First time really trying to follow Percentage bet on a team and Line Movement ?

[Kaboom]

Example

Duke 83 % of the bets ...yet line has gone from Duke -7 to Duke - 5 .... with the line drop why wouldn't Wake Forest have the Percentage in their favor ... ???

Navy 66% ...line Navy -6 to -4 .... same as above

NC 58 % ...line NC - 10 to 7 1/2

Boise St 61 % ...line Boise St - 11 to - 10

UCLA 64 % ...line UCLA - 27 1/2 to - 26 ....

Which way do most of you guys lean ??? The Fav or Dog ?


Same with the Over / Under Action ....


Anyone ?

 

[tsm123]

Following line movement can be costly. Very costly. You need to know what matchups to follow and why and
this is not an easy thing to do. Just seeing a disparity does not mean much...if anything.
Sometimes you win, most times you lose.
You need to look at other factors, but the linesmaker is very, very good at hiding what he does not
want you to know. There are clues, but they are very subtle and most 'cappers just disregard them altogether.
You need to be savvy, very savvy, and that usually comes with age and experience.
In determining a probable side, line movement is a very minor consideration.

 

[Kaboom]

Following line movement can be costly. Very costly. You need to know what matchups to follow and why and
this is not an easy thing to do. Just seeing a disparity does not mean much...if anything.
Sometimes you win, most times you lose.
You need to look at other factors, but the linesmaker is very, very good at hiding what he does not
want you to know. There are clues, but they are very subtle and most 'cappers just disregard them altogether.
You need to be savvy, very savvy, and that usually comes with age and experience.
In determining a probable side, line movement is a very minor consideration.

Thank you bro for the input ... Never really followed line movement and percentages .... so it sounds like I can disregard them , instead of looking for an angle with them ? ....Interesting ....

 

[tsm123]

Here's a tip:

Look for handicappers that are age fifty or older.
THEY DO NOT ALWAYS WIN, BUT they have the experience.
They also have the temperament.
They're disciplined enough to stay away from MOST of the sophomore mistakes.
So start asking, "Who's fifty or older?" and see how they do.

 

[Kaboom]

Here's a tip:

Look for handicappers that are age fifty or older.
THEY DO NOT ALWAYS WIN, BUT they have the experience.
They also have the temperament.
They're disciplined enough to stay away from MOST of the sophomore mistakes.
So start asking, "Who's fifty or older?" and see how they do.

I qualify then .... always trying to improve my angles , is all ... I'm 55 ... doing this for 35 years ... I'm a nickle and dimer that enjoys plenty of action ...

 

[Greenbacks]

Example

Duke 83 % of the bets ...yet line has gone from Duke -7 to Duke - 5 .... with the line drop why wouldn't Wake Forest have the Percentage in their favor ... ???

Navy 66% ...line Navy -6 to -4 .... same as above

NC 58 % ...line NC - 10 to 7 1/2

Boise St 61 % ...line Boise St - 11 to - 10

UCLA 64 % ...line UCLA - 27 1/2 to - 26 ....

Which way do most of you guys lean ??? The Fav or Dog ?


Same with the Over / Under Action ....


Anyone ?

You have a good angle my friend......When you see a big public play like Navy and the line drops like it did it`s worth a shot.

I`m on Uconn because of the line drop.

Good luck!

 

[Kaboom]

You have a good angle my friend......When you see a big public play like Navy and the line drops like it did it`s worth a shot.

I`m on Uconn because of the line drop.

Good luck!

Conflicting reports ... so everyone may few this angle , differently ???

So Greenbacks ... you are saying my angle is solid ?

Would you play the rest of the dogs then , as well ?

NC 58 % ...line NC - 10 to 7 1/2

Boise St 61 % ...line Boise St - 11 to - 10

UCLA 64 % ...line UCLA - 27 1/2 to - 26 ....


Appreciate your input ...thank you !

 

[ChugsMcGee]

This is a popular angle to follow...and there is something to the movement but chasing steam is dangerous. Using the NC line above, there's a lot more value at +10 for Illinois. Once off of 10, it doesn't take as much money to move it past 9 and 8, but will take another big move to get it to 7. Books are going to be leary moving to or beyond the 7 because they are just setting themselves up for a middle from those that got +10+. Many top bettors out their aren't necessarily betting "teams", they are betting numbers. And getting the best of the number consistently is really the key.

