smaller downswings. Other considerations are the difficulty in wagering offshore, possibly not getting paid or wagering with illegal bookmakers and once again possibly getting stiffed. Let's take offshore and street guys out of the equation. You have a group of wise guys who just wager in Vegas vs a group of fantasy geeks who wager on SD,DK, Yahoo or wherever. After reading the Bloomberg article it seems the DFS are trying to level the playing field a bit. Limit entries per person is meaningless because you could use your mother, your brother ect. if you want to place more entries. There are also ways around data mining as poker players are still using certain banned software by hiding it from the poker sites. Developing your own software like "Maxdalury" is the way to go. There is a player in Las Vegas who is the sharpest baseball bettor in the world who developed a program on wagering on baseball which absolutely destroyed the books. Obviously like everyone else the DFS sites don't want all the money ending up in the hands of a few players.
 

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Would you say the top fantasy earners like the guy "Maxdalury" have a bigger edge than the sharpest sports bettors. Who wins on a more consistent basis and suffers smaller downswings. Other considerations are the difficulty in wagering offshore, possibly not getting paid or wagering with illegal bookmakers and once again possibly getting stiffed. Let's take offshore and street guys out of the equation. You have a group of wise guys who just wager in Vegas vs a group of fantasy geeks who wager on SD,DK, Yahoo or wherever. After reading the Bloomberg article it seems the DFS are trying to level the playing field a bit. Limit entries per person is meaningless because you could use your mother, your brother ect. if you want to place more entries. There are also ways around data mining as poker players are still using certain banned software by hiding it from the poker sites. Developing your own software like "Maxdalury" is the way to go. There is a player in Las Vegas who is the sharpest baseball bettor in the world who developed a program on wagering on baseball which absolutely destroyed the books. Obviously like everyone else the DFS sites don't want all the money ending up in the hands of a few players.

Good question.
That is obviously really tough to say because these aren't public companies where we have their financials infront of us to analyze. The answer is likely very fluid.

Right now with all the $ going into DFS advertising, the growth of GPPs, his program/script allowing him to diversify action. I would have to say that Max deals with less variance and a better ROI than even the best sports bettors. I think he can scale higher with less headaches. The sites are looking for guys like him to drive action, grow prize pools and create liquidity so therefore he isn't getting limited anytime soon.

Now in a few years when the sites have really scaled out, they won't need a Max as much so perhaps you limit his entries per buy-in, limit how many GPPs people can join and he then can't get 150-200k a day up. Maybe you can't get that much up then but only 1/3rd of that? I'm not exactly sure how they will handle it but I do know they are aware of protecting the ecosystem long-term.

I'm not sure when that day will but I would say right now is the best time for him to capitalize on being #1.

re: mother/brother.....You can do that but the sites do have pretty good fraud prevention and if you are a Max type that is a lot to risk. You got 800k in your account and they catch you, then you check the site and you have $0, what are you gonna do? What is your recourse?
Not to mention the tax headache of trusting someone with that type of $ come tax time, etc. Not to mention they can monitor lineups, etc. It's not impossible to circumvent of course, but there is risk to it.
 

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it's interesting seeing people's reaction lately to all this DFS news. It seems like most people want these sites to fail, which kind of boggles my mind. There is a lot of jealously out there, and people who have been losing seem to now want to justify their own losses as not their fault. PFT ran an article today about a Florida Grand Jury exploring the legality of these sites, and here are some of the top comments:


I don’t agree that DFS is a skill contest. I’m very good at re-draft fantasy football (at least in my circle of friends & players), consistently ranking in the top 3 most seasons. I’m usually the “guy to beat” in my leagues.
I gotta say it: I suck at DFS. You can throw your FF “skills” out the window. DFS is about randomly picking those one or two players that blow up any given week unexpectedly. It’s like betting on a weak horse or dog and hoping they win. It’s more about betting on long shots than anything. That’s gambling, not skill.


DFS is a just a new method to swindle money out of people. Listen, in these DFS you’re playing against professionals who have 1000+ plus teams going at a time, they also have teams in the same leagues. You’re getting scammed if you’re playing. #FACT
DFS is a ripoff. It was shown that 1.4% of the players win 90% of the money.
How the heck this is legal but online Poker isn’t just boggles my mind. Poker is way more a “skill” game than DFS.




 

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