i may be off on my assumptions but I find it very hard to believe they would be that high of favorites considering chicago is -450 at -9 and I dont see it being much higher.
ALSO there is a possibility that GB goes into Seattle and then I have no idea what line will be.. but at some point seattle has to gain some respect IF they knock off chicago and had new orleans gone before.
imo they drop vs chicago anyway.. hence why i say to hedge. but its hindsight is all.
-murph
You can use the spread/ML converter at SBR if you want to get an idea of what ML would be attached to a pointspread. Gives you a good starting point. If Atlanta takes care of business against Pack they would be considered a tougher place to play than Chicago. So it would be at least 10 and probably more like 12 to 13 point spread. If Packers win you are right however that Seattle would be much less of an underdog Murph.
I put 60 bucks on the hawks to win the SB 2 weeks ago when they were +20,000
Do a search on my post and you will find it in the NFL fourm.
Anyhow, I now have 16,000 if the hawks win the SB.
The way I have done this so far is to bet a series of 3 team 10 pt teasers with open legs.
Right now i have 1400 risk to win 1625 and the bears @ pk em vs the Hawks. That teaser is compleate and the hawks/bears game is the last leg.
I have another 2100 to win 2375 with the first leg won (Auburn) and the Bears/Hawks as the 2nd leg, I have the Bears as pk. If the Hawks do win out right this weekend, I'll fill in that last leg with either GB or Atlanta.
I then have a 3rd teaser with the first leg as the Bears + 10 which makes them Pk em, and the other 2 legs are open. I'll fill the 2nd leg with either Gb or Atlanta, and have the last leg open for the SB to use how ever I want. That is for 2200 to win 2450.
I spent quite a bit of time looking at this, and I think it was my best bet.
If the hawks make it to the SB I'll be down 5700 in teasers, but have almost 10k to work with in the SB.
Do a search on my post and you will find it in the NFL fourm.
Anyhow, I now have 16,000 if the hawks win the SB.
The way I have done this so far is to bet a series of 3 team 10 pt teasers with open legs.
Right now i have 1400 risk to win 1625 and the bears @ pk em vs the Hawks. That teaser is compleate and the hawks/bears game is the last leg.
I have another 2100 to win 2375 with the first leg won (Auburn) and the Bears/Hawks as the 2nd leg, I have the Bears as pk. If the Hawks do win out right this weekend, I'll fill in that last leg with either GB or Atlanta.
I then have a 3rd teaser with the first leg as the Bears + 10 which makes them Pk em, and the other 2 legs are open. I'll fill the 2nd leg with either Gb or Atlanta, and have the last leg open for the SB to use how ever I want. That is for 2200 to win 2450.
I spent quite a bit of time looking at this, and I think it was my best bet.
If the hawks make it to the SB I'll be down 5700 in teasers, but have almost 10k to work with in the SB.
What's very interesting is that I bought some Seattle futures at the Las Vegas Hilton just before last weekends games and got Seattle at 300/1 to win the SB and 100/1 to win the NFC. That seemed like a decent wager for a team that was hosting the first round game and could possibly be hosting the NFC Championship games if thing break their way like GB beating Atlanta. Since GB is only a 2 1/2 point dog... This obviously could easily happen.
Yes 3 legs.
Now keep in mind, I filled my 1st legs with Aunburn getting ready for this hedge.
So I use the 2nd leg for the Bears. If the the Hawks cover, I use the 3rd leg for either GB or Atlanta.
Also put in ANOTHER 10 pt teaser with the Bears as the 1st leg. this leaves 2 slots for NFC title game and SB if needed.
Now keep in mind, I filled my 1st legs with Aunburn getting ready for this hedge.
So I use the 2nd leg for the Bears. If the the Hawks cover, I use the 3rd leg for either GB or Atlanta.
Also put in ANOTHER 10 pt teaser with the Bears as the 1st leg. this leaves 2 slots for NFC title game and SB if needed.
what always seems to happen in threads like this is
1) the poster asks a question about his options
2) the responders give many possible hedging
alternatives
3) the original poster shows that he had basically
already decided on what to do and will do it
unless he his strategy is proclaimed by most
to be incredibly stupid.
let me tell you the correct answer.
THERE IS NO CORRECT ANSWER!!
everyone must do what they feel comfortable
with that's in their best financial interest and
within their tolerance for risk. there is no one size fits all
for hedging and locking in equity. i have 2 friends.
they both play futures fairly large and try to get
good value. both are sharp, well-financed, and
very experienced gamblers. one is a nit. the moment
he senses any value on the buyback side, he takes it
and locks in his profit. he would NEVER gamble a future
to get a 100% win or 100% loss. the other friend ends
up with some great future positions in every sport including
horse racing. he always talks about hedging these huge
positions and locking in a profit or at least mimimizing
his loss. he never does. it's not his style nor in his nature
to hedge even though he talks about every time. who is right?
they both are. they are gambling in the way they feel most
comfortable.
red eye, just do what you feel comfortable with. you are in
great position and i hope however you proceed that it
works out for you.
1) the poster asks a question about his options
2) the responders give many possible hedging
alternatives
3) the original poster shows that he had basically
already decided on what to do and will do it
unless he his strategy is proclaimed by most
to be incredibly stupid.
let me tell you the correct answer.
THERE IS NO CORRECT ANSWER!!
everyone must do what they feel comfortable
with that's in their best financial interest and
within their tolerance for risk. there is no one size fits all
for hedging and locking in equity. i have 2 friends.
they both play futures fairly large and try to get
good value. both are sharp, well-financed, and
very experienced gamblers. one is a nit. the moment
he senses any value on the buyback side, he takes it
and locks in his profit. he would NEVER gamble a future
to get a 100% win or 100% loss. the other friend ends
up with some great future positions in every sport including
horse racing. he always talks about hedging these huge
positions and locking in a profit or at least mimimizing
his loss. he never does. it's not his style nor in his nature
to hedge even though he talks about every time. who is right?
they both are. they are gambling in the way they feel most
comfortable.
red eye, just do what you feel comfortable with. you are in
great position and i hope however you proceed that it
works out for you.
Can't disagree with anything your saying here. I am the guy you are referring to that will make a profit on a good future almost everytime. With that being said, there are some sharp posters in here that I don't mind throwing their 2 cents in, Its possible for me to overlook a good option.