So some group or just all initial bets hits the +10 it moves to 9.5/9 and everybody says "ooo, reverse line movement" and chases the steam to push it lower. Doesn't mean Illinois still won't cover or win straight up, but everybody that followed got less value than those that got the key number of 10.

Also, remember that the percentage that your looking at is a percentage of bets not money placed(and often times the percentage you see is just a poll of users on their specific site, not necessarily at a specific book.) Similar to a poll in politics, in can give you a snapshot of where the public is at but can also be misleading.

It's never bad to track any info, but always thread lightly with the blind follow.

 

[Kaboom]

This is a popular angle to follow...and there is something to the movement but chasing steam is dangerous. Using the NC line above, there's a lot more value at +10 for Illinois. Once off of 10, it doesn't take as much money to move it past 9 and 8, but will take another big move to get it to 7. Books are going to be leary moving to or beyond the 7 because they are just setting themselves up for a middle from those that got +10+. Many top bettors out their aren't necessarily betting "teams", they are betting numbers. And getting the best of the number consistently is really the key.

So some group or just all initial bets hits the +10 it moves to 9.5/9 and everybody says "ooo, reverse line movement" and chases the steam to push it lower. Doesn't mean Illinois still won't cover or win straight up, but everybody that followed got less value than those that got the key number of 10.

Also, remember that the percentage that your looking at is a percentage of bets not money placed(and often times the percentage you see is just a poll of users on their specific site, not necessarily at a specific book.) Similar to a poll in politics, in can give you a snapshot of where the public is at but can also be misleading.

It's never bad to track any info, but always thread lightly with the blind follow.

Great stuff bro ... make sense ...thank you ... So don't take too much into the moves and percentages because there may be many reasons why the move took place in the first place , right ?

 

[ChugsMcGee]

Well...there can be value in all information, it's just determining what that information means that is the issue (assuming no injury/suspension contributed to any move). There's no blanket statement that can be given. That info isn't the holy grail but it's also not complete horseshit. There's nothing wrong with tracking or using that as a tool , or follow all along with Manbearpig's Reverse Line Movement thread.

I use it as a tool, a piece of the puzzle. If you see 80% on that "why the hell are they only a -3 favorite" team and the line opened and stayed at -3, I take that as sign that the books think the line is right, and if they move to 3.5 they think they're going to get hammered the other way...and that it's probably a spot to take the points or stay away.

 

[alkimyst]

RLM uses to be a fantastic tool. Seems like there are often many head fakes nowadays since much of the action is through PPH services and offshore books. So many shops simply ghost their lines off of other books that very often the early move are just set ups to go the other way later in the week. Tread lightly and best of luck!!

 

[3pointdog]

navy drop is probably because their QB is now out for the season (as of 9/5)... 2nd stringer starting against UConn

 

[Kaboom]

Example ... The Over Percentage 84 % of the money CM / OK ST yet line is dropping .... 64 1/2 to 61 1/2 ....

You look Over or Under ....what do you guys do ?

 

[tsm123]

Example ... The Over Percentage 84 % of the money CM / OK ST yet line is dropping .... 64 1/2 to 61 1/2 ....

You look Over or Under ....what do you guys do ?

It "appears" the Linesmaker is baiting the over players. Just based on your stats, I think under is the probable side. THIS IS JUST MY OPINION. If you wager the under and the total goes over by 30 points, don't blame me. You asked what I thought. I did not do well in school.

 

[hammer1]

Here's a tip:

Look for handicappers that are age fifty or older.
THEY DO NOT ALWAYS WIN, BUT they have the experience.
They also have the temperament.
They're disciplined enough to stay away from MOST of the sophomore mistakes.
So start asking, "Who's fifty or older?" and see how they do.

xperince

No shit.. No sub fer expérience in reading lines Ya see shit fer 30 years and ya get it right..These days no body wants to study and werk at this Gimme a trend ...gimme a stat Team A is 11 -1 on day my GF farts or Troll away.... Give ya 1 biggie If the move is illogical Heed it.... Ex Army vs Temple Blowout Wrongo 2 - 10 or so Army wins out right.